Morning Report 8/24/12

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures 1395.9 -4.1 -0.29%
Eurostoxx Index 2417.7 -11.4 -0.47%
Oil (WTI) 95.89 -0.4 -0.39%
LIBOR 0.425 -0.002 -0.47%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 81.56 0.205 0.25%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.63% -0.04%
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 192.1 0.1

Markets are off after a disappointing durable goods report. Between the durable goods report and the cap good report, it showed companies pulled back from making capital investment in July. This put a bid under bonds and the 10 year is now pushing 1.6% after topping 1.8% earlier this week.  MBS are up 1/4 of a point as well.

Why does the economic recover not feel like a recovery? One big reason is that incomes are still falling – in fact they have fallen more since the recovery began than they did during the recession. Given the move in the median house price, the median house price to median income ratio has spiked to 3.7x, implying housing is overvalued. FWIW, I am skeptical of NAR’s median house price numbers, which supposedly rose 22% to 189.6 from 154.6 in Jan. Perhaps the lack of distressed sales has caused the median price to shoot up.

Bill Gross said this morning that QEIII is “almost a done deal.” No update on the status of the cult of equities’ demise, though.

Republicans want to study the implications of returning to the gold standard. This is undoubtedly aimed at libertarians who like Ron Paul and may vote for Gary Johnson.  Needless to say, the Nobel Krug Man does not approve.

Chart:  Median income:

84 Responses

  1. I’ve been looking at that chart in several places this morning. It doesn’t agree with any other chart that has been pulbished over the last decade in inflation adjusted dollars, for instance the big dip in the middle of 2005.

    I wonder what “seasonal adjustments” they made?

    Like

  2. Scott – thought of you when I read this. If you want to get yourself good and angry prior to going to the gym to work out, I’d recommend this:

    “Is Private School Not Expensive Enough?
    By R. SCOTT ASEN
    Published: August 23, 2012″

    ” At private schools, the population of families paying full tuition contains a broad array of financial capabilities. Many are struggling just to pay the stated price. But a meaningful subset of families has the resources to pay substantially more and, in a good number of cases, the “full” cost of the product they are buying (that is, the actual cost of operation on a per-student basis).

    In a perfect world we might hope that those with larger capability would voluntarily make up as much of the gap with donations as their resources allow. The problem is, they usually don’t come close.

    This brings us to a troubling conclusion: To the extent that any family with the wherewithal is paying less than the full cost of the product it is buying through combined tuition payments and donations, that family is effectively being subsidized by other current and past donors. Not only is this ethically unsupportable, but ultimately, it is also financially unworkable.

    My proposal: Supplement the traditional development model with a new pricing model. During the admissions process, along with quoting the stated tuition, the school should inform all families of the real costs of operation on a per-student basis and, further, tell them that they will be expected to fill as much of the gap between tuition and cost as they are able with a donation. To determine this number, the same level of financial disclosure currently asked of financial-aid applicants will be asked of them, and a means-testing exercise will be used to determine capability. Any family not willing to provide such disclosure would simply be told that the school expected the full gap to be met with a donation.

    It is commonplace today for schools either to claim a “need blind” admissions policy or to aspire to one. I recommend replacing the term “need blind” with “means based.” (One school in New York City, the Manhattan Country School, is using such an approach.)”

    http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/24/opinion/is-private-school-not-expensive-enough.html?_r=1&ref=opinion

    Note the use of the word “donation”.

    Like

    • jnc:

      Scott – thought of you when I read this.

      Thanks. Mr Asen is obviously very confused about many things, but I do think he has the beginnings of good idea when he says:

      It is commonplace today for schools either to claim a “need blind” admissions policy or to aspire to one. I recommend replacing the term “need blind” with “means based.”

      If he wanted to advocate for truth in advertising, he would recommend that the two terms be combined, to form a policy that might be rather familiar to students of history:  From each according to his means, to each according to his needs.  See how that goes over.

      Like

  3. John (or whatever) – David Brooks channels you:

    “Ryan’s Biggest Mistake
    By DAVID BROOKS
    Published: August 23, 2012

    Ryan’s fantasy happens to be the No. 1 political fantasy in America today, which has inebriated both parties. It is the fantasy that the other party will not exist. It is the fantasy that you are about to win a 1932-style victory that will render your opponents powerless.

    Every single speech in this election campaign is based on this fantasy. There hasn’t been a speech this year that grapples with the real world — that we live in a highly polarized, evenly divided nation and the next president is going to have to try to pass laws in that context.

    It’s obvious why candidates talk about the glorious programs they’ll create if elected. It fires up crowds and defines values. But we shouldn’t forget that it’s almost entirely make-believe.

