Anniversaries and a Local Connection to Libya

Hi All,

I’m really sorry I missed the Anniversary.  I wanted to bring balloons and a banner and have a real party but thankfully Scott wrote a nice post and the rest of you joined in with congratulations to ATiM and each other.  Next year we’ll have a big bash with music, speeches and lots of toasts.   I should be able to drink something stronger than apple juice by then.  I’ll just reiterate everyone’s appreciation of Brent and his morning reports and a heartfelt thanks to the rest of you who have taken the time to publish posts and participate in the comments and have also helped with the technical end of things.

Like many of you I’ve learned considerably more about subjects I wasn’t previously that familiar with, discovered interesting tidbits of information about each of you (an unfolding mystery), and personally confronted a few more short-comings in myself than I originally bargained for.  It’s been an interesting endeavor, so thanks everyone.  It’s true; I did tell Scott I hated him once (thanks for telling everyone….lol), about three years ago.  What he forgot to mention, or may have simply forgotten, is that I also apologized right away.  I realized even then, that although we were strangers (much more so then than now) and I didn’t appreciate or like what he was saying, he certainly didn’t deserve my hate.  I was embarrassed I’d even said it as I had gotten caught up in the moment of a heated exchange on health care reform, something I am very passionate about.  No excuses though, even as a few come to mind…………………….hahahahaha.

It’s been a rough year for me health wise, and I’ve been away from ATiM almost as much as I’ve been around.  I’m hopeful all that’s behind me now once I get caught up on my sleep and finish this last round of antibiotics, which I’m having a little trouble keeping down………yuck.   What I learned in the past six or seven months is that my efforts at being healthy my entire adult life didn’t protect me from a health threat I hadn’t anticipated or an unexpected depletion of our funds set aside for emergencies.  What I thought was, and probably should have been, a fairly routine bout of food poisoning in March got very complicated and damn near killed me.   It should be a lesson to all of us that we shouldn’t take our good fortune or good health for granted.   I do feel grateful though that I had some excellent doctors and nurses treating me, even though there were times they seemed more than a little stymied (slightly terrifying), and that I will recover and be as good as new again.  Well, as new as any 62 year old can be, that is.  I’m very cognizant of the fact there are a lot of people who can’t say that with certainty so I feel particularly blessed and more than a little bit lucky right now.

I was in the hospital last week with no access to the internet but I did follow the news a little and read the local newspaper.  I became fascinated with the story behind the so-called film that started, or was blamed for starting, all the trouble in the Middle East.  I’m a big proponent of free speech, as we all are, but it’s a shame so much of this tragedy swirls around what was essentially an alleged con-artist’s effort to stir up trouble and probably rip a few investors off.  I’m speculating here a little but I did have time yesterday to do some research, in between naps……lol.  I don’t know if anyone here has already covered this ground or not, as I haven’t had the chance to read through all the comments yet, but here are a few stories that I found particularly compelling.

Some of you may remember I commented here a couple of times that I quit participating in our local city council meetings and citizen commissions a couple of years ago when our conservative city aligned itself with Arizona’s volatile immigration bill.  One of the reasons I became so disillusioned was because there were outsiders (out of state even) around town agitating community members and our council members were swayed by their arguments.  One day last week I saw this guy’s photo in the paper and recognized him as one of those outsiders.  At the same time all of this was going on in 2010 some anti-Obama/anti-Muslim protesters set up a table just outside of the Post Office handing out fliers and propaganda and generally trying to stir up trouble.  Here’s the local story on this Klein character with the photo I saw.  And apparently the film maker is a CA man as well.

Steven Klein, owner of Wise Home Insurance Services, said he believes Muslim extremists control most of the mosques across the United States and that his intention is only to tell the truth.

A Cal State San Bernardino center that monitors extremist groups describes Klein as part of a national anti-Muslim hate movement.

Klein said he founded a group called Courageous Christians United after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks spurred him to get involved in what he called educating people about Islam. He said he later handed the group over to another person.

He then founded Concerned Citizens for the First Amendment, which also educates people about Islam, he said.

Although he has distributed literature about Islam, Klein said he did not attend protests against the building of a new mosque in Temecula in 2010.

But he said he and other members of Concerned Citizens for the First Amendment distributed leaflets on Islam in high schools across Southern California, including in Temecula, Corona, Murrieta, Norco and Menifee.

Klein said he has written on issues other than Islam, targeting illegal immigration, gays and lesbians serving in the military and Mormonism. But he said he has not attended or organized demonstrations on those issues.

