Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Arcanaut
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
Stocks are flattish this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are down.
Why has the bond market sold off in the wake of the rate cut on Wednesday? IMO, it is because the dot plot for 2026 is much more hawkish than the Fed Funds futures were predicting.
Before the FOMC meeting, the December 2026 futures saw a range of 2.75%-3.0% rate as the most likely, 3.0% – 3.25% as the second most likely and 2.5%-2.75% as the third most likely. Today, the futures see 3.0% – 3.25% as the most likely scenario, 2.75%-3.0% as the second most likely scenario, and 3.25% – 3.5% as the third most likely scenario.
In essence the Fed Funds futures have increased their 2026 forecast by roughly 25 basis points, and that is what is driving the action in the 10 year.
The Index of Leading Economic Indicators declined in August, according to the Conference Board. The index declined by 0.5%, after rising 0.1% in July. The only positives in the index are market-related (i.e. credit spreads and the movement in the stock market). All other components (anything real-economy related) were negative. These include initial jobless claims, building permits, and new orders.
“In August, the US LEI registered its largest monthly decline since April 2025, signaling more headwinds ahead,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “Among its components, only stock prices and the Leading Credit Index supported the LEI in August and over the past six months. Meanwhile, the contribution of the yield spread turned slightly negative for the first time since April.
“Besides persistently weak manufacturing new orders and consumer expectation indicators, labor market developments also weighed on the Index with an increase in unemployment claims and a decline in average weekly hours in manufacturing. Overall, the LEI suggests that economic activity will continue to slow. A major driver of this slowdown has been higher tariffs, which already trimmed growth in H1 2025 and will continue to be a drag on GDP growth in the second half of this year and in H1 2026. The Conference Board, while not forecasting recession currently, expects GDP to grow by only 1.6% in 2025, a substantial slowdown from 2.8% in 2024.”
In other words, the only thing holding up the economy is the stock market, and the stock market cannot ignore the real economy forever.
Homebuilder Lennar disappointed this morning with soggy third quarter earnings. Earnings fell over 50% compared to a year ago.
“Our third quarter results reflect both the continued pressures of today’s housing market and the consistency of Lennar’s operating strategy. This quarter, we delivered 21,584 homes and recorded 23,004 new orders. Achieving these results required additional incentives, resulting in a reduced average sales price of $383,000, and our gross margin drifted down to 17.5%, while our SG&A expenses came in at 8.2%, reflecting the soft market conditions.”
“requiring additional incentives” is corporate-speak for cutting prices to move the merchandise. Builders have generally been doing this via cut-rate mortgages.
Note famed value investor Warren Buffett bought a big slug of Lennar this year.
Filed under: Economy |
All Things in Moderation 
Omar and AOC’s actions re Charlie Kirk assassination are hard to understand. They never lack for media attention, especially for AOC and if they’re attempting to gaslight some nut on the right to assasinate a lefty, they are two of the most likeliest targets, and I do not think they’re suicidal.
My guess is that their political instinct, that has gotten them to they point they are, is to counter, as hyperbolically as possible, any current narrative that could reasonably construed as right wing and they are unable to govern it despite their very high media profile.
The reason I think it’s dangerous for them is that I do not believe there has ever been a successful, peaceful exit from spiraling political violence and I’m guessing they do not fully realize how much risk they have.
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Re this thing with Homan.
Has this ever been done before, where the FBI sets up an entrapment bust for a senior official in the same party as the President?
I mean, this seems like the FBI deciding during the Obama Admin to set a trap of Alejandro Mayorkas.
I wonder if Bondi approved it or the FBI was acting without notifying anyone in the Admin.
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Thought this occurred before inauguration.
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So it was the Biden Admin trying to entrap him. Makes more sense.
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You are correct.
Also, not sure if Bob Menendez would be a good counter example.
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https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/20/us/politics/tom-homan-fbi-trump.html
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After reading the full piece, if they had written him a check for the $50,000 instead of putting it in a bag as cash, it could have easily been explained as a consulting fee as apparently he was acting as a lobbyist at the time.
My question would be whether or not he reported it as income.
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My perception is that he has done so or he would have been indicted before the inauguration. I think this story stinks to high heaven.
