Vital Statistics:
|
Last |
Change |
Percent |
|
|
S&P Futures |
1409.0 |
2.2 |
0.16% |
|
Eurostoxx Index |
2523.4 |
19.8 |
0.79% |
|
Oil (WTI) |
86.5 |
0.3 |
0.30% |
|
LIBOR |
0.313 |
0.000 |
0.00% |
|
US Dollar Index (DXY) |
79.9 |
-0.015 |
-0.02% |
|
10 Year Govt Bond Yield |
1.71% |
0.02% |
|
|
RPX Composite Real Estate Index |
194.1 |
-0.3 |
|
Markets are up slightly as we recover from Sandy. Transportation into NYC is still spotty, so expect lower-than-normal liquidity. Bonds are down 1/2 a point and MBS are down small.
The US markets were closed Monday and Tuesday. The last time the US markets were closed two consecutive days for a weather-related reason? The Blizzard of 1888.
Can FEMA cover the losses from Sandy? With the expected flood insurance claims, maybe not.
We have a slew of economic data this morning, starting with ADP Employment Change. This is supposed to mirror the payroll survey the government puts out. It showed nonfarm private employment rose 158k in Oct, while Sep was revised downward from 162k to 114k. ADP has made some changes to their methodology, so this number will be hard to predict / volatile for the near term.
Challenger and Gray reported announced job cuts increased 41% in Oct, largely a result of lackluster earnings reports so far. C&G don’t differentiate between domestic and overseas job cuts, so the impact on the US will be less. The Markit Final PMI fell to a 37 month low.
Nonfarm productivity came in better than forecast, while unit labor costs unexpectedly fell. Initial Jobless claims came in at 363k. Consumer Confidence, ISM, and construction spending will be released at 10:00.
Today is the first Thursday of the month, and that means retailers are reporting same store sales. Generally, they are up across the board, which was pretty much to be expected. Apparel did the best, while department and drug stores were generally down.
What will be the economic effect of Sandy? According to IHS Global, it could take 1.5% of 4Q GDP. But what about all of the construction workers that will be hired to rebuild? More of a Q1 event, though overall, not enough to offset the balance sheet effects. Refer to the Broken Window Fallacy. This will undoubtedly be motivation to prevent the fiscal cliff from occurring, although there seems to be a consensus that everything should be kicked down the road with the exception of the entirely symbolic tax cuts for incomes over 250k.
Filed under: Morning Report |
“But what about all of the construction workers that will be hired to rebuild? More of a Q1 event, though overall, not enough to offset the balance sheet effects. Refer to the Broken Window Fallacy. ”
But Brent, you are forgetting the magic of the multiplier. If the government is the one spending the money then it has double the economic impact than if someone else does it.
LikeLike
obama’s proposed Secretary of Business has a “binders full of women” feel to it, doesn’t it?
LikeLike
Welcome back, Brent. You work in the city, right? How long did it take to get to work today?
LikeLike
“Brent Nyitray, on November 1, 2012 at 8:47 am said:
obama’s proposed Secretary of Business has a “binders full of women” feel to it, doesn’t it?”
I think it was bad phrasing, but as I read the full proposal it was to consolidate existing departments down, not add a new one. He would have been better served to have simply stated that he wanted to consolidate all business related agencies in the Federal Government into the Commerce Department.
Reducing the number of federal agencies is fine with me.
LikeLike
Thanks, Mike. I work in Stamford, CT so I didn’t have to go into the City. I did however have to take a very circuitous route to work as we still have major roads that are still blocked.
We made it through fine in Westchester County, but it looks like the apocalypse and there are still downed power lines all over the street. My guess is that NYSEG won’t even get to us until Sunday or Monday.
LikeLike
jnc, you’re right, but it has this “Gorillas in the Mist” – “we must study these strange alien creatures called businesspeople and learn their ways and customs” feel to it.
LikeLike
I thought that this consolidation of departments business-related was something that was originally floated months ago. Am I misremembering?
And very good to see you back, Brent!
LikeLike
It was proposed months ago. As President Obama noted later in the original interview, it got bogged down in Congressional turf wars.
LikeLike
Grover Norquist on what’s likely to happen on taxes after the election, regardless of who wins.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/11/01/grover-norquist-even-if-obama-is-reelected-taxes-arent-going-up/
LikeLike
The story that won’t die:
LikeLike
Worth a read:
“Hurricane Sandy and the Myth of the Big Government-vs.-Small-Government Debate
POSTED: November 1, 1:35 PM ET
Matt Taibbi”
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/blogs/taibblog/hurricane-sandy-and-the-myth-of-the-big-government-vs-small-government-debate-20121101
The key point:
“The point is, we will end up with a big government no matter who wins next week’s election, because neither Mitt Romney nor Barack Obama is supported by a coalition that has any interest in tightening its own belt.”
LikeLike
Taibbi is channeling you again, jnc. . . and I think NoVA has said something similar to this, also.
LikeLike
And a not-so-ringing endorsement for Obama from The Economist:
LikeLike
Mayor Bloomberg is endorsing Obama a little more enthusiastically:
Emphasis min.
But the part of his endorsement that I found most interesting was this:
That’s got to leave a mark!
I pulled this off of Bloomberg’s web site.
LikeLike
“I want our president to place scientific evidence and risk management above electoral politics.”
He’s going to be disappointed again.
On an unrelated note, I don’t see how EJ Dionne can be in favor of abortion rights but at the same time opposed to assisted suicide on moral grounds.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-partisan/post/liberals-should-be-wary-of-assisted-suicide/2012/11/01/81971b10-245e-11e2-9313-3c7f59038d93_blog.html
LikeLike
Trump, trying to stay relevant and failing:
Ralph Gilles is Chrysler’s Vice President for Product Design.
LikeLike
Subtle
LikeLike
jnc:
I don’t see how EJ Dionne can be in favor of abortion rights but at the same time opposed to assisted suicide on moral grounds.
I could be wrong, but I think that this is actually fairly common among liberal Catholics. But I don’t really understand where/how to draw that line, either.
LikeLike
And this also jumped out at me from the Bloomberg excerpt: I want our president to be on the right side of history.
Yessss, (Referring to social issues.)
I don’t see how EJ Dionne can be in favor of abortion rights but at the same time opposed to assisted suicide on moral grounds.
jnc, just a guess, but what if Dionne holds a view about when “life” actually begins that makes these opinions reconcilable?
[Good on Gilles]
LikeLike
If the premise of abortion rights is that the woman should have control of her own body without interference from the state, then it follows that they should also have a right to chose physician assisted suicide if they are competent to make that decision.
LikeLike