Morning Report 8/20/12

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures 1412.7 -2.5 -0.18%
Eurostoxx Index 2468.5 -3.1 -0.12%
Oil (WTI) 95.73 -0.3 -0.29%
LIBOR 0.434 -0.001 -0.23%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 82.64 0.040 0.05%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.82% 0.01%
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 191.8 0.4

Markets are weaker this morning on no real news.  The next two weeks should be pretty quiet as August winds down. There are no real market-moving economic releases this week, except possibly the FOMC minutes, which will be released Wednesday afternoon. Bonds and MBS are flat.

The Chicago Fed National Activity index improved slightly in July to -.13, but is still below zero, meaning the economy is growing below trend. June was revised downward. The plus is that the index is still above -.7, the level that starts indicating a recession.

Has Mario Draghi picked up Hank Paulson’s bazooka?  The Bundesbank and the ECB are reacting to a Der Spiegel story which says the ECB is looking to “cap” sovereign interest rates.  Which means they have to be willing to buy any and all government bonds at a set price. The ECB has characterized the article as “misleading.” Paging Mr. Soros…

The latest in the San Bernardino Eminent Domain saga.

22 Responses

  1. Worth a read:

    “Cautious Moves on Foreclosures Haunting Obama
    By BINYAMIN APPELBAUM
    Published: August 19, 2012 ”

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  2. Thanks for the link jnc

    We know people, one was our son’s best friend, an injured firefighter, who tried early on to work through HAMP and this was their experience.

    And there were unsettling stories about mortgage companies repeatedly losing paperwork, rejecting qualified applicants and, with surprising frequency, foreclosing on the very customers they had just agreed to help.

    Actually, it was even worse than the above quote from the NYTimes piece. As always jnc, I believe just as you do that cramdown through bankruptcy would have been the best option. All of the people we know who went through this lost their homes even though they all had the potential to get back on their feet with a little help. In one case the home sold at auction for much less than the bank would have received at a short sale, which they had numerous offers on but the bank kept stalling.

    Another black mark on the Administration and banks in my book.

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  3. If they intend to buy up everything over a set price, it won’t be a bazooka, as Robert Shaw would say, we’re going to need a bigger boat.

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  4. Item that was mentioned on Friday’s “Real Time with Bill Maher” about Obama’s donor problems.

    “Schmooze or Lose
    Obama doesn’t like cozying up to billionaires. Could it cost him the election?
    by Jane Mayer August 27, 2012”

    http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2012/08/27/120827fa_fact_mayer

    Related piece from Maureen Dowd:

    “The Ungrateful President
    By MAUREEN DOWD
    Published: August 7, 2012”

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  5. The Morning Plum over on PlumLine made this observation:

    “* Obama botched response to housing crisis: Binjamin Applebaum has a deep dive into one of the least reported stories of the Obama presidency: The sharp contrast between the administration’s aggressive response to the banking and auto-industry crises and its failure to act to alleviate ailing homeowners. As the story details, this could end up being a key decision imperiling Obama’s reelection chances.”

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/the-morning-plum-what-does-paul-ryan-really-believe-about-abortion/2012/08/20/ea0de6d0-eaaf-11e1-9ddc-340d5efb1e9c_blog.html

    What is missing from this analysis is that the approach the administration took to banking, “Pretend and Extend” was in direct tension with any sort of active response to reduce mortgage debt, as each mortgage was and is considered an asset on the banks books.

    Cramdown should have been done as part of TARP while the TARP money was still backstopping the banks capital requirements, but once the banks were allowed to repay the TARP money so that the could resume paying bonuses, any aggressive write down of mortgage debt would have most likely rendered them legally insolvent and required FDIC action.

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  6. The Dowd piece is interesting. People covet those signed photographs. They’re not paying for the rubber chicken that’s served. It’s really odd — to not even send a thank you note.

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  7. I’m going to miss my Senator. Regardless of whomever wins in Virginia, George Allen or Tim Kaine, they are both poor substitutes for Jim Webb.

    “The South China Sea’s Gathering Storm
    August 19, 2012, 5:53 p.m. ET
    By JAMES WEBB”

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444184704577587483914661256.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_LEADTop

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  8. Magical thinking birth control. I wasn’t going to bring this up but luckily a lot of GOP candidates and others are distancing themselves from this guy. He did say he misspoke. How does someone running for the Senate get to be this ridiculous…………..yes I know we have our ridiculous people as well. “Legitimate rape” as opposed to what?

    Rep. Todd Akin (R-Mo.) justified his extreme opposition to abortion by claiming that victims of “legitimate rape” rarely get pregnant.

    In an interview with KTVI-TV on Sunday, the GOP Senate nominee was asked if he supported abortion in the case of rape.

    “From what I understand from doctors, that’s really rare,” said Akin said of pregnancy caused by rape. “If it’s a legitimate rape, the female body has ways to try to shut that whole thing down. But let’s assume maybe that didn’t work or something. I think there should be some punishment, but the punishment ought to be on the rapist.”

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  9. The (only) amusing aspect of that story is that his opponent, Claire McCaskill, doesn’t want him replaced by the national GOP as that would “invalidate the votes of Missourians”.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/20/claire-mccaskill-todd-akin-legitimate-rape_n_1810351.html

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  10. She must think she can beat him now……………………..lol

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  11. I wonder if CM is unpopular enough that Akin will “Blumenthal” her. Dude lied about serving in Vietnam and still won. (As did Chuck Hagel.) which is worse I wonder?