The Southern Poverty Law Center, which monitors hate activity, on Wednesday put out a dossier on Klein. The center quotes him from his Facebook page in 2011 as saying Muslims “are a cancer that WILL attack us and KILL as many as they can to further the Islamic doctrine of Sharia law … Beware, there IS a holy war coming.”

I’m tempted to email all of these stories to the council members and my friend who is the Mayor Pro Tem right now, but I promised my husband I would stay out of it.  Small town politics can get pretty ugly as I’ve discovered anew in the last four years.

Here’s another piece I read that details more on the film-maker and highlights rather obviously that the initial media reports weren’t exactly accurate.  Apparently he’s a convicted meth cooker and scam artist still on probation and not of Israeli origin.  No wonder he went into hiding.

As an example of the early reporting, here is the opening of a top story in the Los Angeles Times, based on AP reporting: “An Israeli filmmaker based in California who made a movie belittling Islam’s prophet Muhammad that has ignited Middle East riots and led to the death of the U.S. ambassador in Libya says he is in hiding. Sam Bacile, 56, who described himself as an ‘Israeli Jew’ who develops real estate in California, told the Associated Press by phone that he went into hiding Tuesday after assaults by conservative Muslims on U.S. missions in Egypt and Libya.”

The AP, in an early report, flatly called Bacile “an Israeli fillmmaker.” Even Haaretz, the Israeli newspaper, published this under the headline, “Israeli Filmmaker in Hiding.”

The media accounts on “Bacile” slowly fell apart as the day wore on yesterday, as I documented here in update, thanks mainly to reporting by blog sites, including Gawker, Buzzfeed and Jeffrey Goldberg at The Atlantic’s site. Then last night, the AP weighed in with an excellent report that seemed to track down the real Bacile, using some fine investigative techniques, and outed him as one Nakoula Basseley Nakoula (Basseley=Bacile, for one thing) in Cerritos, California.

And lastly, the LA Times with a little more background on the film’s producers.  A convict and an agitator deny their culpability now that the shit has hit the fan.

One ran a low-profile Christian charity from a sleepy suburb east of Los Angeles. The other was a financially strapped gas station operator just out of federal prison.

In the last year, these men, both Egyptian immigrants, became unlikely collaborators in an endeavor that has shaken the stability of the Middle East.

Joseph Nassralla Abdelmasih, the president of the Duarte-based charity Media for Christ, and Nakoula Basseley Nakoula, a convicted felon from Cerritos, emerged Thursday as forces behind “Innocence of Muslims.”

Both men appeared to have gone into hiding Thursday. As the furor over the film grew, they and their associates have distanced themselves from the production. Nakoula told the Associated Press he was a logistics manager on the movie, not the director. He told a Coptic bishop Thursday that he had no role in it, the clergyman told The Times.

“He denied completely any involvement,” said Bishop Serapion of the Coptic Orthodox Diocese of Los Angeles.

He [Nakoula] was convicted on state drug charges in 1997. In 2010, he was convicted in an identity theft scheme. According to the court file, Nakoula, who ran gas stations in Hawaiian Gardens, operated under a dizzying array of aliases, including Kritbag Difrat. He was sentenced to 21 months in federal prison and was released last summer.

Somewhere in the links above is mentioned the lack of public interest in the film itself.  Apparently, there was a viewing of the entire film in a theater recently and no one showed up, literally, not a single person.  This kind of story is right up my alley but the really sad aspect to all of it is, of course, the loss of life.  The thing with free speech is that there are consequences and they generally rest on those who abuse the privilege.  Even if it is ultimately discovered, as the speculation now suggests, that the assault on the consulate was planned and carried out separately from the protests surrounding the youtube trailer of the film, the so-called film will always be associated with the deaths of at least four Americans.

Update 1……….I got a kick out of reading the diet and exercise talk among the guys yesterday but serious congrats to Kevin, McWing and FB’s wife for losing the weight.  Yellow won with the best comment though………OMG.  I’ve always been thin and not a big eater but I’ve gotten too thin this year and am trying to gain back some of the weight I lost.  I was doing pretty well and heading back up to 125 until a little over a week ago, now I get to start all over again as I weighed in at 115 this morning.  I’m still just under 5’9” and big boned so need to get back to about 135 if possible as that’s my healthy weight.  My husband got up to about 235 at 6’2” about 5 or 6 years ago but when he was diagnosed with gout he went on a really strict diet I designed for him and he really lost the extra pounds fast and eliminated the gout as well.  He’s around 200 now which seems to be maintainable and no complaints from the doctors, he’s a swimmer like me and we both ride the stationary bike and I walk our dog most days.  He missed a lot of his workouts earlier this year because of a broken leg but just cut his calories down to make up for it and it seemed to work.  I do most of the cooking and I can tell when he’s gaining a little weight so I just cook a bit differently and he doesn’t even seem to notice……….hahahaha.  I also know when he sneaks out to get a hamburger on the way to the bank or post office and cut back accordingly.

