Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Arcanaut
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
| Last | Change | Percent | |
| S&P Futures | 1218.6 | 6.9 | 0.57% |
| Eurostoxx Index | 2215.4 | -9.490 | -0.43% |
| Oil (WTI) | 93.94 | 0.070 | 0.07% |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 80.077 | -0.158 | -0.20% |
| 10 Year Govt Bond Yield | 1.88% | -0.03% |
It is Triple Witching Day, and the folks on business TV are excited. I have never understood why – I don’t think options expiry days are any more volatile than non-option expiry days. As an aside, am I the only one irritated by the CNBC / Bloomberg TV insistence on calling it Quadruple Witching Day (to include the expiry of single stock futures)? Does anybody trade single stock futures? Quadruple Witching just sounds more dramatic than Triple Witching.
The consumer price index was released this morning, and it shows that inflation is still behaving. The low inflation numbers were primarily attributed to a drop in the price of energy, as gasoline bounces around close to support and natural gas cannot get out of its own way.
As we close in on the holidays, the markets are only going to become more boring. Zynga priced last night at the top of its range at $10 a share. It is set to begin trading around 11:00 am.
Filed under: Uncategorized |
All Things in Moderation 
Probably a bit of a heretic for those on the left, but Christopher Hitchens has died.Christopher Hitchens, 1949-2011.
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The single worst financial idea ever written by someone other than Lenin or Marx:"Luckily, there is another way to align incentives: requiring all bank equity holders to have full liability. Currently, equity holders lose only their investment if banks are bailed out. Unlimited-liability equity ensures that before the government steps in, every shareholder would need to first declare personal bankruptcy." http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-16/proper-bank-reform-needs-owners-to-be-liable-commentary-by-jonathan-berk.htmlBloomberg must have had their Christmas party last night, and left the janitors in charge today.
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Chris Buckley has written a terrific remembrance of Hitch a the New Yorker, I think it was.He was brilliant, insightful, wrongheaded, contrarian, all sorts of things, but mostly brilliant.
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I liked Hitchens a lot. A bit of an odd duck, he was the very definition of an iconoclast. Also, he did a lot of great on-the-ground type reportage. He will be missed. While I could not disagree more with the thesis of his book God is Not Great: How Religion Poisons Everything, he was a compelling writer and had a very active mind.
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So Bloomberg wants effectively to abolish the corporate form of doing business for banks.Yep, that's pretty insane. Clearly, you don't have to be smart to get rich.
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Brent:A suggestion…include in your morning report today's 3m or 6m LIBOR set, along with the change from yesterday. In the absence of fed activity/announcements, any change can be a good signal regarding bank liquidity and credit markets in general. As I mentioned yesterday, LIBOR has spent many months slowly creeping up, as the Euro crisis has heated up. If LIBOR starts to drift back downwards, it will be a good signal that market finally has confidence in a resolution to the crisis.
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qb: I'm still refusing to post at PL, but I noticed your reply to this:"most atheists need extreme reasons for war" As being ahistorical hogwash, and this is certainly true. It goes back to my whole problem with Hitchens' God is Not Great, ironically.But it also made me feel like noting that atheists apparently don't need extreme reasons for the mass murder of their own citizens (see: Mao, Stalin, Pol Pot) so it's hard to imagine them needing extreme reasons to support a war or two.
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Is that editorial Schumer approved or is the Mayor off the reservation?
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kevin:I am pretty much an atheist myself (after having been raised a Catholic and attended both Catholic highschool and a jesuit college), and I thought Hitchens' God book had huge holes in it.I think his death is worthy of it's own post…I will put one up and we can post our own thoughts/rememberances there.
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kev,"qb: I'm still refusing to post at PL, but I noticed your reply to this"I apparently have something wrong with me. What can I say. If we weren't scattered across the continent, you could hold an intervention for me.Every now and then I see a comment like that one that is just so over the top unthinking and unexamined and ridiculous that I have to note it. But other than calling it hogwash, I'm not sure what there is to say about it. I had the same thoughts you did.
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OT: Incandescent lightbulbs. I've actually got a halogen bulb that has outlasted 3 compact fluorescent bulbs doing identical duty. I think the likely lifespan of CFLs is greatly exaggerated.
