Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Arcanaut
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
| Last | Change | Percent | |
| S&P Futures | 1684.9 | -3.9 | -0.23% |
| Eurostoxx Index | 2858.6 | -3.5 | -0.12% |
| Oil (WTI) | 107.6 | -1.0 | -0.89% |
| LIBOR | 0.254 | -0.001 | -0.20% |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 81.46 | -0.030 | -0.04% |
| 10 Year Govt Bond Yield | 2.88% | -0.03% | |
| Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA | 103.7 | 0.0 | |
| Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA | 102.6 | 0.1 | |
| RPX Composite Real Estate Index | 200.7 | -0.2 | |
| BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage | 4.55 |
Markets are flattish on no real news. Bonds and MBS are up small. Liquidity should be light due to the Jewish holiday. Today is the last big data day before the FOMC meeting.
Mohammed El-Arian of PIMCO says the Fed is tapering to head off excessive risk taking. PIMCO is forecasting a “taper-lite” announcement of $10 billion in Treasuries, which would mean the Fed will continue to purchase MBS at its current rate. Given that foreigners have been net sellers of MBS and REITs have been de-leveraging (in other words, they have been net sellers too), it makes you wonder where the replacement for the Fed’s buying will come from. What does that mean for your average mortgage banker? If TBAs are weak (bond prices falling), then mortgage rates will be higher.
Twitter announced its IPO in 140 characters or less: “We confidentially submitted an S-1 to the SEC for a planned IPO. This Tweet does not constitute an offer of any securities for sale.” Note that roughly half of the characters are legal disclaimer. Some things never change.
The Producer Price Index came in flat ex food and energy, showing that there is no inflation at the wholesale level. Inflation has been figuring into the Fed’s calculus for a while now, primarily on the downside. They desperately want to create a little inflation. 3% inflation and 3% wage growth feels a lot better to the average American than no inflation and no wage growth does.
Retail sales came in lower than expected, .2% on the headline number, and the same for the control group. Looks like back-to-school sales were disappointing, which bodes ill for the holiday shopping season. Since consumption is roughly 70% of the US economy, it doesn’t bode will for the 2H recovery we are supposed to be seeing according to Fed forecasts.
It will be Summers, at least according to the Nikkei newspaper. Supposedly this will be announced next week sometime. Summers would mean a quicker withdrawal of quantitative easing and a more vocal support of fiscal measures to stimulate the economy. The knives are out for Summers on the Left.
Filed under: Morning Report |
All Things in Moderation 
Worth a read:
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/09/12/the-rise-of-the-new-new-left.html
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jnc:
From your link, a quote from Warren:
“Wall Street CEOs—the same ones who wrecked our economy and destroyed millions of jobs—[who] still strut around Congress, no shame, demanding favors, and acting like we should thank them.”
Or, in other words, acting like politicians.
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So, why doesn’t she comment on why a Democratic Administration do anything to prosecute these evil, tricking criminals?
Also, would she back the President on bombing brown people?
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“So, why doesn’t she comment on why a Democratic Administration do anything to prosecute these evil, tricking criminals?”
There is probably a lot of government activism that Democratic politicians would like to keep away from a discovery request.
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Brent;
There is probably a lot of government activism that Democratic politicians would like to keep away from a discovery request.
No doubt. Warren is just doing the time-honored populist demagogue thing. One of the reasons her schtick is the biggest hit with the youngsters is probably because that’s the demographic that is still naive enough to fall for it. I still shake my head at the shamelessness (it couldn’t have been stupidity, could it?) of her sponsoring a bill to set student loan rates at the same level as government bonds.
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Unpossible!
Vulture Capitalists!
Somalia!
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<bI still shake my head at the shamelessness (it couldn’t have been stupidity, could it?) of her sponsoring a bill to set student loan rates at the same level as government bonds.
Don’t you know some things are too important to be determined by a mere market? And of course the millenials are liberal – most people are when they are young and they don’t have to pay for it. The baby boomers were the same way until they started making some cash.
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The baby boomers were the same way until they started making some cash.
