All Things in Moderation

TED Talk: How Healthy Living Nearly Killed Me.

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Vital Statistics:

Markets are rallying on thin volume as market participants focus on a lack of bad news out of Europe. Sovereign yields are slightly higher across the board. Investors may also be taking a view that the ISM report (due at 10:00 am) will be better than expected.

On the “glass half-empty” side of the ledger, the WSJ has an article on Bridgewater’s view on the economy – and it doesn’t bode well. Money quote:

“What you have is a picture of broken economic systems that are operating on life support,” Mr. Prince says. “We’re in a secular deleveraging that will probably take 15 to 20 years to work through and we’re just four years in.”

In Europe, “the debt crisis is [a] long ways from over,” he says. The economic and financial morass will mean interest rates in the U.S. and Europe will essentially be locked at zero for years.

Dalio is long gold, Asian emerging market currencies, and high quality government bonds. The article goes on to say that they believe there is money to be made in US Treasuries. That is a defensive portfolio.

The NYT has an article discussing the dismal state of the US consumer. The article echoes the Bridgewater piece that debt remains a headwind for the US economy. This analysis isn’t new – economists have been talking about it since the crisis began. But how much progress has been made in consumer deleveraging? A couple charts suggest that things are not as bad as it seems.

Chart: Consumer Debt as a percent of GDP:

The above chart shows the progress being made in deleveraging, but it ignores one huge issue – what determines spending – the amount you owe or the amount you pay? Lower interest rates have allowed homeowners with equity to refinance at much lower rates. If you look at debt service – the amount people actually pay – it is down quite a bit.

Chart: Ratio of Debt Service Payments to Disposable Income:

While the dour mood of the job market will undoubtedly influence consumer spending, low interest rates have at least increased borrowing capacity, which may come into play when the consumer’s mood shifts.

********EDIT:

ISM is in, better than expected (53.9 vs 53.5 expected). Good manufacturing report. Best news: bit jump in employment, rebounding back to Spring levels. Construction Spending was also up 1.2%, better than the .5% estimate.

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Medical technology innovations to look forward to in 2012 and beyond.

That’s it for today! — KW

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From Ace of Spades (yes, McWing, again), talking about the GOP and the upcoming election: If This is the Best We Can Do, We Deserve To Lose.

Our choice is coming down to whether we want to run the car over the cliff at 120MPH with Obama or whether we want to clip along at a leisurely 60MPH with the eventual GOP nominee in the driver’s seat for that final launch over the edge.

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It’s December 31, and 2011 is almost history. Let’s take a look back, JibJab style.

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About seven years ago I spent a week touring through southern Germany with my family, culminating with a final 2 days in Salzburg, just across the southeastern border into Austria. Salzburg is a beautiful city, but in order to spend half a day visiting nearby Das Kehlsteinhaus, better known here as The Eagle’s Nest, the only remaining vestige of Hitler’s high command retreat in Obersalzburg, I had to consent to a grueling half day Sound of Music tour with my wife and daughters in and around Salzburg itself. Three hours on a bus with chirpy Julie Andrews singing incessantly in the background. Ugh.

That being said, Maria and the young von Trapps seemed the perfect intro to tonight’s Bits & Pieces, which includes a few of my favorite links that I have collected over the years, ranging from informative to entertaining to complete and utter timewasters. With that in mind…

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I can’t remember how I came across this Famous Trials website, but it is fantastic, complete with synopses, trial transcripts, evidence, photos, and more for any number of historically interesting cases, ranging from the Salem Witchcraft trials, to the Alger Hiss perjury trial, to the 3 trials of Oscar Wilde. Legal Eagles, and wannabes like me, dig in.
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Boomshine, a totally addicting timewaster. Be warned.
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I’m sure few of you would have guessed, but I enjoy arguments. No, really, I’m not kidding. And by arguments I mean formal, logical arguments. Anyone interested in arguing must know, and hopefully avoid, the logical fallacies.
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Jim Boeheim, head coach of the Syracuse University basketball team, has long been known for speaking his mind to the media. This tendency towards bluntness has recently gotten him in some reasonably serious trouble, but as a long-time Syracuse fan it also provided my favorite post-game press conference moment. (Warning…earmuff the little ones):

And, weirdly, the same press conference as re-interpreted by girls in bikinis:

As an aside, speaking of Syracuse basketball, I was actually in attendance at the greatest game in Big East history. It was a long night, but well worth it in the end.

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Ever since I was a little kid, I have been fascinated by the JFK assassination. One of the first books I ever remember checking out of our local public library was a book about the assassination, and over the years I have read pretty much every book that has been written about it. I even have a condensed copy of the Warren Report on my bookshelf. This is been brought to mind because for Christmas I got Stephen King’s most recent book 11/22/63, about a man who goes back in time in an effort to prevent the assassination. I started it on Tuesday morning and finished it yesterday. Thought it was great. Anyway, if you are at all interested in the assassination and the many varied conspiracy theories (and why they are all bunk), this site by John McAdams is a great place to start.
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The Illustrated Road to Serfdom.
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I linked to this once before over at the blog whose name dare not be spoken, but everyone should read this book at some point, and it’s free on the web, so I’ll link to it again: The Ultimate Resource.
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For movie buffs, I give you another boring-day timewaster, Invisibles. You have to name the movie from a still shot taken from one scene, but there’s a catch. All the people – but not their clothes – have been airbrushed out of the photo.
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Another one for movie buffs. Have you ever watched a movie supposedly based on real events and wondered how much of it was true, or what the actual people looked like? Well, now you can find out.

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Vital Statistics:

Last trading day of the year. Should be a very sleepy one. Bond market closes early today, at 2pm est, most desks are operating with skeleton crews, and most books have already been squared/positioned for year end. Not a whole lot going on.

European news seems concentrated on Spain and its deficit cutting. Today the Spanish PM announced 14.9 billion Euros in deficit reduction, made up of both spending cuts and higher taxes.

S&P index is, at the moment, poised to post it’s 3rd straight year of positive gains, although just barely, and it could easily tip negative for the year by the end of the day. Currently up just .38% on the year, it needs to stay above 1257 to post a positive year. At 1262 as I type.

Not a whole lot more to say…although I’m sure john could add some pithy comments even as the markets sputter to a year end close. Here’s to hoping for continued improvement in 2012. Happy New Year, all.

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I don’t watch much in the way of television, especially what I consider Reality TV, but my daughter sent me this because she knows I love this song, I mean don’t we all? I guess this guy lost out to a female singer but I thought his rendition of “At Last” was both interesting and unusual. This vid is full of XFactor bullshit so skip ahead to 2:13 if you just want to hear the song…………………..I think it’s worth it.

And I’m so lame, I’ve only figured out how to put one video in a single post……………and then I can only add text above it (sounds like a New Year’s Resolution to me), so if anyone has any other great music to put up……………………..please just do it.

I posted three, LMS, – an iconic jazz band – Hall, Desmond, Baker, Gadd; Knopfler and his roots band Notting Hillbillies, and Katrina Dideriksen who does broadway stuff for a living and blues for fun – my step-niece.
Mark

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