All Things in Moderation

Morning Report: Housing starts increase

Vital Statistics:

Stocks are higher as earnings continue to come in. Bonds and MBS are up.

Housing starts increased to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 1.32 million, which was above the consensus estimate. This was a 4.5% increase from May, however it was a 0.5% decline from a year ago. Building Permits rose 0.2% MOM to 1.39 million, however this was a 4.4% decrease from a year ago.

Housing completions fell markedly – decreasing 14.7% MOM and 24.1% YOY to 1.31 million.

Multifamily starts jumped 26% YOY, while single family starts fell 10%. Builders had prioritized multifamily for years, and this trend had been reversing in the past year. It looks like June was a lurch back to the post-COVID trend of more multi construction.

CRE investors had been waiting for a pullback in multifamily performance (we had a deluge of supply post-pandemic), but performance has held up. Perhaps more investment dollars are flowing back into the multi space.

Builder confidence improved in July, according to the NAHB. We are still plumbing the depths we saw in the post-COVD era however. Builders are going to be impacted by tariffs, although the cost is expected to be in the 1% – 2% range.

Affordability constraints prevent them from being able to pass these on to buyers, so we are seeing gross margins fall.

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11 Responses

1. 

   Let the mutherfuker burn!, on July 19, 2025 at 10:18 am said:

   I’m sorry, I thought this was America.

   https://www.yahoo.com/news/florida-man-arrested-dui-lawn-174134039.html

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2. 

   Let the mutherfuker burn!, on July 19, 2025 at 12:54 pm said:

   The fascinating CT that gets mentioned in the comments, that the billionaire’s got their tax cut and now don’t need Trump and so are destroying him, is the best! These are the same billionaires we’re told don’t pay any taxes anyway, so…

   https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2025/7/18/2334116/-Trump-sues-Wall-Street-Journal-and-media-mogul-Rupert-Murdoch-over-reporting-on-Epstein-ties?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_7&pm_medium=web#comment_91637303

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3. 

   Let the mutherfuker burn!, on July 21, 2025 at 11:59 am said:

   Lol! Now it can be told.

   https://redstate.com/bonchie/2025/07/21/after-years-of-denials-the-press-finally-admit-the-truth-about-illegal-immigration-and-healthcare-n2191895

   Rep Joe Walsh was right at Obama’s ACC SOTU when he shouted “You lie!”

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4. 

   jnc4p, on July 22, 2025 at 2:57 pm said:

   Not a fan of his platform, but I do respect his sense of humor:

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   • 

     Let the mutherfuker burn!, on July 22, 2025 at 4:16 pm said:

     It is funny and well produced. He comes off as likable.

     Course, Che Guevara was likable.

     So was Lenin.

     Beria was an asshole though.

     So was Trotsky.

     But charming or no, commies will put you against the wall and smugly pull the trigger.

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   • 

     jnc4p, on July 23, 2025 at 12:46 pm said:

     This one is even better. A socialist who can recognize how city permitting requirements can become rent seeking which then translates into higher prices:

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     • 

       ScottC, on July 25, 2025 at 9:53 am said:

       And yet he’s still a socialist (or worse). There is a disconnect somewhere.

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       • 

         jnc4p, on July 25, 2025 at 11:15 am said:

         Yes it’s the exact opposite of his approach to rising grocery prices, which is to have city owned grocery stores.

         If he was consistent, he’d be attacking “Big Halal” for raising prices due to corporate greed and proposing city run Halal Trucks.

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   • 

     jnc4p, on July 23, 2025 at 12:53 pm said:

     This is an interesting point on how Gen Z views socialism:

     Mr. Mamdani is a clever self-marketer and has never come off as a scold. He could be telling New Yorkers: Let’s save money by forgoing all the brand name products, like Baleine sea salt from France and Snyder’s pretzel sticks, both in the background of his TikTok video. Or he could make videos on cooking whole chickens to save money and eat healthfully.

     But he wants to give New Yorkers capitalist consumer-brand choice at socialist prices. Mr. Mamdani’s brand of socialism is not collective, cooperative sacrifice but individualist, no-cost, no-tradeoff socialism.

     https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/23/opinion/mamdani-grocery-stores-nyc.html

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5. 

   jnc4p, on July 23, 2025 at 9:31 am said:

   Good read:

   “Zero-sum Thinking and the Labor Market

   is college worth it? and other questions about the state of things

   kyla scanlon

   Jul 23, 2025

   …

   In the 1990s, the top employer in each state was manufacturing. In 2024, it’s healthcare. That’s a different economy.”

   https://kyla.substack.com/p/zero-sum-thinking-and-the-labor-market

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   • 

     Let the mutherfuker burn!, on July 23, 2025 at 10:13 am said:

     I tell anybody who will listen, male or female, pursue a trade/appreticeship before college, get licensed in the trade and then think about college as you actually make money. When thinking about college, I honestly cannot think of a reason to go anywhere but the cheapest, accredited community college you can find that will give you a basic, quick, Liberal Arts degree. No more than $20k in debt with a degree. Ideally, no debt. A degree is a box check since employers cannot do IQ tests anymore, why borrow to much?

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