Hey, I’m a boomer, make cash and am still a liberal.
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“Troll McWingnut or George, whichever, on September 13, 2013 at 10:44 am said:
So, why doesn’t she comment on why a Democratic Administration do anything to prosecute these evil, tricking criminals?”
She does, frequently.
Warren is famous for giving Democratic administration members a hard time. See her oversight hearings of both Geithner and the recent SEC ones.
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This one is just classic. California has passed a bill allowing illegal immigrants to obtain California drivers licenses. However….
The law stipulates that illegal immigrants’ licenses should have a feature denoting their immigration status, but also includes provisions to guard against discrimination of such people, including when they’re applying for housing and employment.
By law, employers cannot process payroll checks for employees who lack a valid Social Security number. Yet the law’s anti-discrimination measures make it illegal for an employer to refuse to hire an illegal immigrant on the basis of his having an ID denoting illegal status, even though it would reasonably follow that such a person has a fake Social Security number or none at all. “As an employer, if they produce this driver’s license, what am I supposed to do?” asked Republican assemblyman Curt Hagman.
I’ve said this before, but it just gets more and more apparent…we live in twilight zone times.
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I was looking for something, elusive still, to help me figure out the license bill Scott is referencing above and found this at the LA Times. There’s not a lot of substance but I think it’s an interesting comparison between Brown and Christie and their governing styles and personalities.
I believe the bill is similar to one D’s have tried to pass for years and basically it shouldn’t affect employment just driving and insurance. If you give an employer your license because they ask for it and it shows you’re illegal, you won’t get that job. Most people who hire illegals won’t be asking for a DL. In a state with so many illegals it’s a huge problem to have unlicensed/uninsured motorists on the road. Employment is an entirely different issue obviously and needs to be addressed separately………………………..uhhhh, by immigration reform hopefully.
Otherwise, I suppose it’s just another Twilight Zone episode for your entertainment brought to you by the “directors” of CA. Go Brown.
http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/politicsnow/la-pn-chris-christie-jerry-brown-politics-20130913,0,7301548.story
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It’s official ..it’s fear
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2013/09/13/rand-paul-isnt-going-anywhere-in-2016/
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Well, no one knows the GOP like the assholes at the Plumline.
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The Salon piece was just absurd as a guide to libertarians. Still, it’s nice to be the boogeyman.
Having said that, I don’t expect Rand Paul to be the nominee. My money would be on Chris Christie.
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For some reason people were talking about Warren today and whether or not she’ll have Obama’s back if he picks Summers at the Fed.
Reuters says no. With Tester we’re up to four.
Colleagues of Warren, a Democrat of Massachusetts, expect her to vote against Summers if he is nominated, sources familiar with the matter said. The sources said she has expressed concerns about Summers to her colleagues and had raised them with people in the White House. She has stayed silent out of respect for Obama.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/13/us-usa-fed-summers-tester-idUSBRE98C0W620130913
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Yellen would be Greenspan III. She is a little more dovish than Bernanke, but the difference is so small, most people wouldn’t even notice. I think the first choice is Summers, because he would be a vocal supporter of and add intellectual heft to the argument that we need a New Deal II to get the economy moving. Yellen is steeped in the culture of a non-political Fed and probably views how to fiscally stimulate the economy as something best left to Congress and the President to hammer out.
So I find it fascinating that the Left is bucking Summers because he is more likely to help them get what they want. It goes to show that crimes of political correctness are the highest crimes there are to the Left.
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It goes to show that crimes of political correctness are the highest crimes there are to the Left.
Serious question, can one cleanse oneself of a crime? Is there anything Summers could say or do that would bring about forgiveness?
It’s not like I give a shit who gets the Fed job, I’m just fascinated by the anti-Summers attitude on the left and wonder what he could do to be forgiven
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Is all of this untrue Brent?
McWing………………he could retire.
