All Things in Moderation

OK, Kev, I don’t know how good I’ll be at this, but here’s an attempt to take some of the pressure off of you!

I find this to be wonderful, especially since Jon Huntsman is the only Republican in the field that I’d ever vote for.  Unfortunately, I doubt he’ll make it past South Carolina.

I don’t know if any of you are watching Once Upon a Time on Sunday nights, but if you aren’t I think many of you would really enjoy it.  Hulu has all of the current episodes up until Monday night so you can watch them back-to-back and get caught up in the story if you’re so inclined.

Now for the things that tickled my funny bone today. . .

First up, a nurse vs an Orthopedic surgeon.  Worth it for hearing her call him a slack bloody wanker at the end. . .

Muppet Labs–where the future is being made today.  Wouldn’t this be handy?

And to combine two of Kevin’s favorites, Star Wars meets the Muppet Show!

And finally, not necessarily funny, but the video popped up on the sidebar of YouTube while I was surfing around on it, so here’s one of my all-time favorite songs. . .

What do you guys got??

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The 5 Reasons Marriage Scares Men. I think many of these could apply to women, although they might be repurposed into the 5 Reasons Why Being Married Disappoints Women. My experience has been that women are usually enthusiastic about the idea of marriage, but not as typically satisfied with the results.

My observation, having been married 19 years now and living with my wife for over 20, is that marriage is a relationship where both partners tend to feel they are compromising, on everything, 90% of the time, and it gets old. For both of them. It’s a recipe for mutual dissatisfaction, especially over the long haul, but having been a parent for 14 years now, I’d definitely agree that I would not want to be a single parent. When your partner is in a mood for the thirteenth-thousand time, and you have to deal with it, you wonder what either of you were thinking when you said “I do”. 😉

Still, the fact is, the house looks a whole lot better—and a whole lot more adult, and clean—than it would if I lived alone in my Layer of Masculinity that I do, on many occasions, pine for. And meals are healthier than having breakfast cereal for dinner every day, which would probably be what I’d do, if left on my own.

— KW

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Before you make up you mind to re-elect President Obama, here’s what you’re voting for, according to Glenn Greenwald:

Yes, I’m willing to continue to have Muslim children slaughtered by covert drones and cluster bombs, and America’s minorities imprisoned by the hundreds of thousands for no good reason, and the CIA able to run rampant with no checks or transparency, and privacy eroded further by the unchecked Surveillance State, and American citizens targeted by the President for assassination with no due process, and whistleblowers threatened with life imprisonment for “espionage,” and the Fed able to dole out trillions to bankers in secret, and a substantially higher risk of war with Iran (fought by the U.S. or by Israel with U.S. support) in exchange for less severe cuts to Social Security, Medicare and other entitlement programs, the preservation of the Education and Energy Departments, more stringent environmental regulations, broader health care coverage, defense of reproductive rights for women, stronger enforcement of civil rights for America’s minorities, a President with no associations with racist views in a newsletter, and a more progressive Supreme Court.

The entire essay is worth reading. He spends a lot of time on the dangers of partisan loyalty and how that will only get worse as the election gets closer. I think that’s the biggest problem. The “It’s okay — it’s out team” phenomenon.

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Vital Statistics:

Jobs Friday. Yesterday’s ADP report did indeed signal a stronger jobs report today. Nonfarm payrolls were up 200k, and Nov was revised down. The unemployment rate dropped to 8.5% from 8.7%. Manufacturing was up 23k, and construction was up 17k. On the service side, retailwas up 28k and transport was up 50k. This could be temp jobs related to the holidays, so take the report with a grain of salt when trying to draw conclusions for the economy as a whole.

I think Scott posted something from James Pethokoukis yesterday regarding Obama’s plan to have the GSEs refinance everyone who is current in their mortgage, no questions asked. The hitch in this plan is the originator. Anyone who originates a conforming mortgage for the GSEs has what is called put-back risk. In other words, if it turns out that the originator had done a poor underwriting, the GSE can force the underwriter to buy it back. And for that reason, no originator is going to refi underwater mortgages or people with dented credit. Even if Obama winks at the originators and says “don’t worry about put-back risk,” I doubt that would be enough comfort, since the rules can always be changed retroactively, and any banker with grey hair will remember the supervisory goodwill fiasco from the S&L crisis. Plus, what is the upside of refinancing an underwater loan for 4.2%? The same as the upside of refinancing a 80% LTV loan for 4.2%. In other words, there is no compensation for taking Obama risk. Which is why it won’t have the effect he hopes it will.

