Morning Report 8/23/12

Vital Statistics:

  Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1409.8 -2.5 -0.18%
Eurostoxx Index 2436.2 -16.6 -0.68%
Oil (WTI) 97.49 0.2 0.24%
LIBOR 0.427 -0.004 -0.91%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 81.34 -0.143 -0.18%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.70% 0.00%  
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 192 0.0  

Initial Jobless Claims came in at 372k, a little higher than expected and pretty much in line with the latest trend of 375k / week.  New Home Sales increased to 372k in July

The FHFA Home Price Index increased 3% YOY and .7% MOM. This report only focuses on conforming mortgages, which makes it a more stable index than Case-Schiller or RPX.

The FOMC minutes noted that economic conditions have decelerated from earlier this year and discussed the possibility of another round of quantitative easing.  This drove the 10 year yield from 1.8% to 1.7%. MBS rallied as well.  My view has been that we are getting too close to the election – the Fed wants to appear non-political and definitely does not want to influence elections.  However this morning, St Louis Fed President James Bullard characterized the minutes as “stale,” noting that some of the data lately indicates the economy is getting stronger again.

CBO is forecasting 2.25% economic growth for the rest of the year and unemployment above 8%.  If Taxmageddon is not averted, CBO projects a recession with real GDP declining .5% from Q412 to Q413 and unemployment rising to 9%. If all the tax hikes and spending cuts are held off indefinitely, their projection is pretty much where the economy is now – 1.7% GDP growth with 8% unemployment. So the goalposts are (a) very modest recession vs (b) very modest recovery. Which means interest rates aren’t going anywhere. 

Chart:  FHFA House Price Index

122 Responses

  1. Worth a read:

    “Why Capitalism Has an Image Problem
    Charles Murray examines the cloud now hanging over American business—and what today’s capitalists can do about it.

    By CHARLES MURRAY
    Updated July 30, 2012, 1:20 a.m. ET”

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443931404577549223178294822.html?mod=WSJ_hp_mostpop_read

    and the counterargument

    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/08/charles-murray-panderer-to-fraudulent-plutocrats/

    Like

  2. Politics as Usual or Change You Can Believe In?

    “Team Obama breaks precedent to try to spoil Romney’s convention
    By Mike Lillis – 08/23/12 06:00 AM ET”

    http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/244861-team-obama-tries-to-spoil-romneys-convention

    Like

  3. Kelo v. City of New London lives on:

    “Texas judge rules in favor of TransCanada in eminent domain case

    By Steven Mufson, Thursday, August 23, 12:49 AM

    A judge in Lamar County, Texas, ruled Wednesday night that TransCanada’s Keystone XL pipeline has the right of eminent domain, rejecting a plea by farm manager Julia Trigg Crawford and dealing a blow to landowners and environmentalists who have been trying to block construction of the pipeline.”

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/texas-judge-rules-in-favor-of-transcanada-in-eminent-domain-case/2012/08/23/87744776-ecda-11e1-a80b-9f898562d010_story.html

    Like

  4. Greg’s column this morning accurately portrays the Obama camp’s campaign approach. No matter how bad you think I have been, the other guys is worse:

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/the-morning-plum-obamas-delicate-balancing-act-on-the-economy/2012/08/23/65d1bf26-ed0d-11e1-9ddc-340d5efb1e9c_blog.html

    Like

  5. “No matter how bad you think I have been, the other guys is worse:”

    That’s loser talk.

    and fron the link:

    “The poll finds that big majorities favor keeping Medicare as it is, rather than changing it to a system in which government would provide seniors with a fixed amount for buying insurance”

    too bad keeping as is isn’t even on the table.

    Like

  6. nova:

    Joe Biden last week guaranteed no changes to Social Security. Has he ever been misquoted before?

    Like

  7. jnc:

    Fron your link:

    “The most aggressive attack was left for Biden, who is heading behind enemy lines for campaign events in Tampa on Monday and Tuesday. Leading congressional Democrats, including Reps. James Clyburn (S.C.) and Debbie Wasserman Schultz (Fla.), will be joining the vice president to help crash the party.”

    That’s not exactly the A Team now is it!

    Like

  8. All the time — but only by editing out his nonsense.

    Like

  9. “That’s not exactly the A Team now is it!”

    Well, Biden clearly is not BA, Hannibal, or Face. Actually, he’s not Murdock either. More like Col. Decker. tries really hard but ultimately fails.

    Like

  10. “The Worst Is Yet to Come for China’s Economy”

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/48760563

    BHP announced the cancellation of two projects in Australia this week too. Except in certain areas that are vulnerable to swings based on the Fed, I’m taking my ball and going home for now.

    Like

  11. “banned, on August 23, 2012 at 9:44 am said:

    Greg’s column this morning accurately portrays the Obama camp’s campaign approach. No matter how bad you think I have been, the other guys is worse:”

    This may actually work for Romney:

    “Study: Romney criticism of controversial cancer ad effective with swing voters
    By Justin Sink – 08/23/12 10:13 AM ET ”

    http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/244907-study-romney-criticism-of-controversial-cancer-ad-effective-with-swing-voters

    Like

  12. Romney would not re-appoint The Bernank

    Like

  13. From Greg’s column:

    “The gamble is that even if things are bad, Obama’s approach has not been discredited; voters won’t see this election as a decision to end a presidency that has failed; ”

    I’m waiting for the Romney ads with the stimulus unemployment chart and some select sound bites from the “Summer of Recovery” in 2010.

    Like

  14. You could envision a worse campaign than Romney has run so far but it would almost have to be run by Larry Summers.

    Like

  15. When even Benen gets it right, you know there’s a problem:

    “How many exemptions can dance on the head of a pin?”

    http://maddowblog.msnbc.com/_news/2012/08/23/13436599-how-many-exemptions-can-dance-on-the-head-of-a-pin?lite

    Like

  16. george:

    You know what? I haven’t heard anybody asking Christie or Rubio to explain the apparent dichotomies in their abortion positions (among others recently)

    Now the economy could still go to hell and make Romney president this year, but if it doesn’t happen then Ryan has done very serious damage to his chances of ever being president, re: our raging debate when he was announced

    Like

  17. “Now the economy could still go to hell and make Romney president this year, but if it doesn’t happen then Ryan has done very serious damage to his chances of ever being president, re: our raging debate when he was announced”

    I literally cannot fathom why you have come to this conclusion. At some point, if it becomes too toxic, i.e. no rape exception, and he wants to remain viable, he’ll abandoned it. I presume that’s what you’re writing about. I really think you’re wish-casting here, so my question to you is why do you want Ryan discredited so?

    Don’t forget that there are, you know, rational people who think that a fetus is a human life and that it’s origin, even if it’s rape or incest, makes no difference. Would you shoot a baby because it was the product of a rape? I doubt it, and about 25% of the electorate, of the R electorate anyway, equate the rights of a live, born baby and a developing fetus.

    Again, why does Ryan long term political viability frighten you?

    Like

  18. Also banned, I thought his horrific budget and ideas mor Medicare reform will doom him. Are you now of the opinion that they will not doom him, but his anti-abortion position will? Or both?

    Like

  19. I maintained that he is actually a fiscal moderate who produced an unfortunate budget that is in conflict with his voting record because of his movement toward the younger more conservative movement in Congress (if you will recall) I don’t recall discussing Medicare at all but perhaps I am wrong?