The letter, which is still circulating among Democrats, lauded Ms. Yellen’s prescience in identifying early on in the financial crisis the threats posed by the run-up in housing prices and the shadow-banking sector, the untraditional corners of the financial system which helped spur the economic meltdown. As early as 2007, Ms. Yellen became alarmed about the impact of housing-market stresses on the economy, and became a leading advocate for aggressive action, according to a transcript of the Federal Reserve’s meetings released earlier this year.
The letter also singled out Ms. Yellen’s attention to the high rate of unemployment as the central bank monitors its level of support to the economy. The Fed has a dual mandate to pursue both stable prices and seek maximum stable employment. “The next chairman must also recognize that the unemployment numbers that come across her desk are, in Governor Yellen’s words, ‘not just statistics,’” the letter said. Some Republican lawmakers have urged the Fed to focus just on controlling inflation.
Ms. Yellen would ascend to the central bank’s top post with “a solid record as a bank regulator” and “significant monetary policy experience,” the letter said. That could lend the Fed continuity at a time when the central bank is weighing how long to maintain its $85 billion per-month bond-buying program, the lawmakers said.
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2013/07/26/senate-democrats-endorsement-praises-yellens-record/
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So, is the answer no, there is nothing Summers could do to cleanse himself of misogynist crimes?
How did Robert Byrd do it?
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I guess he asked for forgiveness? I’m not, or wasn’t, a fan of either man. I’m also not that forgiving………….lol.
I care less about Summers misogynist crimes, not sure they happened the way everyone said, than I am suspicious of his links to Wall Street and ties to Rubin et al. I don’t trust him and while Yellen may not be some pie in the sky liberal (is there a potential fed who is?), I think she’s honest and straight forward, from what I’ve read. I’ll take that over a Summers any day.
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What was Summer’s worst crime? Again, literally no interest or care in the matter. Do you believe Brent’s assessment that Summer’s is more likely to support aggressive socialist doctrine a la New Deal III
Also, what’s your opinion on FDR’s “Second Bill of Rights?”
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Bill_of_Rights
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Funny.
http://www.breitbart.com/InstaBlog/2013/09/12/Putin-s-Op-Ed-Sounds-a-Lot-Like-Senator-Obama-Circa-2007
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Moar Republican War on Women.
http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/3908151
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“The letter, which is still circulating among Democrats, lauded Ms. Yellen’s prescience in identifying early on in the financial crisis the threats posed by the run-up in housing prices and the shadow-banking sector, the untraditional corners of the financial system which helped spur the economic meltdown. As early as 2007, Ms. Yellen became alarmed about the impact of housing-market stresses on the economy, and became a leading advocate for aggressive action, according to a transcript of the Federal Reserve’s meetings released earlier this year.”
A crisis which was largely of the Fed’s own making… I would rather have a Charles Plosser than Yellen, who is just another Greenspan clone.
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And, also everyone and their brother knew there was a housing bubble by 2007. It is a myth that she and Krugman were the only ones that saw it.
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I’d no idea. The article and the comments are really interesting. Kind of a “When you see the Buddha, kill him.” type reaction.
http://www.advocate.com/print-issue/current-issue/2013/09/13/have-we-got-matthew-shepard-all-wrong?page=full
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McWing:
I thought this line from the article was particularly interesting.
There are valuable reasons for telling certain stories in a certain way at pivotal times, but that doesn’t mean we have to hold on to them once they’ve outlived their usefulness.
It’s a rather stunning admission, and why I don’t trust journalists. They are story tellers, and they tell the stories they want to tell, not necessarily the stories that actually happened.
BTW, my interest is piqued regarding the underlying case in Lawrence v Texas. Have to look into it.
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It is a myth that she and Krugman were the only ones that saw it.
That’s not exactly my argument though. If the choice is between Yellen and Summers, I would choose Yellen. If there are other choices, highly unlikely, I have other preferences.
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This is interesting I think regarding the new generation of Illegals (dreamers). Good for them.
PHOENIX — At just 20 years of age, Carla Chavarria sits at the helm of a thriving graphic design business, launching branding and media campaigns for national organizations. Some of her projects are so large she has to hire staff.
