Morning Report – Settlements, Settlements 01/09/13

Vital Statistics:

 
  Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1454.2 1.9 0.13%
Eurostoxx Index 2697.2 5.8 0.21%
Oil (WTI) 93.08 -0.1 -0.08%
LIBOR 0.305 0.000 0.00%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 80.53 0.180 0.22%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.86% -0.01%  
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 192 -0.2  
Markets are firmer this morning after Alcoa kicked off earnings season with better than expected revenues. Mortgage applications rose 11.7% in the first week of Jan.  The Japanese yen continues its slide that started with the elections last month, which means the entire planet is now playing the currency devaluation game. Bonds and MBS are up small.
 
Looks like Jack Lew is the new nominee for Treasury Secretary.
 
Blackstone has been accelerating its rental strategy, buying $2.5 billion or 16,000 homes last year.  In the 4th quarter alone, they bought $1.5 billion worth on homes.  Their plan is to turn residential properties into a new  $1.5 trillion institutional asset class. J.P. Morgan estimates that the market could total 12 million homes and be double the institutional multi-fam market.  Blackstone is concentrating on the 9 hardest-hit cities – places like Phoenix and Miami.  Scalability will be the key determinant here. Still, it is an interesting idea, and is another reason why the rebound in house prices could be stronger than people are forecasting.  
 
Another settlement seems to be in the works – Goldman, HSBC, Ally, and Morgan Stanley are close to reaching a $1.5 billion settlement with the Feds for alleged servicing sins. For consumer activists and lawyers, these settlements are never enough.
 
Marketwatch is reporting that we will finally get the new QM rules this week. It is expected that implementation could take up to a year.  The ABA has said that “Banks are not likely to operate outside the legal guarantees offered by the qualified mortgage protections, meaning that the safe harbor rules will largely determine the scope of all future mortgage lending.”  The CFPB is expected to finalized rules on servicing, LO comp and appraisals by Jan 21.
 
Tony Crescenzi of PIMCO asserts there is no bubble in bonds. Between demographics and the Fed, he believes we will not see a collapse in the bond market. Needless to say, PIMCO has a habit of talking its book, so take what he says with a grain of salt. But he may in fact be correct that the baby boom’s investing habits will mirror the ones of the jazz age generation which lost everything in the Great Depression.  

5 Responses

  1. What ought to be the general standard for advise and consent as to a Cabinet appointee?

    Competency?
    Honesty?
    Sobriety?
    all of the above?

    The Constitution doesn’t restrict the Senate, really. Only the Senate’s own traditions exist. Should the tradition now include political disagreement? Does it now include politics?

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    • Mark:

      What ought to be the general standard for advise and consent as to a Cabinet appointee?

      Relative sanity and a lack of substance/alcohol abuse. Otherwise the president should get (stuck with) whoever he wants.

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      • kinda what i think too

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        • This story strikes me as weird because I cannot imagine staking $350M in a company under attack.

          Was the attack merely aimed at driving down the stock price for a hostile takeover? Was the maneuver transparent? Was the bluff called by another player? $350M sounds like “all in”.

          BY WILLIAM ALDEN [NYT DealBook]

          BATTLE LINES DRAWN OVER HERBALIFE The clash of the hedge fund titans has been set, and the financial world is eagerly watching. William A. Ackman and Daniel S. Loeb, two of the most prominent hedge fund managers in Manhattan, became business rivals on Wednesday, with hundreds of millions of dollars in play over Herbalife, a nutritional supplements company.

          Betting that Herbalife would thrive, Mr. Loeb disclosed on Wednesday that his firm Third Point had bought nearly nine million shares of the company, a position now worth more than $350 million, DealBook reports. That amounted to a direct challenge to Mr. Ackman, who weeks earlier had called the company a pyramid scheme, wagering $1 billion that the stock would fall. Herbalife, whose shares have been on a roller coaster ride, will tell its side of the story on Thursday, in a meeting with analysts at 9 a.m. in New York. DealBook will be providing live updates of the conference.

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  2. Ditto. Certainly nothing disqualifying about the current crop of nominees.

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