    In the real world, there are almost never ultimate victories, and it is almost never the case (even if you control the White House and Congress) that you get to do what you want.”

    http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/24/opinion/brooks-ryans-biggest-mistake.html?ref=opinion

    Like

  4. I don’t necessarily agree with all of it, but Ta-Nehisi Coates latest piece in the Atlantic is worth reading. It’s the best stating of the “racism” argument that I’ve seen and captures a point of view that I usually don’t relate to:

    “Fear of a Black President

    As a candidate, Barack Obama said we needed to reckon with race and with America’s original sin, slavery. But as our first black president, he has avoided mention of race almost entirely. In having to be “twice as good” and “half as black,” Obama reveals the false promise and double standard of integration.
    By Ta-Nehisi Coates
    September 2012 ATLANTIC MAGAZINE ”

    http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2012/09/fear-of-a-black-president/309064/

    Like

  5. jnc:

    Did you see Ezra yesterday when he wrote that he asked everybody the same question

    “Which is why my standard follow-up question is, “If you think this is a choice election, will you let the other side govern if they win?” No one has ever said yes.”

    Well if you consider govern a synonym for dictate, then of course the answer is no. I’m not sure why one side having the House and one side the Senate means only one side gets to govern. I think Ezra has great analytical skills up to a certain point and then they just shut down.

    In reality, both sides view not only the policiies of the other as illegitimate, they view the representatives themselves as illegitimate.

    Like

  6. jnc:

    Regarding tuition, agreed. Why do you think so many private schools, including my daughter’s so assiduously court foreign students?

    It’s the full fare baby!

    Like

  7. jnc:

    At the risk of being called names, I would say that Obama has been the opposite, half as good and twice as black. He really had no accomplishments on his resume outside of a university setting. I think he became president because he was black, not in sptie of it, and really there’s nothing wrong with that. The time had come.

    Like

  8. “banned, on August 24, 2012 at 8:24 am said:

    jnc:

    Did you see Ezra yesterday when he wrote that he asked everybody the same question”

    I did and I wrote a response to your post. I think Ezra’s follow up question was perfectly valid given that the politicians themselves were proclaiming that the election results would be a mandate. In a way, he was making the same point you were.

    Like

  9. “banned, on August 24, 2012 at 8:29 am said:

    I think he became president because he was black, not in spite of it, and really there’s nothing wrong with that.”

    I’d say that Obama became President due to successfully running a Rorschach campaign that was all things to all people. He also benefited from a desire of the electorate not to have a rerun of the Clinton drama from the 1990’s (you couldn’t get Hillary without Bill), McCain’s selection of a running mate, and of course the economy.

    Like

  10. “Barack Obama said we needed to reckon with race and with America’s original sin, slavery.’

    What does this mean?

    “McCain’s selection of a running mate”

    So, leading in the polls until he suspended his campaign for the TARP flap means Obama won because of Palin?

    Like

  11. “Troll McWingnut or George, whichever, on August 24, 2012 at 9:07 am said:

    “McCain’s selection of a running mate”

    So, leading in the polls until he suspended his campaign for the TARP flap means Obama won because of Palin?””

    No, it was a combination. The campaign suspension didn’t help either. However, I would characterize the selection of Palin as VP as a net negative for the McCain campaign. If that was an example of his staffing judgment, a McCain administration would have been a disaster.

    Like

  12. “ScottC, on August 24, 2012 at 9:05 am said:


    From each according to his means, to each according to his needs. See how that goes over.”

    I like his premise of private school as a new entitlement, given the failure of the previous entitlement of public school.

    Like

  13. “No, it was a combination. The campaign suspension didn’t help either. However, I would characterize the selection of Palin as VP as a net negative for the McCain campaign. If that was an example of his staffing judgment, a McCain administration would have been a disaster.”

    Are you saying the Palin choice reduced the number of votes that McCain received? I would disagree with that, I think he received an increase in support from the R base that elevated his overall total. As for staffing judgement, I’ll write it again, it showed an unarguably better judgement than Obama’s with Biden, Sustein, Jarret, Daschle, Geithner, Jones, Holder, Napolitano, Emanuel, Daley, etc, etc., etc..

    Yeah, we sure dodged a bullet there.

    Like

  14. Romney’s op-ed in the WSJ this morning is good:

    Mitt Romney: What I Learned at Bain Capital

    My business experience taught me how to help companies grow—and what to do when trouble arises. When you see a problem, run toward it before the problem gets worse.

    By MITT ROMNEY

    The back-to-school season is here, and as parents take their children to shop for school supplies, I suspect that many of them will be visiting a Staples store. I’m very familiar with those stores because Staples is one of many businesses we helped create and expand at Bain Capital, a firm that my colleagues and I built. The firm succeeded by growing and fixing companies.

    The lessons I learned over my 15 years at Bain Capital were valuable in helping me turn around the 2002 Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City. They also helped me as governor of Massachusetts to turn a budget deficit into a surplus and reduce our unemployment rate to 4.7%. The lessons from that time would help me as president to fix our economy, create jobs and get things done in Washington.

