Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Arcanaut
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
| Last | Change | Percent | |
| S&P Futures | 1263 | 2.7 | 0.21% |
| Eurostoxx Index | 2293.2 | 2.790 | 0.12% |
| Oil (WTI) | 100.53 | 0.850 | 0.85% |
| LIBOR | 0.5758 | 0.002 | 0.35% |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 79.844 | -0.077 | -0.10% |
| 10 Year Govt Bond Yield | 2.02% | 0.00% |
Hope everyone had a good Christmas.
Markets are up this morning in thin holiday trading. Needless to say, not a lot of news this Tuesday morning after the holiday.
Case-Schiller was released this morning, and the results are slightly lower than expected. The 20 city index dropped 3.4% at an annual rate to 140.3, which puts the US real estate market back to May of 2003 levels. Denver and Washington DC were up in Oct, while Detroit and Atlanta experienced 2% + declines. Remember, there is a lag with CS, so these numbers are October numbers and we are going into a seasonally weak period. I wouldn’t be surprised to see prices take out the post recession lows this spring.
On the bright side, consumer confidence has rebounded smartly from this summer’s lows. The conference board consumer confidence level came in at 64.5 vs. street expectations of 58.9. While we are still at extremely depressed levels historically, the mood has brightened considerable with the index jumping from 40.9 in Oct to 64.5 in Dec. Interestingly, the retail ETF (XRT) yawned at the number – I would have expected to see analysts take up their comp sales estimates for Dec. Retailers will report Dec comp sales on Jan 5.
Chart: Consumer Confidence
Filed under: Uncategorized |
All Things in Moderation 
Consumer confidence is up. That's good, right? I know anecdotally that Christmas sales must have been decent, even if discounted–the stores have been packed, but also inventory has been depleted. Right before Christmas, the stores were ransacked–especially for Christmas stuff. It looked like there was a lotof business being done. Tangent: Locally, CVS is making a big move. Walgreens owns the greater Memphis area (and probably far beyond), but CVS is trying hard. Rite-Aid maintains a presence, but I don't see them hanging on. Still, with a CVS every mile and a Walgreens on every corner, there is clearly a robust market for drugstores around here. Alas, unlike the old days, we only have two real malls (used to have four, then five briefly, then four again). One anemic K-Mart–Target and Wal-Mart have big box retail sewed up for the most part. Lowes built big in the Memphis area about 8-10 years ago (after having one old fashioned Lowes forever, we now have a dozen of the big fancy "new" ones). Home Depot moved in about 14 years ago, but hasn't expanded much since. But they're all still open. Most of them have survived the downturn.Which is good. Alas, the Memphis grocery store market is locked up by Krogers. We have Super Targets and Super Wal-Marts (so they have to compete with that, thank goodness), but the last alternative grocery–Schucks, previously Seesel's (by Albertson's for a while, before that locally owned by the Seesel's family) sold out to Krogers. Now they are all Krogers! Ever see those extreme couponing shows where people get $600 worth of groceries for $4 bucks? That doesn't happen in cities with one grocery store chain. Sigh.We used to have Mega Market, Seesel's, Piggly Wiggly, Montesi's and we have a Jitney Premiere for a year, before Jitney Jungle went out of business. We also had Big Star, and some smaller groceries like Ikelberry's (what one of the Piggly Wiggly's became after Piggly Wiggly went away). Now, we got Krogers. And one Whole Foods, but that doesn't count. 😉 I think there's still a Superlo somewhere. Oh, and we do have several Aldis, which carry a limited selection but thank goodness for them, because they have really good prices on most things. Ah, well. I'm hoping that the economy kicks back up, and another chain, be it Albertson's or Winn-Dixie or Publix or Food Lion, decides there's a marketplace here and moves in.
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Driving back from the in-laws' house yesteday the highway was very backed up at the exit for the nearest mall so there is further anecdotal evidence. Like Kevin, the grocery store market around here is largely dominated by Kroger. We have 3 within a 10 minute drive. We have a Meijer that is a bit further away, but which will probably be our primary grocery store now that Mrs. Ashot is staying at home with Ashot Jr. They just have better prices. There is a local grocery store that is good for getting cuts of meats but it's pricey and small otherwise. We also have Trader Joes (which I love). No Whole Foods, which is shocking given the community I live in, but I'm not complaining because Trader Joes is a decent and much cheaper alternative.
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kevin:I know anecdotally that Christmas sales must have been decent, even if discounted–the stores have been packed, but also inventory has been depleted. Right before Christmas, the stores were ransacked–especially for Christmas stuff. It looked like there was a lotof business being done.A friend of mine is in retail locally around me (CT). I was speaking to him last week, and he said that sales have been very good for everyone leading into Christmas. However, he thought that it was driven largely by huge discounts designed to get people in the store, and that most retailers were figuring that they were simply booking a lot of next year's business into this year…ie sales that would normally come between Jan and spring were coming in Dec with the better prices. So, not so much an uptick in business as bringing futures sales forward. They are very worried about what the sales numbers will look like in early 2012.
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Auto sales were apparently pretty good, too. I also remember hearing that the care sales numbers were in spite of a lack of dealer incentives. While the number in the link are better than the alternative, they echo the words above that all improvement is really, really slow.
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Not such a Merry Christmas for Ron Paul.
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Christmas box office was decent, too. Not a sign of a full blown recovery, but certain a sign that we're not getting significantly worse:Christmas Box Office Decent
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but which will probably be our primary grocery store now that Mrs. Ashot is staying at home with Ashot Jr. They just have better prices.Have you ever been to Aldis? It's a British chain that's moved in the South in a big way (at least around here), and it's an odd shopping experience at first. You have to bring your own bags, or buy theirs, and you have to remember to bring a quarter if you want to get a grocery cart. The checkers are super fast, throw everything in the basket, and you go to a counter at the front of the store to bag the stuff yourself. And it's cash or debit only. But the prices are excellent. I consolidated a purchase recently at Wal-Mart, just because I was there for something else, but noted the prices and compared next time I was at Aldi. Usually less than half the price for produce, and 50%-75& less on eggs and milk, etc.
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Have you ever been to Aldis?I don't think I have been to an Aldis, but I think there is one not too far from us. And having just looked it up, there is one not far from the aforementioned Meijer. I'll have to get Mrs. Ashot to check it out. We have a fair amount of our own canvas bags because we go to the Eastern Market in Detroit fairly often in the summer. Thanks for the tip!
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