Still, Chavarria has to hop on buses to meet clients throughout Phoenix because Arizona won’t give her a driver’s license. The state considers her to be in the country illegally, even though she recently obtained a two-year reprieve from deportation under the Obama administration’s deferred action program.
She may not drive, but along with thousands of other young people who entered the country illegally, Chavarria has found a way to make a living without breaking the law.
Although federal law prohibits employers from hiring someone residing in the country illegally, there is no law prohibiting such a person from starting a business or becoming an independent contractor.
As a result, some young immigrants are forming limited liability companies or starting freelance careers — even providing jobs to U.S. citizens — as the prospect of an immigration law revamp plods along in Congress.
[snip]
Most days, a coffee shop in Phoenix serves as her office, and she charges clients $350 to $5,000 per project. The first time she contracted workers for a large campaign, an odd thought hit her: Although others couldn’t hire her, she could hire others.
She also realized that her success had a larger significance.
“They say we’re taking money and jobs and don’t pay taxes,” Chavarria said of arguments made against immigrants in the country illegally. “In reality, it’s the opposite. We pay taxes. We create jobs. I’m hiring people — U.S. citizens.”
http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-ff-immigration-business-20130915,0,4218531.story?page=1
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Instant citizenship / Open Borders.
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McWing:
You mean the like these?
The right to a useful and remunerative job in the industries or shops or farms or mines of the Nation;
The right to earn enough to provide adequate food and clothing and recreation;
The right of every farmer to raise and sell his products at a return which will give him and his family a decent living;
The right of every businessman, large and small, to trade in an atmosphere of freedom from unfair competition and domination by monopolies at home or abroad;
The right of every family to a decent home;
The right to adequate medical care and the opportunity to achieve and enjoy good health;
The right to adequate protection from the economic fears of old age, sickness, accident, and unemployment;
The right to a good education.
Hah, I’m not even going to go there…
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lms:
Hah, I’m not even going to go there
And yet you just did.
I don’t know where that list came from, but, as ever, it is clear the author does not have a coherent understanding of the term “right”. I don’t know why such lists of ‘rights” keep being presented as examples of anything other than a lack of serious thinking. They are, in fact, quite insidious, as they make a mockery of the very concept of rights, and thus diminish those to which we all really can be said to be entitled.
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No, I didn’t give my opinion Scott. McWing asked me what I thought of FDR’s second BofR’s and I was confirming he was talking about FDR’s State of the Union in which he quoted those. Why do you think I called them “so-called rights”? And I truthfully mentioned that to the extent that these may still be progressive goals or accomplishments R’s have either unwound or are attempting to unwind them. Is that false?
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lms..I have somehow edited your original rather than replying to it…I will try to fix it, but it is currently “unapproved” while I try to do so. Sorry
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lms:
McWing asked me what I thought of FDR’s second BofR’s and I was confirming he was talking about FDR’s State of the Union in which he quoted those.
Sorry…I didn’t know what post you were responding to.
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No rational person believes Obama anymore.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/obama-says-iran-shouldnt-misinterpret-us-response-to-syria/2013/09/15/fd6f27cc-1e05-11e3-8459-657e0c72fec8_print.html
It’s laughable.
Insty was right, the Cartwr years were a best case scenario.
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Don’t worry about it Scott, no big deal. I was just trying to figure out what McWing was specifically referring to yesterday. I’m playing with my new phone all day again anyway……lol
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That’s okay, I didn’t make it clear.
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David Brooks has a sad.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2013/09/14/david_brooks_warns_about_the_rise_of_ted_cruz-ism.html
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This is the funniest thing you’ll read today, a tastes-
The fiscal year is about to end, so the annual awakening of Tea Party Republicans in the House and Senate is about to begin. Most of the time they sit around and do virtually nothing but gripe (they have made the current Congress the least productive ever), but a new fiscal year finally gives them a chance to govern the only way they know how: by creating a false crisis in order to tear down a piece of the government.
That’s just the first paragraph!
It’s like a MoDo column!
