Participate in the FL GOP primary!

Hope I embedded the poll properly.  But do vote … winner will get my vote on Jan. 31 (or earlier).

Rebuttal to Andrew Sullivan

Earlier in the week we read the Andrew Sullivan piece which lauded President Obama’s accomplishments and criticized those of us on the left, pundits and citizens alike, for not focusing on the long game.  Sullivan barely touched the issue of executive over reach, indefinite detention of American citizens, rule of law issues and erosion of the Bill of Rights.  He plainly intimated that as long as “we don’t torture”, we’re good to go.  I don’t think so.

Here is a rebuttal to Sullivan’s piece I discovered in The Atlantic.  It’s interesting that it was framed as a question to candidate Obama considering we’re working on our own 50 Questions.

After reading Andrew Sullivan’s Newsweek essay about President Obama, his critics, and his re-election bid, I implore him to ponder just one question. How would you have reacted in 2008 if any Republican ran promising to do the following?

(1) Codify indefinite detention into law; (2) draw up a secret kill list of people, including American citizens, to assassinate without due process; (3) proceed with warrantless spying on American citizens; (4) prosecute Bush-era whistleblowers for violating state secrets; (5) reinterpret the War Powers Resolution such that entering a war of choice without a Congressional declaration is permissible; (6) enter and prosecute such a war; (7) institutionalize naked scanners and intrusive full body pat-downs in major American airports; (8) oversee a planned expansion of TSA so that its agents are already beginning to patrol American highways, train stations, and bus depots; (9) wage an undeclared drone war on numerous Muslim countries that delegates to the CIA the final call about some strikes that put civilians in jeopardy; (10) invoke the state-secrets privilege to dismiss lawsuits brought by civil-liberties organizations on dubious technicalities rather than litigating them on the merits; (11) preside over federal raids on medical marijuana dispensaries; (12) attempt to negotiate an extension of American troops in Iraq beyond 2011 (an effort that thankfully failed); (14) reauthorize the Patriot Act; (13) and select an economic team mostly made up of former and future financial executives from Wall Street firms that played major roles in the financial crisis.

Maybe we’ve already discussed these issues enough here and there is already agreement, but I thought the author of the piece raised questions that I’d like to hear the answers to.  If anyone thinks I’m happy about this, look again.  I was an Obama supporter in 2008 and even 2009, now, I’m not so sure.

Conclusion from The Atlantic:

Obama has transgressed against what is arguably Congress’ most essential check on executive power — its status as the decider of when America goes to war — and he has codified indefinite detention into law, something that hasn’t been done since Japanese Americans were detained during World War II. But at least he doesn’t torture people! How low we’ve set the bar.It isn’t that I object to Sullivan backing Obama’s reelection if his GOP opponent runs on bringing back torture. Is he the lesser of two evils? Maybe so. But lauding him as a president who has governed “with grace and calm” and “who as yet has not had a single significant scandal to his name”? If indefinite detention, secret kill lists, warrantless spying, a war on whistleblowers, violating the War Powers Resolution, and abuse of the state secrets privilege don’t fit one’s definition of “scandal,” what does?

Morning Report

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures 1308.1 -2.3 -0.18%
Eurostoxx Index 2427.4 -7.670 -0.31%
Oil (WTI) 99.96 -0.430 -0.43%
LIBOR 0.5611 0.000 -0.02%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 80.3 0.244 0.30%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.99% 0.02%
Futures are down slightly this morning on weakness in Europe and a lackluster earnings report from GE and Google. GE’s Earnings were a penny better (surprise, surprise) but revenues came in light due to weakness in Europe and the finance business. Google stunk up the joint with a miss on the top line and the bottom line. It is down 8% pre-market.
Sorry I wasn’t around yesterday, though I see some people filled in for me.  I was at the CSFB Securitized Products conference yesterday in the city. Congressman David Schweikert (Vice Chairman of te House Financial Services Subcommittee on Capital Markets and Government Sponsored Enterprises) spoke regarding the regulatory environment. A few takeways from the conference:
1) CSFB expects housing to decline 5%-7% this year and that *should* mark the bottom.
2) The government wants to introduce private capital into the mortgage market, but at the same time is trying to drive it away. The SEC is looking at changing the treatment of mortgage REITs which would drain, not add, private capital.
3) To get Fannie Mae capitalized to a reasonable level that would allow it to re-float would take a quarter of a trillion dollars. Nobody has a clue where that much money can be raised in the private sector. Which means Fannie and Fred will continue to be wards of the state.
4) The government is really interested in REOs to rentals. The problem is scalability.
5) 60% of underwater homeowners are current on their mortgages. Any sort of mass refinancing / mass principal cramdown for delinquent borrowers will also contain a massive moral hazard problem. Also, different treatment – the homeowner with a FHA loan gets relief, while the guy who’s mortgage went the private label route gets nothing.
6) There are a few leaders in Washington who get it, but most don’t. The appetite is still for slowing the foreclosure pipeline (in spite of volumes of evidence that it doesn’t do a thing to slow price depreciation – in fact it makes it worse).
7) Democrats want mass principal cramdowns and refis in spite of the fact that it would be an economic drag. It is simply a 1:1 transfer of wealth from investors to borrowers, so there is no multiplier effect, and the additional regulatory risk would drive mortgage rates higher. CSFB has conducted studies showing it is the affordability of the mortgage payment that matters, not the borrower’s equity position.
8) Question of the day: “Congressman, has anyone in Washington thought about just letting the markets clear?”  (The only thing that brought out laughter from the audience all day)
One observation I would make is that we want first time homebuyers, not necessarily hedge funds, to be buying up the excess supply. Yet closing times and down payment requirements for short sales drive many first time homebuyers away. I don’t know if it is because of regulatory reasons. If it is, Washington and the states should figure out a way to streamline the process.
In economic data, existing home sales comes out at 10:00.

