Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Arcanaut
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
The manufacturing sector returned to contraction in March, according to the ISM Manufacturing Survey. “In March, U.S. manufacturing activity slipped into contraction after expanding only marginally in February. The expansion in both February and January followed 26 consecutive months of contraction. Demand and output weakened while input strengthened further, a negative for economic growth. Indications that demand weakened include: the (1) New Orders Index falling further into contraction territory, (2) New Export Orders Index dropping into contraction, (3) Backlog of Orders Index contracting at a faster rate, and (4) Customers’ Inventories Index remaining in ‘too low’ territory.
“Demand and production retreated and destaffing continued, as panelists’ companies responded to demand confusion. Prices growth accelerated due to tariffs, causing new order placement backlogs, supplier delivery slowdowns and manufacturing inventory growth. Forty-six percent of manufacturing gross domestic product (GDP) contracted in March, up from 24 percent in February. “
Needless to say, tariff uncertainty is causing manufacturers to be more cautious.
Job openings fell to 7.6 million in February, according to the JOLTs job openings report. Openings fell across the board on a YOY basis, although we did see construction openings increase. The quits rate was flat at 2.0%.
Construction job openings are at a 3 year low as homebuilders battle affordability issues. While tariffs aren’t necessarily helping, the driver of affordability has been the rapid rise of real estate prices driven by expansionary fiscal and monetary policy during the COVID era and higher mortgage rates. The layoff rate in construction remained extremely low at 1.8%.
New York and San Francisco are seeing increased demand for real estate, according to research from Redfin. 57% of homes in San Francisco sold over asking, and Nassau County saw a similar percentage. “The Bay Area has an unending population of people with enormous swaths of money,” said Josh Felder, a Redfin Premier real estate agent in the Bay Area. “A decade or so ago, we all thought the growth in home prices was unsustainable, but they just keep going up and up. That’s partly because there aren’t enough homes for sale, and partly because tech continues to boom despite ups and downs in the stock market and geopolitical uncertainty.”
Southern California (particularly San Diego) is seeing more homes sell below listing.
Filed under: Economy |
All Things in Moderation 
Good read:
https://hollymathnerd.substack.com/p/by-reader-requests
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Perhaps Congress will reconsider giving the President the power to unilaterally impose tariffs in the name of “national security”, but I doubt it.
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Well, not right now. Although they should.
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I rarely agree with the Washington Post editorial page anymore, but this is what should happen:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/04/04/trump-tariffs-senate-emergency-powers/
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Agreed.
Meanwhile, using the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act rather than his temporary emergency authority probably violates recent SCOTUS precedent. I assume some businesses will sue, but it would take years to get to SCOTUS again. Maybe a state could have standing for a faster result but I have no clue how.
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It should happen. Not to assuage the markets but to prevent presidents from having this much executive power. While they are at it they should also constrain district judges’ ability to provide nationwide injunctive relief.
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Taibbi just filed a $10mm lawsuit against a member of congress for labelling him a “serial sexual harrasser”, not only on the floor of the House, from which she is protected, but also on X.
https://www.racket.news/p/a-response-to-a-member-of-congress
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I hope he wins. That’s some globalist elitist bullshit power play if ever I’ve seen one.
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They are also going after Russell Brand.
https://apnews.com/article/uk-russell-brand-charges-police-778978fa21ab6c04eb8c953e2bd7c688
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Interesting observation: Lumber futures, steel futures have made zero reaction to tariffs. You would think they would increase in value, but no.
So stock market tanks, bonds rally, F/X does nothing, and commodities do nothing.
Interesting.
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Does that mean investors don’t see Tariff’s lasting a long time? Or do they think, particularly w/ Wood and metals that it is easy to ramp up domestic production to cover the difference.
Finally, to those thinking that factory jobs are a “sentence”, I suppose they are, but then so is service work which, as a rule, doesn’t pay nearly as well.
From a regulatory standpoint, you need fundamental environmental deregulation to recapture heavy manufactuing, I suspect that Trump will attempt that and Red states could really reap the benefits.
Largest economic shift attempt since NAFTA? Or maybe even the 1st oil shock in what, ‘73?
Absolutley fascinating realignment.
