A Few of my Favorite Things – Friday Night Bits n’ Bobs

About seven years ago I spent a week touring through southern Germany with my family, culminating with a final 2 days in Salzburg, just across the southeastern border into Austria. Salzburg is a beautiful city, but in order to spend half a day visiting nearby Das Kehlsteinhaus, better known here as The Eagle’s Nest, the only remaining vestige of Hitler’s high command retreat in Obersalzburg, I had to consent to a grueling half day Sound of Music tour with my wife and daughters in and around Salzburg itself. Three hours on a bus with chirpy Julie Andrews singing incessantly in the background. Ugh.

That being said, Maria and the young von Trapps seemed the perfect intro to tonight’s Bits & Pieces, which includes a few of my favorite links that I have collected over the years, ranging from informative to entertaining to complete and utter timewasters. With that in mind…

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I can’t remember how I came across this Famous Trials website, but it is fantastic, complete with synopses, trial transcripts, evidence, photos, and more for any number of historically interesting cases, ranging from the Salem Witchcraft trials, to the Alger Hiss perjury trial, to the 3 trials of Oscar Wilde. Legal Eagles, and wannabes like me, dig in.
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Boomshine, a totally addicting timewaster. Be warned.
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I’m sure few of you would have guessed, but I enjoy arguments. No, really, I’m not kidding. And by arguments I mean formal, logical arguments. Anyone interested in arguing must know, and hopefully avoid, the logical fallacies.
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Jim Boeheim, head coach of the Syracuse University basketball team, has long been known for speaking his mind to the media. This tendency towards bluntness has recently gotten him in some reasonably serious trouble, but as a long-time Syracuse fan it also provided my favorite post-game press conference moment. (Warning…earmuff the little ones):

And, weirdly, the same press conference as re-interpreted by girls in bikinis:

As an aside, speaking of Syracuse basketball, I was actually in attendance at the greatest game in Big East history. It was a long night, but well worth it in the end.

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Ever since I was a little kid, I have been fascinated by the JFK assassination. One of the first books I ever remember checking out of our local public library was a book about the assassination, and over the years I have read pretty much every book that has been written about it. I even have a condensed copy of the Warren Report on my bookshelf. This is been brought to mind because for Christmas I got Stephen King’s most recent book 11/22/63, about a man who goes back in time in an effort to prevent the assassination. I started it on Tuesday morning and finished it yesterday. Thought it was great. Anyway, if you are at all interested in the assassination and the many varied conspiracy theories (and why they are all bunk), this site by John McAdams is a great place to start.
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The Illustrated Road to Serfdom.
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I linked to this once before over at the blog whose name dare not be spoken, but everyone should read this book at some point, and it’s free on the web, so I’ll link to it again: The Ultimate Resource.
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For movie buffs, I give you another boring-day timewaster, Invisibles. You have to name the movie from a still shot taken from one scene, but there’s a catch. All the people – but not their clothes – have been airbrushed out of the photo.
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Another one for movie buffs. Have you ever watched a movie supposedly based on real events and wondered how much of it was true, or what the actual people looked like? Well, now you can find out.

Substitute Morning Report

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures 1261.52 -1.51 0.12%
Eurostoxx Index 2303.7 11.42 0.50%
Oil (WTI) 98.98 -0.67 -0.67%
LIBOR 0.5810 0.000 0.00%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 80.120 -0.366 -0..45%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.871% -0.028%

Last trading day of the year. Should be a very sleepy one. Bond market closes early today, at 2pm est, most desks are operating with skeleton crews, and most books have already been squared/positioned for year end. Not a whole lot going on.

European news seems concentrated on Spain and its deficit cutting. Today the Spanish PM announced 14.9 billion Euros in deficit reduction, made up of both spending cuts and higher taxes.

S&P index is, at the moment, poised to post it’s 3rd straight year of positive gains, although just barely, and it could easily tip negative for the year by the end of the day. Currently up just .38% on the year, it needs to stay above 1257 to post a positive year. At 1262 as I type.

Not a whole lot more to say…although I’m sure john could add some pithy comments even as the markets sputter to a year end close. Here’s to hoping for continued improvement in 2012. Happy New Year, all.

This Guy Lost (Bits & Pieces)

I don’t watch much in the way of television, especially what I consider Reality TV, but my daughter sent me this because she knows I love this song, I mean don’t we all? I guess this guy lost out to a female singer but I thought his rendition of “At Last” was both interesting and unusual. This vid is full of XFactor bullshit so skip ahead to 2:13 if you just want to hear the song…………………..I think it’s worth it.

And I’m so lame, I’ve only figured out how to put one video in a single post……………and then I can only add text above it (sounds like a New Year’s Resolution to me), so if anyone has any other great music to put up……………………..please just do it.

