Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Arcanaut
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktApparently Newt has had a resounding victory in the SC primary today. As of this post, Newt has a 15-pt lead over 2nd place Romney (who has a comfortable lead over 3rd place Santorum and 4th place Paul). See election results.
Any thoughts about what this portends for the R nomination?
Filed under: 2012, GOP, Republican primary | Tagged: Newt Gingrich |
All Things in Moderation 
And heh, of the four left standing, Newt is the most objectionable to me. Could there be a better way to prove my progressive creds?
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I thought this little exit poll nugget was interesting:
“Self-described Catholics made up 13 percent of the electorate and Gingrich won 37 percent of them; former Pennsylvania senator Santorum, also a Catholic, won 17 percent of Catholic voters, while Romney won 30 percent.”
For those of you who aren’t overly familiar with the LDS church the fact that a Mormon won almost twice as high a percentage of RC votes as one of the Catholics in the mix is HUGE. The two Churches hate (and, no, here in UT that isn’t too strong a word) each other at the theological level, so despite his lack of manners/common sense/social grace (as lms showed with that video posting earlier), Romney must have been able to connect with a fairly large number of them on the personal level to draw that kind of support.
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Michi, thanks for that info. That’s interesting. Do you have a link? Or maybe you could upload a photo? lol
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I thought all the talk until these last few days was that Romney would have this thing in the bag after today. I realize he had a tough week, but doesn’t this hurt him? Couldn’t Gingrich conceivably win FL as well?
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I think it was Mark (maybe it was Mr McWingnut)(or maybe Kevin–at any rate, it was someone who lives in the south) who said that southern R’s understand and like Newt and despise Romney–so it wouldn’t surprise me if Newt takes FL next.
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Yes, Gingrich can. If Gingrich consolidates the anti-Romney vote and if Romney’s support is really capped at 20 – 30% of the Republican electorate, then Romney will lose.
At the end of the day, actually winning the primaries matters.
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Sorry, okie, I should’ve included this link to where I got that from (it’s the msnbc story).
Photo–to quote lms: haaaahaaaaaaaaaaaa!!!!!!!!!!11
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lms, bad for Romney. It is my understanding Gingrich has organizational problems re FL. He has had financial obstacles, but I suspect that will change after this SC election.
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lol, Cain (Colbert?) has more than twice as many votes as Perry.
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My father-in-law, a Republican who is active in Michigan politics, was at my house tonight and put on Fox News to watch the SC results. I got to see the speeches from Romney, (more on him in a second), Paul (felt like I was back in college lecture) and Santorum (he lost me almost right away). I thought Romney had a good line about his opponents aligning with the democrats in their criticism of Romney’s work with Bain. Maybe Floridians won’t find that compelling but I certainly did, not that I would vote for MItt.
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My first reaction as a loyal Democrat? Thank you, South Carolina!
Florida may be south, but it isn’t South. Don’t forget, many moons ago, Mike Dukakis won Florida. Back then, Super Tuesday was the big deal. He survived it, because Florida, Massachusetts and some other big state voted on the same day. So, he neutralized the southern threat and then moved methodicallly to the nomination. And his destiny with a tank.
I don’t think Newt can knock Romney out, but he could bring it to the convention. At that point, Ron Paul will make his mark. Republicans–fear that day.
BB
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The Mike Teng FL poll stands at 4-3, Paul over Newt.
Vote for your view of the best R to be POTUS, please.
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This was probably before the SC primary but still funny.
David Letterman’s “Top Ten Signs Mitt Romney Is Getting Cocky”
10. Answers all questions with, “So’s your mother”
9. Offered Santorum a 10,000-vote head start in South Carolina primary
8. He’s forwarding his mail to the White House — Wow, that’s cocky
7. Skipping next three primaries to go on tour with Young Jeezy
6. Started selling his own commemorative presidential plates on QVC
5. Donated $50,000 to Rick Perry’s campaign
4. Now spelling “Mittt” with three T’s
3. Ended debate by taking out wad of bills and “making it rain”
2. Wants to rename states Mittchigan, Mittsouri, Mittsissippi, and New Mittsico
1. Offered to help Newt with his concession speech
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An interesting set of facts to consider when trying to see what’s next in Florida.
Courtesy of the Tampa Bay Times and Adam Smith…Florida is different.
These are stats based on this years entrance polls in IA, N.H. & S.C. and the same polls in Florida 4 years ago.
% of Independents voting.. IA -23% N.H.- 47% S.C. -25% FL 0% (closed primary)
Voters aged 65 and up.. IA – 26% N.H.- 21% S.C. – 27% FL 33 %
Self described Conservative IA – 83% N.H. 53% S.C.- 68% FL 61%
Here in the Tampa market we’ve been seeing Romney spots for a couple of weeks.