    A broad message emerges from my Bain Capital days: A good idea is not enough for a business to succeed. It requires a talented team, a good business plan and capital to execute it. That was true of companies we helped start, like Staples and the Bright Horizons child-care provider, and several of the struggling companies we helped turn around, like the Brookstone retailer and the contact-lens maker Wesley Jessen.

    My presidency would make it easier for entrepreneurs and small businesses to get the investment dollars they need to grow, by reducing and simplifying taxes; replacing Obamacare with real health-care reform that contains costs and improves care; and by stemming the flood of new regulations that are tying small businesses in knots.

    My business experience confirmed my belief in empowering people. For example, at Bain Capital we bought Accuride, a company that made truck rims and wheels, because we saw untapped potential there. We instituted performance bonuses for the management team, which had a dramatic impact. The managers made the plants more productive, and the company started growing, adding 300 jobs while Bain was involved. My faith in people, not government, is at the foundation of my plan to strengthen America’s middle class.

    I also saw firsthand through these investments how energy costs impact the ability of a business to grow. Today, energy costs are weighing on job creators across America because President Obama has limited energy exploration and restricted development in ways that sap economic performance, curtail growth, and kill jobs. I will take a sensible approach to tapping our energy resources, which will both create jobs and make energy more affordable for every sector of our economy.

    In the 1990s, when the “old-technology” steel industry in the U.S. was failing, Bain Capital helped build a new steel company, Steel Dynamics, which has grown into one of the largest steel producers in America today, holding its own against Chinese producers. The key to its success? State-of-the-art new technology.

    Here are two lessons from the Steel Dynamics story: First, innovation is essential to the competitiveness of U.S. manufacturing. We are the most innovative, entrepreneurial nation in the world. To maintain that lead, we must give people the skills to succeed. My plan for a stronger middle class includes policies to give every family access to great schools and quality teachers, to improve access to higher education, and to attract and retain the best talent from around the world.

    The second lesson is that we must have a level playing field in international trade. As president, I will challenge unfair trade practices that are harming American workers.

    Running a business also brings lessons in tackling challenges. I was on the board of a medical diagnostic-laboratory company, Damon, when a competitor announced that it had settled with the government over a charge of fraudulent Medicare billing. I and fellow Damon outside board members joined together and immediately hired an independent law firm to examine Damon’s own practices.

    The investigation revealed a need to make some changes, which we did. The company, along with several other clinical-laboratory companies, ended up being fined for billing practices. And a Damon manager who was responsible for the fraud went to jail. The experience taught me that when you see a problem, run toward it or it will only get worse.

    That will be my approach to our federal budget problem. I am committed to capping federal spending below 20% of GDP and reducing nondefense discretionary spending by 5%. This will surely result in much wailing and gnashing of teeth in Washington. But a failure of leadership has created our debt crisis, and ducking responsibility will only cripple the economy and smother opportunity for our children and grandchildren.

    I’m not sure Bain Capital could have grown or turned around some of the companies we invested in had we faced today’s anti-business environment. Andy Puzder, the chief executive of CKE Restaurants Inc., which employs about 21,000 people at Carl’s Jr. and Hardee’s restaurants, has said that the “current unfriendly economic environment perhaps best explains why American companies are sitting on over $2 trillion which they could invest.”

    President Obama has piled on excessive regulations, proposed massive tax increases, added more than $5 trillion in federal debt, and failed to address the coming fiscal cliff—all of which is miring our nation in sluggish growth and high unemployment.

    I know what it takes to turn around difficult situations. And I will put that experience to work, to get our economy back on track, create jobs, strengthen the middle class and lay the groundwork for America’s increased competitiveness in the world.

    Mr. Romney is the Republican Party candidate for president.

    A version of this article appeared August 24, 2012, on page A11 in the U.S. edition of The Wall Street Journal, with the headline: What I Learned at Bain Capital.

    Like

  15. “Good”????

    Like

  16. Had no idea that Bain was involved with Bright Horizons, which is what we use. If you have any questions on how Romeny made his money, consider that question answered.

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  17. “Troll McWingnut or George, whichever, on August 24, 2012 at 9:18 am said:

    Are you saying the Palin choice reduced the number of votes that McCain received?”

    In my case, at least by 1. I suspect I wasn’t the only one. Whether the base turn out made up for that, well he did lose the election.

    With regards to staffing, as the campaign went on Palin revealed herself as completely unqualified. Subsequent actions (resigning the governorship) haven’t changed my opinion. I actually had a decent opinion of her prior to her selection based on her being the non-corrupt Republican in Alaska, but yes, I’d stay that Obama’s picks, despite their manifest issues were still better in terms of staffing choices than Palin. Obama’s problems are due to policy, not people, with the notable exception of Eric Holder.

    Like

  18. “Palin revealed herself as completely unqualified.

    How so?