I posted three, LMS, – an iconic jazz band – Hall, Desmond, Baker, Gadd; Knopfler and his roots band Notting Hillbillies, and Katrina Dideriksen who does broadway stuff for a living and blues for fun – my step-niece.
Mark

from brian: what some minnesotans do in an unseasonably warm & snow-free december:

The Brightest Thing in Forty Miles from Leif Enger on Vimeo.

Bits & Pieces (Wednesday Night Open Mic)

And this is probably my last one, until next Monday.

If you’re a fan of the original Fellowship of the Ring, you might want to check out Drew McWeeny’s liveblog of his watching of the Blu-Ray extended-edition of same. I often disagree with Mr. McWeeny, but in this case I think he’s got it exactly right. Love that movie. Love them all, and look forward to getting the extended editions on Blu-Ray in the not-too-distant future.

Also, the latest production video from The Hobbit—in this case covering the huge production that is location shooting on such an elaborate film—is up. Can’t. Wait.

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Honesty in advertising:

From the Very Depressing Children’s Books category:
Here’s a lawsuit waiting to happen:
I didn’t think you could really improve on water. I never considered adding H2O to the mix!
This is why considering the surrounding environment is so important when choosing a retail location.
What’s lurks in the hearts of men (and women)? The shadow knows.
That’s it for tonight. Happy New Years, everybody!

— KW

Morning Report

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures 1263.3 3.1 0.25%
Eurostoxx Index 2294.1 3.790 0.17%
Oil (WTI) 100.9 -0.440 -0.43%
LIBOR 0.5793 0.004 0.61%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 79.741 -0.095 -0.12%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.00% -0.01%

Another low-volume day is on tap with no economic data. Tomorrow, we have initial jobless claims, and if they are good, that may be the excuse portfolio managers use to do a little window dressing on the second-to-last trading day of the year. Separately, Italy had a good bond auction, selling 9 billion euros of debt. Bid to cover was 1.7, and the 10 year yield dropped 14 basis points.

Is the US going to bail out Europe? A commentary piece in this morning’s WSJ suggests we already are. We are lending to the ECB through currency swaps, which aren’t technically loans. The ECB then lends dollars to the sick banks of Europe.

Money quote from the article: “This Byzantine financial arrangement could hardly be better designed to confuse observers, and it has largely succeeded on this side of the Atlantic, where press coverage has been light. Reporting in Europe is on the mark. On Dec. 21 the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung noted on its website that European banks took three-month credits worth $33 billion, which was financed by a swap between the ECB and the Fed. When it first came out in 2009 that the Greek government was much more heavily indebted than previously known, currency swaps reportedly arranged by Goldman Sachs were one subterfuge employed to hide its debts.

When is the next Humphrey-Hawkins anyway?

Bits & Pieces (Tuesday Night Open Mic)

New homes sales were up in November, but 2011 figures still suck. But, maybe November is a good sign?
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Animals’ reactions to being placed inside a cardboard box:
Hat tip to Ace of Spades HQ. Also from Ace of Spades:
It’s funny because it’s true. Also from Ace, to Troll McWingnut’s point about Ron Paul not being a great contrarian voice

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Also, Kraft’s Velveeta Fudge recipe. If you go that route, don’t be afraid to throw in an extra teaspoon of vanilla. The more fattening version uses full fat Velveeta (what I’d recommend) and adds a 1/2 cup of dry milk.

I’ve never had the more elaborate Paula Deen version, but it looks evil. Watch Ellen Degeneres help her make it. She rolls it peanuts, but I’d still go for the pecans, if I were you. My theory is that you ought to add a little extra Velveeta, vanilla, and pecans to any Velveeta fudge you choose to make. Feel free to double pecans and vanilla, maybe add another a couple of cubes of Velveeta (up it about 15%). But, that’s me, your mileage may vary.

— KW

I Hope I Never Have to Look for a Job Again

I will not do well with interview questions like these, in part because they piss me off. But then, I’ve never been a fan of brain teasers.

Although I’ve been through my share of irritating job interviews. I had one where the guys wanted me to write out a SQL query longhand to create a database an automatically populate it and some other stuff—and I would never be able to write out an extended SQL procedure and have it work the first time. They could have just asked me that to begin with, and saved us all a lot of time. Almost nothing I write works the first time—I write, debug, write some more, debug some more, look on the Internet to see how this or that works again, to refresh my memory.

Of course, I’ve been on the opposite end of that, interviewing people for a position who didn’t seem to read the job description. We were always explicit about what you should know about, yet people would show up not knowing any of things we had asked about. It just mystified me.

