Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Arcanaut
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojkt
Stocks are higher this morning after a decent jobs report. Bonds and MBS are down.
The economy added 130,000 jobs in January, according to the BLS. November and December payrolls were revised downward by 17,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.7% YOY. Health care, social assistance and construction accounted for the majority of the job gains, while financial activities and government declined.
The number of employed people increased by 528k, while the number of unemployed people fell by 141k. Those not in the labor force fell by 221k. This pushed up the labor force participation rate and the employment-population ratio.
The initial reaction in the bond market was a 7 basis point spike in yields. A March rate cut is looking highly unlikely. The Employment Cost Index rose 0.7% on a quarterly basis and 3.4% YOY.
Dallas Fed President Laurie Logan said she is cautiously optimistic that if the labor market remains stable no further rate cuts are needed. “If so, this would tell me that our current policy stance is appropriate and no further rate cuts are needed to achieve our dual mandate goals,” Logan said in remarks prepared for delivery in Austin, Texas. If instead inflation falls but the labor market cools materially, “cutting rates again could become appropriate. But right now, I am more worried about inflation remaining stubbornly high.”
Mortgage applications fell 0.3% last week as purchases decreased 2% and refis rose 1%. “Mortgage applications were relatively flat over the week, but it was a mixed bag for the different loan types. The 30-year fixed rate was unchanged at 6.21 percent, and conventional applications declined for both purchases and refinances as borrowers held out for another drop in rates or shifted to other loan types,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “FHA purchase and refinance applications increased, helped partially by the FHA rate declining and remaining 20 basis points lower than the conforming 30-year fixed rate.”
Mortgage delinquencies declined 16 basis points last month, while foreclosure starts rose 54% (probably seasonality). Foreclosures are up 27% on a YOY basis, but still below pre-pandemic levels. Foreclosure activity is being driven primarily by FHA.
We are seeing refi activity pick up as mortgage rates move lower. If mortgage rates fall to 6.0%, 5.5 million borrowers are in the money for a refi. At 5.875% that number jumps to 6.5 million. We are on the cusp of a refi wave if rates cooperate.
Filed under: Economy |
All Things in Moderation 
Powerful testimony from Bondi yesterday.
https://x.com/saras76/status/2022113380749005183?s=46&t=vSGsUlnc4rLxcUf7zfUiHg
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Started reading this guy in addition to Doomberg on energy markets.
https://charliepgarcia.substack.com/p/10000-became-over-10-million-one
Anyone have an opinion on CNQ?
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Well, I’m convinced.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/rcna259573
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Good media BS check:
https://dennisonwrites.substack.com/p/the-guardians-immigration-problem
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Bro’s just taking artistic license.
https://x.com/LauraPowellEsq/status/2025982675262251387?s=20
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Mark – For you:
https://www.joneswalker.com/en/insights/blogs/ai-law-blog/your-ai-conversations-are-not-privileged-what-a-new-sdny-ruling-means-for-every.html
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“You arrogant ass, you killed us.”
https://archive.is/8rJLR
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Correct
Also correct
No, this is about more than Bondi. The public didn’t trust Biden or anyone else on this either. Trump ran on making the files public. It was only when he started to waffle that the Transparency Act ended up happening.
But the institutional failure and lack of public trust predates Trump. If anything, it helped drive his candidacy. And no, the public doesn’t trust “career subordinates” either.
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Good read:
https://hollymathnerd.substack.com/p/forrest-gump-with-better-hair
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Welp, not sure this is the best idea but here we are.
Godspeed, safety and success to American and allied forces.
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Trump’s approach is interesting in that he doesn’t care about democracy, human rights or nation building. It’s more like whack the #1 guy and see if the #2 plays ball now.
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This seems… overwrought.
https://x.com/TheFP/status/2028124615306821913?s=20
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Concur. The risks are not colossal.
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If only there was something that could done on the state level.
https://x.com/GovPressOffice/status/2027831842678968662?s=20
Pity, really.
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The NYT is self parody:
https://archive.ph/MVnbI
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They keep doing the Norm McDonald joke.
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Sweet Jeebus!
https://x.com/FT/status/2028797580230930693?s=20
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Still ambivalent about this war but I did find this funny.
https://x.com/workhostage/status/2028988505477509507?s=20
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I feel like about this like I did Iraq. If we do what is in our best interests and just don’t fuck things up make a huge mess … I mean if we actually improve things for us and normal Iranians I’m all for it. I just don’t know that we will.