    “I’d stay that Obama’s picks, despite their manifest issues were still better in terms of staffing choices than Palin. Obama’s problems are due to policy, not people, with the notable exception of Eric Holder.

    I suspect we have each have a different definition of competent “staffing judgement.” Your presuming that Obama had a policy on economic issues and his appointments merely carried out his will, ditto energy, ditto healthcare, ditto FP. I do not make that presumption. The appointments both shaped and helped implement these disastrous policies. On that basis, it would seem that his (Obama’s) staffing and policy judgement are manifestly incompetent.

    Like

  19. “Our church doesn’t publish how much people have given,” Romney tells Parade magazine in an edition due out Sunday. “This is done entirely privately. One of the downsides of releasing one’s financial information is that this is now all public, but we had never intended our contributions to be known. ”

    Either Romney doesn’t know when to shut up, or he has the worst team of campaign advisors since Dukakis.

    You lost the war on this one. You made the choice not to release and now you have to live with it. Every word you say about it makes you look worse not better. Every sentence you speak about it, takes away from your views on other things and gives the Dems another day or two to pound away in rebuttal.

    It is has become increasingly apparent that you may be in fact too stupid to become president.

    Like

  20. “Troll McWingnut or George, whichever, on August 24, 2012 at 9:59 am said:

    “Palin revealed herself as completely unqualified.

    How so?”

    For myself, primarily through her performance in the various interviews.

    For a more in depth view see this:

    http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2011/06/the-tragedy-of-sarah-palin/308492/

    Like

  21. bannedagain5446, on August 24, 2012 at 10:04 am said:

    “Every sentence you speak about it, takes away from your views on other things and gives the Dems another day or two to pound away in rebuttal.”

    Bingo. See also:

    “Posted at 09:28 AM ET, 08/17/2012
    If Romney isn’t going to release his tax returns, he should quit talking about them
    By Ed Rogers”

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-insiders/post/if-romney-isnt-going-to-release-his-tax-returns-he-should-quit-talking-about-them/2012/08/17/dab327e8-e86d-11e1-9739-eef99c5fb285_blog.html

    “It is has become increasingly apparent that you may be in fact too stupid to become president.”

    Especially given that he had six years to structure his income and tax returns for public consumption.

    Also, everything I have read has said that these errors are from the candidate, not the staff. It reminds me a bit of the last CEO candidate to run for President, Ross Perot.

    Like

  22. “For myself, primarily through her performance in the various interviews.”

    Any specific interviews? I assume you’re referring to the Couric interview in which it’s apparantly believed that she does not read any media. I’d love to see the outtakes on that one, however, it was not a good interview if the editing was honest. I’m also guessing you’re referring to the Gibson interview in which she asked for a definition of the “Bush Doctrine.” I actually applauded her on that because Gibson’s in-credulousness was hilarious and his definition of the Bush doctrine was wrong. But she was stupid for asking. Any other ones?

    Like

  23. J,

    Feel free to hang your judgement on that article. Bailey, Dunn, Schmidt (I presume) and other unnamed McCain staffers. I kept expecting a Sullivan/Uterous doubt to appear as well. Yikes.

    Like

  24. “Good”????

    I thought so. It gives insight into how he approaches problems. I liked it a lot.

    Like

  25. “The gunman killed the former co-worker with a .45 caliber handgun about a block away from the Empire State Building and was followed by a construction worker, who alerted police, Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg (I) told reporters at the scene. He said the shooter, identified as Jeffrey Johnson, 53, of Manhattan, then drew his weapon and attempted to shoot two police officers, who opened fire and killed him.

    .Bloomberg said some of the nine people who were hit outside the Empire State Building may have been shot accidentally by police. He said it was not clear whether the gunman managed to fire his weapon at that point. But he said none of the wounded — two women and seven men — have life-threatening injuries.”

    NYPD is known for favoring massive retaliation over marksmanship. The only reason they don’t kill more bystanders is that their shootings usually occur at night on comparatively empty streets.

    Like

  26. “Troll McWingnut or George, whichever, on August 24, 2012 at 10:27 am said:

    J,

    Feel free to hang your judgement on that article. Bailey, Dunn, Schmidt (I presume) and other unnamed McCain staffers. I kept expecting a Sullivan/Uterous doubt to appear as well. Yikes.”

    Actually Sullivan took issue with the article as he thought it was too favorable towards Palin.

    http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2011/05/patiently-explaining-the-tragedy-of-sarah-palin/238829/

    I’m actually favorably disposed to several of her arguments, such as this:

    Some of Sarah Palin’s Ideas Cross the Political Divide
    By ANAND GIRIDHARADAS
    Published: September 9, 2011

    “She made three interlocking points. First, that the United States is now governed by a “permanent political class,” drawn from both parties, that is increasingly cut off from the concerns of regular people. Second, that these Republicans and Democrats have allied with big business to mutual advantage to create what she called “corporate crony capitalism.” Third, that the real political divide in the United States may no longer be between friends and foes of Big Government, but between friends and foes of vast, remote, unaccountable institutions (both public and private). ”

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/10/us/10iht-currents10.html

    However, the cumulative weigh of her performance as a candidate convinced me to vote against the McCain/Palin ticket where I would have happily voted for a McCain/Leiberman ticket. As was noted in the book and movie “Game Change”, Palin was not a “Country First” choice. Nothing she has done since the 2008 election has convinced me otherwise.