    I do think that budget is a problem for him because the numbers don’t work. That problem however has become secondary now to the abortion issue, which I’m sure that neither he nor the GOP wanted to move to the front of this campaign. On social issues, he IS very conservative (unlike fiscal ones)

    I don’t doubt that what you write about a fetus is representative of the thinking of at least the simple majority of the GOP. However while that majority can elect members of Congress in various areas, it cannot elect a president in my opinion.

    Like

  20. As far as Ryan frightening me, I have been watching Ryan far longer than most outside of Wisconsin. I like his brains and his ease with the camera. I thought time would moderate his social positions, even enough perhaps for me to support him.

    I think this premature (in my opinion) run ends that chance. As we know, the media will not allow any politician to grow once they become national figures, except in the very rare cases where they fall in love with the person individually.

    So he does not frigthen me as much as I see a plateau on a career I thought was capable of more.

    btw do I have to piss you off to get you to post more? LOL

    Like

  21. Ryan’s most recent budget is a devolution from his earlier roadmap and the Ryan-Rivlin plan that he helped to come up with. It’s a product of the compromises that attend to an actual leadership position in the majority.

    Like

  22. I think Ryan will be fine. win or lose. and i think Democrats are overplaying their hand here.

    “Now the economy could still go to hell and make Romney president this year”

    My house in Fairfax, one of the richest areas in the country with a median income of more than 100k just appraised yesterday for 25% less than it did 2 years ago. And if the Democrats are talking about abortion and birth control, and even rape, Obama’s fucked, in my opinion.

    Like

  23. Worth noting under Brent’s theory that we have already hit bottom in housing:

    “Mortgage Rates, Home Sales Both On The Rise

    by The Associated Press
    text size A A A
    August 23, 2012

    Average U.S. rates on fixed mortgages have risen for a fourth straight week, remaining slightly above record lows. Cheap mortgages have helped fuel a modest housing recovery this year.

    Mortgage buyer Freddie Mac says the rate on the 30-year loan increased to 3.66 percent, up from 3.62 percent last week. Four weeks ago, the rate fell to 3.49 percent, the lowest since long-term mortgages began in the 1950s.

    The average on the 15-year fixed mortgage, a popular refinancing option, edged up to 2.89 percent. That’s up from 2.88 percent last week and from the record low of 2.8 percent four weeks ago.”

    http://www.npr.org/2012/08/23/159914882/mortgage-rates-home-sales-both-on-the-rise

    Like

  24. Some people lie well, some don’t

    “In an interview that aired on “Nightline” late Wednesday night Spanier told ABC-TV, “Never in my time as president of Penn State did I ever — ever once — receive a report from anyone that suggested that Jerry Sandusky was involved in any child abuse, in any sexual abuse, in any criminal act.”

    Spanier told ABC that he knew only that Sandusky had been seen engaging in “horseplay” in a campus shower with a boy in 2001 and he took that to mean “throwing water around, snapping towels.”

    Yes, university presidents often receive communications that a middle aged man was caught showering and touching a young unrelated boy on campus, especially after they had been previously investigated for possible improprieties with children 3 years earlier. It’s a quite common collegiate occurrence.

    When it happens, the usual reaction is for the university president to suggest that the man “promise that he would get professional help” because horseplay is a serious mental health issue and failure to seek help for it would leave the university “vulnerable” for failing to report it to the hoseplay police.

    Like

  25. nova:

    “And if the Democrats are talking about abortion and birth control, and even rape, Obama’s fucked, in my opinion.”

    Unless they force the Republicans to talk about it instead of the economy which is the whole idea!

    Like

  26. jnc:

    You may remember our discussion either here or in Ezra’s column can’t remember which that the needed impetus for the housing market would be anticpated rising interest rates, not declining ones.

    Like

  27. And if the Democrats are talking about abortion and birth control, and even rape, Obama’s fucked, in my opinion.

    I thought Democrats were perfectly comfortable discussing Bain and Romney’s taxes and more tax cuts for the wealthy at the expense of the middle class. It was Romney’s selection of Ryan, a very socially conservative choice and Akin’s comments, plus Ryan’s previous legislative association with him, that brought these issues to the forefront. Dems won’t shy away from these subjects. As a matter of fact, I’m surprised some people here would support Ryan as a choice in that he does hold such conservative views, which many of even the conservatives here don’t actually share.

    Like

  28. They’d be fools to engage. And I don’t think they will.

    Not if they’re looking at this: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

    Obama’s in serious trouble in the rust belt. and even CT is only a “lean” D. that should be solid blue. he won there with 60% of the vote. and now he’s barely 50% in CT. what gives? Abortion politics doesn’t fix that.

    Like

  29. “novahockey, on August 23, 2012 at 12:45 pm said:

    And if the Democrats are talking about abortion and birth control, and even rape, Obama’s fucked, in my opinion.”

    I believe you are mistaken. This election is a turn out the base election, not an appeal to moderate or independent voters.

    The abortion argument, as it has been framed by the Todd Akins comments plays to Obama’s benefit by providing an argument for an otherwise dispirited base to overlook his shortcomings and turn out anyway.

    Like

  30. The Big Kahuna died. What a character he was to those of us on the West Coast of a certain age. Legendary……………………..lol

    Like

  31. “lmsinca, on August 23, 2012 at 1:10 pm said:

    As a matter of fact, I’m surprised some people here would support Ryan as a choice in that he does hold such conservative views, which many of even the conservatives here don’t actually share.”

    The expectation is that Ryan’s ability to actually implement any of these social views will be minimal. The current terms of the debate are about what services will be publicly funded, not whether or not a nationwide ban on abortion is about to be enacted. As such, fiscal conservatism and social conservatism are actually aligned for now.

    As a libertarian, it’s hard to find a major party candidate who rejects both income redistribution and these sorts of restrictions on personal behavior.

    Like

  32. Best piece on Afghanistan I’ve seen in a while:

    “After America
    Will civil war hit Afghanistan when the U.S. leaves?
    by Dexter Filkins July 9, 2012”

    http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2012/07/09/120709fa_fact_filkins

    There was a great interview on the piece on NPR today on Talk of the Nation. The host specifically solicited calls from people who had served in Afghanistan in either a military or civilian capacity. The resulting discussion with the author of the New Yorker piece was easily the best I’ve seen on the topic.

    http://www.npr.org/2012/08/23/159922434/green-on-blue-attacks-challenge-afghan-security

    I highly recommend that everyone take the time to listen to the program once it becomes available.

    Like

    • Revealing article about China:

      Like

      • Fed Says taxpayers earned $17.7 billion from AIG bailout:

        On Thursday, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the investment management arm of the Fed, sold the last of the asset-backed securities it acquired in the multi-step bailout of AIG, which the central bank engineered in 2008 with the Treasury Department.

        The government pledged more than $182 billion to AIG in exchange for a 92% ownership stake as it stepped in to keep the company from filing for bankruptcy and possibly causing a global meltdown in financial markets.

        AIG used about $125 billion of the money, and the Fed and Treasury have been working since 2011 to extricate the government from AIG.

        The Treasury Department still has about $25 billion invested in AIG as it slowly sells its shares in the company. The Treasury sold about $5.75 billion in AIG stock this month, reducing the government’s stake to about 53%.

        The New York Fed said the final sale of its AIG-related securities resulted in a $6.6-billion profit, which was added to gains of about $11 billion from earlier sales of assets and loans that were part of the bailout.