Update 2………….Just read this interview.  I think maybe someone should just wire Romney’s jaw shut at this point.

GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS: How about the film that seems to have sparked all this, the Innocence of Muslims film? Secretary Clinton today said she thought it was disgusting. How would you describe it?

MITT ROMNEY: Well, I haven’t seen the film. I don’t intend to see it. I you know, I think it’s dispiriting sometimes to see some of the awful things people say. And the idea of using something that some people consider sacred and then parading that out a negative way is simply inappropriate and wrong. And I wish people wouldn’t do it. Of course, we have a First Amendment. And under the First Amendment, people are allowed to do what they feel they want to do. They have the right to do that, but it’s not right to do things that are of the nature of what was done by, apparently this film.

GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS: We’ve seen General Martin Dempsey call Pastor Jones to say, “Please don’t promote this film.” You think that’s a good idea?

MITT ROMNEY: I think the whole film is a terrible idea. I think him making it, promoting it showing it is disrespectful to people of other faiths. I don’t think that should happen. I think people should have the common courtesy and judgment– the good judgment– not to be– not to offend other peoples’ faiths. It’s a very bad thing, I think, this guy’s doing.

Happy Saturday everyone!!!!!!!!!

Saturday Football Open Thread, Week Three

Well, Mike’s USF Bulls fell to Rutgers on Thursday night 23 – 13, although in their defense they’d had a short week after a spectacular win over Nevada last Saturday.  Last night’s Washington State/UNLV game was predictable, 35 – 27.  Oklahoma has a bye this week, so you can spend all the time in your yard that you like, okie!  It should be another great weekend for both football and outdoor fun, so what’s going on in the stadia:

Western Michigan is playing Minnesota (line: UMinn, spread 1.0)  Really?  I find it difficult to believe that the Broncos are likely to keep it that close, especially after losing to Illinois in Week One 24 – 7.  But maybe they’ll surprise me.  [Update: Minnesota wins 28 – 23]  So the Broncos did better than I thought they would!

Arkansas State is at Nebraska (line: Nebraska, spread 23)  Don’t know much about either team, other than Fairlington Blade is a life-long Nebraska fan, poor soul.  Go, Huskers!  [Update: Nebraska wins 42 – 13]

Cal at ohio state university (line: osu, spread 17.0)  Please, please, please, Golden Bears!!  Come through for me this weekend!!  [Update: osu wins 35 – 28, dang it.  They clearly used #RomneyStrength]

Virginia is at Georgia Tech (line: GT, spread 10.5)  This game has been a toss-up the last three meetings, so anything goes. . . but for yello’s sake, I hope GT wins.  [Update: GT uses real #RomneyStrength to win 56 – 20.  What a game, yello!!]

Boston College is playing at Northwestern (line: Northwestern, spread 4.5)  Hey–didn’t Jack Ryan go to BC?  Go Eagles!  [Update:  Northwestern 22 – 13]

UMass is in The Big House (line: UMich, spread 45.5)  Some games just shouldn’t be played.  Or scheduled in the first place.  [Update: UMich 63 – 13  Beat the spread and everything]

Navy at Penn State (line: PSU, spread 8.5)  Here’s hoping O’Brien gets his first win.  Heaven knows the players could use it, and please let the kicker make a FG this week. . . [Update: PSU takes this one 36 – 7]

Stony Brook vs Syracuse (no details available at posting time)  This strikes me as one of those football games in which many of us haven’t  heard of half of the teams.  Got any insight for us, Scott?  [Update: Syracuse, 28 – 17]

USC is playing Stanford (boy, Lulu, you picked a bad week to tell me these were your two teams!  line: USC, spread 8.0)  Go Trojan Cardinal!  (And that sounds like a colorful condom or something!)  [Update: Stanford wins in an upset, 21 – 14]

Utah State is at Wisconsin (line: UW, spread 14.0)  I think they’re being overly kind to USU after their win over Utah last week.  They’ve had their big win for the season, the Badgers will probably romp.  [Update:  UW holds USU scoreless in the second half and wins 16 – 14.  USU far exceeded my expectations, and it looks like UW lived “up” to Mark’s.]

