Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Arcanaut
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
Stocks are higher this morning as we await inflation data. Bonds and MBS are flattish.
The Personal Incomes and Outlays numbers for September were scheduled to be released this morning at 8:30. So far there is nothing on the BEA’s website. It may have been pushed back to later today.
Home Price appreciation continued to decelerate, according to Cotality. Prices rose 1.1% overall on a YOY basis, with declines extending from 6% of MSAs to 32% of MSAs. On a MOM basis, prices declined 0.2%
“The housing market in 2025 demonstrated remarkable resilience despite significant headwinds. Slowing price growth reflects a much-needed rebalancing after years of unsustainable gains. While some markets are experiencing declines, these adjustments will help restore affordability over time and make housing more accessible to a wider group of buyers,” said Cotality’s Chief Economist Dr. Selma Hepp.
“Looking ahead, regional differences will remain pronounced, with demand favoring areas that offer both economic opportunity and relative affordability. In general, home price growth is projected to remain below the long-running average of 4% to 5%. However, mortgage rates will play a critical role in shaping the 2026 housing market. A notable drop in mortgage rates combined with low supply could lead to a re-acceleration of price gains.”
The hip-to-be-square trade continues, with the biggest gain (9%) coming from the tony destination of Bridgeport, CT.
Investor purchase activity was muted in the third quarter, according to research from Redfin. Investor home purchases rose only 1% compared to a year ago. With flattening rents, this shouldn’t be a surprise. “Investor activity is stuck in neutral because profits are harder to come by, more homes are selling at a loss, and the rental market has softened,” said Sheharyar Bokhari, a senior economist at Redfin. “Investors aren’t completely retreating, but they’re not driving the housing market forward.”
The share of homes bought by investors slipped to 17%, which is still on the high side compared to pre-pandemic levels. High home prices, elevated mortgage rates and a sluggish rental market are conspiring to make income properties and fix / flip deals harder to pencil out.
Filed under: Economy |
All Things in Moderation 
Sigh, even if you don’t agree with Trump vis-a-vis drone strikes on drug smugglers, this is just plain wrong:
https://andrewsullivan.substack.com/p/the-military-as-a-murder-weapon
Those three things are not equivalent. Rules of Engagement in warfare aren’t the same as the requirements for self defense for civilians.
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I’m ambivalent about droning narco boats, but I’ll bite on the devil’s advocate thing. Smuggling narcotics exist because of demand, pretty simple market dynamics. I’ve used to be on the legalize it all side of the narcotics issue but the examples of marijuana legalization and the defacto legalization we see in some big cities for all drugs has caused me to do some rethinking on the issue. I think the permissive environment has created zombies and while being a zombie is certainly a choice, I have come to realize that the potency of narcotics have created costs that we as a society are having to bear. I’m talking both direct costs, medical care, EMT services, etc., as well as indirect cost due to crime to support drug dependency, welfare/medicaid costs because parents cannot support their kids and their habit, as well as the impact on mortality re overdose due to the potency of fentanyl and the costs to suddenly orphaned children and their ability to learn the skills to provide for themselves in later life. With all this in mind I’ve come to realize that the State has a role in trying to control/eliminate importation of these narcotics and society writ large would benefit if narcotic consumption was shamed much like cigarettes have been and are. You’re not going to eliminate narcotic use but you could reduce its desirability, especially with younger people. All that preface said, the costs to smuggle narcotics needs to be high, to drive up consumer cost which will drive down demand. The lethality of narcotics alone would justify some pretty strong intervention actions that I think warrant mortal action. In the long run, I think it will save lives as smugglers rethink their costs, which will slow down the volume of drugs coming in, resulting in higher prices which will put narcotics out of price range for more people.
Thoughts?
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Just because you allow drinking doesn’t mean that public intoxication has to be legal.
The problem is that all of the legalization initiatives also happen to be in West Coast states that allow, and I’d argue facilitate, public homelessness.
And none of that means that they have to drone strike the boats and not take prisoners. They can always interdict and stop them like they have previously.
This is a choice and it’s about sending a message.
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This is a choice and it’s about sending a message.
Yes, absolutely, so was executing Barbary pirates via letters of Marquis.
That said, if it reduces the influx of drugs, increases their prices and reduces that route of smuggling, it will save American lives.
The permission structure that leads to drug legalization is, in my opinion, inexorably linked to permissive homelessness/vagrancy. And don’t residents have a right not to be accosted by vagrants? Legalized alcohol has increased alcoholism and the social and medical costs associated with it. However, alcohol’s place in most societies is as old as primates, fentanyl is a more recent invention. As I mentioned in a previous comment, urban experience with drug legalization has changed my mind. I’m not married to droning drug boats nor do I find it beyond the pale either.
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Hi Brent,
You’re Tearsheet has frequently mentioned the disconnect between the expected effects of Trump’s Tariffs versus the actual effect, namely, their low(er) impact. Is the prevailing wisdom on tariffs wrong? Ultimately, I’m wondering why the accepted “known, known’s” regarding tariffs has not (yet?) happened?
