Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Arcanaut
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
| Last | Change | Percent | |
| S&P Futures | 1454.8 | -1.0 | -0.07% |
| Eurostoxx Index | 2703.9 | 8.4 | 0.31% |
| Oil (WTI) | 93.5 | 0.3 | 0.33% |
| LIBOR | 0.305 | 0.000 | 0.00% |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 80.37 | 0.113 | 0.14% |
| 10 Year Govt Bond Yield | 1.89% | -0.01% | |
| RPX Composite Real Estate Index | 192.2 | -0.2 |
Markets are lower this morning as we kick off 4Q earnings season. Alcoa officially begins the parade after the close. Bonds and MBS are up small.
The NFIB Small Business Survey for January ticked up slightly in December after falling off a cliff in November. The current level of 88 is a recession-level reading. Capital Spending is still in maintenance mode. Employment growth is flat. Housing, energy, and autos (the average age of a car is over 10 years) look to be the drivers of growth in 2013. But, overall, it was a glum report.
Chart: NFIB Small Business Optimism:
The National Association of Home Builders Improving Market Index rose to 242 (out of 361 MSAs total) in January from 201 in December. This strength during a seasonally weak period bodes well for the summer selling season and confirms our view that housing bottomed about a year ago. Rentals are still booming as rents increased 3.8% YOY last quarter. The vacancy rate dropped to 8%.
Could the East Coast get a break in gasoline prices? Currently, the East Coast refineries use North Sea Brent crude oil, which trades at a premium to West Texas Intermediate, which is the source for West. Burlington Northern will boost crude oil shipments by 40% this year (primarily Bakken shale oil), and is looking to ship east to supply refineries on the Eastern Seaboard. As coal shipments decline, oil is taking their place. Since railroads have more flexibility than pipelines, the continental US energy market will become more equalized. Good news for the East Coast.
A new study shows that we may hit the debt ceiling sooner than expected, around Valentine’s Day (how romantic). Obama has said that the debt ceiling is non-negotiable. My sense is that Republicans will cede the debt ceiling point and use the sequestration or the expiration of the government’s operating budget to push through spending cuts. As a plan B, the trillion dollar coin is still being bandied about, particularly by the Krug Man and Greg Sargent (who talks to NYPD hostage negotiators, instead of economists, apparently).
Filed under: Morning Report |
All Things in Moderation 
Interesting (at least to me) employment numbers from the EU:
LikeLike
“(who talks to NYPD hostage negotiators, instead of economists, apparently”
What?
no wait. never mind.
LikeLike
Nova:
“A veteran hostage negotiator’s advice on handling the GOP
Posted by Greg Sargent on January 4, 2013 at 1:56 pm
The use of hostage-taking imagery to describe the coming debt ceiling crisis is now so ubiquitous that I thought I’d ask a veteran police hostage negotiator what he thinks of the looming standoff.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2013/01/04/a-veteran-hostage-negotiators-advice-on-handling-the-gop/
No, apparently it’s not meant as satire
LikeLike
Better to mint one thousand billion dollar commemoratives.
Some could be sold to collectors. Maybe Buffett would buy one, or the Saud family. Or Ellison. He seems like the kind of asshole who would put a billion dollar coin on the wall the way some people hang their first $100 they ever made.
What should they commemorate? Hmm.
50th anniversary of the Cuban Missile Crisis? Nah, it would be 51.
Got it. 100th anniversary of the Federal Reserve!
LikeLike
And Greg jumps the shark.
LikeLike
So, Brent, I’ve got to ask. Lately you’ve started giving your posts wonderful titles–is it the ATiM influence or your real job??
LikeLike
Interesting read. Apparently the government discriminates against large families, too.
LikeLike