    Like

  27. “However, the cumulative weigh of her performance as a candidate convinced me to vote against the McCain/Palin ticket where I would have happily voted for a McCain/Leiberman ticket. As was noted in the book and movie “Game Change”, Palin was not a “Country First” choice. Nothing she has done since the 2008 election has convinced me otherwise.”

    So, her performance in two interviews (and the parts edited out have not been released, btw) convinced you? Or are there other things about her performance “as a candidate” that you found lacking?

    Feel free to hang your judgement on the writings of Steve Schmidt. I do not.

    What was she obligated to do since 2008 that would convince you otherwise?

    Also, what about a McCain/Leiberman ticket is “Country First” and would have benefited the Country that a McCain/Palin could not?

    Like

  28. “Mitt Romney told a crowd in his home state of Michigan, “No one has ever asked to see my birth certificate. They know this is the place where we were born and raised.”

    Onca again, a man simply too stupid to ever become president absent an economic collapse.

    Like

    • banned:

      Onca again, a man simply too stupid to ever become president absent an economic collapse.

      Obama tells dog jokes, and Romney tells a birther joke. The only people bothered by these things are those who were never going to vote for the joke teller in the first place. I predict the effect on the election will be precisely the same as Mr. Blutarsky’s grade point average: 0.0

      Like

  29. Yeah, cause flirting with birthers has really set the R’s back electorally. What an idiot.

    Like

  30. george:

    you think it didn’t cost them the Senate in 2010 perhaps or at least Reid’s seat (which of course would have been a blessing in disguise)

    Like

  31. Greg is flogging this statement.

    Does anyone ever remember W putting out a campaign release whenever Gore or Kerry ribbed him?

    obama has to be the thinnest-skinned president ever.

    Like

  32. Greg is wrong on the birther joke, but if Romney isn’t going to release his taxes, he should cease coming up with new reasons about why he isn’t going to do so. It just starts the spin cycle all over again.

    Like

  33. No phones for anyone:

    “Apple, Samsung face sales bans in South Korea

    By Hayley Tsukayama, Friday, August 24, 9:19 AM

    Apple and Samsung both face sales bans in South Korea following a ruling from a panel of judges in Seoul that the electronics companies have infringed on each other’s patents.”

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/technology/apple-samsung-face-sales-bans-in-south-korea/2012/08/24/9cb1ac8c-edde-11e1-b0eb-dac6b50187ad_story.html?tid=pm_business_pop

    Like

  34. “george:
    you think it didn’t cost them the Senate in 2010 perhaps or at least Reid’s seat (which of course would have been a blessing in disguise)”

    Birthers? Of course not. Neither of those candidates were birthers. What are you talking about? I’m asserting that birtherism, while embarrassing for many Republicans, has not damaged Republicans in any way. Just like Democratic party flirting with 9-11 truthers in the runup to the ’06 and ’08 elections did not hurt them.

    I think you’re equating Tea Party activism and birtherism and I don’t think the two conflate like you think they do (I don’t think they relate at all). Those elections, Nevada and Rhode Island, were less about taking those seats than about putting the fear of God into already sitting Senators. To deny the spectacular success of that is to deny reality. Do you think the Democraticic grass roots would like their Senators to be as afraid of them as R Senators are of the Tea Party? I suspect the answer is es.

    Like

  35. Imagine what the rest of the Democratic party could have done with the, what, $10,000,000 Reid needed to keep his seat. Ditto Rhode Island. The Tea Party and birthers are not the same, I’m fascinated though that you think that, it is very revealing.

    Like

  36. brent:

    Romney goes off message again, practically begging for a Dem response, that again distracts.

    He’s the challenger. They don’t have to beat him. They have to run out the clock. So far, they are doing a good job of that.

    Like

  37. john,

    I still think the economy is the trump card and Romney holds that. Though I agree that he should shut up about the taxes.

    I would be a very happy guy if Republicans avoided the social issue minefield all together. It might have been a winning strategy 30 years ago. It isn’t now.

    Stick to free markets and lighter regulation.

    Like

  38. george:

    The GOP has some excellent points it could use against the president. However they seem to have failed to discover what they are, and resort to things like welfare and the lawsuit against ICE yesterday. No of course Romney isn’t a birther but he’s from a party with plenty of them, which is why he shouldn’t joke about it. It’s the reverse of Obama on you didn’t build that. The Democrats are considered suspect on the business angle, so he can’t make a point that plays into the existing story line.