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You cannot trust the press at all. The media is a rogue entity engaged in propaganda and censorship. They don’t check facts, they do not investigate, and they most certainly feel no obligation to serve the public or—God forbid—report the news.
The FBI is no more trustworthy. Anybody who takes stories like these at face value is blind, IMO.
Not saying there was no shenanigans going on, but likely it was something different than being portrayed. To the point of making the reporting on it fiction.
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This apparently resulted from someone else trying to make a deal.
The problem is paying someone to help secure lucrative federal contracts is pretty much the definition of a lobbyist and the current legal influence pedaling that goes on in DC.
As noted, Homan wasn’t in government at the time so he would have had to do something else to make this illegal.
The FBI loves the cash in a bag optics to trot out a trial later on.
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Popehat on this:
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“In other words, the only thing holding up the economy is the stock market, and the stock market cannot ignore the real economy forever.”
But do you think the rate cuts will hold it up for another 6 – 18 months?
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Just watched this….a very clear thinking woman.
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I love that line: “How can you talk about rules and evidence, can’t you see she is crying?”
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Entertaining read:
https://hollymathnerd.substack.com/p/107-excuses-evasions-and-pathologies
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That was good
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Well played, lefty!
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I believe that the left has no understanding of the Right, but I do not believe the right has no understanding of the Left. The Right has been steeped in Leftism, culture et al due to their control of entertainment, media and government.
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Reminds me of the quip that every NYT story about understanding flyover country reads like a “Gorillas in the Mist” piece.
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To wit:
https://x.com/redsteeze/status/1970917923213672635?s=46&t=vSGsUlnc4rLxcUf7zfUiHg
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The Vox piece referenced is the one I linked below.
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Very telling about the article’s author, “However, to conservatives, he was something very different: not just an effective political organizer but a living symbol of democratic politics done the right way.
I must admit that this second perspective doesn’t come naturally to me.”
Debate and organizing doesn’t come naturally to Beauchamp? Or thinking the Charlie Kirk was engaged in those activities? IF he wasn’t doing it the “right way”, WTF is the right way?
I know this is shitty to write but Beauchamp has a bit of checkered history, there is the Gaza bridge issue,
https://freebeacon.com/campus/upenn-taps-voxs-zack-beauchamp-best-known-for-inventing-a-bridge-between-gaza-and-the-west-bank-as-a-distinguished-global-affairs-fellow/
There is another issue for which I cannot currently find links. He served in the military in Afghanistan, kudos to him, really. However when he came back he wrote supposed true stories about his experience in which he completely shit all over his platoonmates while making himself look psychotic. I think he did it because he’s a committed leftist and wanted to create some sort of weird Vietnam like no rules atmosphere for his experiences and instead came off as really mean and psycho. I tend to look at him with a jaded perspective, much like Andrew Sullivan’s very, very weird obsession with who birthed Trig Palin has made it very difficult for me to take him seriously or even in good faith.
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More Beauchamp,
In this, he stood against MAGA’s most radical anti-democratic voices.
who on the right is radically anti-democratic? Curtis Yarvin? Who on the right shares his benign monarchy thinking?
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I know I’m being hypercritical here and to give the piece it’s due, I find it somewhat insightful despite such bizarrely obtuse questions as this,
One thing that’s also struck me in the responses and the way that these figures talk about Kirk’s death is the omnipresence of the word “they. It’s “they” killed Charlie, “they” took Charlie from us, even though there’s no evidence that the shooter was in any kind of conspiracy.
So what do people on the right mean by “they?”
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I always say The Left and leave it at that
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Hey, I resemble this remark!
or they were just assholes who like to be disagreeable
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Once again, a completely blind and siloed perspective from Beauchamp. It’s exhausting.
That’s where I wanted to bring us to at the end: how both sides should feel about their enemies.
I have this fear, given Kirk’s personal significance, that the right’s authoritarian reaction to his death is not going to be a short-lived thing — you may disagree. But if Charlie Kirk was trying to create a politics where people who disagree could engage, the aftermath of his death is destroying that possibility. It’s making it very, very, very difficult for people across partisan lines to view each other with anything but mistrust and suspicion.
So what are we supposed to do about that?