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I am not sure what that data is telling us. The only negative I see is Jim Cramer calling a bottom in the stock market
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But yeah, I see this as a pushback on globalism, especially trade and climate agendas.
Klaus Schwab, who IMO looks like the villain in Lethal Weapon II, is becoming irrelevant.
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I have never understood Schwab’s attraction, as in, why people find him compelling. I suppose it’s rich people enjoying being told they’re handsome/pretty and really smart and should run the world – the Epstein strategy. That said, I’m sure Davos is nice and the hookers top notch.
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brent, globalism will continue without us, right?
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Wouldn’t that be dependent on the United States keeping Ocean shipping lanes open?
Along with the belief that the US no longer wishes to ship goods overseas. If the US desires to export products, has it withdrawn from global trade?
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Globalism will continue with us. Trump means to “reset the table”. He says it. Likely with some form of light tariff that can be raised at any time and agreements to open markets. But I also expect the EU to get the message that fining US companies hundreds of billions of dollars for bullshit violations of bullshit EU regulations with result in US markets slamming shut to their goods, in the form of suddenly huge tariffs on products being assessed when they arrive in port that weren’t expected when the products were ordered. The EU has been fucking around and now they are finding out.
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I feel like the idea 1950s factory jobs are coming back or that anybody is seriously talking about employing millions of workers assembling widgets is absurd. That’s not what is happening. But the reality is AI is going to shake up the information economy and there will be more jobs in management of manufacturing, sales of domestic goods, transportation, storage, materials supply, etc—if we enlarge our manufacturing base. We also have other reasons to be able to produce product domestically. You enlarge our manufacturing base you won’t get millions of factory floor jobs but you will get administrative and maintenance jobs, and many ancillary jobs and companies that come with that kind of expansion. Which will be handy when 60% of information economy jobs go away, or need to be relocated in other sectors (manufacturing, the trades, as support jobs).
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This take is fucking retarded.
https://x.com/LHSummers/status/1907607829231317473
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Best response in the comments:
“The fact that you think families of four have $300,000 is odd. American workers aren’t asset rich, largely because of the status quo economic policy.”
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The 2008 GFC / real estate bubble cost something like $6T.
No, tariffs are not going to cost 5 times that.
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So he doesn’t understand how markets work? Or this is primarily emotional panic BY DEFINITION, as it could be nothing else in response to an hour of rhetoric? Or that your average family of four doesn’t have $300k in the stock market, or that the market indexes are not the only indicator of value in the economy?
You are correct. A lot of retards out there.
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Every time I look at the left’s freakout over tariffs, I start humming the Stone’s 19th nervous breakdown.
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It takes a heart of stone not to laugh.
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You turn into a broad because you have autogynephilia and while your at it you want to dominate women cause you hate them and end losing to another dude like you! lol!
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We are about a minute away from men beginning to complain the other man isn’t “female enough” to be considered a woman, and so shouldn’t be allowed to compete as a woman. “Listen to ‘her’ voice! ‘She’ is scamming! Now me, I’m a real woman! I don’t even think about my giant penis anymore.”
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Love the thought of a tranny bitching about another tranny being to male while brag-complaining about their penis size. Very on-brand for a dude.
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l think Trump has been clear about his stance on Trade – he will only enter deals that favor the US, not deals that only result in equality.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/07/peter-navarro-says-vietnams-0percent-tariff-offer-is-not-enough-its-the-non-tariff-cheating-that-matters.html
Trump believes that the US’s guarantee of of shipping lane security needs to be paid for by trade partners. And allies, who fall under the US security umbrella will be required to provide even more advantages because of that cost.
I bet if you ask Trump, he’d say that the US has not entered into any agreement where it has been favored and he aims to reverse that.
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Hoping that is just a negotiating posture. If it isn’t then I suspect Congress will act.
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Well, it is like Trump to state maximalist demands. I suspect he’ll reject EU and China deals out of hand just to try and leverage a better one. I still predict the 10% tariffs on all imports survives though, that’s the Pax American tax.