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Agree Hitch is worthy of a post and should have one. Alas, I am too busy to do any justice.
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The former heads of Fannie (Daniel Mudd) and Freddie (Richard Syron) have been sued by the SEC.http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/ex-freddie-mac-fannie-mae-chiefs-sued-by-sec-over-loans/2011/12/16/gIQAnLPGyO_story.html?hpid=z1Richard Syron was my first boss as a college graduate. I personally liked him and shared a lot of his more liberal policy views. That said, his analytical skills were incredibly weak and his power of persuasion incredibly strong. I remember thinking that combination had the potential to be hugely damaging.
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Christopher Hitchins was an astoundingly brilliant and complex man with a broad range of writing bound to inspire and infuriate just about anybody simultaneously.
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QB- Not sure if you saw this conversation elsewhere but Mark and were wondering if you knew the Appellate standard or review for Rakoff's rejection of the SEC/Citigroup settlement. We guessed it was probably abuse of discretion. Assuming that's the case I can't imagine the SEC would appeal and I would guess they won't appeal even if it is a lesser standard.
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Further OT – why it sucks to have to advise small business employers, part 35:http://www.eeoc.gov/eeoc/foia/letters/2011/ada_gina_confidentrequre.htmlin which we are told that the employer MUST keep relevant work related health records of the employee separate from any general health records of the employee.
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Zynga breaks IPO price. That didn't take long…
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ashot,Not positive, but I think that would be correct. But before that would come the question of a right to immediate appeal. I'm not sure there is one, and an appeal down the road would probably be effectively moot or impractical. Did the judge certify it?
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If I may digress, Gary Schultz and Tim Curley, former Penn State AD finds their own graves too shallow, and so decides to dig them a little deeper:"Both Curley and Schultz deny that McQueary told them the boy had been raped in the showers, according to the grand jury's report. They said he spoke of "inappropriate" or "disturbing" contact that made him "uncomfortable."Specifically asked if McQueary reported seeing an act of sodomy, Curley responded, "Absolutely not," the grand jury reported.Schultz testified that he recalled being told at a meeting that Sandusky "may have grabbed the boy's genitals while wrestling" and agreed it would be inappropriate sexual conduct between a man and a boy, the grand jury said. But he also testified that the allegations made were "not that serious" and that he and Curley "had no indication that a crime had occurred."Remember this, "inappropriate sexual conduct" between a 60 year old man and a 10-12 year old boy in a shower is not a "crime", according to the official in charge of the PSU police force!.
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"OT: Incandescent lightbulbs. I've actually got a halogen bulb that has outlasted 3 compact fluorescent bulbs doing identical duty. I think the likely lifespan of CFLs is greatly exaggerated. "Or fraudulently stated. I've never had a single CFL last a year. Incandescents last longer.Worth a note:When Is a Taxi Not a Taxi?"The new car service company Uber exposes the idiocy of American cities’ cab regulations.By Matthew Yglesias|Posted Thursday, Dec. 15, 2011, at 1:09 PM ETUber is a company that’s exciting, innovative, useful, and arguably shouldn’t exist at all. It is a solution to a ridiculous problem created by cartels and overregulation."
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jnc:Amen, there is no difference in life span between the new and old bulbs, none whatsoever. Any contention to the contrary is fraudulent. I actually started writing down when I changed them because it seemed so at odds with the box. Didn't matter what fixture, room, usage etc., they never last.
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" I think the likely lifespan of CFLs is greatly exaggerated."I have had a similar experience.
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kevin/jnc:I think the likely lifespan of CFLs is greatly exaggerated.Or fraudulently stated.Shocker, that.
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" there is no difference in life span between the new and old bulbs, none whatsoever."CFLs are undetwhelming, but halogens are worth the price premium in my opinion. I haven't yet had an LED fail & am going that route in our kitchen remodel. The price point for dimmable LEDs is coming way down…?
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But I am sure that all these green/enviro regulations will, as advertised, turn out to be good for the economy.