They are all his spots..no Super Pacs yet..and they are all image spots..nothing negative..all pointing out Romney’s success at creating jobs while at Bain Capital.
Does anyone care to wager how long before the carpet bombing from the Super Pacs begins?
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Update on my last post. It’s 1045AM…MTP…the bombing has begun.
One of Romney’s Super Pacs has just struck the first blow.
It was a very effective commerical IMO but I’m a progressive so what do I know about conservative sensibilities.
It begins with video of Obama giving a speech…Narration…Barrack Obama is succeeding in trying to select the opponent he wants to run against..Newt Gingrich…then follows the usual and now familiar litany of Newt’s transgressions and George Will saying Newt is not a conservative.
I just thought using a line like Obama is trying to select his opponent and he wants Newt was pretty good stuff.
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RUK,
You’re in Tampa too? I got here about two years ago from PA.
One factor in the FL primary is early voting, both absentee and in person, of which there has already been a considerable amount. It is shorter this year in the non-Section 5 counties, but has already started for Hillsborough.
I’ve only gotten 4 mailers so far, two from Romney, two from Restore. I don’t think has the bucks or organization to compete here.
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Grr. I don’t think NEWT has the resources to compete here.
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This may not hurt Newt and I suspect he’ll get cash from his SuperPACs and elsewhere.
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Mike
I’m across the bay in St. Pete. You make an excellent point about early voting! Many pundits have suggested this cake could be partially baked. And if normal early voting patterns held that could be the case but here is an article in this morning’s St. Pete..oops.Tampa Bay Times. Seems like a mixed bag in our area Mike.
http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/local/slow-start-to-early-voting-in-tampa-bay-area/1211767
As Republican presidential hopefuls made their final frenzied push in South Carolina on Saturday, early voting began across much of Tampa Bay and Florida at a much slower pace.
It was anything but frenzied.
Seven people were waiting for voting to begin Saturday morning at Pinellas County’s three early voting sites. By the time the polls closed at 4 p.m., only 138 people had cast ballots.
“It’s very slow,” said Nancy Whitlock, spokeswoman for the Pinellas County Supervisor of Elections office.
But the county has received more than 39,000 mail-in ballots so “we really have 13.8 percent turnout,” Whitlock said.
Voting in Hernando and Pasco counties, which also had their first day of early voting ahead of the Jan. 31 primary open only to registered Republicans, was higher than expected. Pasco had nearly 1,100 early votes, while Hernando saw 262 people.
Hillsborough County, which began early voting Jan. 16, had 1,260 ballots cast Saturday for a total of 7,942 votes in six days.
Probably more interesting for the Romney campaign will be the numbers out of North Florida…that area could be truly fertile ground for Newt…unless as you suggest Mike too many votes have already been cast.
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RUK: I just thought using a line like Obama is trying to select his opponent and he wants Newt was pretty good stuff.
I’m not so sure. FL is a closed primary, so the only folks voting are registered R’s. By saying Obama is influencing R voters, the implication is R voters, at least some of them, are stupid and allow themselves to be led around by a Democrat. In my view, that implication may backfire and move undecided voters away from Romney rather than to him.
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That is a very interesting take MsJS and certainly makes sense.
I hate to admit this as a progressive…and someone who is a populist..but I don’t really have a lot of respect for either party’s voters when it comes to being manipulated by TV ads.
You are obviously a very bright lady with an analytical mind and so you immediately saw the problem with that approach. Oh that all of America’s voters left, right and center were as analytical as you MsJS.
BTW along those thoughts perhaps someone can divine this common sentiment that was expressed by many S.C. voters prior to the voting.
They said they needed to decide whether to vote with their heads…Romney..or their hearts Gingrich. Is that simply a reflection of electibility concerns or something more. I truly do not know.
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Does Newt Gingrich realize that
1. The Declaration of Independence is not law?
2. The framers had a massive distrust of standing armies?
3. That the 13 colonies and poor laws that acted as a safety net?
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RUK, thank you.
However, my analysis often misses matters that defy that sort of scrutiny. For example, I was sure Romney would take SC, although narrowly. I missed the late Gingrich surge and its underpinnings entirely.
Romney’s “I’m right and you’re wrong” meme, a meme which this SuperPAC ad is playng, isn’t a particularly effective strategy if the goal is to draw “you” to “my” side. If it were, the airwaves would be filled with ads literally saying, “If you drink/drive/wear/use/like xxx, you’re wrong.”
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The only demographic group which Romney carried was households earning more that $200k. Not a lot of fertile soil to fight Newt back from.
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Nate of 538 digs into what it all means. Like us, he doesn’t know yet. Curiously, he holds out the possibility The Newt could win FL. I will be watching for deeper analysis of that contest.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/22/did-gingrichs-win-break-the-rules/
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