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Did you read the piece by the person Beauchamp was interviewing? I linked it below. The main anti-Kirk person on the right wasn’t Curtis Yarvin but rather Nick Fuentes.
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Yes, I did after I commented on Beauchamp’s piece. The thing is I never view the neo-nazi, or nazi favoring people as “right”. I’m probably the only one but I do not see how using the power of government to enact anti-jewish, black or catholic actions is “right”. Using the power of government to perfect man is an entirely leftist endeavor. Plus, I just don’t think Fuentes has all that much influence, he’s more elevated because the left promotes him.
Also, a lot of what the dude wrote is good but right now the perspective on Charlie Kirk and his influence is very outsized due to his assassination. He’s a unicorn and important, no doubt, but he picked up and ran with the baton that started, in my opinion, with Goldwater, worked through Reagan, was set back by the Bush’s and then resurrected first by Breitbart then by Trump via Steve Bannon. There is a line of influencers and there will be more. I actually think though the Kirk’s murder will be (and already is) far more galvanizing than the loss of Breitbart ever was, just due to the violent nature of his death.
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McWing:
The thing is I never view the neo-nazi, or nazi favoring people as “right”. I’m probably the only one…
You are not the only one.
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I found it useful because I thought Kirk just did debates on college campuses to get video views (what the author referred to as the New Yorker take) and I didn’t realize the extent of his involvement in political organizing and building networks.
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I knew he had influence but did not realize the extent until after he was murdered.
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This is one of the best pieces I’ve seen explaining the significance of Charlie Kirk.
https://scholars-stage.org/bullets-and-ballots-the-legacy-of-charlie-kirk/
Vox had enough sense to interview the author:
https://www.vox.com/on-the-right-newsletter/462695/charlie-kirk-george-floyd-trump-kimmel
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Kind of an interesting question.
https://x.com/oilfield_rando/status/1971019245430710607?s=46&t=vSGsUlnc4rLxcUf7zfUiHg
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Good piece:
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/25/opinion/trump-academia-victim-may-mailman.html
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I’m still laughing over this.
https://x.com/acyn/status/1971239367172817119?s=46&t=vSGsUlnc4rLxcUf7zfUiHg
Trump will say what no one else will.
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What is the Democrat strategy re a shutdown? I do not see how they have any leverage but I might be in a bubble. My only thinking is that if they keep it shut down through the election in November then they’ll be sure to win Virginia. Seems thin, because they are on track to do that already.
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One thing that’s amusing about Virginia is Harris says in her campaign book that she ruled out Pete Buttigieg as a vice presidential choice because she didn’t think the country was ready for a black woman and a gay man on the same ticket.
The Virginia Republican party nominated a black woman and a gay man for governor and lieutenant governor respectively for this election.
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That’s funny and fascinating. The problem with Republican’s running on Identity Politics is that it doesn’t work for them. No lefty will vote for a Republican, regardless on their claimed Identity. To my knowledge, Republican’s have never won an election that way.
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Yes. The thing is they aren’t running on it. It’s just something to note but they are campaigning like it’s irrelevant.
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Hunh.
https://x.com/brendannyhan/status/1971359625447604382?s=46&t=vSGsUlnc4rLxcUf7zfUiHg
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Lol
Why it matters: Trump is systematically directing the DOJ to target political enemies, shattering long-standing norms of prosecutorial independence as he builds off this week’s indictment of ex-FBI Director James Comey.
https://archive.is/1T9y6#selection-565.0-571.1
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Just because the left memory-holed everything pre November 2024 doesn’t mean everyone else has too.
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I didn’t think the old, “women and minorities hit hardest” trope could be beat
https://x.com/nymag/status/1971531045934907630?s=46&t=vSGsUlnc4rLxcUf7zfUiHg
And yet you’ve lept past it!