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Agreed, so might as well hold out and defund Obamacare for as long as you can get.
http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/358537/wsjs-gigot-obama-may-want-shutdown-make-play-2014-andrew-johnson
The last shutdown gained the R’s at least two Senate seats. If anybody thought Dole had a chance, they’re high.
http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/358537/wsjs-gigot-obama-may-want-shutdown-make-play-2014-andrew-johnson
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Funny.
http://m.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2013/09/why-drink-more-water/279591/
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Summers is out.
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Some thought crimes are just unforgivable.
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I bet right now Summers feels like Patton after he slapped the soldier.
In other news, Tweet of the Day!
@PhilipRucker: Biden in Iowa: “I think John Kerry has been one of the best secretaries of state so far in the history of the United States of America.”
Sounds like Kanye West bustin’ in on Taylor Swift at the Grammys.
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Casual-Dining Chain Says Customers Tend to Order More With the Devices
Plus, they don’t have to be provided healthcare.
I’m sure that’s just a coincidence.
http://m.us.wsj.com/articles/a/SB10001424127887323342404579077453886739272?mg=reno64-wsj
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Hilariously partisan framing from an ostensibly objective news story on poll results showing that Obamacare is not exactly popular among the masses. Perhaps USA Today should change its name to DNC Today.
Republican lawmakers have failed in dozens of attempts to repeal the Affordable Care Act, but a new USA TODAY/Pew Research Center Poll shows just how difficult they have made it for President Obama’s signature legislative achievement to succeed.
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This was slightly interesting from that piece though Scott.
“However, non-Tea Party Republicans who oppose the law are inclined to think officials should do what they can to make the law work as well as possible. Among all opponents of the law, a narrow majority, 51%-42%, want officials to help the law succeed.”
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lms (from the poll):
Among all opponents of the law, a narrow majority, 51%-42%, want officials to help the law succeed…
What a weird question to poll about. I don’t know what “success” even means in this context or what “officials” they are talking about. I’m guessing that the intended implication is that R politicians should jump on board the Obamacare train to help it “succeed”, but I have no idea what R poliiticans could do to make it succeed. It’s already been passed into law, and now its implimentation is in the hands of Obama-appointed bureaucrats. I doubt those “officials” need encouragement of R voters to “help the law succeed”.
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Scott
and now its implimentation is in the hands of Obama-appointed bureaucrats
Actually a lot of the law is in the hands of Republican Governors and legislatures in a majority of states. There seems to be a disconnect between Federal and State Republicans from some of the stuff I’ve been reading lately.
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lms:
Actually a lot of the law is in the hands of Republican Governors and legislatures in a majority of states.
I know the establishment of exchanges rested with states, but the feds have committed creating their own exchanges when a state does not. What else is in the hands of R governors?
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Medicaid.
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lms:
Medicaid
Hasn’t that always been in the hands of states? What is different now? What is Obamacare depending upon R Governors to do?
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Scott
Medicaid eligibility varies from state to state and depends on income and other factors. The health-care law, in an effort to make eligibility uniform, mandated that anyone earning up to 138 percent of the poverty level, or $15,856 in 2013 dollars, be eligible for the program. But last June, the Supreme Court, while upholding most of the health-care law, ruled that states could refuse to expand their Medicaid programs. That set the stage for bitter debates — ones ruled as much by ideology and politics as by financial realities — that have been occurring in state capitals nationwide.
Under the law, the federal government will pay 100 percent of the cost of newly eligible Medicaid recipients for the first three years, beginning in January. After that, the federal contribution will taper, leveling off at 90 percent for 2020 and beyond.
http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2013-06-02/national/39697956_1_medicaid-expansion-medicaid-plan-gop-governors
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lms:
re medicaid
So in other words, R governors can helpp Obamacare succeed by increasing their state spending on medicare. Do you think that this is what responders to that poll had in mind when they said that “officials” should “help the law succeed”? Or do you think that, had the poll question been “Do you think state taxes should be raised in order to help fund Obamacare” the answers might have been different?
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I don’t know Scott, I’d have to do more research than I have time for on the polling.
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