Republican Debate #17

Watched the R debate tonight. Seemed to me the gloves came off, and it got pretty cutthroat at times. Anybody else watch? I didn’t keep notes, but there were some statements that really struck me. One example: in a litany of what Obama is doing wrong, Romney included that Obama “wants the government to run this country.” Really? As opposed to whom or what? The government is the surrogate for the people as expressed by our votes.  It was notable that  Romney has already pivoted sharply to the general election.

Notes/commentary by anyone else?

A few links from Ashot:

All about the Benjamins….and Newt’s marriage(s)

EJ Dionne thinks Gingrich won and may have done enough to win South Carolina.

I thought Jennifer Rubin had a few good lines in her take on the debate.

And last, but not least, The Fix weighs in on winners (Santorum, Gingrich, Mitt not on taxes) and losers (Ron Paul).

Slightly More Traditional Morning Report

Slightly more Traditional Morning Report

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures 1305.6 3.4 0.26%
Eurostoxx Index 2413 27 1.12%
Oil (WTI) 101.95 .02 –%
LIBOR .561 -0.001 -0.20%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 80.323 -0.311 -0.38%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.9% 0.0007%

On the 10 Year Govt Bond Yield, Brent reported 1.85% yesterday, Bloomberg is the source for the “Change” report.-  Via Mark with an assist from ashot

Thanks, Ashot!  CPI is reported “unchanged” which means some stuff went up and some went down: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

Housing starts are way below anticipated:  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-19/u-s-housing-starts-fell-more-than-forecast-on-drop-in-multifamily-units.html

BUT:  Jobless claims are the lowest in four years!

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-19/jobless-claims-in-u-s-plunge-to-lowest-in-almost-four-years.html

– Mark

Faux Morning Report

I thought this was sad.   Our oldest daughter is a photographer and while she specializes in digital, who doesn’t, her first love was the darkroom and film. (Reuters) –

 Eastman Kodak Co, which invented the hand-held camera and helped bring the world the first pictures from the moon, has filed for bankruptcy protection, capping a prolonged plunge for one of America’s best-known companies.The more than 130-year-old photographic film pioneer, which had tried to restructure to become a seller of consumer products like cameras, said it had also obtained a $950 million, 18-month credit facility from Citigroup to keep it going.The loan and bankruptcy protection from U.S. trade creditors may give Kodak the time it needs to find buyers for some of its 1,100 digital patents, the key to its remaining value, and to reshape its business while continuing to pay its 17,000 workers.”The board of directors and the entire senior management team unanimously believe that this is a necessary step and the right thing to do for the future of Kodak,” Chairman and Chief Executive Antonio Perez said in a statement.

I really don’t have the economic experience or knowledge to interpret this data, but here it is.U.S. stock index futures pointed to a lower open on Wall Street on Thursday ahead of key earnings from Bank of America and Morgan Stanley.  Housing starts, weekly jobless claims and CPI data are all due at 08:30 am, while the Philadelphia Fed Business activity index is due at 10:00 am.  Note to ATiM contributors:  These would be useful updates as reported.In company news, Morgan Stanley’s head of European oil research predicts BP will likely agree to pay the U.S. Department of Justice $20-$25 billion next month to settle all charges around the Deepwater Horizon rig blast and Gulf of Mexico oil spill.

 European shares inched higher on Thursday on hopes Greece would reach an agreement on a bond swap deal with its private creditors to avoid a messy default and that bank’s earnings in the United States would be strong.  Spain drew strong demand at a debt auction which sold more than 6.6 billion euros ($8.46 billion) of bonds with maturities of up to 10 years on Thursday in its first test of market sentiment for euro zone bonds this year.  U.S. stocks jumped to their highest since July on Wednesday as the International Monetary Fund seeks to raise $600 billion to help countries hit by the European debt crisis and forecast-beating earnings from Goldman Sachs.

Bits & Pieces (Wednesday Night Open Mic)

Not much from me today. Feel free to add. I’m busy transferring data between my laptop and the new iMac at work, and it’s taking a lot longer than I expected. A little disappointed: I thought I was getting the big honkin’ 3.1 ghz 27″ iMac, and instead I got it’s less robust baby brother, the 21″ 2.8ghz model.

