Handicapping 2012

How are the markets currently handicapping the 2012 election?
Intrade currently has obama trading at about 60
Sporting Index (A UK spread betting index) has him at 62.
No, you can’t arbitrage the two.

Sporting Index Markets:
Intrade Obama Chart:

7 Responses

  1. Brent:

    Someone has to be able to come up with a way to arbitrage Intrade and the Sporting Index, no?

    Like

  2. The bid/ask spreads are too wide. 62 is the midpoint for sporting index. You can buy obama at 67 and sell him at 57.

    Like

  3. Ah, gotcha.

    Like

  4. I am not a betting man at all. But I have to ask. Biden? Really? Why are there any odds on Biden? If you are going to include Biden, Mark should also be on the board…

    Like

  5. @Dave,

    You can’t sell Biden but you can buy him. Obama could die before the election.

    Like

  6. Dave:

    If you are going to include Biden, Mark should also be on the board…

    Very well….I’ll make the same market for Mark that they are making for Biden…0/.5. Any size you want.

    Like

  7. Corked, sorta.

    Mark’s note: I could die before the election, too…

    Like

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