Of course, the qualified people often bailed when they found out what the position was offering. We were cheap. Of course, if any of those people are still working in the design field, they probably aren’t making any more than what we offered at the time. Graphic design has a definite undersupply of jobs and an oversupply of talent.

Morning Report

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures 1263 2.7 0.21%
Eurostoxx Index 2293.2 2.790 0.12%
Oil (WTI) 100.53 0.850 0.85%
LIBOR 0.5758 0.002 0.35%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 79.844 -0.077 -0.10%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.02% 0.00%

Hope everyone had a good Christmas.

Markets are up this morning in thin holiday trading. Needless to say, not a lot of news this Tuesday morning after the holiday.

Case-Schiller was released this morning, and the results are slightly lower than expected. The 20 city index dropped 3.4% at an annual rate to 140.3, which puts the US real estate market back to May of 2003 levels. Denver and Washington DC were up in Oct, while Detroit and Atlanta experienced 2% + declines. Remember, there is a lag with CS, so these numbers are October numbers and we are going into a seasonally weak period. I wouldn’t be surprised to see prices take out the post recession lows this spring.

On the bright side, consumer confidence has rebounded smartly from this summer’s lows. The conference board consumer confidence level came in at 64.5 vs. street expectations of 58.9. While we are still at extremely depressed levels historically, the mood has brightened considerable with the index jumping from 40.9 in Oct to 64.5 in Dec. Interestingly, the retail ETF (XRT) yawned at the number – I would have expected to see analysts take up their comp sales estimates for Dec. Retailers will report Dec comp sales on Jan 5.

Chart: Consumer Confidence

Good Morning TMW

We are on the road in 25 minutes or so, and I won’t check in again until tomorrow night, but I thought TrollMcWingnut would find this NYT column of interest.

DECEMBER 26, 2011, 9:00 PM

Whose Tea Party Is It?

Newt Gingrich’s brief turn as presidential front-runner was only the latest paroxysm of a tumultuous Republican primary season. What’s going on? Tensions within the Tea Party help explain the volatility of the Republican primary campaign, as candidates seek to appeal to competing elements of the Tea Party with varying success.
For our new book, “The Tea Party and the Remaking of Republican Conservatism,” we interviewed Tea Party activists across the country over a sixteen-month period and found that the movement is not the monolith it is sometimes portrayed as. The conservative political upsurge has grassroots and elite components with divergent interests and goals. Mitt Romney, no favorite of the Tea Party grassroots, is currently pitching his candidacy to Tea Party elites, while Newt Gingrich and other contenders are vying for the rank-and-file Tea Party supporters.
We learned about grassroots Tea Party groups by attending their meetings, interviewing active members and reading hundreds of their websites and message boards. In early 2011, these Tea Partiers had no consistent favorite for the Republican nominee, supporting everyone from Ron Paul to Mike Huckabee to Donald Trump, but they did have one goal in mind for 2012: beating Barack Obama. As one Tea Party member we met in Virginia put it, “we have to get Obama out. Obama and the Communists he’s surrounded himself with.”
In recent weeks, Gingrich has reached out to these grassroots Tea Party voters, older white middle-class conservatives who remember him from his glory days as an insurgent Democrat slayer. Gingrich’s aggressive style and blistering critiques of the Democrats resonate with Tea Party voters. Gingrich has accused Democrats of socialist tendencies for decades; as early as 1984, he claimed that a Democratic member of the House of Representatives was distributing “communist propaganda.”