Texas will crush Ole Miss (line: UT, spread 10.0)  Mark (no pun intended) my words, UT is going to blow the spread away.  [Update: UT blows the spread away 66 – 31.  *coughmarkcough*]

BYU at Utah (line: BYU, spread 3.5)  Go, Utes!  ‘Nough said.  [Update: Utah wins 24 – 21]

S. Carolina State is at Arizona (no details available at posting time)  C’mon ‘Cats, prove McWing wrong (again)!!  [Update:  Arizona also utilizes #RomneyStrength and smushes SCS 56 – 0.  Three wins in a row, McWing!]

And the mac daddy game this week (as far as I’m concerned, anyway):

Notre Dame at MSU (line: MSU, spread 6.0)  MSU is going for its 16th home victory in a row.  Go State!  8:00 pm edt on ABC.  [Update: Meh.  The Irish win 20 – 3.  MSU played like a third-rate high school team; the O-line was non-existent, the QB was throwing uncatchable passes, when he did throw catchable ones the receivers dropped them. . . horrible, horrible game.  Sigh.]


P.S.  Kevin!  Great to see you–and even better to see you posting!  Who’s your team(s) that I should add to the mix?


Diet and Exercise

On the anniversary post, I was asked for “diet tips” and exercise tips in the comments. So . . . here they are. YMMV.

Situps are a lot easier when you’ve lost 70 lbs. If you can do them at home, in the bed in the morning or whenever when you can grab a minute, you’ll find you can increase the weight you can pull on the crunch machine at the gym. That’s been my experience at least. And having less time to go to the gym, finding times where I can do plain body weight exercises has been a life saver.

Toe lifts can be done almost anywhere, at almost any time. Maybe you can’t run on the treadmill or go for a walk, but toe lifts can help with a lot of those muscles, and you can reach your maximum exertion quickly. There’s always time for toe lifts.

Pushups work a lot of major muscle groups at the same time (proceed with caution if you’ve got back issues). You can do them in all sorts of places. The goal I’ve got is 100 pushups a day. Eventually, 100 in an hour, in sets of 25. I cannot yet complete a full set of 25, but it’s amazing how many muscle groups are improved by developing strength with plank pushups. Haven’t got to a 100 a day, but I’m halfway there (I’ve topped 50, though I still don’t do that every day). But when I started, I was doing sets of 5 and not getting to more than 20 on a good day. It’s just very slow going.

Diet: don’t eat much. Some people go vegan, do Paleo, do Atkins. Everybody has a reason why there way works and radical calorie restriction does not . . . but radical calorie restriction actually does work. At least, it has for me. All I’m doing. Just not eating very much, but trying to get sufficient nutrition to remain healthy. I focus on calories and quantity, and don’t worry much about nutritional value, or whether there is protein or wheat or saturated fats in what I’m eating. I just don’t eat much. And I eat more of fruits and vegetables, if they are part of the meal.

The motivation game is the issue. That’s trickier. I just always keep in mind that the food will be there next week, next month, next year. I don’t have to eat it now. I also keep in mind that the way the brain works (and the reason I was fat in the first place) is that overeating trains the brain to always ask for more. Dopamine receptors go down and dopamine releases go up. So I always think about that, when I’m downstairs, and it’s late, and I’m thinking of snacking. It took three months of very light eating (most of the time) to retrain my brain to stop acting like I was starving because I wasn’t eating second breakfast. Do I want to lose that? I do not. So I skip the late night snack.

Best time of my life, I weighed around 180. I think about that, too. Not that it’s a causal relationship, but it certainly can’t hurt to recreate what components of that time that I can. I think about how I had felt trapped and miserable in high school (when I was fat, out of shape), and how that had seemed to stretch out for decades rather than a few short years. Then how much and how dramatically so much in my life improved during my college years, and just how awesome they were. There were lots of reasons for that, of course, but being slim and fit certainly helped.

And as the quality of my life deteriorated after college in many important ways, I was putting on weight. Hmmmm. Does make a man ponder.

But the improvements in my life, back in the distant past, didn’t happen right away when the needle on the scale first dipped below 180. So I need to maintain, and then judge how things are in my life generally a year from now and two and three years from now. So I keep that in mind as well.

