Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Arcanaut
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
|
Last |
Change |
Percent |
|
|
S&P Futures |
1446.6 |
-5.3 |
-0.37% |
|
Eurostoxx Index |
2553.6 |
-23.5 |
-0.91% |
|
Oil (WTI) |
91.84 |
-1.1 |
-1.13% |
|
LIBOR |
0.367 |
-0.002 |
-0.54% |
|
US Dollar Index (DXY) |
79.59 |
0.265 |
0.33% |
|
10 Year Govt Bond Yield |
1.72% |
-0.03% |
|
|
RPX Composite Real Estate Index |
194.5 |
-0.2 |
|
Markets are lower after a disappointing German business sentiment survey and some German officials criticized Spanish Prime Minister Rajoy’s foot-dragging on an aid package. The financial industry jobs bleed continues – after BOA announced it would cut 16,000 jobs late last week, RBS is cutting another 300 and Nomura is reorganizing (read cutting jobs) in its Asian Finance Unit. According to Olivetree financials strategist, this is just the start. Bonds and MBS are up.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index deteriorated in August, which was the 6th consecutive month activity was below trend. The number came in at – .87, which is below the – .7 mark. If the 3 month moving average falls below .7, it typically means a recession has already started. FWIW, employment was not the big driver – it was production.
Lennar reported better than expected sales and profits this morning. Stuart Miller characterized the housing market as “The housing market has stabilized and the recovery is well underway. Low mortgage rates, affordable home prices, increased buyer confidence and an extremely favorable rent-to-own comparison are driving growth in each of our markets. Additionally, reduced foreclosures and declining distressed home inventory are further contributing to the improvement in the housing market.” Granted, the homeboys are the biggest cheerleaders of real estate there is, but still… BTW, KB Homes was up 16.5% on Friday after it reported a good quarter. LEN is up 4% pre-open.
After the fact, Shelia Bair thinks Hank Paulson’s bazooka was too big.
Filed under: Morning Report |
All Things in Moderation 
Europe keeps “getting out of the woods”, almost as fast as their woods keep expanding.
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Just read this over at Nakedcapitalism.
Bottom line: anyone who gets optimistic about growth trend in the US needs to confront the fact that the seeming prosperity before the global crisis was fueled by rising household debt, not growing incomes. And even if the powers that be prevent further deleveraging by lowering borrowing costs on outstanding debt, that still fails to set the foundation for anything other than lackluster growth. Expecting consumers to lever up even further is not a way out of the stagnant incomes box.
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Brent and his followers, I being one, have all believed this to be true about deleveraging, Lulu.
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The power of branding:
“Apple Sells Out of iPhone 5; Weekend Sales Top 5 Million”
yet as the commercial points out in a very funny way, it’s not even as good as last year’s Galaxy.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nf5-Prx19ZM
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I used to like Jeff Macke, but since his on air nervous breakdown a couple of years ago, he’s become a bit nutty:
“Whether or not Apple products were being made at the plant, the news and unauthorized footage are another headache for the company. This is also yet another example of why the U.S. is about to see an explosion in the number of middle class jobs.
Globalization is slowly, inevitably, taking away the cost advantage of producing goods overseas. Wages overseas still lag those paid to workers in the U.S. but shipping costs, public relations headaches and a lack of manufacturing control all make it harder to justify expanding manufacturing at places such as Foxconn.
Arguing that producing domestically will drive up consumer costs misses the point. Prices are going higher regardless because wages are moving up worldwide. That’s what happens when you globalize; working conditions and costs start to equalize. It costs more to pay employees a living wage and we’re running out of countries where workers will assemble our widgets for 50 cents a day. That’s a good thing.
Airbus, Honda (HMC), Boeing (BA) and Ford (F) are just a few companies building or expanding U.S. plants this year. The corporations are coming back to America again for the same reason they left: money.”
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/foxconn-riots-revival-u-middle-class-135540606.html
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I know mark, just a reminder that we’ve got a long way to go.
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Missed this last week:
“The slow bank run that could still doom Europe
Posted by Brad Plumer on September 20, 2012 at 4:03 pm”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/09/20/the-slow-bank-run-that-could-still-doom-europe/
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Banned, from a previous thread:
“bannedagain5446, on September 23, 2012 at 9:31 am said:
“IPhone 5 Defines Apple Success, Tim Cook-Style”
http://www.cnbc.com/id/49131162
Very interesting piece. Is Cook the new Steve Ballmer a guy good with numbers but lacking in “the vision thing”?”
See this piece on Windows 8:
As a side note, Windows 8 may be the final straw that pushes me to go ahead and get a Mac.
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i have macbook pro laptop from 2006. it’s never crashed. not even once.
it’s starting to lag a bit, but it’s running 2012 software on 2006 hardware.
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MSFT makes a worse personal computer than Apple in every way, and but with a price that keeps Apple out of taking over the PC in the near future.
I’m not an MSFT fan, but there is a saturation point at which the coolness wears off and people go price. How far in the future that is, who knows.