    Like

  39. scott

    Romney can’t tell that joke. It’s not about “joke fairness”. It’s about what Romney has to do to win.

    Romney is by no means a stupid man, but he appears to be a very stupid politician. he should be running away with things but he, in his own way, is every bit as thin skinned as Obama is. (about which I agree btw)

    Like

    • banned:

      Romney can’t tell that joke. It’s not about “joke fairness”. It’s about what Romney has to do to win.

      Again, I predict that having told this joke will have exactly 0.0% effect on the election. It’s something only an existing Obama supporter could care about in the slightest.

      I do agree that he should not offer any more explanations of his tax return decision.

      Like

  40. Troll McWingnut or George, whichever, on August 24, 2012 at 12:21 pm said:

    “Those elections, Nevada and Rhode Island, were less about taking those seats than about putting the fear of God into already sitting Senators. “

    Did you mean Delaware, i.e. Christine O’Donnell’s defeat of Rep. Michael Castle instead of Rhode Island?

    Putting the fear of God into already sitting Senators is best accomplished by winning the primary and then winning the subsequent election.

    As William F. Buckley noted:

    “In a 1967 interview, in which he was asked about the choice of presidential candidate, Buckley said, “The wisest choice would be the one who would win…. I’d be for the most right, viable candidate who could win.””

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Review

    Like

  41. “The GOP has some excellent points it could use against the president. However they seem to have failed to discover what they are, and resort to things like welfare and the lawsuit against ICE yesterday. No of course Romney isn’t a birther but he’s from a party with plenty of them, which is why he shouldn’t joke about it. It’s the reverse of Obama on you didn’t build that. The Democrats are considered suspect on the business angle, so he can’t make a point that plays into the existing story line.

    I don’t necessarily believe that what the news media reports about what was said at an event is necessarily what was actually said or what was the most important thing said at the event. Even so, in what way has birtherism hurt the Republican party, electorally? You have not answered the question yet.

    Like

  42. J,

    Yeah, I pulled a Biden (a real show of exquisite staffing judgement on Obama’s part) I meant Delaware.

    Again, would Castle, particularly once he was elected, been a real trustworthy edition to the R caucus post election? I posit no, he would have probably exceeded L. Chafee in shittyness. Second, the Tea Party’s effectiveness in nominating their candidates (regardless of their overall elect-ability) was the important thing.

    Like

  43. I’m out of town next week on vacation. I’ll catch up with you all after Labor Day.

    Like

  44. george:

    “Even so, in what way has birtherism hurt the Republican party, electorally?”

    You are never happy with my answers, not that I don’t answer you. You want me to pull up a link somewhere that says the GOP lost a particular election because exit polling shows that people were offended by birtherism.

    you made this statement:

    “Just like Democratic party flirting with 9-11 truthers in the runup to the ’06 and ’08 elections ”

    which in my opinion is absurd and for which you provided no proof whatsoever. However I don’t find it profitable to ask you to justify it and then keep doing so. If tha’ts what you believe, ok. This particular subject, why politicians and parties wax and wane is art not science.

    Like

  45. Don Juan:

    I disagree; Romney is a supremely stupid man. He is brilliant when it comes to increasing wealth, but he is utterly lacking in common sense or basic intelligence in seemingly every other area.

    Like

  46. “You are never happy with my answers, not that I don’t answer you. You want me to pull up a link somewhere that says the GOP lost a particular election because exit polling shows that people were offended by birtherism.’

    Yes, I would like some proof. I don’t accept the assertion that birtherism has hurt Republicans electorally, though there is, I think, a strong media narrative out there claiming that. Are you claiming that birtherism hurts the Republicans electorally? If so, what’s wrong with asking for proof? If not, what are you claiming in regards to Romney and his joke? I asserted above that I do not accept the media’s claim that what was said by someone is necessarily what they said, or that it was necessarily the most important or newsworthy thing.

    Here’s a link where Howard Dean was flirting with 9-11 truthers in ’03.

    http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/chatterbox/2003/12/whopper_howard_dean.html

    Like

  47. Here’s a 2007 poll showing 42% of Democrats believed in a 9-11 conspiracy.

    http://hotair.com/archives/2007/09/06/zogby-poll-42-of-democrats-think-bush-caused-911-or-let-it-happen/

    Here’s a Rasmussen poll from ’07 showing 22% of D’s believed in a conspiracy.

    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/current_events/bush_administration/22_believe_bush_knew_about_9_11_attacks_in_advance

    It would have been electorally stupid for the D’s not to flirt with the truthers.

    Like

  48. “Troll McWingnut or George, whichever, on August 24, 2012 at 12:55 pm said:

    J,

    Yeah, I pulled a Biden (a real show of exquisite staffing judgement on Obama’s part) I meant Delaware.”