The other bit as regards motivation is spending time (now that I am much skinnier, and generally more fit) enjoying it. Dressing well, admiring myself in the mirror, jumping down the last five or six stairs and landing lightly on my feet. Running a mile on the treadmill, and reflecting on how that would have probably killed me 9 months ago. Thinking about the difference in squeezing through tight spaces or running out to my car or riding rides at the fair. The quality of all these experiences are dramatically better. Do I need to eat dessert that badly?

The answer is no.

Plus, it’s fun, at 43, to be physically fit and attractive. I get looks from, and flirted with by, women half my age. I got the flustered oh-my-gosh-this-an-attractive-man reaction from my daughter’s dance teacher last night, a reaction that I got very familiar with in college. It’s a reaction you only get from women (if you are a man) when they knew you before, and you show up suddenly transformed, for them. They’ve watched you move (abruptly, in their experience, because they have not see you for awhile) from asexual blob of generic humanity to a fit and attractive man radiating strength. It’s not flirting, but it’s an unmistakeable “Wow!” reaction. And one you never get when you’re overweight and out of shape, and not one you get when you move in the other direction. “Wow, you’ve gotten fat!” is a completely different experience.

We’re going on a cruise in November. I weigh now what I weighed when I went to London in college (best trip of my life, for many reasons). I haven’t been this skinny or fit on a nice vacation in 20 years. That’s exciting. I’m going to buy a new suit for the trip, the kind of dress suit that looks great on thin, fit people. And I’m going to look awesome in it. Would I want to spoil that with a cheeseburger (and then another, and then another) or snacks and sugared soft drinks all day long? No, no, I would not. Would it be nice to lose another 5 or 10 lbs before the trip begins? Yes, yes it would. Can I see myself running half-a-mile on a treadmill on the cruise ship each morning? Yes, yes I can. And I couldn’t do that without having done the ground work, or maintaining it. So . . . that’s what I focus on. Because that’s what’s working for me, right now.

A great deal of it is where I keep my mind. Hopefully, I won’t be back here a year from now reporting I’ve gained 50 lbs! I’ve lost weight (I topped out at 300 lbs in high school, bottomed out at 150 lbs 2.5 years later). I got down to 225 before a trip to Mexico in 2008, then shot back up to 270 in 6 months. But I weighed in at 185 lbs this morning. I haven’t weighed that since early 1990.

Now, if I could only will away the perma-flab that comes from having weighed 300 lbs in high school and 270 lbs a year ago. But perma-flab was a problem even at 150 lbs in college, it’s not the kind of thing you fix without surgery. And, at 43, I think I’ll pass on cosmetic surgery. Because I still look drop-dead gorgeous in a suit. 😉

I’m not sure any of this will be beneficial to anybody else. But it’s working for me, for now. And that’s my story.

Or, my story, so far.

Bits & Pieces (Friday Morning Open Mic)

Mitt Romney is looking like a better candidate all the time.

For everyone who ever wondered where the heck some of Superman’s powers came from in Superman II:

Seriously? Super-Kiss? The ability to pull the S off his chest and make it a big cellophane wrapper? And the bad guys “finger beams”? Where are Kryptonian “finger-beams” in the Superman canon?

Susan Solomon chats up stem cells at TED. She brings up Vioxx, a longstanding pharmaceutical bugaboo of mine. Vioxx, for many users, was a miracle drug. For a significant minority of users, it killed them. So, instead of changing the prescription and treatment model, they recalled the drug and took it off the market. Apparently, researching drugs with stem cell cultures could allow us to identify where certain people would be helped and others would die with the use of a drug. That would be a good thing, I would think.

•••

Is Obesity the Greatest Threat To Our National Security? It’s not a good thing, I know. I’ve recently lost 70 lbs myself, and it’s better being thin than fat, all things considered. But I’m not sure I’ve improved our national security by doing so a single iota. I believe this may be hyperbole.

At least we know the Obama’s aren’t pandering to the fat vote. Although I’m not sure that’s politically smart, given how many of them there are.

Do tax cuts for the rich help the economy? Some say no.

•••

Is romance and lots of support and loving and no expectation of anything in return? Not according to Athol Kay on his blog (Married Man Sex Life), and not according to his multitudes of readers, and advice seekers, on the forums of said blog. It can be eye opening, yet I’ve found my experience dovetails with much of what I read.