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Revealing interview with Gavin Newsom.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/10/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-gavin-newsom.html
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I’m having a hard time squaring juicer’s circle here.
https://x.com/ezraklein/status/1999222362894663980?s=46&t=vSGsUlnc4rLxcUf7zfUiHg
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Newsome uses hundreds of words to say pretty much nothing of substance.
“You don’t need a sanctuary policy in this country if we have a federal government doing its job. In the absence of that, we’ll deal with the cards we are dealt.” This is incoherent nonsense, as if sanctuary policies are doing something that the federal government ought to be doing instead, when the precise purpose of sanctuary policies is to literally prevent the federal government from doing its job. And the fact that Klein lets this blatant absurdity roll past without comment is an indication of his own failures as a thinker/interviewer.
“Trump uses it as a cudgel, and he uses it very effectively to attack our party and our values, but I will stand up to it.” What “it” is he even talking about?
Explaining why the Dems failed on border policy, he says “Everything is a reaction to Trump.” Huh?
“You had all of the shock, and the shock to supply chains, and the issues around Covid, coming out of covid that created even more pressure, and then it became overwhelming.” What in the world does this have to do with Biden’s open border policies? He sounds like Kamala Harris’s word salad. Is it something in the water out there in CA?
“And what also became overwhelming was this notion that we can’t do it without Congress.” This notion became “overwhelming”? What does that even mean?
“And Biden then proved Trump right, by doing it without congress in the last 6 months.” So it is Trump’s fault, even though he was right. Got it.
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I am having a hard time understanding why anybody would take issue with what Susie Wyles has said. What is to disagree with?
https://www.mediaite.com/media/news/10-wildest-revelations-from-vanity-fairs-earth-shattering-susie-wiles-story/
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True love is often bullshit. True like is a much better way to settle on a mate. Why do we lie to girls so much?
https://x.com/geniustechw/status/2000082826566262808?s=46&t=vSGsUlnc4rLxcUf7zfUiHg
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She keeps saying “everyone is telling me I’m wrong.”
Reminds me of the old saying: If one person calls you an ass you can ignore it. If ten people call you an ass, buy a saddle.”
She is good looking, so she should be able to find a guy in six nanoseconds on her looks alone. That said, she is clearly insufferable, and she is probably chasing 10s who aren’t going to put up with her shit.
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Intentional, public emoting, even for women, is really just performative. She’s an attention whore and something about her personality literally turns most men she would be interested in, off.
Pure speculation from me, a pretty private person, who doesn’t get women’s need to “share”.
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I have intentionally not pursued women who I knew were interested in me due to their past behavior of posting about their ex’s and relationship breakdowns on social media.
Between that and divorce laws on property distribution, I’d argue it’s guys who have more at risk these days.
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I firmly believe that marriage is, essentially, a losing proposition for men.
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I told my son about the million dollar coin flip.
Half of US marriages end up in divorce and women initiate 80% of them. If you make 100k you are out 50k a year for 20 years. A million bucks.
Heads you are no better off than you were before, tails you are out a million bucks.
The #1 reason why women leave men is a lay-off. The odds are you are going to get laid off in your career.
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Hell, I’m laid off right now!
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Marriage was invented for the raising of children. If you are going to have kids, you should get married. If you are not going to have kids, there is no reason to get married, and a gazillion reasons not to.
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On a different note: Brent, do you think Stablecoins, by reason of their reach outside the USA, increase the likelihood that the dollar remains the reserve currency?
I think that should be a good thing, but there is the obvious problem that if we assure the dollar as the reserve currency then no Administration will ever worry about deficit spending, as Stablecoins are there to absorb short term Treasuries.
Not that I think any Admin in a long time has worried about deficits.
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Hey Mark, hope you are doing well.
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Enjoying retirement so much that I wonder why I didn’t do it when I was 40.
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The appeal of stablecoins (as was gold) is that it is one of the few assets that isn’t someone else’s liability.
The problem with making it a reserve currency is that the global central banks will have to agree to allow crypto to be considered Tier 1 capital for the banking system. And it isn’t in their best interest to do so.
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I pretty much agree with all of this. I hope he wins the governorship of Ohio and then runs for president.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/17/opinion/republican-identity-divide.html
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Good read:
https://www.compactmag.com/article/the-lost-generation/
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The left depends a lot on Millennial Men staying on the reservation and swallowing the gynocentric narrative.
God help the democrats if they become redpilled. They are going to be pissed.
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The level of fraud being uncovered is mind-boggling. Below is $1 billion.
https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/healthcare-information-technology/telehealth/arizona-man-sentenced-to-15-years-for-1b-telemedicine-fraud-scheme/?origin=BHRE&utm_source=BHRE&utm_medium=email&utm_content=newsletter
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Merry Christmas everyone. Hope you all are doing well.
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Merry Christmas Scott, Merry Christmas all, including LuLu, if you’re lurking!!
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Happy Hanukkah, Merry Christmas, and a happy New Year to everyone.
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