Weakness within Iran

Economics has been blessed with the title “the dismal science”. That title, like most, can
be interpreted in a number of ways and it is, I suspect, often interpreted as a wry
comment on just how dry and dull the decidedly text-laden, and not terribly visual, science
of economics actually is. Economics activity, or the lack thereof, has, however, a
tendency to reveal difficult truths.
Iran appears, at the moment, to be a case in point.
As Iranian threats to close the Strait of Hormuz and a warning to a U.S. aircraft carrier not to return have understandably drawn attention, the Iranian currency, the rial, has lost a third of its value causing a sharp rise in the cost of imported goods and Iranians are reported to be stocking up on goods.
Current economic difficulties appear to be, in part, the result of Iranian domestic economic policy and sanctions.
Furthermore, the future does not augur well. The EU recently imposed curbs on Iranian oil imports to Europe in an attempt to force Iran to abandon efforts to produce nuclear weapons and the Obama Administration has prepared new punitive measures aimed at Iran’s oil revenues.
Amidst all the bellicose statements coming from Iran, the bellicose statements directed against it, as well as all the talk of Iran coming to play a more prominent role in the region, it is worth pausing to note what appear to be real weakness and difficulties with Iran itself.

10 Responses

  1. Tangential, but it's the first thing I thought of: if I wish to go shopping in Tehran, can I go to my local bank in America and exchange dollars for rials? Another way to ask it, I suppose, is how hooked in to the global economy is Iran's currency? Anyone know? I confess complete ignorance in this area.

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  2. Kevin:I don't know for sure, but on my Bloomberg info system, I can see exchange rates for pretty much every tradeable currency. I can get exchange rates for Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan, Bahrain and Turkey. But no Iran. Also no Iraq, Afghanistan, or Pakistan.

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  3. This posturing by Iran is disturbing. I saw this morning that the EU issued a warning to them.This could very easily escalate, into still another war, and before the 2012 elections.Wonder if the jihad strategists took that into consideration?They sure can't be too happy that Obama took out bin Laden.

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  4. ScottC: So, my plans for a fun shopping excursion in Pakistan and Afghanistan are completely blown. Unless they take US currency, which I have read is the case with many establishments in those areas, but I don't know how credible that is.

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  5. kevin;Unless they take US currency, which I have read is the case with many establishments in those areas, but I don't know how credible that is.It is probably true. My experience with places that have controlled currencies is that $$ are much sought after, even if they have to be used on a black market.Back in 1994 I went to Vietnam, and I remember people selling things on the street for the standard price of $1. Everyone there wanted $$. Even the government wanted $$…when we arrived we were forced at customs to purchase a certain amount of local currency (can't remember the amount), at a government dictated exchange rate, which could not be converted back at the end of your trip. You were stuck with it.I still have some Vietnamese Dong somewhere in my house. (It occurred to me at the time that Dong was probably not the best name for an aspiring unit of currency.)

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  6. I've got about $300,000 Dong at my place too. or about $15.

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  7. What's the exchange rate for converting Vietnamese Dong into American Penis?

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  8. lol kevin

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  9. In 2000 we were not required to buy a set amount of dong. Dollars were in demand, though the way I recall it, it was difficult to get much change from a dollar.I'm surprised Pakistan is not on the board. Iran is off because of the sanctions. Can you get an exchange rate for Cuba?Lastly, a lot of people are talking about a Zakaria piece on Iran this week; one of his points is that one of Iran's few allies, Syria, is also undergoing political unrest. They don't have many friends to which to turn for help.

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