Morning Report: Durable goods orders jump

Vital Statistics:

Mortgage applications fell 2% last week as purchases fell 1% and refis fell 5%. “Purchase applications saw the strongest weekly pace in almost two months and were 7 percent higher than a year ago. Last week’s purchase activity was driven primarily by a 6 percent increase in FHA applications, as the combination of loosening housing inventory and slowly declining mortgage rates have presented this segment of buyers with more opportunities,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Additionally, VA purchase applications saw a modest increase over the week. Overall applications declined, however, as refinance applications were down 5 percent to its lowest level in a month.”

Added Kan, “Markets remained focused on potential trade policy changes, while the Fed held the funds rate its current level, resulting in the 30-year fixed rate averaging 6.71 percent last week.” 

Durable goods orders rose 0.9% in February, which was well above Street expectations. Durable goods orders ex-transportation rose 0.7%, again above expectations. The upside surprise was primarily attributed to aircraft orders. The strength in orders is being attributed to a rebound after a few weak months. Business might be front-loading some orders ahead of tariffs. That said, shipments remain strong so business is doing reasonably well.

It does pour some cold water on the narrative that Trump is causing enough uncertainty that business is sitting on its hands. I am not sure how much of this is astroturfed media wishcasting and how much is real. Q1 earnings will tell the story, especially what is said on earnings conference calls.

The latest Atlanta Fed GDP Now model still sees -1.8% growth in Q1 however.

9 Responses

  1. Finding Out

    What the Greenpeace verdict means for the professional protest industry.

    Doomberg

    Mar 27, 2025

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    https://newsletter.doomberg.com/p/finding-out

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  2. I love this continuous attack on Hegseth, now joined in by Republican Senators.

    What’s fascinating is their shameless devotion to forever wars and their panic that Hegseth won’t continue it. Plus, all the dirty laundry with him has already been made public so there is nothing to hold over him.

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    • That Hegseth and RFK and Gabbard and the rest are in the cabinet is demonstrative of the incompetence of the left in the US. This shit would never fly in the UK or France.

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  3. lol!

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  4. Talk about Democracy unraveling!

    https://townhall.com/tipsheet/leahbarkoukis/2025/03/31/marine-le-pen-n2654740

    It’s not over here, either. If Trump is actually starting to be effective ( I’m very sure he won’t be, ultimately), he won’t be allowed to survive.

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    • I think our aspiring globalist overlord cabal in the US way over estimated their own competence. Unfortunately they are much more effective at arresting their political opponents so maintaining the elite hegemonic rule over their peasant citizens in Europe.

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  5. Love the headline, as if Congress hasn’t made itself mostly irrelevant by delegating (unconstitutionally, IMO) huge swaths of their power.

    https://12ft.io/https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2025/04/07/john-thune-profile-senate-majority-leader

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    • They are trying to read Thune’s mind, but Thune just sounds like a politician who is diplomatic, not secretly waiting for the moment where he can torpedo Trump’s agenda. These people practically demand Republicans use the exact language Trump uses or they must but against him.

      He’s new but right now I’ll take him over McConnell. And it’s not like McConnell was that terrible.

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  6. This is probably the best outcome in the current circumstances.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/02/nyregion/eric-adams-case-dismissed.html

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