Being a jerk doesn’t necessarily lead to a great marriage, but being nice and sweet and supportive (at least, for the guy) definitely doesn’t lead there, either. If you’re a hyper-supportive beta-male (like me), you might think it’s just your situation, but apparently it’s played out again and again and again in marriages across the world:

Boy meets girl, boy and girl get married, guy is super-supportive and tries to be romantic and sweet, girl loses attraction, sex practically vanishes. Girl tells boy he needs to be more supportive and nicer and possibly richer and also more obedient and then she will find him more attractive. Boy tries to comply, girl becomes more distant, more nagging, more shrewish, less affectionate, sex disappears completely.

Then, if you read the stories, girl, as often as not, takes her love to town, cuckolds her husband, and then when her adultery is finally discovered, blames him and tries to arrange it so she can have her cake and eat it too (exciting lover and poor beta-husband’s wallet). I haven’t exactly experienced that, but it’s pretty clear lots of guys do. Don’t go searching for Talk About Marriage unless you want to be deeply, deeply depressed.

The answer? Guys need to be men, the captains of their ship, and step up to the plate and have some balls. Turns out, neither Oprah nor Doctor Phil, and not even John Gray (although I devoured his stuff in my late 20s, early 30s, with pretty much zero benefit) have the right advice for men. The right advice turns out to be: man up, and don’t put up with bullshit. Who knew?

Don’t even get me started on the Manosphere. They definitely don’t like the womyn much, or our feminized culture.

•••

I meant to post this yesterday in celebration of ATiM’s anniversary. However, life gets in the way. Since I did not, I get to share this experience:

Coming back from my daughter’s dance class last, I went through a DUI checkpoint that was like nothing I’d ever seen. They randomly picked a stretch of road about a block long, shut off two lanes on either side so all traffic had to be funneled through one lane. There were about 20 officers in the road, about 50 or 60 on the sides, some of them probably technicians or other support people. Along one side there were five or six cruisers with their bars lit, on the other side there were about 25. Going through it, they checked my tags, asked me where I was going, checked my license (checked the cup holders, natch, looking for open containers), and made sure I and my little girl were properly seat-belted.

They were polite as could be, but it was an odd experience. I can’t imagine the open container and seat belt citations could possible pay for a quarter of the expense of such a large operation. There was too much time for seeing the enormity of the stake out and actually getting there for folks not to have plenty of opportunity to put their seat belts on and hide any open containers; they’d have to be actively drunk, and seriously so, to get caught. I heard officers complaining that they’d checked over 40 cars and got nothing. Then I heard another say he saw an open container, but the guy had zoomed on out and gotten away. Nearly 30 cruisers, bars lit, and no one sitting by to chase down a fleeing violator.

Very strange.

Morning Report 9/14/12

Vital Statistics:

  Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1456.8 6.4 0.44%
Eurostoxx Index 2592.6 49.3 1.94%
Oil (WTI) 99.66 1.3 1.37%
LIBOR 0.385 -0.004 -0.90%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 78.9 -0.366 -0.46%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.82% 0.10%  
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 193.7 0.3  

 

Welcome to the world of QEU (QE Unlimited). Markets worldwide rocketed on the Fed’s decision and the rally continues this morning. Commodities have a bid, while bonds and down a point and MBS are flat, continuing the divergence that began on the announcement. 

In economic data, the Consumer Price Index (which became officially irrelevant yesterday) came in at +.6% and retail sales data came in a little better than expected, though higher gas prices may have been driving that number. The dollar continued to weaken against the euro.

The Fed’s announcement had opposite effects on Treasuries and MBS.  Treasuries sold off 2 points on the announcement, while MBS gained a point. While Treasuries did recoup some of their losses, MBS went out at the highs of the day. This puts the 30 year Fixed Best-Ex rate somewhere between 3 3/8% and 3 1/2%. The NY Fed has the particulars on the MBS purchases.

Former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh told CNBC that the Fed’s action reflects deep concerns that the economy is at stall speed or worse. He also noted that the iPhone 5 would have more of an effect on the economy than QE.  Someone else made the same point, and took it further by saying if you believe that incremental consumer spending is good for the economy then you must support the New Deal II. 

The FHFA is developing a new securitization platform as a way to let other lenders compete with Fan and Fred in the secondary market and to reduce the GSEs role in the mortgage markets overall.

Morning Report 9/13/12

Vital Statistics:

  Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1437.0 -2.5 -0.17%
Eurostoxx Index 2546.8 -18.0 -0.70%
Oil (WTI) 97.32 0.3 0.32%
LIBOR 0.389 -0.006 -1.40%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 79.67 -0.071 -0.09%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.73% -0.02%  
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 193.4 0.3  

Markets are lower this morning after initial jobless claims ticked up to 382k and the Producer Price Index showed inflation in check. All eyes turn to the FOMC decision scheduled for 12:30 est. Here is the summary of what to look for. Bonds and MBS are both stronger.

