Open Thread: Your Take on the Debate 9/27/16

There was a debate last night.  International currency traders thought HRC won, 15 minutes in, and did not change their opinion going forward.  This was explained this morning by an executive at Forex.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2016/09/27/trump-lost-the-debate-in-first-few-minutes-according-to-currency-markets-and-gamblers/

Your thoughts?

Charles Grassley, [R] of IA, Adopts my Anti-trust Mantra

Of course, considering who are the players, it is no wonder why.

see: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/15/business/dealbook/monsanto-bayer-deal.html?emc=edit_dk_20160920&nl=dealbook&nlid=55859017&te=1&_r=0

 

Evening Report 8/30/16

Syracuse, ostensibly an FBS football program in a P5 conference, opens against Colgate, an FCS team.

Michigan State, not to be outdone, opens against Furman, which may be in a lower division than even Colgate.

There are some good games scheduled this weekend – real intersectional clashes. ‘Bama is playing USC in Jerryworld. K St. goes to Stanford. UT plays ND Sunday night. Oklahoma is at UH; not a true old fashioned intersectional game, but it does pit preseason #3 against preseason #15. UNC v. UGA, Mizzou at WVa and LSU traveling to Lambeau to play Wiscy round out the potentially good games, I think, except for this one.  UCLA is traveling to College Station to play the benighted Aggies.  Here is UCLA’s take on Aggie “traditions”:

http://www.bruinsnation.com/2016/8/28/12685880/a-bruin-field-guide-to-game-day-strangeness-in-college-station?_ga=1.233849438.1963087941.1472559008

In other news, Turkey needs the west and the west needs Turkey, according to this article:

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21705828-how-manage-relations-natos-most-awkward-member-dont-lose-plot

The EC wants to fine Apple more than a billion Euros for something.

https://espresso.economist.com/5133aa1d673894d5a05b9d83809b9dbe

What Texas state employees earn:

https://salaries.texastribune.org/

And piston engine airplanes are the last major source of lead in the atmosphere.

http://news.mit.edu/2016/unfriendly-skies-piston-engine-aircraft-pose-significant-health-threat-0826

 

August 1, 1966

UT map

I had just walked out of the Law School.

A chunk of limestone chipped off Townes Hall 30’ over my right shoulder and then I heard the c-r-a-c-k. Bullet had beaten the sound.

I had no idea what was happening. Went to my junkie little ‘62 Falcon, turned on the radio, got an earful. Drove out of range to a girlfriend’s apartment where we listened for more than an hour.

Later I learned that folks I knew had been under direct fire – nobody got hit when he shot to the northeast, where I had exited Townes Hall, only on the Mall and on Guadalupe {the Drag].

An acquaintance who later became a friend was then a grad student and a USAF Captain at Bergstrom. He walked out of the then grad library in the Tower and immediately realized what was happening. He ducked back into the doorway and listened to the shots and figured out the timing as Whitman moved around the parapet. He ran out, and pulled someone who was alive into the bushes in front of the plaza. He stayed down. I think he pulled four living victims into the shrubs over the 90 minutes. Later he was stationed in Germany and got his PhD in German military history at Heidelberg, came back to UT and went to law school, and became a lawyer in Austin as a civilian.

My later law partner’s wife was shopping on the Drag when the shooting and the panic ensued. She thought it was “The Revolution”. They owned an old black ’51 Mercedes which looked like a limo. It was 98F or so, typical August 1 in Austin. It was parked on the Drag. She got in and lay down on the floor board for more than an hour. Scared and dehydrated.

That night, at Scholz’s, the famous biergarten a few blocks south of campus, our group of law students drank under the oak tree. She downed a pitcher by herself in half an hour, and couldn’t stop shaking. Rifle shots. People running, screaming, some obviously in pain, and she too scared to get up from the floorboard, unable to help, not actually knowing if it would ever end, or what was actually happening.

Basketball Report

This post was inspired by this Tristan Thompson (TT) hype from ESPN:

http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/120082/tristan-thompson-the-real-mvp

That was the University of Texas connection to the stunning NBA Finals, and our TT’s play was in fact magnificent. Even his little midrange jumper in traffic seemed to float in again and again, and there was no denying his timing, his hustle, his D, and his connection to LeBron James.