But Gingrich has also tapped into what we identified as Tea Partiers’ most fundamental concern: their belief that hardworking American taxpayers are being forced to foot the bill for undeserving freeloaders, particularly immigrants, the poor and the young. Young people “just feel like they are entitled,” one member of the Massachusetts Tea Party told us. A Virginia interviewee said that today’s youth “have lost the value of work.”
These views were occasionally tinged with ethnic stereotypes about immigrants “stealing” from tax-funded programs, or minorities with a “plantation mentality.” When Gingrich talks about “inner-city” children having “no habits of working,” he is appealing to a widely held sentiment among the Tea Party faithful.
What’s more, Gingrich’s comparatively humane stance on immigration reform — offering immigrants a path to legal status with the approval of local community members — is more palatable to Tea Party members than one might expect. First, it reduces federal authority over a key Tea Party issue, a policy that appeals to the “states’ rights” conservatives who fill the seats at Tea Party meetings. Crucially, Gingrich is not offering, as Rick Perry did, taxpayer-funded benefits to unauthorized immigrants, a policy described by one Tea Party activist we spoke to as money wasted on “moochers.”
Immigration was always a central, and sometimes the central, concern expressed by Tea Party activists, usually as a symbol of a broader national decline. Asked why she was a member of the movement, a woman from Virginia asked rhetorically, “what is going on in this country? What is going on with immigration?” A Tea Party leader in Massachusetts expressed her desire to stand on the border “with a gun” while an activist in Arizona jokingly referred to an immigration plan in the form of a “12 million passenger bus” to send unauthorized immigrants out of the United States.
In a survey of Tea Party members in Massachusetts we conducted, immigration was second only to deficits on the list of issues the party should address. Another man, after we interviewed him in the afternoon, took us aside at a meeting that evening to say specifically that he wished he had said more about immigration because that was really his top issue.
Tea Party activists are not uniformly opposed to government social programs, however. Our interviewees were very anxious that Social Security and Medicare be maintained. “I’ve been working since I was 16 years old, and I do feel like I should someday reap the benefit. I’m not looking for a handout. I’m looking for a pay out of what I paid into,” one Tea Party member explained. Their support for these programs was not just self-interested; several Tea Partiers said they would take a benefit cut if the savings stayed in the Social Security fund. One woman, a regular attendee of her local Tea Party, offered solutions that seemed totally out of keeping with the stereotypes of Tea Party members as knee-jerk tax cutters. After suggesting that any benefit cuts be aimed at those in the “upper income brackets,” she went so far as to say that she “would not mind a tax increase to try to get the country right again.”
Given the Tea Partiers’ abiding support for two key pillars of the American social safety net, it is no surprise that Gingrich’s plan for a Social Security overhaul is aimed only at young workers, not the retirees filling the rows at Tea Party meetings. But Mitt Romney has taken a different path, expressing his support for the Ryan budget plan that features huge tax cuts for the very wealthy paid for with relatively near-term Medicare cuts.
Many observers have suggested that Romney’s support for the unpopular Ryan budget was a misstep. But considered from another perspective, Romney is making a strategic move to aim for a different part of the Tea Party, the free-market elites and funders.
Cutting these programs is unlikely to appeal to the grassroots Tea Party, but local Tea Party members are only marginally aware of the national advocacy occurring in their name. Asked about national groups, local activists tended to shake their heads in confusion. In a typical complaint, one leader of a local Arizona Tea Party group told us, “sometimes when you sign up for a site, it puts out tentacles,” sharing information so that visitors receive a bewildering array of emails from other groups.Long-standing elite advocacy organizations that rallied around the Tea Party label in 2009 and 2010, like FreedomWorks and Americans for Prosperity, were crucial to the Tea Party phenomenon, providing funding for national rallies and conservative candidates, and focusing attention on well-practiced spokespeople to represent the Tea Party in the media and in Washington. But the national advocates have only tenuous ties to the grassroots Tea Party groups and are in no way accountable to the Tea Party at the local level. Their policy agenda is different as well. FreedomWorks and Americans for Prosperity have sought major reforms of Social Security and Medicare for years — long before the Tea-Party label gained currency.
Tea Partiers also receive their information primarily, or in some cases exclusively, from Fox News and talk radio, outlets that are unlikely to turn a critical eye on conservative advocacy organizations. This lack of connection between grassroots and elite Tea Party-ism may allow Romney to placate the wealthy opponents of Social Security and Medicare without irking the Tea Party base.
For both Romney and Gingrich, appealing to the Tea Party is a bit of a stretch. Both men have been around too long not to have taken positions too moderate for the new, extreme-right, tea-infused Republican Party. In particular, there is little Romney can do to make Tea Party activists enthusiastic about him during the primary season. Though his claims to a businessman’s expertise should appeal to the many small business owners in the Tea Party, no one we interviewed had good things to say about anything but his potential electability.
But Republican primary voters, including those in the Tea Party, want to win the 2012 general election. As one Tea Partier told us, Romney is “not quite conservative enough – but we have to get Obama out.” They will overlook past heresies, even “RomneyCare,” in a candidate they believe can win the general election.
As long as the big Tea Party funders back Romney’s candidacy or stay on the sidelines, Romney has a good chance of riding out other candidates’ surges in popularity and using his vast organizational and financial advantages to beat out his opponents for the Republican nomination. At that point, the grassroots Tea Party members will have little influence; instead, momentum will shift even further towards the elite policy advocates. And these well-funded groups, which benefited from the Tea Party’s momentum in the first years of the Obama administration, will continue to seek their own policy goals, including those at odds with the positions of local Tea Partiers.
Theda Skocpol, a professor of government and sociology at Harvard University, and Vanessa Williamson, a graduate student in government and social policy at Harvard, are the authors of the new book “The Tea Party and the Remaking of Republican Conservatism.”

LIONS!

That is all.