        Like

  33. “otherwise dispirited base to overlook his shortcomings and turn out anyway.”

    That’s a very fair point. But if you’re going to turn out based on a senate candidate with a “very unfavorable” rating of 48%, i think you’re already in the bag.

    Like

  34. The current terms of the debate are about what services will be publicly funded

    I’m not sure that’s what most Democrats or even undecided women are hearing.

    Like

  35. jnc:

    Afghanistan has never known anything but civil war, that I am aware of, or perhaps a better way to put it is the absence of nationhood. The government usually controls the areas around Kabul, and perhaps another city or two. Outside of that it has always been tribal territory.

    Like

  36. “lmsinca, on August 23, 2012 at 1:30 pm said:

    The current terms of the debate are about what services will be publicly funded

    I’m not sure that’s what most Democrats or even undecided women are hearing.”

    Correct. The Republicans are being done in by the rhetoric of their own office holders. The Obama administration vs the Catholic church on forcing insurance to provide abortion & contraception services was a much more favorable framing for the Republicans.

    Like

  37. “He’s a one trick pony. One trick is all that horse can do”

    “Citi to Yank Up to $500 Million From Paulson’s Funds”

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/48767866

    Like

  38. The other point for the GOP is that if you HAVE to create this debate on abortion and contraception, for God’s sake don’t be stupid enough to have all men doing it!

    Like

  39. For Romney, the hits just keep on coming:

    “Kris Kobach Represents Immigration Agents In Lawsuit Against Obama Administration”

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/23/kris-kobach-immigration-lawsuit-obama_n_1825272.html?1345747645

    Maybe the reason Romney doesn’t appear to have enough friends is because he keeps getting run over by the ones he does have.

    Like

  40. Politics as Usual or Change You Can Believe In?

    “Ties to Obama Aided in Access for Big Utility

    By ERIC LIPTON
    Published: August 22, 2012

    WASHINGTON — Early in the Obama administration, a lobbyist for the Illinois-based energy producer Exelon Corporation proudly called it “the president’s utility.” And it was not just because it delivers power to Barack Obama’s Hyde Park neighborhood in Chicago.

    Exelon’s top executives were early and frequent supporters of Mr. Obama as he rose from the Illinois State Senate to the White House. John W. Rogers Jr., a friend of the president’s and one of his top fund-raisers, is an Exelon board member. David Axelrod, Mr. Obama’s longtime political strategist, once worked as an Exelon consultant, and Rahm Emanuel, the Chicago mayor and Mr. Obama’s former chief of staff, helped create the company through a corporate merger in 2000 while working as an investment banker.

    With energy an increasingly pivotal issue for the Obama White House, a review of Exelon’s relationship with the administration shows how familiarity has helped foster access at the upper reaches of government and how, in some cases, the outcome has been favorable for Exelon.

    White House records show that Exelon executives were able to secure an unusually large number of meetings with top administration officials at key moments in the consideration of environmental regulations that have been drafted in a way that hurt Exelon’s competitors, but curb the high cost of compliance for Exelon and its industry allies.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/23/us/politics/ties-to-obama-aided-in-access-for-exelon-corporation.html?pagewanted=all

    Like

  41. Greg’s got a new poll up on Medicare — and apparently seniors are ok with Ryan.

    And Ryan is likely going to talk about Medicare next week. He will sound reasonable and sincere. The Onion has covered this: http://www.theonion.com/articles/admit-it-i-scare-the-everloving-shit-out-of-you-do,29160/?ref=auto

    ” And seniors in Florida—the state we supposedly lost when Mitt picked me—won’t be so scared as soon they know that my mother lives in Florida, and that all I want to do is reform the health care system so she can receive care that makes good fiscal sense. Boy, I’m going to sell the shit out of that talking point. And I’m going to do a great job of it. Why? Because I’m Paul Ryan. That’s what I do.”

    And what will the Dems come back with:

    Tom Davis, a former chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, said that the Akin controversy might have knocked Republicans off their economic message, but that it also temporarily diverted Democrats from the issue he believes is most important to their chances in November, Medicare. “By moving to abortion, Democrats lost the opportunity to define Paul Ryan before he gives his speech next week” at the convention

    Like

  42. Worth a read on the ongoing effort to crack down on whistle blowers at the NSA:

    “The Program
    By Laura Poitras

    The Program: The filmmaker Laura Poitras profiles William Binney, a 32-year veteran of the National Security Agency who helped design a top-secret program he says is broadly collecting Americans’ personal data.

    Published: August 22, 2012 ”

    Like

  43. From Suzy Khimm on Wonkblog:

    ‘Gawker’s John Cook has posted 950 pages of internal documents from 21 firms that Mitt Romney has invested in. And one of those firms had some nice things to say about Dodd-Frank.”

    The only problem being that if you actually read the charts, their last stats are from Q4 2009. The report was produced at the beginning of 2010, six months BEFORE Dodd Frank passed.

    Like

  44. for God’s sake don’t be stupid enough to have all men doing it!

    Oh pshaw, that happens all the time.

    Like

  45. By moving to abortion, Democrats lost the opportunity to define Paul Ryan before he gives his speech next week” at the convention

    Personally, I’m looking forward to hearing what he has to say about Medicare. Depending on what that is exactly there will be plenty of time after the convention to define Paul Ryan.

    Like

  46. “lmsinca, on August 23, 2012 at 2:43 pm said:

    By moving to abortion, Democrats lost the opportunity to define Paul Ryan before he gives his speech next week” at the convention

    Personally, I’m looking forward to hearing what he has to say about Medicare. Depending on what that is exactly there will be plenty of time after the convention to define Paul Ryan.”

    Good piece on the Medicare cuts on Wonkblog:

    “Ryan vs. Obama: Who protects Medicare more?

    Posted by Dylan Matthews on August 23, 2012 at 2:56 pm”

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/08/23/ryan-vs-obama-who-protects-medicare-more/

    Like

  47. Good piece on the Medicare cuts on Wonkblog:

    Just sounds like a lot of conjecture to me jnc. None of us knows what the Romney-Ryan plan is going to be.

    Like

  48. lms:

    You pshawed me!

    Like

  49. “lmsinca, on August 23, 2012 at 2:56 pm said: Edit Comment

    Good piece on the Medicare cuts on Wonkblog:

    Just sounds like a lot of conjecture to me jnc. None of us knows what the Romney-Ryan plan is going to be.”

    Correct. However, the main analysis was based on Ryan’s budget vs the ACA.

    The core charge of the Republicans is accurate: The Medicare cuts in the ACA are used to fund the new entitlement structure in the ACA (i.e. the lower income subsidies for the exchanges), not extend the life of the Medicare Trust fund.

    If you haven’t read it already, see John Cassidy’s piece in the New Yorker:

    http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/johncassidy/2010/03/obamacare-by-the-numbers-part-1.html

    http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/johncassidy/2010/03/obamacare-by-the-numbers-part-2.html

    Like

  50. “banned, on August 23, 2012 at 3:05 pm said:

    lms:

    You pshawed me!”

    Be thankful you weren’t swatted with her hand bag.

