Handicapping 2012

Posted on March 30, 2012 by Brent Nyitray
How are the markets currently handicapping the 2012 election?
Intrade currently has obama trading at about 60
Sporting Index (A UK spread betting index) has him at 62.
No, you can’t arbitrage the two.

Sporting Index Markets:
Intrade Obama Chart:

Filed under: 2012 |

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7 Responses

  1. Mike's avatar
    Mike, on March 30, 2012 at 9:33 am said:

    Brent:

    Someone has to be able to come up with a way to arbitrage Intrade and the Sporting Index, no?

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  2. Brent Nyitray's avatar
    Brent Nyitray, on March 30, 2012 at 9:46 am said:

    The bid/ask spreads are too wide. 62 is the midpoint for sporting index. You can buy obama at 67 and sell him at 57.

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  3. Mike's avatar
    Mike, on March 30, 2012 at 10:08 am said:

    Ah, gotcha.

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  4. Dave!'s avatar
    Dave!, on March 30, 2012 at 12:24 pm said:

    I am not a betting man at all. But I have to ask. Biden? Really? Why are there any odds on Biden? If you are going to include Biden, Mark should also be on the board…

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  5. Brent Nyitray's avatar
    Brent Nyitray, on March 30, 2012 at 12:28 pm said:

    @Dave,

    You can’t sell Biden but you can buy him. Obama could die before the election.

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  6. ScottC's avatar
    ScottC, on March 30, 2012 at 12:29 pm said:

    Dave:

    If you are going to include Biden, Mark should also be on the board…

    Very well….I’ll make the same market for Mark that they are making for Biden…0/.5. Any size you want.

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  7. ScottC's avatar
    ScottC, on March 30, 2012 at 12:30 pm said:

    Corked, sorta.

    Mark’s note: I could die before the election, too…

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