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Apparantly, the left thinks that Comey will reveal a bunch of Russia/Trump collusion stuff that Muellar held back.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2025/9/26/2345578/-Raskin-says-Comey-indictment-shows-Trump-DOJ-in-full-cover-up-mode?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_5&pm_medium=web#comment_91996661
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National Review on the Comey indictment
https://www.nationalreview.com/2025/09/the-deeply-flawed-comey-indictment/
https://www.nationalreview.com/2025/09/the-indictment-against-comey-should-be-dismissed/
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I’m guessing at least one piece written my Andrew McCarthy, who ends up admitting being wrong 2 to 3 years after he writes anything about Donald Trump. I have a hard time w/NR as they’re exhaustingly and predictingly, anti-Trump. Not sure who their constituency is anymore since most of the never-Trumpers decamped to The Bulwark two years ago.
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jnc:
National Review on the Comey indictment
McCarthy may end up being correct, but he is a personal friend to both Comey and Comey’s leaker from Columbia. He can’t possibly be objective on this. He should sit this one out.
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If this proves to be true, this is absolutely batshit crazy.
https://www.kcci.com/article/ian-roberts-des-moines-schools-superintendent-detained-by-ice/68080086
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It is apparently, and it turns out that the head of the school board that hired him is the former chief of staff to Michelle Obama when she was first lady. And is now running for a United States Senate seat in Iowa.
This was a funny piece on it:
https://chrisbray.substack.com/p/feelz-leadership-gold-medal-edition
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Yes Neera, it used to be the character of Republican political leaders was such that they’d meekly roll over for you.
https://x.com/neeratanden/status/1971460111294992520?s=46&t=vSGsUlnc4rLxcUf7zfUiHg
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Would love an opinion on this from our resident UK hands.
https://x.com/picturesfoider/status/1971880120668270679?s=46&t=vSGsUlnc4rLxcUf7zfUiHg
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McWing:
Would love an opinion on this from our resident UK hands.
It depends on what you mean by “British food”.
If you mean types of dishes that the Brits invented, I am not a fan. Meat pie, bubble and squeak, bangers and mash…all traditional pub food that I would never get. I do like fish and chips, perhaps the most famous British food, but they always ruin in by serving it with a side of “mushy peas”, which is gross. They also ruin breakfast by putting beans on toast. WTF?
However, if you mean the most popular dish in Britain, so popular it is often called the national dish, then you are talking about chicken curry, which is actually really good. And you can find it pretty much everywhere. Every pub crawl ends by stopping for a curry.
Finally, if you mean just food in general prepared in the UK, they used to be really bad at it, but have gotten much better. For example, when I was there in the early 2000s, it used to be impossible to find a decent hamburger in the UK. All the pubs made them, but really badly. But when I went back in 2018, they were pretty good.
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Reminds me of the old quip:
Heaven is where the police are British, the cooks are French, the mechanics are German, the women are Italian, and everything is organized by the Swiss.
Hell is where the cooks are British, the mechanics are French, the police are German, the women are Swiss, and everything is organized by the Italians.
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lol! Nightmare fuel!
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Ezra is about to get kicked out of the progressive side for advocating talking to the enemy.
It’s crazy how they are all willing to die on the hill of transgenderism.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/28/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-ta-nehisi-coates.html
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I just listened to a clip of Ezra’s interview with Coates, during which, speaking of Charlie Kirk, Coates says…”But if you axe me what the truth of his life was…”
I’m sorry, but any pretensions towards being a public intellectual are demolished when he says “axe” instead of “ask”. I can’t take him seriously, and not just because he is a stone cold racist of the worst sort.
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You aren’t conflating him with Kendi are you?
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No, I know the difference, although maybe calling him a racist is a little harsh. How about race grifter? Either way, it remains inexplicable that a guy who says “axe” instead of “ask” is renowned as a great wordsmith.
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Given that he grew up in a pretty rough neighborhood in Baltimore before moving past it, I’m inclined to believe that it was a slip back into how he spoke growing up rather than an attempt to fake a street vernacular.
Coates is already authentic in that regard, he doesn’t need to fake it.
I found this to be a interesting critique of his discussion with Klein. I think it gets to the point you are making.
https://www.theradicalist.com/p/ta-nehisi-coates-is-harnessing-hate
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I suspect that funneling through his black lens is purposeful, as in, he actively cultivated it as a response to…
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jnc:
I’m inclined to believe that it was a slip back into how he spoke growing up rather than an attempt to fake a street vernacular.
I definitely don’t think he’s faking it.