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Technically, Congress should act. Issuing tariffs shouldn’t reside with the executive. Ultimately they should pull it back. There are obvious problems with the President King model which is why our founding fathers muted the president’s powers and made Congress a separate house and senate rather than a parliament. Of course would also have been better if so many of our past unitary executives hadn’t labored so hard to centralize government power in DC. All of the executive power Trump is wielding was laid out for him by the left.
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I put the blame on Congress, they have continuously delegated power, unconstitutionally, IMO, to the Executive. To my way of thinking, even the smallest agency rule should either be made by Congress, or, either the entire Congress of, say, the House committee that has oversight of a particular agency should have to vote to approve each and every individual rule.
Yes, that means expanding the House.
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Oh I 100% blame Congress. If they hadn’t delegated so much authority that belongs in the legislative branch and in legislatively passed LAWS rather than both laws (“regulations”) and enforcement being delegated to agencies that are partially or entirely under the executive in truth if not always in practice, Trump would not be able to do 80% of what he’s doing.
Again, the Democrats, the left, and the Uniparty have made this bed, 100%, and now Trump is making them lie down in it.
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What’s interesting is that they’re not demanding that power back, which makes me doubt how sincere their Trump is Hitler bullshit is. They’re desperate for some sort of life and death cause to which they can participate against, while not incurring any real risk since, you know, Trump isn’t Hitler. How larping is in anyway satisfying though, I’ll never know.
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They believe the LARP at an emotional level, thus find it satisfying. I think most of them have emotional issues that make be hostile to others, experience profound hate for anonymous others, permission to by racist and sexist (which anyone of any gender or race being MAGA gives them), and of course the permission to steal and vandalize and otherwise commit mild or serious violence, or advocate it—all that clearly feeds some broken emotional need in certain people, and the left is a much better place to scratch that itch than the right or the center. So Trump is exactly as Hitler as he needs to be to give them permission to make every day their own personal January 6th.
As for most the politicians, they just feed their psychosis as they see that has how they keep or grow their power, often mistaking volume for relevance. IMO.
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And I should have also said: I love the idea of BY RULE bi-partisan committees having to approve every rule.
I also think there should be a rule that gives first dibs to independents for regulatory oversight assignments so there is at least the potential for less party capture.
I also want to see DOGE functionally become a fourth branch of government, built with all the incentives to avoid regulatory capture. They are who should be utterly independent of the executive and legislative branch (and ultimately that would mean some form of protecting how it’s staffed from party and special interest capture).
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“cause it’s the nontariff cheating that matters,” Navarro said”
This is especially true with regards to EU “Health and Safety” regulations.
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Think we have hit the market bottom?
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I think Trump will reject some offers from big countries like Japan, EU (I know, not a Country) in an attempt to sweeten the deal. Plus, I think in most instances the 10% stays on. If the above is true, we still have 1-2k points to lose still. We’re still in the hope over reason phase.
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Hoping.
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Johnny Rotten is still a punk.
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Interesting analysis:
“China Is Cheating the Hell out of Us”: Trump Will “Have a Lot of Rope” To Go After China
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Brent, when I asked whether globalization would continue without us I was thinking along the following lines.
The USA has a comparative advantage in AG, generally, and in natural gas, and some manufactured goods [caterpillar tractors come to mind].
But unlike 1950 when the rest of the world was dependent on us we can be traded around pretty easily.
George suggested our patrol of the sea lanes is part of the deal but I don’t think we are the sole guarantor of the shipping lanes – you know China is ready to step in and the Brits can keep the south atlantic trade open if it comes to that.
This worked better when the post-NAFTA and the EU during Biden imposed huge tariffs on China’s EVs to keep them from being dumped – because strategic tariffs work better when there is a strategy. Tariffs as a general revenue raiser are simply an addition to COGS and we all know that.
Talk me down about it. I want to hear a rational counter.
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Mark, I think globalization will continue, but I think the days of the paternalistic US are in the rear view mirror. We have accepted an uneven playing field, where we let other countries impose tariffs on our goods and we accepted it. If you are a US consumer, you are better off without tariffs, not with them. The economic analysis didn’t go any further than consumer welfare, and ignored any “externalities” of a hollowed-out industrial base.
I think both parties realize that a hollowed-out manufacturing base is a national security risk, and being too dependent on China is a bad thing. So the goal is to bring back things like chips, steel etc. back to the US. China is only getting stronger, so it makes sense to do so sooner rather than later. Also to find another source of rare earth elements.