But there was also no denying who was the MVP. LeBron James is the only  player ever who could play PG, PF, and defensive rim protector on the same sequence of plays. The man would be competitive with the best at every single position on the floor. In leading his team to a come back three consecutive wins he often eschewed scoring for finding the open man – as he did with Thompson on several memorable plays. On defense, he was the superb rim protector, the thief, and that spectacular late game block on Iguodala’s easy fast break lay up – just how fast can LBJ run the 40? -was one for the ages. Having a terrific shooting guard in Irving opened the floor for him, of course, and it meant that LeBron had to be played one-on-one. But Golden State is an excellent one-on-one defensive team; perhaps that was as crucial to their great regular season total as their extraordinary shooting.

Golden State’s game is Spurs 2014 taken to a different level because the requirement to guard three shooters 25′ or more from the basket opens passing lanes and driving lanes as nothing else. This is a type of game engineered for the reincarnation of Larry Bird. The combination of three great shooters, one agile rim protector who can score when needed, and a slasher/defensive stopper will be the model now that many will try to emulate. If the slasher/defensive stopper is LeBron, or Kawhi, or the second coming of MJ, all the better.

Tristan Thompson is a becoming one model for the agile rim protector in the three out offense. Surely Olajuwon would have been great in this offense, but we will never know. The agile rim protector must be aware of his shooters and get the ball out to them on offense, when he is not wide open underneath or when early in the possession, usually looking to score as the last option and on set plays. This is because three points are cumulatively much better than two per possession. So while Cleveland cannot yet match Golden State from three, and while the Cavs depended on stellar performances from Irving and Thompson and an overwhelming effort from LeBron, I think with one additional sharpshooter they would become nearly unbeatable.

It is to me interesting that in the three point era there have been some teams prior to GSW that could have played like them. I think, particularly, that Stockton-Hornacek averaged nearly 50% from trey some seasons, but did not shoot nearly as often as the Splash Brothers. I am guessing that trusting the three as a staple in the arsenal just took a long time to happen, or it took an assemblage of three sharpshooters at once.

It was a great series. And TT is also terrific in that commercial making fun of old Kobe.

Carbon capture and storage – Turning air into stone 6/11/16

How to keep waste carbon dioxide in the ground
Jun 11th 2016 | From the print edition The Economist |  They probably would have given permission to reprint, right?

THIS year the world’s power stations, farms, cars and the like will generate the equivalent of nearly 37 billion tonnes of waste carbon dioxide. All of it will be dumped into the atmosphere, where it will trap infra-red radiation and warm the planet. Earth is already about 0.85°C warmer than last century’s average temperature. Thanks to the combined influence of greenhouse-gas emissions and El Niño, a heat-releasing oceanic phenomenon, 2016 looks set to be the warmest year on record, and by a long way.

 
It would be better, then, to find some method of disposing of CO 2 . One idea, carbon capture and storage (CCS), involves collecting the gas from power stations and factories and burying it underground where it can do no harm. But CCS is expensive and mostly untried. One worry is whether the buried gas will stay put. Even small fissures in the rocks that confine it could let it leak out over the course of time, undoing much of the benefit. And even if cracks are not there to begin with, the very drilling necessary to bury the gas might create them.

 
A paper just published in Science offers a possible solution. By burying CO 2 in the right sort of rock, a team of alchemists led by Juerg Matter, a geologist at Southampton University, in Britain, was able to transmute it into stone. Specifically, the researchers turned it into carbonate minerals such as calcite and magnesite. Since these minerals are stable, the carbon they contain should stay locked away indefinitely.

 
Dr Matter’s project, called CarbFix, is based in Iceland, a country well-endowed with both environmentalism and basalt. That last, a volcanic rock, is vital to the process, for it is full of elements which will readily react with carbon dioxide. Indeed, this is just what happens in nature. Over geological timescales (ie, millions of years) carbon dioxide is removed from the air by exactly this sort of weathering. Dr Matter’s scheme, which has been running since 2009, simply speeds things up.

 
Between January and March 2012 he and his team worked at the Hellisheidi geothermal power station, near Reykjavik. Despite its green reputation, geothermal energy—which uses hot groundwater to drive steam turbines—is not entirely emissions-free. Underground gases, especially CO 2 and hydrogen sulphide (H 2 S), often hitch a ride to the surface, too. The H 2 S, a noxious pollutant, must be scrubbed from the power-station exhaust before it is released, and the researchers worked with remainder, almost pure carbon dioxide.