Fannie Mae’s latest issue of Housing Insights does a deep dive into the latest employment statistics. While average weekly earnings have rebounded from the recession, aggregate weekly earnings have not. What did Keynes say about “sticky wages?”  What this means is that wages have recovered for the people that have jobs, but is you add up everyone’s salaries, that number has not. Which pretty much tells us what we already know – wages are flattish and unemployment is high. They blame the construction sector for the weakness.  As I have said before, we have under-built housing for the past 10 years. Tight credit and temporarily depressed housing formation has masked the effect on housing demand. That won’t last forever.

Census points out that median income fell 1.5% in the last two years. Interestingly 2010 was the peak of average or median wages and they have been falling ever since. The two reports do disagree somewhat – Fannie has average wages up about 2% since the recession began, while census shows them 8.1% lower. Both adjust for inflation, and I cannot imagine the difference between median and average would be that great, so I am not sure what is going on there.  Census also notes the income gap is widening, so expect the study to be political fodder.

Rob Chrisman dissects the recent G-fee increase and its effect on the mortgage market. RTWT.

Is the rental boom reaching the end of the line? Maybe in Manhattan.

Happy Anniversary, ATiM

Today is ATiM’s first anniversary, and I think a hearty congratulations are in order, both for the site and for everyone involved in making it the success it has become.

Success, of course, was (and, if we are honest, remains) not assured. Bringing together strong personalities with passionate opinions from as wide a range of ideologies and perspectives as we have here to discuss political issues was always a risky prospect. And while many blogs survive and thrive on the combustible energy and oftentimes unpleasant atmosphere created by such a diverse mix of opinions, from the beginning All Things in Moderation was, as the name implies, intended to be something different. As I wrote in What ATiM is All About, “we created ATiM as a place where political discussion and debate can take place in the absence of the kind of unproductive vitriol that has come to characterize much of blog commentary these days.”

Naturally, we’ve (and especially I’ve) not always succeeded. We lost a few early invitees almost immediately, and a couple more along the way. We’ve had our share of sharp and pissed off exchanges, and a couple of times it seemed, to me at least, like the whole enterprise was going to collapse. But here we still are, going strong, and a lot more positive than negative to show for it.

On a personal level, I truly appreciate ATiM. I have long been a political blog junkie and have been posting on comment boards since I first discovered them over 15 years ago. I’ve jumped from place to place, and had spent the two years prior to ATiM’s inception posting at Greg Sargent’s Plum Line. It had become an extremely unpleasant place to be, but I hung around primarily because of some of the relationships I had developed while there, notably with QB, McWing, and lms. ATiM has allowed me to maintain those relationships, and develop others I never would have, outside of the cesspool that is the Plum Line. I know many of you still participate there, but I for one am thankful that I have no more reason to visit there anymore.

I want to send out a couple of personal thank you’s on this first anniversary. First, to Brent, who’s Morning Report has been crucial to ATiM’s continued existence. I truly believe that without his daily efforts ATiM probably would have died more than once over the last year. He is the unsung hero of ATiM. Also to Mark and Kevin for their efforts at getting ATiM started, Mark behind the scenes recruiting and Kevin for being the technical genius at actually creating the site itself. (I also miss Kevin’s daily Bits n Pieces). And finally, a big thanks to lms. She was the catalyst that got ATiM off the ground. If I am not mistaken, lms and I were debating each other at the Plum Line for longer than anyone else here (except for possibly QB), and given the tone of some of those debates (one early one resulted in lms literally telling me she hated me), she could easily have chosen to leave me out. But she didn’t and for that I am eternally grateful. Here’s to hoping for a lot more debates in the future, lms.

Happy anniversary, ATiM.

ScottC

(Please feel free to add your own anniversary thoughts to the bottom of this post, if you don’t want to make your own new post.)

Morning Report 9/12/12

Vital Statistics:

  Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1435.8 5.2 0.36%
Eurostoxx Index 2568.4 10.7 0.42%
Oil (WTI) 97.4 0.2 0.24%
LIBOR 0.394 -0.005 -1.13%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 79.74 -0.113 -0.14%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.74% 0.03%  
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 193.2 0.1  

Markets are buoyant this morning after a German Court ruled against efforts to block a european rescue fund. Apple is unveiling the iPhone 5 today as well. Mortgage applications rose, while import prices fell. Bonds are down about 3/4 of a point and MBS are down 1/4 or so.