That said I think we had a responsibility to kick out the Glorious Revolution and reinstall the shah or something back when the ayatollahs took over. We had a responsibility in making that possible, we should have fixed it. Then or under Reagan. Which is not why we are doing it I know.
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Ultimately, I don’t care if worse thugs take over, as long as they’re allied to us a la Venezuela.
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Well, that would be my 2nd choice. First choice would be “more like Dubai or the UAE . . . or maybe actually the UAE.” But self-serving criminals interested in their own wealth and power rather than ushering in the global caliphate . . . I’d be fine with that, too.
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I guess Fetterman really doesn’t give a fuck.
https://x.com/zeteo_news/status/2029339376313159817?s=20
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Yep, and the Democrats while claiming to represent the working class really don’t want to give them a voice over policies like this.
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He’s a serious liberal, a rarity in modern politics. He doesn’t have much love for illiberal theocratic regimes that murder their own people and oppress women brutally. Which you would think would be common among liberals but it isn’t.
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Another debunking:
https://dennisonwrites.substack.com/p/another-immigrant-horror-story-collapses
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My default position is all media reported illegal immigrant sob stories are bullshit.
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That is the correct position.
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Hi Keven,
Great to hear from you! Hope all is well!
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As well as it gets, I suppose. I had a retinal tear thing a little over a year ago and now, about 14/15 months later I still got annoying black floaters in that eye and that’s apparently gonna be the way it’s gonna be. Just finally went for a follow up on the eyeballs yesterday, and got a clean bill out of it. So there’s that. I need to make an appointment with a gastroenterologist to see if there’s anything to do regarding my very belchy digestion–basically, I eat much of anything, I’ve got an hour of belching, and sometimes if I drink a lot of water something sets me off. Not acidic. Meh. Age is a pain in the ass.
This week I’ve been mostly skipping the gym, will head back next week or week after and start back with resistance work, leaving out a few machines since I was routinely getting shoulder pain/arm pain and I think I’ve guessed what might have been causing it, or the most likely culprits. But it’s a pain.
Also trying to do real life old man jogging around the neighborhood. Not going as quite as often as I’d like but working on it.
Oh, and oldest daughter has just kind of collapsed as a person and will not launch, and plans to live with us, apparently, until we die, and probably remain unemployed. So we have to address that. Yay!
Youngest daughter is complete opposite, and is presently jet-setting (youth hostel style) around Europe while studying abroad in Copenhagen. It’s also a little irksome that the daughter that has clearly got my genetic personality is such a loser while the one that has my wife’s genetic personality is in the process of taking over the world. Oh, well!
Hope all is well with you and yours. Same goes for JNCP4 and Scott, whom’st I assumulate are around heres somewhere.
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That is an absolute bummer re your retinal tear, so sorry to hear about that! I’m 60 and have been lucky/blessed with relative good health despite the horrific things I have done to my body. I used to jog but ended up with plantar fasciitis that wouldn’t go away, so I gave it up. It’s cliche but true that as we age we start being concerned about taking care of ourselves. Ultimately I exercise, when I do, so that I can eat more without gaining weight as my metabolism apparently has not only stopped but gone in reverse and now can absorb fat through the atmosphere.
My wife’s son (my stepson) is a complete ne’er do well and has multiple criminal convictions. He’s a nice enough person but unwilling to live a non-criminal life, so consider yourself lucky that your daughter merely lacks ambition. Glad your youngest daughter is living a full life and sucking the marrow out of the bones, there is still time for your older daughter and I hold out hope for my stepson, redemption is possible regardless of age.
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My metabolism has never been great. I weighed 300 lbs in high school. Now I’m presently 205 and getting a core that would give me 6-pack abs, if not for the permaflab permanently over them. I’m hoping I can keep running, I was doing it as kind of “we’re planning to do a marathon in April–now November or something, we are rescheduling” and also that I ought to give it a try generally, and was like: oh, I really like this. Why haven’t I been doing this? I kind of forgot, maybe, my college running? Anyway, I have limited times I can run so if I eat too much the night before I’m gonna wake up with a food hangover and it ain’t happening. So need to keep my discipline.