    Like

  51. Be thankful you weren’t swatted with her hand bag.

    It’s more like a freakin’ suitcase. I’m lucky I can pick it up off the floor. Is pshawing bad? Haaaahahahahahaha

    Like

  52. The hook up culture as an enabler of female success:

    “Boys on the Side

    The hookup culture that has largely replaced dating on college campuses has been viewed, in many quarters, as socially corrosive and ultimately toxic to women, who seemingly have little choice but to participate. Actually, it is an engine of female progress—one being harnessed and driven by women themselves.

    By Hanna Rosin
    September 2012 ATLANTIC MAGAZINE

    Girl Land, like so much writing about young women and sexuality, concentrates on what has been lost. The central argument holds that women have effectively been duped by a sexual revolution that persuaded them to trade away the protections of (and from) young men. In return, they were left even more vulnerable and exploited than before. Sexual liberation, goes the argument, primarily liberated men—to act as cads, using women for their own pleasures and taking no responsibility for the emotional wreckage that their behavior created. The men hold all the cards, and the women put up with it because now it’s too late to zip it back up, so they don’t have a choice.

    But this analysis downplays the unbelievable gains women have lately made, and, more important, it forgets how much those gains depend on sexual liberation. Single young women in their sexual prime—that is, their 20s and early 30s, the same age as the women at the business-­school party—are for the first time in history more success­ful, on average, than the single young men around them. They are more likely to have a college degree and, in aggregate, they make more money. What makes this remarkable development possible is not just the pill or legal abortion but the whole new landscape of sexual freedom—the ability to delay marriage and have temporary relationships that don’t derail education or career. To put it crudely, feminist progress right now largely depends on the existence of the hookup culture. And to a surprising degree, it is women—not men—who are perpetuating the culture, especially in school, cannily manipulating it to make space for their success, always keeping their own ends in mind. For college girls these days, an overly serious suitor fills the same role an accidental pregnancy did in the 19th century: a danger to be avoided at all costs, lest it get in the way of a promising future.”

    http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2012/09/boys-on-the-side/309062/

    Like

  53. Re: hook up culture. that’s fascinating. and completely different than what i’m seeing among my single friends. perhaps it is the age difference. all the 30s something i know (women) constantly bemoan the lack of date-able men. Duh. they’re dating hooking up with 20-somethings or married.

    [edited]

    Like

  54. Actually, nova both of my girls are dating or whatever (wink wink) younger men. All the men their age in grad school were already married, with kids, most of them. They both spent a lot of time on their education and didn’t take men seriously until now. The youngest was on course for marriage, kids, career at 22 but that didn’t work out. It’s an interesting dynamic I think. I just got off the phone with the youngest (30) and she’s torn between two 24 year olds right now……………….lol. The last guy she dated was 40 and a river rat but he wasn’t smart enough even though he was intriguing and gave her a run for the money out in the wilderness.

    Like

  55. jnc:

    Not sure how you feel about this. I think the only plank missing from the GOP platform now is that men be forced to go back to wearing hats and women nylons in public for all the jobs it would create.

    From the FT

    “The gold standard has returned to mainstream U.S. politics for the first time in 30 years, with a “gold commission” set to become part of official Republican party policy.

    Drafts of the party platform, which it will adopt at a convention in Tampa Bay, Florida, next week, call for an audit of Federal Reserve monetary policy and a commission to look at restoring the link between the dollar and gold.

    The move shows how five years of easy monetary policy — and the efforts of congressman Ron Paul — have made the once-fringe idea of returning to gold-as-money a legitimate part of Republican debate.”

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/48770752

    Like

  56. Simon Johnson gives us a review of Ted Kaufman’s new book. I really like him (Kaufman) so I might have to read this one.

    After a long summer of high-profile scandals – JPMorgan Chase trading, Barclays rate-fixing, HSBC money-laundering and more – the debate about the financial sector is becoming livelier.

    Why has it has become so excessively dominated by relatively few very large companies? What damage can it do to the rest of us? What reasonable policy changes could bring global megabanks more nearly under control? And why is this unlikely to happen?

    If any of these questions interest you – or keep you awake at night – you should take another look at the last time we had this debate at the national level, and reflect on the work of Ted Kaufman, the former Democratic senator from Delaware, who was far ahead of almost everyone in recognizing the problem and thinking about what to do.

    Senator Kaufman represented Delaware in 2009 and 2010, and Jeff Connaughton – his chief of staff – has a new book that puts you in the room. In “The Payoff: Why Wall Street Always Wins,” we see Senator Kaufman as chairman of oversight hearings on the Justice Department and the F.B.I.’s pursuit of financial fraud, pushing the Securities and Exchange Commission on the dangerous rise of computerized trading and working with Senator Sherrod Brown, Democratic of Ohio, on the legislative fight to impose a hard cap on the size and debts of our largest banks.

    Like

    • Why has it has become so excessively dominated by relatively few very large companies?

      Because the most expedient thing to do in a crisis is to force the strong to buy the weak. The strong (B of A, Wells Fargo, J.P. Morgan) were forced to buy the weak (Countrywide, Washington Mutual, Wachovia). Basically, Numbers 1, 2, and 3 were forced to buy #4, 5, and 6. Bank of America was already bumping up against the 20% deposit cap before the crisis.

      So that is why you have such huge banks right now. Once the losses (and liabilities) are finally dealt with, I expect B of A to spin off Merrill (Countrywide is probably worthless), and maybe JP Morgan to spin off Chase. That will probably unlock shareholder value quicker than trying to manage the whole enchilada. Will we return to the “Money Center” banks like Chemical, Chase, and Manny Hanny? Perhaps. I don’t know. But I suspect “nimble” pure plays will get more of a multiple than the stodgy behemouths, which means spin-offs and divestitures will become in vogue again, just like they were in the 70s after the big conglomerates crashed and burned.

      Like

  57. This probably won’t go over very well here but I think it’s important for the men to know what some women are thinking about the Ryan pick and what it says about Romney and the direction of the Republican party. The last time we argued about some of these issues the few women here who voiced our concerns were unable to convince most of you that these were legitimate issues that could sway the results of the election. I guess we’ll have to wait and see. I realize conservative women aren’t necessarily concerned and must agree with Ryan’s opinions but I’m not sure that encompasses the majority of women, and we do vote.

    Ryan is one of sixty-four Congressional co-sponsors of HR 212, a “personhood” bill that gives legal rights to fertilized eggs. Last November a similar measure was soundly defeated by 57 percent of voters in that liberal bastion, Mississippi. (Mississippi!) Ryan co-sponsored a bill too extreme for a state that has only one abortion clinic, a state whose policies have effectively made it impossible for most doctors to perform—or for most women to access—an abortion. It may be time to update the title of Nina Simone’s iconic song from “Mississippi Goddam” to “Paul Ryan Goddam.” Ryan’s role in HR 212 isn’t just the symbolic co-sponsorship of a bill with little likelihood of passage. He explicitly articulated his case for personhood in a 2010 Heritage Foundation article, in which he parrots the familiar conservative case that America’s failure to recognize fetuses as persons is the same as our nation’s historical failure to recognize the humanity of enslaved black people. Therefore, Roe v. Wade is the twentieth-century equivalent of the 1857 Dred Scott decision.

    With Ryan and women’s health, there is no middle ground; there is only his moral judgment. And despite his avowed libertarianism on economic issues, on women’s health and rights Ryan is willing to use the full force of government to limit the freedom of dissenting citizens to exercise their opposing judgments.