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On cfls, my experience has been as follows. The really expensive ones I get at the specialty store last as advertised and the ones I get at Home Despot-Lowes do not.Austin pumps out 130/260, not 110/220 or 120/240, and for an incandescent to last to its stated life I have to search out ones rated 130. Now, that has not been a problem for my halogens.
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I have something else good to say about cfls – they burn cool. When I made a July 1996 switch of 45 lightbulbs [in 3800 sq. ft.] to cfl, my electric load went down by 600kwh/summer/mo. This is Austin, it is 100F every day from June 20 to September 10 [or damned near it], and adding to the AC load is verboten!
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Mark:Yes, I'm sure they are energy savers, but it is marketing mistake to try to fool people about them otherwise. It turns people off to the promises of other energy saving devices.
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John, I agree. I have found the bulbs made in China to be the shortest lived, while the ones made in Hungary and the USA are pretty good. I have USA made cfl bulbs in my kitchen fan that have not been replaced in 3 1/2 years now – 28W flourescents. $14/ea.
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BTW, federal contractors are going to get some relief from a dumb EEOC rule, it appears. EEOC presumes that an English in the workplace rule is discriminatory – presumptive violation of Titles VI and VII.US Civil Rights Commission has strongly suggested EEOC back off, so that there is no such presumption. US CRC says that if an employee thinks the rule is discriminatory the burden should be on the employee.In TX, no federal contractor I ever dealt with had an English only rule except for limited purposes, and this has not been a big deal here, for obvious reasons. In other words, guys building federal buildings talk spanglish.But it is about time this particular "presumption" against the employer died.
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"I think the likely lifespan of CFLs is greatly exaggerated."You don't sell the steak, you sell the sizzle.
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I don't like CFLs because the light output never truly matches the alleged replacement style. The marketers would do themselves a favor and undersell the equivalence just a little. Give me a 100W equivalent that give the light of a 125W for 20W rather than the light of a 75W for 13W (all numbers hypothetical)
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" I have USA made cfl bulbs in my kitchen fan that have not been replaced in 3 1/2 years now – 28W flourescents. $14/ea."I saw some dimmable LEDs @ HD this week for under 10 each. Normal incandescent form factor.
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yello:I asked you yesterday on the back of lms' link to Sullivan's endorsement (of sorts) of Paul, but perhaps you didn't see it. Do you really consider yourself a conservative? And what "serious austerity" measures do you propose the government enact once the economy recovers?
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It just dawned on me that the absence of a Republican Presidential Debate dedicated to Lightbulbs is one of the great tragedies of our time. Given the sheer number of debates that have occured how has one not centered on this hot topic? It would be very illuminating to know each candidate's position. It could really shed light on the role they think the government should play in our lives…oh the puns!
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john: Amen, there is no difference in life span between the new and old bulbs, none whatsoever. Any contention to the contrary is fraudulent. I actually started writing down when I changed them because it seemed so at odds with the box. Didn't matter what fixture, room, usage etc., they never last.I've had a few last the predicted time, but not many. I've had more of them fail within a week (or immediately) than I've ever had incandescent bulbs fail in a week or two. I don't think the average performance can be good. I have much greater hope for LEDs, of which I have just a few. There still well within their expected lifetime, but so far no absurdly early failures. I except the technology will prove to be more reliable, as regards lifespan, than CFLs. In some cases, it may be usage. The CFLS where they typically get turned on, and left on, and then turned off and left off seem to have longer lifespans. Rooms where one might come in, turn on the light for a minute, then turn it off quite frequently, CFLs seem to perform (for me) similarly to incandescents. Perhaps slightly better, if I don't include immediate failures in the average.
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It just dawned on me that the absence of a Republican Presidential Debate dedicated to Lightbulbs is one of the great tragedies of our time.Michelle Bachman could have been that candidate, but she insisted on talking about other things, too. Off message. Fail!
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You know I'm BIG John Carney fan. What do you think of this:"The Hottest Question in Europe: Did The ECB Just Pull Off A Back-Door Bailout That Will End the Crisis?"http://www.cnbc.com/id/45697069Where are my irascible bond traders to weigh in?