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  12. As Maureen Dowd’s Biggest Fan™, I found her rant on Obama’s uppityness oddly hollow. Clearly one of her Hollywood connections (Aaron Sorkin used to give her designer shoes as tokens of his affection) put a bug in her ear. Obviously Obama has pissed off somebody with his alleged aloofness. They are probably just out of sort because Barack is not nearly the starfucker (and I use that word entirely metaphorically) that Bill Clinton was.

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  13. I see your posts Yellow. Dowd’s column struck me as pretty much the same in tone and temperament as her usual ones. She just typically doesn’t target President Obama.

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  14. “They are probably just out of sort because Barack is not nearly the starfucker ”

    what’s the point of being a star then?

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  15. Dowd has been very critical of Obama in the past, and the issue of aloofness is not the first time she has brought it up.

    So the novelistic tension of the 2008 race is this: Can Obama overcome his pride and Hyde Park hauteur and win America over?

    Obama, on the other hand, may seem esoteric, and sometimes looks haughty or put-upon when he should merely offer that ensorcelling smile.

    Obama can be aloof and dismissive at times, and he’s certainly self-regarding, carrying the aura of the Ivy faculty club.

    Her snark knows no bounds or political affiliation. She got her Pulitzer for dogging Clinton over being a horndog.

    Pardon my lack of links, but they are all from various NYT columns and should be easily google-able. Or you could read selected items from my currently on-hiatus blog about Maureen Dowd.

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  16. I bet he steps asidie. Sen. Brown called for him to step aside.
    The bigger deal is this:

    Sen. John Cornyn, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, has released a statement suggesting Rep. Todd Akin should think hard about what to do about his rape remarks. “Congressman Akin’s statements were wrong, offensive, and indefensible. I recognize that this is a difficult time for him, but over the next twenty-four hours, Congressman Akin should carefully consider what is best for him, his family, the Republican Party, and the values that he cares about and has fought for throughout his career in public service,” Cornyn said.

    cornyn can cut off the funding. and he’ll be called to unless every GOP candidate wants to get painted with this

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  17. “Or you could read selected items from my currently on-hiatus blog about Maureen Dowd.”

    I’d say that you do manage to make a good case for the title of “Maureen Dowd’s Biggest Fan™”

    With regards to this:

    “Her snark knows no bounds or political affiliation. She got her Pulitzer for dogging Clinton over being a horndog.”

    Yes, she’ll call out Democrats for not living up to her standards, but it’s pretty obvious that she’s a liberal/progressive writer who primarily focuses on the Republicans. My main issue with her writing is the frequency with which she injects herself into the narrative. From the most recent column:

    “You can make the case,” Weinstein said of Barack Obama, “that he’s the Paul Newman of American presidents.”

    I interviewed Paul Newman. I knew Paul Newman. Paul Newman was an acquaintance of mine. Mr. President, except for the eyes, you are sort of like Paul Newman. “

    If you don’t come away from anything else in the column, make sure that you remember that Maureen Dowd knew Paul Newman.

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  18. My main issue with her writing is the frequency with which she injects herself into the narrative.

    You see it as a bug, I see it as a feature. Every column is a trainwreck of unique beauty.

    The character of Susan Berg on Political Animals is such an obvious Dowd-clone that Maureen should be getting royalties.

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  19. lms:

    She must think she can beat him now

    Don’t know if you knew this or not, but he’s pretty much her hand-picked opponent. The campaign looked at the three most likely contenders in MO’s Republican primary and decided that this Akins guy would be the easiest to beat (given that he’s got a long history of making comments like this) and so they campaigned for him.. Claire used those dog whistles like “among the most conservative members of Congress” and shot campaign ads supposedly attacking him–and with the “I’m Claire McCaskill and I approve this message” tagline–but really pushing for the base to vote for him. It worked, and he’s pretty much doing what they thought he’d do.

    He may have finally gone too far with this one, though (although I read somewhere that his wife doesn’t want him to drop out of the race, and that she’s even more extreme on social issues than he is. Eek!!).

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  20. Ruth Marcus makes the same point:

    “Then there is the sheer cynicism of Democrats’ attitude toward Akin, even predating his rape remarks. In the three-way Missouri GOP primary, Akin was the Democrats’ favorite Republican. No surprise there: He was the most conservative of the field, and therefore represented Sen. Claire McCaskill’s best shot at holding on to her endangered seat.

    The cynical twist was that a Democratic super PAC intervened in the primary to try to bolster Akin’s chances. Majority PAC, a group allied with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.), spent more than $1 million attacking the GOP front-runner, John Brunner.

    This maneuver isn’t unprecedented: the Patriot Majority PAC, run by a former Reid staffer, pulled the same stunt in Reid’s own race two years ago, intervening in the Republican primary to help propel tea party candidate Sharron Angle.

    This time around, McCaskill herself seemed to be meddling in the GOP primary, with ads blasting all three Republicans. But her critique of Akin as the “true conservative” in the race and a “crusader against bigger government” appeared designed more to bolster Akin than to hurt him — and it represented the vast majority of McCaskill’s spending.”

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/ruth-marcus-self-preservation-meet-cynicism/2012/08/20/a2d48f66-eb05-11e1-9ddc-340d5efb1e9c_story.html

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