    True, Ryan is merely running for vice president—and with the singular exception of Dick Cheney, vice presidents haven’t had much significant policy influence. But with the Ryan pick, Romney has signaled that his moderation on women’s health issues is over. He is casting his lot with the most extreme elements of the anti-choice movement. It should hardly be surprising, then, that within a week of the announcement, GOP Senate candidate Todd Akin told Fox News that he saw little reason to consider abortion in the case of rape or incest, because pregnancy rarely results from sexual assault. According to Akin, “If it’s legitimate rape, the female body has ways to try to shut that whole thing down.” Romney and other Republicans swiftly denounced the remark, but it’s easy to see why a Ryan candidacy might have led Akin to believe that such a position would be acceptable.

    If that Heritage article is the one I’m thinking of, Ryan never once used the words woman or girl which I thought was a telling absence. I’ve steered clear of this subject since the last kerfuffle but I can’t avoid it now that it’s become a campaign issue again. Most women, I think, are as interested in economic and health care issues as a campaign issue as men are, unless they feel cornered on reproductive rights. I believe, unfortunately for them, Republicans can’t seem to resist their urge to do just that. These issues are every bit as important to me as civil liberty issues as I’m pretty confident that none of my daughters, nieces, or granddaughters will ever face arrest as an enemy of the state but they may face difficulties as women if Republicans gain too much power. I guess I’ll have to vote for the Democrats again.

    Like

    • lms (from the article):

      But with the Ryan pick, Romney has signaled that his moderation on women’s health issues is over.

      I had no idea that Ryan had an “extreme” position on, say, breast cancer.  Any idea what that position is?

      (from your own comments)

      Most women, I think, are as interested in economic and health care issues as a campaign issue as men are, unless they feel cornered on reproductive rights. I believe, unfortunately for them, Republicans can’t seem to resist their urge to do just that.

      I am unaware of any Republican who wants to prevent women from exercising their right to reproduce.  Any concern about “reproductive rights” seems entirely misplaced to me.

      Like

  58. lms

    Usually it’s me and jnc going back to back in a biker bar, but today I got yours!

    Like

  59. lol John, thanks. I used to love biker bars.

    Like

  60. Do you still have the chaps?

    Like

  61. “lmsinca, on August 24, 2012 at 6:42 am said:

    This probably won’t go over very well here but I think it’s important for the men to know what some women are thinking about the Ryan pick and what it says about Romney and the direction of the Republican party. The last time we argued about some of these issues the few women here who voiced our concerns were unable to convince most of you that these were legitimate issues that could sway the results of the election. I guess we’ll have to wait and see. I realize conservative women aren’t necessarily concerned and must agree with Ryan’s opinions but I’m not sure that encompasses the majority of women, and we do vote”

    I doubt either yourself or the author of the article was going to vote for Romney anyway, regardless of who he picked as a running mate. I see this as a base turnout election and that’s the context in which Romney picked Ryan.

    I also reject the meme that “access” equates to having medical services paid for by other people.

    My general position on abortion will probably annoy everyone in that I believe that legal abortion is a good idea and good public policy that has nothing to do with the Constitution.

    Like

  62. Lms, can Ryan or Romney change abortion law as it stands now?

    Also, is there an extreme pro-choice position?

    Like

  63. “banned, on August 23, 2012 at 5:29 pm said:

    jnc:

    Not sure how you feel about this.”

    I don’t necessarily support a return to the gold standard per se, but I would like to see the Fed’s dual mandate eliminated and a statutory formula used to determine the money supply rather than leave it to the judgement of the Federal Reserve and thus allow them the use of monetary policy in an attempt to “goose” the quarterly growth rate at the expense of savers.

    The goal of monetary policy should be to keep the money supply stable and avoid both inflation and deflation.

    Like

  64. lms:

    The last time we argued about some of these issues the few women here who voiced our concerns were unable to convince most of you that these were legitimate issues that could sway the results of the election.

    Interesting that you phrased it that way, when I just got done reading this article.

    And do you still have the chaps???

    Like

  65. “Troll McWingnut or George, whichever, on August 24, 2012 at 7:56 am said:

    Lms, can Ryan or Romney change abortion law as it stands now?

    Also, is there an extreme pro-choice position?”

    Abortion for sex selection of the child probably comes pretty close. Presumably abortion due to potential sexual orientation if it can be determined by genetic testing would also fit there. Basically eugenics practiced by the parents instead of the state.

    Like

  66. Sorry all, as I never really know what’s going to generate a conversation and I’m on the way out for an appointment, and also have a busy afternoon and evening, I probably should have held off on this comment until tomorrow. I’ll get back to it then if anyone’s still interested……………….or not……………….whatever you want.

    Most girls have the bad boy or two they dated, mine was a biker………………….lol. No chaps though.

    Happy Friday

    Like

  67. lms:

    I think it’s important for the men to know what some women are thinking about the Ryan pick and what it says about Romney and the direction of the Republican party.

    My mom’s going to vote for Romney-Ryan because they are handsome and Republican. Oh, and because Obama is black.

    Like

  68. Mike:

    I had a tech who voted for GWB in 2000 because he was “cute”. She is now an MD (Ob/Gyn in Denver) who has never voted for a Republican since. I suppose there’s no hope for your mom??

    Like

  69. Michi:

    My mom’s 79. She’s not changing her mind (or her party registration).

    Like

  70. Mike:

    There’s always hope. My dad (76) voted for Obama, and probably will again given that Romney is the nominee. People in MI generally don’t like Mitt much, despite his dad’s stint as governor there.

    Like

  71. Mike and Michi

    My mom passed away early in 09 so was able to vote in the 2008 election. She had always voted the way my dad did, Republican, but that year voted for Obama. I was shocked really. My dad was gone already which was one issue, Palin was one issue and she decided to vote with the younger generation in the family, as she knew she wasn’t going to be around much longer.

    Like

  72. George

    Lms, can Ryan or Romney change abortion law as it stands now?

    No. The issue is not so much that for many of us as it’s the slow erosion we’ve seen over the last several years that has some of us worried. Remember the fertilized egg/fetus as a person is only a step away from outlawing abortion IMO. Maybe you don’t agree, or maybe you don’t think that would happen, but for us it’s a slippery slope argument.

    One of my greatest fears re the abortion issue is that if we make abortion illegal again, women will be sent to prison.

    I agree with jnc, re his statement on the extreme position of pro choice and disagree with all of those reasons for having an abortion. I’m all in favor of making it dependent on viability, early (12 to 16 weeks) and in the extreme cases of rape, incest and health of the mother.

    Like

  73. Scott

    We’ve already traveled down this road before. I think you know what I meant. Some of us consider abortion a reproductive and a health issue. As far as breast cancer goes I rather doubt Romney/Ryan are in favor of it. They would like to dismantle Planned Parenthood though, another subject we’ve already discussed.

    Like

    • lms:

      I think you know what I meant.

      Yes.  But I am on a personal crusade never to tolerate the terms of this particular debate to be framed in a false manner using politically calculated euphemisms.  The issue is not about “women’s health”.  It is about abortion.  The issue is not about “reproductive rights”.  It is about abortion.  The issue is not about killing babies.  It is about abortion.  If we are going to talk about abortion, lets talk about abortion.  Ryan has a controversial view on abortion law, not on “women’s health issues” or “reproductive rights”.

      Some of us consider abortion a reproductive and a health issue.