I work out at the gym pretty regularly. Want to build strength and put on muscle, which I’m actually doing, but I’ve got to figure out which things strain other things too much. I’m thinking the butterfly press machine may be to blame for shoulder pain, possibly that and the shoulder press machine (where I have been pushing the weight) so I’m going to eliminate them for now. I’m going to be out through Wednesday next week so not sure how much I’m going to work out next week either (dont once this week) but will try to run Saturday morning.
But I feel ya on the metabolism. I’ve been below 205 many times but getting under 205 and towards 185, where I want to be, is almost impossible.
And I have to believe redemption is possible, but like I say, oldest daughter is functionally me. And my experience has been I have to redeem myself. So she would have to and so far I can’t see a flicker of what might inspire that. So it may come down to a lot of hard conversations.
Regarding non-criminal life–well, other than technically illegal cannibis consumption, which she has to not be doing for extended periods to successfully secure almost any job but can’t seem to do–we are lucky indeed. Her previous state was being more aggressively ready to launch and get out of our house and out from under the parental thumb . . . with some kind socipathic/future-criminal/or just kind of a loser boyfriend. After the last one of those relationships petered out she kind of gave up on life and is still living like it’s COVID and leaves mainly to buy crappy food she should not be eating. But I got one daughter grabbing life by the balls and squeezing it harder than either myself or my wife ever did, so we ought to be grateful for what we do have.
But I get where oldest daughter is, as it is my predisposition too. I am now in a constant state of struggling for redemption, and have been working at that off and on for most of my life but I didn’t ever have the option of holing up in my room, unemployed, so . . . I feel sorry for you and your wife. We don’t tend to have these kids thinking that’s where it will end up, and a lot of times it can cast a kind of pall on our elder years we were not expecting.
Eh! We do what we can. This time we’ll get through to them, for sure!
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At my peak I was 270. I started dieting and quit smoking and drinking and dropped to about 185. A few years and 25 lbs gained later is when I started working out and running a lot. Weight went down to about 170 and then back up to close to 190 due to the weight lifting and protein emphasis. My weight is a bit of a yo yo, I like to eat, but now at 60 I’m down to 168 and holding. What I’ve found is that if I keep my caloric intake below 1000 calories per day with a 33/33/33% balance of calories from protein, carbs and fat, respectively, I can keep the weight off without exercising, which I’ve never particularly enjoyed, except for the running I did in my late 40’s/early 50’s. I’m sure I’ll put weight on but I’m trying to stay lean as I’m between jobs right now and need to look trim and put together for interviews.
I’m lazy, personally, and some of the most happiest times of my life were where I could get drunk and high and spend my time bullshitting. I do still enjoy the bullshitting part however.
One final thing I’ll say is that at age of 60 I have a remarkably different view of human condition than I did at even 40 or 50. I mourn the loss of life of anybody more than I ever did as a younger person and I wonder how that happened.
At some point, you realize it’s really hard to “fix” people. I think parenting is designed to keep you invested in your family, and that’s obviously good, but it does make it much more difficult to be circumspect about your kids. You do what you can do and then fret over past mistakes.
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I had more to say to this but have been busy and tired, so I’ll just say sticking to 1k calories and 168 is fucking impressive. Good job. I know it’s hard to fix people. I’m just struggling with a way to fix the situation for me/us in a way that’s fixes it … which just kicking her out would not do as a practical matter even if it was ultimately better for her.
Also not only am I less sanguine about people dying (for me it’s most selfish, as anyone dying reminds me of my own mortality which I don’t like for some reason; when famous people I recognize, even if I haven’t thought about them for years, when I find out they are dead now I feel unhappy as if it was something done to me personally).
Anyway, trying to live a little life sort of. Took the Amtrak from Memphis to Chicago, am in Chicago now for the first time in 35 years. And while I did the train thing in Europe most of that was when I was 12 and the last time when I was 20; have never done it in America until now. It’s interesting. It’s interesting how large and bustling Union Station is in Chicago; what’s left of Central Station in Memphis is a dirty closet (and in fairness a hotel, as the original Central Station was turned into a hotel by Hilton). I learned a Roomette is very small and the upper bunk is hard on you if yours suffering shoulder pain of non-specific sourcing. But done and seent a lot just since I got here this morning. Getting a brief break from worrying about sick dogs and ne’er-do-well children. And I had coach seats for the return train ride but bid the lowest possible bid for a full Room instead and won the bid. So we will be going back in style, to the degree this is possible on an Amtrak train. Had breakfast on the train—potatoes and a pre-manufactured 3-cheese omelet that was meh and a sausage that was fucking delicious. One takes their wins where you can.
