Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Memetrics
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
| Last | Change | Percent | |
| S&P Futures | 1490.8 | 3.6 | 0.24% |
| Eurostoxx Index | 2586.8 | -65.1 | -2.45% |
| Oil (WTI) | 92.23 | -0.9 | -0.95% |
| LIBOR | 0.287 | 0.000 | 0.00% |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 81.85 | 0.180 | 0.22% |
| 10 Year Govt Bond Yield | 1.87% | 0.01% | |
| RPX Composite Real Estate Index | 194.1 | -0.5 |
Markets are higher after yesterday’s bloodbath. Yesterday’s sell-off was blamed on Italian election results which caused a 32 bp sell-off in Italian sovereigns. They have traded another 50 basis points wider this morning. The Bernank will testify before the Senate Banking Committee today. Bonds are higher, continuing yesterday’s furious rally. The 10-year has tightened by 13 basis points and is trading at 1.87%. MBS are flat.
The S&P Case-Schiller index of home prices rose 6.8% YOY and .88% MOM in December. The only MSA with negative growth was New York. Separately, FHFA reported that prices increased .6% MOM in December. They note that while the foreclosure pipeline is still high, the actual number of homes available for sale is very low and falling.
Altos has a piece on why inventory is so low. First, they cite low housing starts. From 1957 – 2002, we averaged 1.5 million units a year. Since the bubble burst, we have been hitting around 700k. Quickly ramping up housing construction is difficult. Second, there is psychological effect of sellers who now see the light at the end of the tunnel. Prices are rising again, and they are hoping to get out flat. Finally, the government has emphatically sided with home owners over home buyers. They are pulling out all the stops to keep inventory off the market through foreclosure mitigation and refinance opportunities for underwater homeowners. This has the net effect of restricting supply, which is good for existing homeowners, but not so much for first time homebuyers who want in. The net result: 2013 home price appreciation should be very strong.
In confirmation of the above, the Despot reported a 13.9% increase in 4Q sales, with comps up 7%. While they attribute some of the growth to Sandy repairs, they mainly cite the improving residential real estate market.
In a sign that the refi boom may be over, JP Morgan plans on cutting headcount in mortgage banking by 13k – 15k in an effort to cut $3B in expenses by the end of 2014. They see cutting 3,000 – 4,000 jobs in consumer banking this year, almost entirely by attrition. The hits keep coming….
Bob Corker is saying the ball is in the White House’s court in order to confirm CFPB acting Chairman Richard Cordray. A January court decision that Obama’s recess appointments to the NLRB were unconstitutional is giving Republicans a chance to press for changes to CFPB in order to bring more of it under Congressional control. They are arguing for a 5 member bipartisan board, and for the budget to be subject to the normal appropriations process.
Filed under: Morning Report |
All Things in Moderation 
My first mortgage is through Citibank which has become very aggressive in marketing a refi to me. I have gotten multiple FedEx packages which are nothing but sales brochures. That seems like a lot of overhead just to get my attention.
My rate is good but not great (5.875%) but I have a HELOC at an absurdly low rate (<2%) I'd have to roll into a refi deal. If and when that rate starts to rise I'll look at rolling everything over into something fixed rate.
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“In a sign that the refi boom may be over, JP Morgan plans on cutting headcount in mortgage banking by 13k – 15k in an effort to cut $3B in expenses by the end of 2014. They see cutting 3,000 – 4,000 jobs in consumer banking this year, almost entirely by attrition. The hits keep coming….”
Nice corollary:
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/22/business/homeowners-still-face-foreclosure-despite-billions-in-aid.html
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Kessler’s piece on the sequester is worth a read:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/fact-checker/post/spin-and-counterspin-in-the-sequester-debate/2013/02/25/e709db58-7fa4-11e2-b99e-6baf4ebe42df_blog.html?hpid=z2
This is the bottom line for me and pretty much applies to all the programs that are being cut:
As has been noted here numerous times, the sequester is the last, best chance to undo the baseline increases that the Democrats got from the stimulus and the FY2009 budget.
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For Nova. Krugman goes Star Wars
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/02/26/fantasies-of-presidential-will/
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And the bullshit starts even before the sequester kicks in.
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And the bullshit starts
Maybe not. Could be that Napolitano has enough authority regarding national security that by letting detainees go she can redirect money to Border Patrol or some other essential function.
I have no info here, I am just speculating that saving the cost of
thousands(dozens?) of beds beginning right now might be smart.She would look dumb, of course, if at the last minute Congress+POTUS kick the can again.
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mark:
Could be that Napolitano has enough authority regarding national security that by letting detainees go she can redirect money to Border Patrol or some other essential function.
Given that Napolitano has, at pretty much the same time, also warned that the sequester is going to force her to furlough 5,000 border agents, it sounds to me like jnc had it right to start with…BS.
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Oh, I agree it is probably BS. But I was putting together the same two statements and thinking perhaps she has more recently thought up a way to prioritize. Just playing lawyer.
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Consider her to have been the better person to take on the job of SecTreas, over Citibank’s Lew.
http://tinyurl.com/by3y4cr
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That’s an odd thing for Krugman to say, seeing that i’m sure he’d like it Obama did exactly that.
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From Twitter via Wonkblog:
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