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"I have found the bulbs made in China to be the shortest lived, while the ones made in Hungary and the USA are pretty good. I have USA made cfl bulbs in my kitchen fan that have not been replaced in 3 1/2 years now – 28W flourescents. $14/ea. "I'll keep an eye out for the manufacturer location.Also:SEC Appeals Judge Rakoff’s Rejection of $285 Million Citigroup Settlement
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I hope you don't mean me. I may be irascible but I ain't no bond trader. Fixed income derivatives. You know, the spawn of Satan himself.
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scott:Right, and PE guys are LBO guys, minus the Satanic aspect!
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Of course I'm not happy being called a "day trader", since sometimes a day is way too long, but on the other hand there are some MLP's that would require an act of Congress to get me to sell.
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heh
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scott:Forgot to ask, are you into real derivatives, or synthetic ones? Kind of like Christams trees.LOL
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The SEC is appealing…very interesting. Thanks for the link JNC. Timely links like that and obscure, uber-nerdy, derivative humor are why I love this blog.
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ash:"Uber" is a gross mischaracterization!
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We replaced almost all (probably 30ish bulbs) of our regular bulbs with CFLs about 4 years ago. Since then we have had to replace about 5 – three of which burned out (after about 1 year+) and 2 of which were terminated by my cat and one of my children. Some of them, like the outside lights, are on a lot…but we have the same experience regardless of the on/off frequency. We had one burn out in our kitchen, where they are on and off a lot, but the other two on the fixture are fine. I can't recall where the ones we got were made (i want to say Hungary but not sure), but they were Home Depot sale + Electric company subsidy so they were dirt cheap (relatively speaking, probably in the $2/bulb range). The issues we have had with them are the lack of quality dimmables (we removed our dimmer for our dining room), the slow-to-shine aspect of winter outdoor bulbs and the brightness issue that you all have discussed. In most cases, I opted for the brightest I could get that fit the fixture. I know that dimmables have improved since we changed…but since I never have had to really replace them, I can't really speak to the current quality. We are getting our kitchen redone starting Monday – I imagine I will need to research lighting options in the next few weeks so it will be interesting to me to see what has changed in the last 4 years.
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john:Forgot to ask, are you into real derivatives, or synthetic ones?Real derivatives are synthetic.
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scott:LOL You are failing to get into the uber-nerdy spirit of the thing as suggested by ash!hey, what did you think about the Carney piece seriously?
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Scott, [say] I bundle a bunch of performing cash flowing mortgages and sell instruments backed by them. Why is that synthetic? Because I did it and not God? :-)Jnc, ashot, and QB, now that SEC has appealed and Citi agrees with SEC according to the article, the Circuit is faced with the litigants in agreement. Interesting.
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ashot:uber-nerdy, derivative humor You mean the kind with a punchline like "I said Euribor, not Eurolibor." Bwahahahaha!Forget it.
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You are failing to get into the uber-nerdy spirit of the thing as suggested by ash!I would dispute the lack of uber-nerdiness exhibited by Scott.
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Mark:Because I did it and not God?The real trick is to assume a bunch of hypothetical cashflows and create an instrument backed by them, (which is to say, backed by nothing at all). Now that is God's work.
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john…on Carney…Relaxing collateral constraints and extending loan maturities is certainly an interesting proposition. I agree with this:"If banks believe that countries like Italy and Spain can continue to pass austerity measures and that EU leaders will continue to move towards fiscal consolidation that will make the euro area more stable in the future, then they will buy PIIGS sovereign debt buy the bushel, as there is no limit to the ECB's funding policy. If not, then they won't buy enough and the crisis will continue to intensify."
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scott:yeah, the expansion of collateral is very similar to what the Fed did of course, IF that's the way they are going to go.IF this happens, I do think it's a game changer for real.Brent, where are you on this?
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"Jnc, ashot, and QB, now that SEC has appealed and Citi agrees with SEC according to the article, the Circuit is faced with the litigants in agreement. Interesting."You use the word litigants. I would substitute co-conspirators.
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A welcome headline:Ex-Fannie, Freddie executives charged with fraudhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/six-former-fannie-freddie-execs-charged-with-fraud/2011/12/16/gIQAz4FSyO_story.html?hpid=z1
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