Also, my wife has so many dietary restrictions she can’t each any kind of crap food and already we’ve found gluten and soy free deep dish pizza, and fancy donuts she can eat. Another thing about being in big citizens. More cleaner versions of classic crap you really shouldn’t be eaten but it at least there’s no soy or gluten in it.
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I have never had a bad experience in Chicago, love the place! Last time I was there was June of 23 and stayed at a Marriott in Streetervilles, so definitely high end area. One night I walked towards Loyola Univeristy and the Catholic Church there, Holy Name Cathedral keeps its doors open so I walked around inside and was absolutely blown away by how beautiful it was, absolutely captivating! Around the corner from the Cathedral is a Raman shop, just a hole in the wall across from Loyola that had the best ramen I have ever had. On the walk home was a Stan’s donuts that had unbelievable good donuts! I went back both nights I was there. The only disappointment was this mega Starbuck’s, multi floor, restaurant, bean store. I had them brew me up a single Origen from Ethiopia that was like, $30 a pound and it tasted like every other Starbucks coffee I’ve had, bitter, burned and shitty.
Also, visited the Art Institute and find it to be just as impressive. It’s weird to me that Chicago is really an interesting city with a lot to offer but it’s so shittily run, whereas Houston is utterly uninteresting (unless you like petro-chemical manufacturing with great food choices) but really well run.
I’ll have to give the train a shot, for shit and giggles.
Would love to hear more about what your Chicago experiences are. In fairness, I loved the hell out of Memphis when I was there in 2020, hit every tourist spot possible and had a great time!
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Stayed at the Canopy Hilton near Willis Tower, ended up hitting the “food court” that is the main lobby of Willis tower several times. Sweet Greens and Donuts & Chicken place because very tasty gluten free donuts. Did The Balloon Museum which is a temporary interactive installation that we just happened to run across and that was cool as fuck. Finally got to play around in a ball pit and it was the biggest ball pit I’ve ever seen but that was just one of the exhibits. We did a portion of the Art Institute but it was crowded and wife got freaked out. So we left, which was fine with me. Hit a clean dessert place called Frera (cuz of dietary restrictions we plan a lot of vacation around where gluten free, dairy free, soy free stuff is) and it was great. Ate dinner the first night at Lou Malnatis Pizza, gluten free deep dish. Crust was disappointing but toppings were aces. We had coffee at our hotel and just hung out in the lobby for a while. That was relaxing—sometimes it’s the small things. And we hit the Money Museum, because it was there. Hit Millenium Park, saw The Bean, and hung out in The Metropolitan Lounge at Union Station, a perk of riding Amtrak. That again was unknown to me as a thing and I really enjoyed it; high contrast to Amtrak in Memphis which was a dirty, Hard-to-find tiny closet area basically hidden in the Central Station Hotel. The old Central Station which got converted to a hotel looks pretty fucking cool though; might want to stay there sometime.
But other than coffee in the hotel I think my favorite part about Chicago was walking around the loop area and Jackson and Michigan Ave and Dearborn and so on and then Ubering around and taking in the architecture. And The Balloon Museum which is a temporary thing we just happened to stumble across. Now—Copenhagen in 16 days. I ain’t been overseas since I went to London in my junior trip in 1990. So that is gonna be interesting!
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I will also say a room on Amtrak is sort of going back and style but also not. Still not a lot of room and having a private bathroom brings an odor with it. The novelty of it all is fun but hard to justify the expense of rooms and roomettes beyond that. Will usually be cheaper to buy a plane ticket and you will be there much faster. But it’s enjoyable to watch America pass by from a train car, so I get why people do it. Will probably do again but not likely to do a lot.
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How is it that Graham cannot see how horrible this sounds.
https://x.com/amconmag/status/2030660825627668680?s=12
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I feel like he doesn’t care? That it’s a legitimate motivation?
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