    I actually thought that Biden was a good choice for VP at the time. I took it as evidence that Obama was aware of his weak spots as a candidate (i.e. lack of experience) and was staffing to off set that.

    What is your assessment of why Obama won in 2008?

    Also, I totally agree with your assessment about progressive envy of the tea party’s effectiveness. OWS is the equilivent on the left, but they are inherently self marginalizing as they reject participation in the political process as selling out.

    http://nymag.com/news/frank-rich/eliot-spitzer-2011-10/

    Like

  49. “ScottC, on August 24, 2012 at 1:18 pm said:

    I do agree that he should not offer any more explanations of his tax return decision.”

    There are two good explanations that Romney could have offered for his tax return decision:

    1. He believes that otherwise qualified good people chose not to participate in the political process because of the amount of scrutiny they come under and the results are bad for the country. He’s trying in a limited way to change the current expectations regarding the amount of personal disclosure required so that other potentially well qualified people who otherwise would elect to skip public service may change their decisions in the future.

    2. It annoys Harry Reid, and that’s worthwhile in and of itself.

    Like

    • jnc:

      There are two good explanations…

      Yes, they are both very good. Unfortunately it is too late for him to advance the first one, so Harry Reid it is.

      Like

  50. J,

    I believe Obama won for several reasons. First, he was portrayed as handling the Democratically run Congress’s initial TARP vote disaster better than McCain. Second, the nation had become dissatisfied with the Republican party and while the Congress had been in D control for two years, many voters still thought the R’s ran everything. Finally, about a huge turnout among African American voters accounted for, I think I’ve read and will look for it, about 2/3 of the vote difference between Obama and McCain.

    Like

  51. George–

    I don’t know enough about polling to critique those two, but anecdotally I don’t know anybody who is a truther. . . other than one person who I guess would be classified as a right-leaning libertarian who is also a birther. But he’s a contrarian in pretty much everything–I sometimes think that the only reason he believes in gravity is because he hasn’t been able to come up with an alternative reason for why we don’t all fly off into space.

    And he’s a brilliant scientist. Go figure.

    Like

  52. J,

    Here is some NYT data, so, consider yourself forewarned.

    Like

  53. Michi,

    I consider the concept that Bush somehow knew about the attacks ahead of time as a variation of 9-11 trutherism. I think that’s where the D’s fall in there.

    Like

  54. George:

    I consider the concept that Bush somehow knew about the attacks ahead of time as a variation of 9-11 trutherism. I think that’s where the D’s fall in there.

    Ah. . . so pretty much it depends on how the question is asked. Even as much as I disliked GWB, I would never believe that he knew about the attacks ahead of time and did nothing. So I guess I’m an anti-truther.

    Like

  55. If Harry gets annoyed enough, maybe he’ll pop off with another “poppycock!” on the Senate floor. I do have to admire a man who can use that word with a straight face.

    Like

  56. Scott:

    Met him as part of a small group a couple of times during the Olympics and know people who know him much better than I do, although nobody who actually runs in his circle. SLC is a small town when it comes right down to it.

    Like

  57. Whoops. Meant to post on this thread:

    OT:

    “Anders Behring Breivik, the man who killed 77 people in a bomb attack and gun rampage just over a year ago, was judged to be sane by a Norwegian court Friday, as he was sentenced to 21 years in prison.”

    Quite a difference in penalty from what Breivik would get in the US — 21 years vs. DP/life without parole.

    Interesting.

    Like

  58. Carried forward as well:

    He also gets a three room suite for a cell, with his own laptop:

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/08/24/making-prison-worse-doesnt-reduce-crime-it-increases-it/

    Like

  59. Before I forget, Ron Paul has been excluded from the RNC (no speaking spot, no nomination, etc.). Instead, he’s going to muck up my weekend traffic by speaking at the newly renovated Sun Dome.

    Like

  60. But there will be this, Mike!

    Romney campaign adviser Russ Schriefer told reporters on Friday that the Romney campaign had assented to requests by Paul supporters to air a “short” film paying tribute to the retiring Texas congressman, who’s attracted a devoted following in his two bids for the GOP presidential nomination.

    Like

  61. I know that commodities don’t really draw that much interest, but this is a pretty good piece on the factors that go into macro gasoline pricing:

    “The Real Factors Behind Gasoline Price Volatility”

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/48783383

    Like

  62. I didn’t realize that boutique fuels created as much of a problem as they evidently do. Hmmm.

    Like

  63. Hey, Scott!

    I stopped by the liquor store on my way home from work and was pleasantly surprised to see that the one closest to me has upgraded their stock considerably. . . and they had Tanqueray Rangpur! It’s in the freezer cooling down now, so I’ll be having a nice little G&T in a while out on the back patio.

    Woo hoo!

    Like

  64. Michi/Scott:

    That reminds me. I picked up some Rangpur last weekend at the liquor store. Excellent in G&Ts but I prefer the Sapphire in martinis. Even better, our key limes are ripe, so we can just go pluck them off the tree for drinks.