Ballmer is the reason I sold the stock years ago, but as we have seen elsewhere, nothing lasts forever in the tech business.
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Meh. I, for one, despise Apple products, and have never used one–other than my iTouch–that were stable. Maybe it’s because all of the ones I used are operating lab equipment, but I can’t remember a day that somebody hasn’t had a machine crash when being controlled by an Apple product. In my world, Microsoft’s computers are by far the better choice.
Besides, I don’t like Apple’s interface with the touchpads rather than keyboards, and they’re too expensive for what you get.
But that’s just me. . .
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Gary Kaminsky with an interesting alternate view of QE3 op-ed. Worth sitting through the commercial, whether or not you agree:
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000117930&play=1
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As a reminder, Microsoft doesn’t make “personal computers”, just the operating systems which was and remains the key strategic point of differentiation between the two companies in the personal computer business.
In terms of product quality and stability, Microsoft’s product line peaked with Windows XP and Windows Server 2003. Subsequent releases have backtracked by re-fragmenting the operating systems and totally mishandling the transition from 32 bit to 64 bit computing. By contrast, upgrades of Mac OS X are pretty seamless.
I don’t think Microsoft has totally recovered from the Vista debacle.
Also, you can always plug a regular USB mouse into a Mac and it works just fine.
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jnc
Of course, the difference being that MSFT doesn’t want to be in the PC hardware business but Apple does. I don’t think Apple wants or cares about the actual mass computer market because I believe the margins are significantly lower than their other products. Better to sell a few Mercedes than a lot of Volkswagens
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This chart makes no sense at all
http://ycharts.com/indicators/us_savings_deposits_total
The lower the return, the more people save.
and I’ll throw this one in for extra credit.
http://ycharts.com/indicators/reports/h6_money_stock_measures
and you pay tax on the tiny amount you make at ordinary income levels too (absent tax-free situations of course)
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jnc:
Also, you can always plug a regular USB mouse into a Mac and it works just fine.
Can you not on a PC? I’ve never had an issue with this. . .
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as a % of GDP, savings accounts have been rising since 1975 from below 10% to 42% or so now. Really started taking off in the mid 90s when it was 15%. It fell from 2004-2007 and then shot straight up again. The rate of change was also lower during the equity bubble.
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I was responding to this:
“Besides, I don’t like Apple’s interface with the touchpads rather than keyboards”
I thought you were referring to Apple’s multi-touch trackpad on the Mac’s.
http://www.apple.com/magictrackpad/
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I thought you were referring to Apple’s multi-touch trackpad on the Mac’s
I don’t like that, either. 🙂
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oh, and the worst part about those trackpads? My most recent Dell, bought in May, tried to do the same thing with their trackpad and it works even worse than on Macs I’ve used!
Grrrrrrrrrr
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Hillary Clinton give the big middle finger to those of us who say that at 68 she will be tool old in 2016. The opening salvo in that campaign:
“One of the issues that I have been preaching about around the world is collecting taxes in an equitable manner — especially from the elites in every country,” Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said in her speech at the Clinton Global Initiative Monday.
Although Clinton noted that she is “out of politics” domestically, the audience was already chuckling at her clear reference to the debate over tax policy in the presidential contest.
“It is a fact that the elites in every country are making money. There are rich people everywhere, and yet they do not contribute to the growth of their own countries,” Clinton said.
What Clinton meant by “contribute to growth” was revealing. She listed contributing to building schools and hospitals rather than domestic business investment, which is the conventional meaning of contributing to growth.
This is something that I hadn’t realized was a part of the goals of U.S. foreign policy: higher taxes around the world on the wealthy. But now we know it straight from the mouth of Madam Secretary Clinton herself.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/49150934
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Don Juan:
68 is the new 48!
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“Michigoose, on September 24, 2012 at 12:18 pm said:
oh, and the worst part about those trackpads? My most recent Dell, bought in May, tried to do the same thing with their trackpad and it works even worse than on Macs I’ve used!
Grrrrrrrrrr”
Correct. With Windows 8, your PC will become a half assed version of a hybrid between a Mac and an iOS device.
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OT (way OT):
Yet another example of “Mitt Romney is an Idiot”:
LATimes, emphasis mine.
Ack!!!
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Sir, PLEASE put the window down. We’re beginning our landing approach.
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“68 is the new 48!”
In that case, no Medicare or SS for them.
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As we make our final approach, please return your windows to their full upright and locked position. . .
(NoVA–snicker!!)
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Jim Lehrer should ask him whether he intends to repeal Bernoulli’s Law on Day One at one of the debates.
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More of this please: http://www.unionleader.com/article/20120923/NEWS03/709239922
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Nova, this is the interesting part:
“As a Free Stater, Converse said, she was familiar with jury nullification and “gave a rundown” on the issue, including a state law that allows criminal defense attorneys to raise nullification as of Jan. 1.”
along with the fact that the Judge’s instructions didn’t automatically tell the jurors that nullifcation was out of bounds.