      It is certainly a reproductive issue, namely, the issue of at what point a woman should be disallowed from destroying what she has already reproduced.  But her right to reproduce or not is a non-issue. 

      And it can also be a health issue.  But women’s health issues range much wider than one single procedure.  It is wrong and deceptive to claim that a view on this procedure represents a view on “women’s health issues”. 

      As I said, these are both politically manufactured and calculated euphemisms used to frame and portray the debate in a deceptive way, and I plan on pointing it out whenever I run across them.

      Like

  74. Michi

    Thanks for that link. I’m old enough to remember being discriminated against as a woman and thankfully things have improved on that front. The author has a lot of great points to make though and I agree with her and think both of my daughters would as well. I could get into a bunch of examples but don’t have time today. I wonder if your experiences in the military mesh with her experiences and my daughters’.

    Like

  75. Lms, is a believing that partial birth abortion should be legal an extreme pro-choice position?

    Like

    • lms:

      I agree with jnc, re his statement on the extreme position of pro choice and disagree with all of those reasons for having an abortion.

      So do you think abortion should be illegal for the purposes of sex selection or (if it were possible) sexual orientation selection?

      Like

  76. Your choice Scott, we can debate the issues or the way the issues are stated. IMO reproductive issues encompass an entire group of political choices including abortion, access to affordable birth control, cancer and std screenings, prenatal care etc. etc. One of the providers for many of these services for underprivileged women and girls is Planned Parenthood. Republicans have tried and are trying to not only defund them but paint a portrait of them as an abortion factory so I don’t think my rhetoric is especially exceptional in that light.

    The more time you spend nitpicking my comments and links the less time I want to spend discussing issues with you. Have it your way though.

    Like

    • lms:

      Your choice Scott, we can debate the issues or the way the issues are stated.

      I think we can debate both, actually.

      …so I don’t think my rhetoric is especially exceptional in that light.

      I certainly agree that your rhetoric is not at all exceptional. It is standard issue liberal framing of the issue.  And I object to it.

      The more time you spend nitpicking my comments and links the less time I want to spend discussing issues with you.

      I don’t think it is nitpicking at all.  Language is very important in establishing the terms of a debate/discussion.  That’s exactly why the pro-baby-killing movement has invented these euphemisms, and why I object to them. (See what I did there?)

      Like

  77. George

    I can only speak for myself but I don’t approve of partial birth abortions. I understand there could be some medical emergencies for late term abortions but I will leave those up to the doctors. It’s my understanding that prior to the ban only 0.2 % of abortions were considered D & X which is the actual medical term I believe. Very sad situation those would be.

    I have to leave for the rest of the day………………………….manana

    Like

  78. That’s right Scott, I don’t believe those are legitimate reasons for abortion. How you prove that, I have no idea without criminalizing it, and I’m sure others disagree with me. I have a very limited time frame and condition regarding abortion and have never recommended the procedure to anyone personally, although I do know people who have had them, my own sister for one. I also had a friend who had an illegal abortion in high school that nearly killed her. Her mother took her to Mexico without her father’s permission.

    Now I really have to go again.

    Like

  79. Re: Republicans and women’s health issues, this may be of interest:

    “In June, Bush went to Zambia, where, as in much of Africa, he is widely admired for saving millions of lives through his administration’s investment of tens of billions of dollars to prevent and treat AIDS. Bush’s institute is now leading an $85 million effort, with such partners as the Susan G. Komen Foundation, pharmaceutical giants and the Obama administration, to protect African women from cervical cancer, a disease that is much more likely to afflict those infected with the HIV virus. In the past six weeks, a Bush-funded clinic had screened hundreds of women. “We crossed the 500 line yesterday!” Doyin Oluwole, who heads the initiative, exclaimed to a colleague at the institute’s headquarters at Southern Methodist.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/george-w-bush-doesnt-miss-the-swamp-of-politics/2012/08/23/87abdfee-ed3c-11e1-a80b-9f898562d010_story_2.html

    Like

  80. I’ll add my two cents’ worth, since I’m more liberal in this area than lms is.

    I think abortion for sex selection (or sexual orientation selection) is so far beyond the pale that it doesn’t even belong in a reasoned discussion about abortion. I think partial birth abortions should absolutely be allowed if the the woman and her doctor think it’s necessary.

    Like

    • Mich:

      I think abortion for sex selection (or sexual orientation selection) is so far beyond the pale that it doesn’t even belong in a reasoned discussion about abortion.

      So having an abortion because you don’t want a boy is beyond the pale, but having an abortion because you don’t want either a boy or a girl is perfectly acceptable?

      If there is nothing wrong with aborting a pregnancy for the sake of convenience, what could possibly be wrong with aborting a pregnancy for the sake of getting the desired sex?

      Like

  81. “Michigoose, on August 24, 2012 at 1:12 pm said:

    I’ll add my two cents’ worth, since I’m more liberal in this area than lms is.

    I think abortion for sex selection (or sexual orientation selection) is so far beyond the pale that it doesn’t even belong in a reasoned discussion about abortion. I think partial birth abortions should absolutely be allowed if the the woman and her doctor think it’s necessary.”

    I think that once you accept that the woman is the person best qualified to make the decision about abortion then you have to leave the decision to her. Freedom means the freedom to make decisions that others disagree with. As a libertarian, I believe that any attempt to involve the state here will end up being counterproductive.

    Sex selection abortion is considerably more common overseas than here, but it’s part of the culture of certain immigrant groups.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sex-selective_abortion

    A bill to ban it failed recently.

    Like

  82. jnc:

    Sex selection abortion is considerably more common overseas than here, but it’s part of the culture of certain immigrant groups.

    I know, I just don’t agree with it.

    Like

  83. Scott:

    I guess because even I, pinko commie liberal that I am, have limits.

    Like

  84. “Michigoose, on August 24, 2012 at 1:54 pm said:

    Scott:

    I guess because even I, pinko commie liberal that I am, have limits.”

    I’d submit that once you concede it’s an exercise in line drawing, there’s no good reason to prefer judicial line drawing over the democratic process.

    Like

  85. jnc:

    Which is why I prefer your stand on the issue–the state should get the hell out of the issue. . . and why, while I don’t think that abortion should be used for sex selection, I’m not out picketing against it or agitating for the House to pass legislation about it.

    Like

    • Mich:

      and why, while I don’t think that abortion should be used for sex selection, I’m not out picketing against it or agitating for the House to pass legislation about it.

      I am having trouble understanding that within the context of:

      I think abortion for sex selection (or sexual orientation selection) is so far beyond the pale that it doesn’t even belong in a reasoned discussion about abortion. I think partial birth abortions should absolutely be allowed if the the woman and her doctor think it’s necessary.

      I initially interpreted this as saying that you think sex-selection abortion should not be allowed while partial birth abortion should be allowed. But now you seem to be saying otherwise. I guess I don’t get what you mean by “so far beyond the pale”.

      Like

  86. OT:

    “Anders Behring Breivik, the man who killed 77 people in a bomb attack and gun rampage just over a year ago, was judged to be sane by a Norwegian court Friday, as he was sentenced to 21 years in prison.”

    Quite a difference in penalty from what Breivik would get in the US — 21 years vs. DP/life without parole.

    Interesting.