    Looks like I won’t have to bring all the plants in this weekend as Isaac seems to be taking a bit more of a westerly course.

    Like

  65. Mike:

    Thanks for the tip; I’ll make up a martini with the Rangpur just to try it out, but so far Sapphire has been beating out the other gins that I’ve tried for martinis. Some of them (actually all of them other than the classic Tanqueray) I’ve ended up giving away to folks because they just didn’t sit well. I wonder if it’s because gins typically have some many herbals and such infused in them.

    Like

  66. Michi:

    Each gin has its own blend of botanicals, I think. I’ll bet the Rangpur is great in a gimlet as well. Or with ginger ale. Maybe I’ll try it in a Vesper tonight ….

    Yes, it is definitely time to go home and have a drink.

    Like

  67. From Douglas Adams’ The Restaurant at the End of the Universe

    “It is a curious fact, and one to which no one knows quite how much importance to attach, that something like 85% of all known worlds in the Galaxy, be they primitive or highly advanced, have invented a drink called jynnan tonnyx, or gee-N’N-T’N-ix, or jinond-o-nicks, or any one of a thousand or more variations on the same phonetic theme. The drinks themselves are not the same, and vary between the Sivolvian “chinanto/mnigs” which is ordinary water served at slightly above room temperature, and the Gagrakackan “tzjin-anthony-ks” which kills cows at a hundred paces; and in fact the one common factor between all of them, beyond the fact that the names sound the same, is that they were all invented and named before the worlds concerned made contact with any other worlds.”

    Like

  68. Mike:

    What’s a Vesper? I’m still learning my way around gin.

    Like

  69. yello, if you stop by:

    Dude, you owe me a computer screen cleaning! “I would love to be the banana in that peanut butter sandwich.”?????????

    That one line made the wading through comments on PL so totally worthwhile today.

    Like

  70. NoVA:

    Enquiring minds (well, me) want to know: did you get an invite to an event at Jackson’s Bistro next week??

    Like

  71. Michi:

    A Vesper martini was described in Casino Royale: 3 parts gin, 1 part vodka, 1 part Kina Lillet, and a slice of lemon peel. The Rangpur was pretty good in the Vesper, though not “standard” (Fleming specifies Gordon’s gin; Kina Lillet is now just Lillet or Lillet Blanc).

    Unfortunately (fortunately?) for me, I’ve turned into a lightweight — one of those and I was done for the night.

    Like

  72. “Michigoose, on August 24, 2012 at 5:27 pm said:

    Mike:

    What’s a Vesper? I’m still learning my way around gin.”

    It’s the James Bond drink from Casino Royale.

    “The Vesper or Vesper Martini is a cocktail that was originally made of gin, vodka, and Kina Lillet.

    The drink was invented and named by fictional secret agent James Bond in the 1953 novel Casino Royale.

    “A dry martini,” [Bond] said. “One. In a deep champagne goblet.”

    “Oui, monsieur.”

    “Just a moment. Three measures of Gordon’s, one of vodka, half a measure of Kina Lillet. Shake it very well until it’s ice-cold, then add a large thin slice of lemon peel. Got it?”

    “Certainly, monsieur.” The barman seemed pleased with the idea.

    “Gosh, that’s certainly a drink,” said Leiter.

    Bond laughed. “When I’m…er…concentrating,” he explained, “I never have more than one drink before dinner. But I do like that one to be large and very strong and very cold and very well-made. I hate small portions of anything, particularly when they taste bad. This drink’s my own invention. I’m going to patent it when I can think of a good name.”

    —Ian Fleming, Casino Royale ”

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vesper_%28cocktail%29

    Like

  73. Whoops. Guess I’ve been putting too much Lillet in my Vespers …. Thanks, jnc.

    Like

  74. The Wikipedia article also has the substitutions needed to make sure you get the appropriate 1953 alcohol level as well.

    Like

  75. Gee, I hope you guys all know you’re inadvertently torturing someone who is temporarily not allowed to drink any alcoholic beverages. I’m not partial to gin though as I prefer a good bourbon occasionally. Once I get the okay to drink again, let’s have a party.

    Like

  76. jnc:

    Last thing I need is to increase the amount of alcohol in a Vesper! I think Bombay Sapphire is 94 proof already.

    lms:

    Just let us know when and where!

    Like

  77. Mark’s going to bring some Tito’s vodka from Austin and Scott has another gin (Hendrick’s) for me to try. I’ll kick in some Five Wives vodka from Ogden.

    What a party it’s going to be!

    Like

  78. Scott:

    I’m sipping a Rangpur G&T and relaxing after a busy Saturday. . . and I have to say that, even though I made it myself, this is probably the best G&T I’ve ever tasted. Thanks for telling me about Rangpur!

    Like

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