 
They collected 175 tonnes of it, mixed it with a mildly radioactive tracker chemical, dissolved the mixture in water and pumped it into a layer of basalt half a kilometre below the surface.  They then kept an eye on what was happening via a series of monitoring wells. In the event, it took a bit less than two years for 95% of the injected CO 2 to be mineralised.
They followed this success by burying unscrubbed exhaust gas. After a few teething troubles, that worked too. The H 2 S reacted with iron in the basalt to make pyrites, so if exhaust gas were sequestered routinely, scrubbing might not be needed. This was enough to persuade Reykjavik Energy, the power station’s owners, to run a larger test that is going on at the moment and is burying nearly 10,000 tonnes of CO 2 and around 7,300 tonnes of H 2 S.

 
Whether CarbFix-like schemes will work at the scale required for fossil-fuel power stations remains to be seen. In these, the main additional pollutant is sulphur dioxide, which has different chemical characteristics from hydrogen sulphide. Scrubbing may therefore still be needed. Another constraint is the supply of basalt. Though this rock is common, it is found predominantly on the ocean floor. Indeed, geologically speaking, Iceland itself is a piece of ocean floor; it just happens to be above sea level. There are some large basaltic regions on dry land, but they are not necessarily in convenient places.

 
Nevertheless, if the will were there, pipelines from industrial areas could be built to carry exhaust gases to this basalt. It has not, after all, proved hard to do the reverse—carrying natural gas by pipeline whence it is found to where it is used. It is just a question of devising suitable sticks and carrots to assist the process. How much those sticks and carrots would cost is crucial. But Dr Matter’s proof of the principle of chemical sequestration in rock suggests it would be worth finding out.

BLS Report for April 5/6/16

Payroll employment increases by 160,000 in April; unemployment rate unchanged at 5.0%

05/06/2016

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 160,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.0 percent. Employment increased in professional and business services, health care, and financial activities. Job losses continued in mining.

A Real, Honest-to-God, Bipartisan Issue! 5/2/16

http://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21697826-how-cost-benefit-analysis-might-save-americas-criminal-justice-system-when-economists-turn

It seems that prison reform, especially reduction of incarcerations, is widely agreed to be a worthy goal.

In passing, we read here that prison costs Americans $80B annually, that 1/5th of the world’s prison population is in the USA, and 70M Americans have criminal records.

Get Your Piece of ARAMCO 4/26/16

The 31 YO rising star of the Saud dynasty, Mohammed bin Salman, has announced a broad goal of bringing Saudi Arabia into the mid 19th Century by 2030.  Being an incrementalist myself, I recognize some movement out of the Ston[ing] Age as a positive.

http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21697673-bold-promises-bold-young-prince-they-will-be-hard-keep-saudi-arabias

One worry everyone in the west seems to share is that the blowback from other parts of the family will stifle this little candle in the night.

I also must wonder if it is a good business decision to do an IPO of 5% of the nation’s wealth when the current pricing for its one commodity is low.  That move has an air of desperation to me.

 

Am I wrong?  Why?

 

Just in Case Brent Doesn’t do his Thing 4/4/16

This group actually survives because of Morning Report.  Here is an Open Thread, just in case Brent doesn’t make it in to work for us this morning.

 

Propulsion at significant fractions of the speed of light:

http://www.gizmag.com/laser-light-propulsion/41980/?utm_source=Gizmag+Subscribers&utm_campaign=3fcf87e838-UA-2235360-4&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_65b67362bd-3fcf87e838-90358962

 

Supremes uphold one-man one-vote based on population.

http://www.texastribune.org/2016/04/04/texas-case-supreme-court-upholds-one-person-one-vo/

 

The Economist weighs in against a merger of the German and London Exchanges.

http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21695928-bigger-may-not-be-better-when-it-comes-clearing-houses-double-crossed

 

A good compilation of links on the Kurds.

http://www.fpa.org/great_decisions/index.cfm?act=topic_detail&topic_id=52

The Kurds still revere GWB for liberating them, but it seems we are back into the morass of petty local reasons why other groups want them marginalized.  Meanwhile, they are the only dependable force against ISIS on the ground.  There’s a lot of stuff there a new Administration might want to consider.