    Like

  87. I guess what I should have said (partially in response to George’s question up-thread and partly in response to yours) is that I would consider abortion for sex selection, but not partial birth abortion, an extreme pro-choice position. I don’t think that a woman who had an abortion for that reason would be able to persuade me that there was a valid reason for using abortion in that manner and I’m fairly far out there on the abortion rights issue.

    I think that all abortions should be “allowed” if you want to use that word–like jnc I don’t think that the state should be involved in drawing that line.

    Like

    • Mich:

      I don’t think that the state should be involved in drawing that line.

      I find that hard to believe. Surely you think the line should be drawn by the state at some point prior to, at least, graduation from college.

      Like

  88. Scott:

    Well, there have been a few college students over the years that I would have gotten rid of. . . but, no I couldn’t go that far.

    While I’m sure that there would be exceptions, I don’t think that a woman who was callous enough to wake up some morning 8.5 months along and decide “Hey, you know what? I’ve changed my mind. Get it out now!” would be able to find a doctor to go along with that. I guess I have enough faith in my fellow human beings to think that each woman and her doctor would make the right decision for her in her unique circumstances rather than a broadbrush treatment that doesn’t make anybody happy.

    Like

    • Mich:

      I don’t think that a woman who was callous enough to wake up some morning 8.5 months along and decide “Hey, you know what? I’ve changed my mind. Get it out now!” would be able to find a doctor to go along with that.

      I think you can find someone to do pretty much whatever you want. I am also curious about what kind of unique circumstance could possibly necessitate a partial birth abortion.

      But, in any event, the point of my snark about graduating from college is simply that you are fooling yourself if you think your position is that the state shouldn’t draw a line. The question isn’t whether, but when, it draws that line.

      Hope you enjoy the Rangpur.

      Like

  89. Thanks–I’ll let you know what I think about the Rangpur!

    Oh, and since I know you’re such a stickler for the right word and since you were wondering about circumstances. . .

    But “partial-birth” is not a medical term. It’s a political one, and a highly confusing one at that, with both sides disagreeing even on how many procedures take place, at what point in pregnancy, and exactly which procedures the law actually bans.

    Like

    • Mich:

      and since I know you’re such a stickler for the right word

      I’ve got nothing against using layman’s terms instead of medical ones, especially given that I am a layman and not a medical professional. And contrary to your link I don’t think the term is confusing at all…it quite accurately and concisely describes what occurs.

      Like

  90. Scott

    That’s exactly why the pro-baby-killing movement has invented these euphemisms, and why I object to them. (See what I did there?)

    Yes an eighth grader could see it. Unfortunately, I think you also made an unfounded comparison. By comparing what I wrote to the pro-life moment calling liberals who support choice “baby killers”, you’ve now gone overboard yourself. A more apt comparison would be if I called the pro-life movement, or Romney/Ryan who seem to support it, “doctor killers”.

    You practically agreed with me as it is.

    It is certainly a reproductive issue,…………………………And it can also be a health issue.

    See what I did there?

    Like

    • lms:

      You practically agreed with me as it is.

      I agreed with what you said in one post, but objected to what you said in another. Because they were two different things.

      Like

  91. Like I said, they just can’t seem to help themselves.

    TAMPA — Delegates drafting the Republican party’s official platform here keep adding more language expressing their opposition to abortion.

    Now they’ve endorsed language saying that opposing abortion upholds the dignity of women. And they’ve also included language asking that drugs that end pregnancy after conception, including RU-486, not be allowed.

    They adopted the latter plank over the objections of GOP delegate Jacqueline Curtiss, who said it was important that the party show “sensitivity” in the wake of comments from Rep. Todd Akin of Missouri about rape and abortion. She said Plan B (better known as the “morning-after pill” has been a proven effective way of averting pregnancy in cases of rape and she wanted to be sure the platform would not support banning the drug.

    Curtiss was assured by another delegate that the platform would not ban Plan B, because Plan B is intended to disrupt conception from taking place. (Some Republicans, including Mitt Romney, have described morning-after pills as abortive.)

    Like

  92. And here’s Dana Milbank giving us a hint of what else we can expect from the Republican platform when it’s released on Monday.

    Officially, the platform writers proclaimed themselves proud of their policy compendium. “This is a document that the majority of the American people are going to find that they agree with,” announced Rep. Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee, a platform co-chair.

    Their actions suggest otherwise. The Republican National Committee won’t release until Monday the full text of its platform, so the few reporters covering the platform debate, including Helderman, had to piece together what was happening based on committee members’ comments.

    Even under those restrictions, reporters there were able to learn of the plight of Jackie Curtiss. A 22-year-old, pro-life platform delegate from Alabama, she tried unsuccessfully to persuade her fellow Republicans to alter the platform language so that it did not appear to be banning the morning-after pill and so that it did not endorse abstinence-only sex ed.

    “We’re pro-life and we don’t want to compromise our principles,” she said later. “But we do want to be more realistic.”

    Realism, however, was not a platform plank. Ideological purity was. “The platform appears to be the most conservative platform in modern history,” committee member Russ Walker boasted to the Washington Times.

    There can be no dispute about this. When one platform-committee member tried to tone down the Republicans’ opposition to gay marriage, Kobach objected, likening gay people to drug users and polygamists.

    Like

  93. jnc

    I doubt either yourself or the author of the article was going to vote for Romney anyway, regardless of who he picked as a running mate. I see this as a base turnout election and that’s the context in which Romney picked Ryan.

    Just saw this one jnc. True, I was never going to vote for Romney, even if he chose Hillary Clinton as a running mate. I was however considering not voting for Obama. My point in linking The Nation piece was that the issue I and a few others raised previously, re the Republican Party alienating more moderate women, was perhaps more valid than we were given credit for. We don’t even have to make up or take comments out of context to get there.

    Like

    • lms:

      My point in linking The Nation piece was that the issue I and a few others raised previously, re the Republican Party alienating more moderate women, was perhaps more valid than we were given credit for.

      I’m guessing “moderate women” means something different to you than me. For example, I wouldn’t consider women who are essentially single issue voters focusing exclusively on maintaining the Roe regime to be “moderate”.

      I also wonder what evidence might suffice to convince you that “moderate women” have not been alienated from the Republican party. For example, is there a percentage of women voters voting for Republicans that would suggest otherwise? Or are women who vote for Republicans by definition not “moderate” in your view?

      Like

  94. scott

    I wouldn’t consider women who are essentially single issue voters focusing exclusively on maintaining the Roe regime to be “moderate”.

    I wouldn’t either. I happen to believe Republicans, and thereby Romney, have gotten off the track again by selecting Ryan as their VP pick. They intended to appeal to women on economic issues which I indicated in my first comment I believe is a valid and debatable appeal that women are interested in, but now they’ve become mired in issues that will not attract more women, especially if they’re undecided. Perhaps I’m wrong but it’s the way I see it. Obama needs minorities and women, Romney needs white men and a few more women.

    And no, women aren’t single issue voters any more than men are, IMO.

    The easiest way to view whites’ voting tendencies is through the prism of education and gender. In 2008, Obama won a 52 percent majority of white women with at least a four-year college degree; these voters tend to be socially liberal and open to activist government. But he captured just 43 percent or less among the other three quadrants of whites: men with college degrees, and white men and women without them.