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Good piece by Ezra:
“You can be pro-trade and anti-currency manipulation
Posted by Ezra Klein on September 24, 2012 at 4:43 pm”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/09/24/you-can-be-pro-trade-and-anti-currency-manipulation/
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I found that over at reason and should have linked there, but had already clicked through. sorry about that.
apparently the instructions to the jury included this: “Even if you find that the State has proven each and every element of the offense charged beyond a reasonable doubt, you may still find the defendant not guilty if you have a conscientious feeling that a not guilty verdict would be a fair result in this case.”
http://reason.com/blog/2012/09/24/free-stater-on-nh-jury-that-acquitted-po
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Mark–that is awesome!
I wonder if we could e-mail Jim and suggest that?? 🙂
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Mark:
At some point, we talked about credit card debt and whether it was going up or down. I’m not sure I totally understand these graphs, but it looks like it is going down.
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Mike – sounds like good news.
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“Even if you find that the State has proven each and every element of the offense charged beyond a reasonable doubt, you may still find the defendant not guilty if you have a conscientious feeling that a not guilty verdict would be a fair result in this case.”
That’s certainly crazy
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“A surge in older workers has masked the severity of unemployment as the younger jobless find it increasingly more difficult to get back in the labor force, according to research from a prominent Wall Street economist
Citigroup’s Steven C. Wieting’s work also throws doubt on a key assertion that some of his counterparts have used to explain a 31-year low in the labor force participation rate — namely that the number has plunged because America is getting older.
Instead, the participation rate from the 55-and-older crowd actually has increased 6.8 percent since the job market began its slide in 2007, while the decrease has come mainly from teenagers and those between ages 35 and 54.”
Can’t recall if I brought this up here or in Ezra’s column before, but older workers who won’t retire and who work in a non-professional capacity is a disaster for the economy.
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http://www.cnbc.com/id/49150913
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banned, are you sure it’s “won’t” retire, or is it “can’t” retire?
Here’s a demographic perspective on Romney’s mistakes if he loses.
But if Romney loses in November, the primary cause won’t be the tactical missteps and backbiting that Politico chronicled, or even the past two weeks’ rapid-fire controversies. The much larger problem will be fundamental strategic choices the candidate made during the Republican primary, including several that placed him in conflict with long-term demographic trends reshaping the electorate.
Romney’s biggest general-election problem is that he did not believe he could beat a GOP primary field with no competitor more formidable than Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, or Newt Gingrich without tacking sharply right on key issues. Romney repeatedly took policy positions that minimized his risks during the spring but have multiplied his challenges in the fall. His fate isn’t sealed, but the choices he made in the primaries have left him with a path to victory so narrow that it might daunt Indiana Jones. “To secure the nomination, they made … decisions about immigration, tax cuts, and a whole host of other issues that had no strategic vision,” said John Weaver, a senior strategist for John McCain’s 2008 campaign. “So he’s now trapped demographically and doesn’t even seem to understand it.”
Of all Romney’s primary-season decisions, the most damaging was his choice to repel the challenges from Perry and Gingrich by attacking them from the right—and using immigration as his cudgel. That process led Romney to embrace a succession of edgy, conservative positions anathema to many Hispanics, including denouncing Texas for providing in-state tuition to the children of illegal immigrants; praising Arizona’s immigration-enforcement law; and, above all, promising to make life so difficult for the estimated 11 million illegal immigrants that they would “self-deport.” Although Romney this week tried to soften his tone, polls show Obama attracting at least the 67 percent of Latinos that he attracted in 2008, despite Hispanics’ double-digit unemployment. Weaver, like other GOP strategists, worries that Romney has placed the GOP “on the precipice” of losing Hispanics for a generation.
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Elizabeth Warren, not actually an Indian, not actually an attorney, won’t release her tax returns
Good thing she’s a Democrat!
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Speaking to Boston’s 96.9 FM radio program “Jim and Margery” on Monday, Democratic Senate challenger Elizabeth Warren admitted that she is not licensed to practice law in Massachusetts.
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“Steve Wozniak, the co-founder of Apple, would like to become an Australian citizen, The Australian Financial Review (AFR) reported on Tuesday, citing the roll out of Australia’s national broadband network as one of the reasons for the move. ”
Canada Woz, Canada!
Geez, will this guy ever learn to make good decisions?
“Steve Wozniak had been less lucky when it comes to money. In order to finance a house and a car to the amount of two million dollars, Woz gave away many founder’s shares even before the initial public offering, which were worth much more by the IPO. 80 Apple employees who had left empty-handed in the company’s options program benefited from this so-called “WozPlan”.
When Wozniak abandoned his work at Apple in April 1981, he still possessed four percent of the Apple stocks, which were worth 70 million dollars at that time. A series of misinvestments and two divorces made Wozniak’s fortune diminish rapidly. However, he still should be a millionaire. By his own account, Woz is still drawing a small paycheck from Apple today and is still listed as “employee”.”
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