The FOMC starts their two day meeting today, and will release their decision tomorrow around noon. The market expectations are for an extension of ZIRP into 2015 and a new round of bond buying. Given the run we have had in the stock market, we are possibly setting ourselves up for disappointment or a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” reaction.  

If you live in a state with judicial foreclosures (e.g. New York, New Jersey, Florida), you may find that it will cost you more to get a mortgage. Acting FHFA Chairman Ed DeMarco has suggested that Fan and Fred increase their guarantee fees in these states to compensate the fund for the elongated timelines. (It can take 5 years to complete the entire process in NY, while in non-judicial states like AZ the process can be done in 2).  JP Morgan estimates that the proper compensation would be 10 – 20 basis points up front. FHFA intends to put the policy out for comment in the near future, where it will undoubtedly get panned by housing advocates.

WaPo has a long background piece on the CFPB and what it is up to (spraying lenders with subpoenas).

Foreclosure auctions are attracting big institutional money.  Colony, Blackstone, Och-Ziff and Oaktree have raised $8 billion for the activity. The plan is to rent them out of drip them out slowly into a rising housing market. In an era of ZIRP, high single digit rental yields are appealing to yield starved investors.

WHERE WERE YOU?

I was eating breakfast in Nau’s Pharmacy in Austin. The TV was on behind the counter. A moment of consternation. I looked up. The tail of an airliner was sticking out of one of the WTC towers. The next hour passed in a fog. No one left for work. We talked quietly among ourselves. We shed tears. We knew war would follow.

In the days that followed, I learned that my bro-in-law had been making an engineering presentation in Manhattan in the 30s and the building he was in went onto an automated lockdown. My friend’s daughter stepped up from the Metro, a bit late for work at the Pentagon, when that plane hit. There were many more stories from friends. It is still with me.

Morning Report 9/11/12

Vital Statistics:

  Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1431.7 5.3 0.37%
Eurostoxx Index 2521.7 -6.8 -0.27%
Oil (WTI) 96.72 0.2 0.19%
LIBOR 0.399 -0.006 -1.36%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 80.23 -0.172 -0.21%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.68% 0.02%  
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 193.1 0.2  

Markets are stronger this morning after the government sold a stake in AIG and the National Federation of Independent Businesses noted an increase in optimism.  Deutsche Bank is looking to cut $6 billion in expenses by 2015. The trade deficit shrunk from 44B to 42B.  Bonds are up 7 ticks, while MBS are down a couple.

The National Federation of Independent Business released their Small Business Optimism Report for September, which showed improvement, but is still solidly in recession territory. On the positive side, hiring plans are the best they have been in years; but on the negative side, they aren’t hiring now. It also weighs in on QE, asking the obvious question:  “Is anyone not hiring because interest rates are too high?” They also note that “political uncertainty” is at a new high – 22% of respondents cited that as a reason they are sitting on their hands. That said some pizza parlor owners must be doing okay.

Chart:  NFIB Small Business Optimism Index: 

 

Fannie’s first sale of REO-to-Rentals traded at 96% of BPO.  That is an eye-popping number, given that distressed pools have been trading in the mid / high 60s, but this is an oddball transaction – the buyer (Pacifica) will participate in a JV with Fannie, will put up under 16% of the purchase price, manage the properties, split the cash flows with Fannie and will receive a management fee. It seems odd that Fannie is basically buying properties from itself – Pacifica puts up 12.3MM, while Fannie puts up the rest.  Let me guess, there is a mark-to-market angle here…

FHFA and F&F have launched a new Reps and Warranties framework for conventional loans sold after Jan 1.  Put-Back risk – the risk that the government could come after you and force you to re-purchase a loan if the borrower starts missing payments – has been weighing on mortgage bankers and explains why banks have put such stringent overlays on F&F loans. The government will release banks from this requirement if the loan pays consistently for 36 months. For HAMP loans, it will be 12 months.  Co-incidentally, Congress has a re-introduced a bill to expand HARP refis which may contain language regarding the Qualified Mortgage safe harbor provision. The QM has been a big source of uncertainty for lenders. Finally specifying what constitutes are qualified mortgage could go a long way towards getting mortgage credit flowing again.

Redwood is doing another deal – $312 million of jumbos – the 9th deal since the market froze in 2008. Only 9 jumbo securitizations in 4 years. Probably $2 billion in total. To put that number in perspective, non-agency deals topped 1.2 trillion in 2004 and 2005.