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Economics has been blessed with the title “the dismal science”. That title, like most, can
be interpreted in a number of ways and it is, I suspect, often interpreted as a wry
comment on just how dry and dull the decidedly text-laden, and not terribly visual, science
of economics actually is. Economics activity, or the lack thereof, has, however, a
tendency to reveal difficult truths.
Iran appears, at the moment, to be a case in point.
As Iranian threats to close the Strait of Hormuz and a warning to a U.S. aircraft carrier not to return have understandably drawn attention, the Iranian currency, the rial, has lost a third of its value causing a sharp rise in the cost of imported goods and Iranians are reported to be stocking up on goods.
Current economic difficulties appear to be, in part, the result of Iranian domestic economic policy and sanctions.
Furthermore, the future does not augur well. The EU recently imposed curbs on Iranian oil imports to Europe in an attempt to force Iran to abandon efforts to produce nuclear weapons and the Obama Administration has prepared new punitive measures aimed at Iran’s oil revenues.
Amidst all the bellicose statements coming from Iran, the bellicose statements directed against it, as well as all the talk of Iran coming to play a more prominent role in the region, it is worth pausing to note what appear to be real weakness and difficulties with Iran itself.

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10 Toys That Made Sense in Their Era and Nowhere Else.

Fully jointed, too. Hmph.

Women are a Mystery to Stephen Hawking.

The Problem With Carbon Taxes.

How Much Money Will You Spend To Look Stupid While Playing Video Games?

Bradley Cooper as Lex Luthor? That should be interesting.

All I got. Sleep well, peoples. — KW

Mark adds that Texans sometimes can almost unanimously get it right! 

Thinks he is popular in Lubbock…

For those of you who don’t like Craig James — and judging from polls and other measuring sticks, that’s pretty much everybody — his campaign for U.S. Senate has been like the 12 days of Christmas, with enough goodies left over to celebrate the eight days of Hanukkah. And the week of Kwanzaa.
Actually, there’s enough here to carry into the New Year, way past April Fool’s Day (U.S. Sen. Craig James!) and onto the Fourth of July. Maybe even into Halloween. What ridiculous costume are you going to wear? Me, I’m thinking of going as U.S. Sen. Craig James.

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Vital Statistics:

Markets are down slightly on a couple of lukewarm bond auctions in France and Hungary. This also begins pre-announcement season, where companies who are going to miss their quarterly numbers fess up. Today’s names: Tesoro, J.C. Penney, and Eli Lilly.

Initial Jobless Claims continued their 375k a week pace, lower than the 400k pace we had been accustomed to. The ADP number was way better than expected, forecasting 325k jobs being created in December, vs expectations of 178k.

The Fed released a white paper yesterday discussing the US housing market and possible policy responses to it. I have not read it yet, and I will give you my take when I have finished it. They do suggest that the GSEs relax refinancing guidelines, and that the government find a way to encourage foreclosures to be turned into rental properties. Anecdotally, here in the Northeast, I do find that banks are very reluctant to move off of their offering prices in short sale situations, which signals they know something is in the works.

Today is the first Thursday of the month, which means retailers are giving their comp sales numbers. The winners: Macy’s, The Limited, Zumiez. Losers: J.C. Penney, Target, Kohl’s, The Gap, and American Eagle. Margin pressure continues to signal that the consumer is very value conscious and that promotional activity drove sales.

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In light of Iowa, and the general tenor and direction of the GOP race for the nomination, and
for that matter the general tenor and direction of the party as a whole, the Tea Party deserves kindness and understanding and a dismissive and cruel sneer.

The Tea Party should be forgiven. Our endeavors often come to nothing
and it becomes apparent that our our efforts were ludicrous from the start. Life is like that. For that reason, the Tea Party deserves kindness and understanding. As do we all.

And after all the bluster, all the talk, after all the risible history lessons (that is to say after all the strange, crackpot accounts of historical events), after all the comical claims to have, God knows how, privileged access to the consciousnesses of “the founders” and to know all their wishes for us, their progeny, after all the nonsense about “socialism”, after all the excuses
for, confusingly, not manning the barricades when a Republican president was spending, after prattling on and on about smaller government while guarding medicare like a rabid, starving, snarling cur protecting a bone with a scrap of meat clinging to it, after all
that, the Tea Party deserves cruel smirks, mockery, and open scorn.

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We need more people to post here. I got writer’s block or something. 😉

The perfect epitaph. — KW

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Vital Statistics:

Markets are giving back some of yesterday’s gains on a slow news day.

The Fed announced yesterday that they will be more transparent in forecasting interest rates in the future. The ironic thing is that when I studied money and banking way back in the day, the view was that if the market perfectly anticipated Fed policy, it would be ineffective. The Fed had to surprise the market for policy to have its full effect. I believe this will probably be temporary – the Fed knows it has to extricate itself from the financial system and that rates eventually have to go up. The Fed is going to ensure that increases are well-telegraphed and that people have ample time to adjust.

Not a lot of economic data this morning. We will have jobless claims tomorrow and payrolls / unemployment on Friday.

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