    Romney’s team hopes to increase his vote share to three-fifths among college-educated white men and two-thirds among blue-collar white men. But his advisers believe the election will be decided mostly by whether Romney can make smaller gains among white women. Most polls show Obama maintaining or exceeding his strong 2008 showing with college-plus white women (he’s polling above 60 percent with them in some key states); Romney’s campaign hopes to recapture some of these voters by stressing the increased federal debt their children will inherit after Obama’s term. Romney’s team considers it even more imperative to reverse the recent gains that Obama has recorded among blue-collar white women by his effective portrayal of the GOP nominee as an out-of-touch plutocrat. Attacks against Obama’s record on spending and welfare will be Romney’s key strategy there.

    http://news.yahoo.com/obama-needs-80-minority-vote-win-2012-presidential-084117309.html

    Like

    • lms:

      I happen to believe Republicans, and thereby Romney, have gotten off the track again by selecting Ryan as their VP pick. They intended to appeal to women on economic issues which I indicated in my first comment I believe is a valid and debatable appeal that women are interested in, but now they’ve become mired in issues that will not attract more women, especially if they’re undecided.

      If they gotten mired in it, it is only because Dems are trying to make it so. Neither Ryan nor Romney have made abortion a centerpiece, or even a topic at all, of the campaign. The Dems and their media proxies have. And it was inevitable regardless of who was chosen. It is naive to believe that Romney could possibly have chosen any other Republican – anyone at all – that would have prevented the Dems from attacking the chosen candidate for some position that had been taken in the past.

      This is what opposing political parties do. No matter who was chosen, there would be some portion of the Dems attacking the person as being an outrageous choice for one reason or another, and then another portion trying to establish as conventional wisdom that the choice was a mortal, self-inflicted wound, in an attempt to make it a self-fulfilling prophecy.

      It really is a predictable and transparent strategy.

      And no, women aren’t single issue voters any more than men are, IMO.

      Who suggested otherwise? I did not make a comment about women voters as a class. I made a comment about a subset of women voters, ie those that are single issue voters. Which, of course, some are.

      Like

  95. Scott

    Or are women who vote for Republicans by definition not “moderate” in your view?

    I don’t believe I’ve indicated I hold that view. Is the young woman above in the pieces I linked regarding the Republican platform a moderate………………….I have no idea, but she does seem to believe Republicans are going too far by wanting to ban Plan B or advocate for abstinence only sex education. I’ve also heard of Republican women who object to the attacks on Planned Parenthood as some of them are also involved in advocacy for “women’s health and reproductive issues” for the poor.

    I suppose if Republicans can divert attention from their apparent views on abortion, rape and Planned Parenthood in time for the election they may succeed in picking up a few more womens’ votes, otherwise by their own forecasts they may lose. We probably won’t know until after the election.

    Like

  96. Scott

    It is naive to believe that Romney could possibly have chosen any other Republican – anyone at all – that would have prevented the Dems from attacking the chosen candidate for some position that had been taken in the past.

    Obviously, so not naive, and hence followed by the below comment;

    This is what opposing political parties do

    Also obvious.

    None of that however precludes my objections, as well as other womens’, moderate or otherwise, to the policies being advocated across the country by Paul Ryan et al regarding issues that affect women regardless of how you or I choose to label them as abortion rights, reproductive rights, health issues or a return to the days of back alley abortions (see what I did there?).

    Like

    • lms:

      None of that however precludes my objections

      Perhaps. But I was commenting on your suggestion that picking Ryan was bad for R’s, which is pretty much what Dems always say and what I would expect a Dem to say no matter who was picked. So not particularly convincing.

      see what I did there?

      Yes. You tried to change the topic.

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  97. Scott

    Who suggested otherwise?

    Just checking and clarifying.

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  98. Have a nice Sat. Scott…………………..I’m back to work for now.

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  99. Scott

    Yes. You tried to change the topic.

    Actually no, you said the subject was abortion. I tried to show you what me being a one issue voter, political operative, radical left wing propagandist would have said as opposed to what I actually did say up thread. I’m very careful how I frame my arguments and the language I use, and while it may not be up to snuff in your book I am trying to be, if not neutral (because I’m not), then at least not a siren.

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    • lms:

      Actually no, you said the subject was abortion…

      I think you are mixing up comments. The comment of mine to which you responded this morning was addressing whether or not Romney had hurt his electoral chances by selecting Ryan, and my dismissal of that claim on the basis that the same thing would be said no matter who he picked.

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  100. Scott

    We were discussing two or more issues actually. I’ve been attempting to respond to all of them. We disagree that by picking Ryan, Romney will lose ground with women who are essential to a Romney win. Just yesterday he was trying to put the focus back on women and economic issues by appealing to female owned businesses and entrepreneurs in Iowa. Perhaps that will do the trick and divert attention away from the abortion issue and Ryan’s “extreme” views, I have no idea.

    Also, obviously Democrats will try to capitalize on Akin’s comments and bring up both Romney and Ryan’s views re abortion, Planned Parenthood, insurance access to birth control, fertilized egg as person etc., politics as usual but I believe valid just the same. Ryan in particular has very conservative views and has backed some controversial legislation which may not appeal to undecided voters, especially women.

    I also tried to argue that women are watching these issues in larger numbers than men realize, or want to admit, and some of them have perhaps not made up their minds yet and may be the moderates in both parties…………….we’ll have to wait and see I guess.

    And lastly you said this;

    But I am on a personal crusade never to tolerate the terms of this particular debate to be framed in a false manner using politically calculated euphemisms. The issue is not about “women’s health”. It is about abortion. The issue is not about “reproductive rights”. It is about abortion. The issue is not about killing babies. It is about abortion. If we are going to talk about abortion, lets talk about abortion. Ryan has a controversial view on abortion law, not on “women’s health issues” or “reproductive rights”.

    And so I was also arguing that my language was not particularly egregious considering the subject and my strong opinions on the topic. I have been holding back actually.

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    • lms:

      And so I was also arguing that my language was not particularly egregious considering the subject and my strong opinions on the topic.

      Strong opinions or not, I will always object when you set the terms of the discussion using misleading euphemisms which smuggle in disputed or false premises.

      I have been holding back actually.

      Not on my account, I hope.

      Rationality, I think, is only one aspect of morality though and the portion of the drone piece you used to justify the rational foundation of morality had much more to do with self preservation than anything else which is a foundation of something completely different than morality, imo.

      A real analysis would require a lengthy discussion, but in brief I think the concept of morality springs from the human need to make conscious choices in order to attain values, and the ultimate value, indeed the value from which springs forth all others, is life. Morality is not about the instinctual will to survive, but it is about rationally determining how we do so as individuals.

      I was curious about your thoughts on non-human rational beings after I read this from the other day so I think you’ve cleared that up for me anyway.

      Yeah, I was just trying to articulate a principle in the broadest way so as to include not just what we know is, but what might be.

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  101. I will always object when you set the terms of the discussion using misleading euphemisms which smuggle in disputed or false premises.

    You’re entitled to your objections. I’ve never been called a smuggler before……..I kind of like it.

    I have been holding back actually.

    Not on my account, I hope.

    Sometimes, but mostly in the interest of ATiM.

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  102. Scott

    No need to hold back for me.

    Well, your demand for precision tempers my comments………………..I thought that’s what you wanted, precision. I don’t always have the time to be overly cautious with language so I skip the comment I wanted to make and by the time I’ve had the chance to think about it a little more and clarify my thoughts and how to express them, my interest has waned.

    And now I’m back to work.

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