I see no reason why China can’t be in charge of combatting pirates in the Strait of Malacca. And with the US now being energy independent, I am ready to hand off the Middle East to someone else. Let the Italians and the French (Total and Eni have most of the fields in Iran / Iraq) keep the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz open. Does Israel need our help militarily? Maybe, but I think they can take care of themselves.
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Thanks.
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Also the bet that WTO membership would lead to a more democratic China failed completely. The 1990’s were not in fact “The End of History”.
You may find this of interest as well:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/04/10/trump-tariff-support-oren-cass/
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“We have accepted an uneven playing field, where we let other countries impose tariffs on our goods and we accepted it.”
Or “Health and Safety” regulations that amounted to the same thing.
I think for a long time this was viewed as part of the cost of fighting the Cold War and helping Europe rebuild after World War II, but those considerations are no longer relevant. It’s just taken this long for someone to really challenge the status quo.
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Love the headline and framing.
https://archive.is/pd4W4
Democrats have NEVER challenge the court’s legitimacy.
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Article does not seem to adress (as SCOTUS has not) the legitimacy of district judges proving injunctive relief for the entire nation in terms of telling the president how he must do his job. The real underlying question is how can a person or a small group demand injunctive relief not just for themselves but globally, and then how can a district judge provide injunctive relief that applies nationally and even globally, outside the confines of their district? If they could not issue injunctions that demand the administration not do novel things but also demand THEY RELEASE HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS to people where they believe there is profound fraud and waste, and the money will not be retrievable … then the Trump admin would be letting all this stuff work its way through the appellate court and slowly up to SCOTUS, rather than all hitting the shadow docket for narrow technical rulings.
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It’s a good idea as they’re not voting for Republicans anyway.
https://www.semafor.com/article/04/08/2025/trump-told-republican-senators-hes-open-to-raising-taxes-on-highest-earners
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It is amazing to watch Trump morph into Dick Gebhardt
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1/2 Dick Gephardt, 1/2 Gordon Gecko.
“Well, ladies and gentlemen, we’re not here to indulge in fantasy, but in political and economic reality. America, America has become a second-rate power. Its trade deficit and its fiscal deficit are at nightmare proportions.”
https://www.americanrhetoric.com/MovieSpeeches/moviespeechwallstreet.html
It looks like Gephardt has evolved too:
“On January 3, 2005, Gephardt’s three-decade political career ended with the expiration of his 14th term in the House of Representatives. That month, Gephardt started a consulting and lobbying firm, Gephardt Group, of which he is president and CEO. Gephardt also joined the international law firm DLA Piper as strategic advisor in the government affairs practice group from June 2005 to December 2009.
…
In 2007, Gephardt began serving on the advisory board of the Extend Health insurance company, and then became a member of its board of directors. In 2009, Gephardt advised UnitedHealth Group, one of America’s largest private insurers, in waging a strong campaign against a public option for national health care.In 2010, Gephardt was elected chair of the Board of Trustees of The Scripps Research Institute, a nonprofit institute focusing on biomedical research.
Gephardt has been significantly involved with the pharmaceutical and healthcare industries. In addition to a large lobbying contract with the Medicines Company,he serves as chair of the Council for American Medical Innovation (CAMI), formed by and affiliated with PhRMA. In this capacity he hired his own firm to lobby for the organization, to push to extend patents and block generic drugs from the market.In 2016, Gephardt also co-founded a Direct primary care group called SolidaritUS Health, with the goal of increasing the accessibility of quality healthcare to working families.
Gephardt has also served as a lobbyist for Boeing. He is a labor consultant for Spirit Aerosystems and sits on its board of directors. In these roles, Gephardt has presided over an aggressive anti-union campaign that has bewildered many of his traditional political allies.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dick_Gephardt
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For Republicans this is 100% true. Would also be good to take that cover away from Democrats. Raise tax on millionaires and cut an another percent or two off sub-$100k earners and see what Democrats who always accuse Republicans of tax-cuts-for-billionaires do. They left needs to all pretenses of being pro-working class and pro-middle class taken away from them. Because it is a pretense.
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