The iMac

Not exactly what I expected . . .

Ah, well, you get what you get and you don’t pitch a fit. I should be able to hook up my current monitor to it, doubling my working screen real estate, which is what I’m really after. Still could have used that extra .3 ghz, though.

Morning Report

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures 1292.7 3.4 0.26%
Eurostoxx Index 2397.8 1.190 0.05%
Oil (WTI) 101.93 1.220 1.21%
LIBOR 0.5612 -0.001 -0.20%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 80.634 -0.480 -0.59%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.85% 0.00%
Futures are up slightly on earnings and a lack of market-moving news out of Europe. Bond geeks will note that EURIBOR / OIS (a measure of stress in the banking system) has been moving lower since the year began. It is at 84 basis points, having dropped from 101 basis points six weeks ago. ECB funding probably explains some of it, but it is a welcome sign and helps explain the more sanguine mood of Mr. Market recently.
Goldman reported better than expected results this morning based on cost cuts. Compensation fell 21% and staff decreased 7%. On cue, William Cohan was on Bloomberg TV this morning complaining that Wall Street comp is still 50% too high. US Bancorp also reported better than expected earnings.
The Producer Price Index came in a little hot, but still subdued. PPI ex food and energy was up .3% MOM and 3.0% YOY. Inflation is still a non-issue as far as the Fed is concerned. Tomorrow will be a big economic day with CPI, Housing Starts and Initial Jobless Claims. No report tomorrow as I will be in the city all day.
EDIT:  More bullish economic data:  Capacity Utilization increased again to 78.1% and the NAHB Homebuilder sentiment index increased to 25, confirming what the homebuilders have been saying on their conference calls.

Wednesday Admin Open Thread

Ask your questions and discuss problems in this thread today.  I don’t want to disrupt another thread and the conversation going on there.  Hopefully, we won’t need these threads much longer.  At some point we’ll put up a FAQ tab but it may take a little time.  Michi did the last one and did a fantastic job but I don’t expect her to do it again without some help.  Maybe if she starts it, we could all add to it and then edit each others q & a’s.  Unless of course she wants to do it again….. 🙂

Update:  After reading comments from last night it appears there are issues with various mobile devices and your ipad.  Any suggestions or has anyone found a work around these issues they’d like to share?

Also, in thinking about the FAQ page, perhaps we could all just write a brief paragraph regarding a feature or use of the format and then michi could just edit and put into the q & a form.  I’m trying to think of a way we can all contribute to the process so it’s not so much work for one person.

Update II: 

Internet to Shut Down Wednesday to Protest SOPA and PIPA

Less than 24 hours after I noted that we’ve won a brief respite from SOPA, the bill’s chief sponsor said it’s back on track for mark up in February.

But a number of the world’s most popular websites – including Wikipedia, Twitpic, Reddit, Imgur, Mozilla and WordPress – are “going dark” on Wednesday January 18th to protest the censorship bills (SOPA and PIPA).

In addition, Google and other web titans will place prominent messages on their front pages urging their readers to oppose the draconian bills.

This could affect us today so don’t panic…..it’s only one day.

MOVIES

Rosanne and I try to see one movie a month without our twin granddaughters, who will be 3 on January 23rd. Further, we each agree to let the other go see movies one of us would not see on a bet.  Here, in order, are the movies we have seen together as a couple since January, 2011, with my brief notes.

I hope it is useful for y’all and would like similar feedback on the movies we missed, for the purpose of Netflicking them at home.

We both would recommend all but one.

“The Social Network” B+.  Of current interest.

“Winter’s Bone”  A.  Suspenseful and spare with a great lead.

“Nora’s Will”  A.  How a funeral movie should be.  From MX.

“The Ghost Writer”  B.  Very suspenseful and well acted.

“The Kings Speech” A- or B+.  Well acted. Dramatic tension in a small place.  An Aussie accented Edward was a stretch, however.

“Inside Job”  A-.  Much more compelling than any Michael Moore documentary because it is not ham handed.

“Kids Are All Right” B.  Good chick flick, but tries too hard.

“Incendies”  A.  Suspenseful and terrifying.  Canadian.

“Page One: Inside the New York Times”  Documentary.  Skip it.

“Bridesmaids”  B or B+.  Funny chick flick.

“The Debt”  B.  Good suspense, good acting.  I was granted this as a date movie in trade for “Bridesmaids”.  Aside from the NYT documentary, “BM” was my least favorite and this is Rosanne’s least favorite, but we agree that both are worth a look.

“Midnight in Paris”  B.  Fantasy romance comedy chick flick.

“The Descendants”  A.  Works on three levels.

“We Bought A Zoo”  B.  Not in the class of “Descendants”.  But by no means a waste.  Bit of a chick flick, I think.

“The Artist”  B+.  Brilliantly executed gimmick.  Won’t survive as a TV rental.  See it in the theater.