And despite the author’s throwaway compliment to Coates as being “very smart and very thoughtful” before he goes on to eviscerate him, a person who is incapable of thinking outside the parameters of woke racialism, and who honestly believes that Charlie Kirk was a “hate monger”, is plainly neither.
If Ta-Nehesi Coates was not a black man obsessing about race and talking about the evils of white people, no one would give him a second look as a public intellectual. A guy like Coleman Hughes is infinitely smarter and more thoughtful than Coates. But because he holds heterodox views, he gets far less attention.
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No. Please don’t.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/sep/28/us-mass-resignation-federal-workers
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I’m fascinated how much energy some on the left are putting into the Epstein Files, reminds me of the Anon crowd prior to Trump’s election in 2024. I do not think it moved the needle on the right considering how the story has been dropped on the right, and I’m not sure it will have an impact in motivating the left re voting as they do not need another reason to hate Trump.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2025/9/30/2345977/-10-Things-the-Felon-Has-Done-to-Hide-the-Epstein-Files?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web
I would love to know why the Fed AG in Florida cut such a sweetheart deal for Epstein, I suspect there was exchanges of info regarding knowledge Epstein had of some financiers along with some foreign government intervention. That said, Trump’s administration did charge and jail him, and yes, he did die on Trump’s watch. That said, if there was dirt that Epstein had on Trump it would have come out by now is my thinking so the left’s embrace is just self soothing as far as I can tell.
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The left impeached Trump twice, leaked his tax returns, tried to bankrupt him over an appraisal dispute, imprison him over a misdemeanor and tried to kill him. Twice.
The idea that they had information implicating him with Epstein and sat on it is utter nonsense
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I agree, the left however, thinks there are mountains of evidence of guilt (of something) that the Biden administration kept suppressed. That, to me, sounds irrational but that is the current situation with the activist base of the Democratic party.
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Best reporting on Epstein was the woman who broke the story for the Miami Hearld, although she’s become part of the story at this point.
Michael Tracey on Substack has run down a bunch of the wilder claims about Epstein found most of them are bogus.
One example:
https://www.mtracey.net/p/the-insane-multitude-of-misconceptions
One of the more amusing pieces I’ve seen from the left claimed that Eyes Wide Shut was about Epstein and that’s why director Stanley Kubrick died suddenly after it was released.
https://artistlike.substack.com/p/listen-to-epstein-victims-then-watch
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How much of the conspiracy stuff originated on the right? I suspect most of it is poached. What has been fascinating to me is how little impact the lack of disclosure has had on the right. It really was just a scandal of convenience.
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Oh yeah, it all started on the right But it fits better as part of the whole #metoo movement.
The truth of it has been out there ever since the New York Magazine 2002 article. But people didn’t care then.
https://nymag.com/nymetro/news/people/n_7912/
Trump kicked him out of Mar-A-Largo before he was charged the first time, so the Trump angle never really worked.
https://www.politifact.com/article/2025/jul/31/what-we-know-about-the-trump-epstein-falling-outow/
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Taibbi testified before the Senate today:
https://www.racket.news/p/my-senate-testimony-on-surveillance
And turns out three Republican Members of Congress were also being monitored:
https://www.racket.news/p/not-only-tulsi-three-members-of-congress
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Son, if she’s not good enough for her own family, how can she be good enough for ours?
https://redstate.com/mike_miller/2025/09/30/britains-national-health-service-disgustingly-urges-first-cousin-marriage-any-guesses-n2194562
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Interesting that this is viewed as an issue that falls within the purview of the NHS.
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Guess who staffs the NHS?
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This is heartening to hear.
<b>His specific directions about basic training, “To that point, basic training is being restored to what it should be. Scary, tough, and disciplined. We’re empowering drill sergeants to instill healthy fear in new recruits, ensuring that future war fighters are forged. Yes, they can shark attack. They can toss bunks. They can swear. And yes, they can put their hands on recruits. This does not mean they can be reckless or violate the law, but they can use tried and true methods to motivate new recruits to make them the warriors they need to be.” See Pete Hegseth to Lift Ban on Powerful Basic Training Tactic – RedStatefor the genesis of this policy.</b>
https://redstate.com/streiff/2025/09/30/hegseth-speech-n2194578
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