Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Arcanaut
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
Stocks are flat after the CPI came in higher than expected. Bonds and MBS are down.
Consumer prices rose 0.5% MOM in January, according to the BLS. This was higher than the 0.3% Street expectation. The core rate rose 0.4%. Given that we have typically seen a bump in January as companies raise prices in the new year, a 0.3% increase was probably tough to get. On a year-over-year basis, the headline rate rose 3% and the core rate rose 3.3%.
The shelter index rose 4.4% on a YOY basis, the smallest increase since January, 2022. Transportation (especially motor vehicle insurance) was up 8% on a YOY basis.
The bond market sold off pretty heavily on the number, with the 10 year yield rising about 10 basis points. That said, sentiment in the bond market remains lousy given the tariff backdrop, and rates are up big in Europe and Asia today.
I showed the chart below yesterday, which gives an idea of how much annual inflation is front-loaded in the first quarter, and how inflation seems to tail off as the year goes on. I put a red line on the chart to show the January of 2025 number. The 0.3% expectation was basically a heavy lift, given that pre-pandemic January inflation typically came in at that level, but we are close. Things are improving.
Jerome Powell testified in front of the Senate yesterday as part of his semiannual Humprey-Hawkins testimony. Here are his prepared remarks.
With our policy stance now significantly less restrictive than it had been and the economy remaining strong, we do not need to be in a hurry to adjust our policy stance. We know that reducing policy restraint too fast or too much could hinder progress on inflation. At the same time, reducing policy restraint too slowly or too little could unduly weaken economic activity and employment. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the FOMC will assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.
The March Fed Funds futures see little to no chance of a rate cut, and the December futures see a 32% chance of no cuts this year. The bottom line is that rates are still restrictive but as long as the economy continues to behave they will remain that way.
Mortgage applications rose 2.3% last week as purchases fell 2% and refis rose 10%. “Mortgage rates moved slightly lower last week, which led to the pace of refinance applications reaching its strongest week since October 2024,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “The average loan size for refinance borrowers increased, as these borrowers tend to be more responsive for a given change in rates. Purchase applications were down from the previous week’s level but were slightly ahead of last year’s pace. The average loan size for a purchase application increased to its highest level since March 2022 at $456,100, partially driven by fewer FHA purchase applications but more VA loans compared to the previous week.”
Filed under: Economy |
All Things in Moderation 
Now it can be told.
https://archive.is/ofkve
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Entertaining… “I defended John Kerry when people said he looked French, but Marie Antoinette would have been embarrassed by that speech”
JUST IN: Matt Taibbi Takes Aim At John Kerry, USAID In Direct Warning Of Threats To Free Speech
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The written version:
https://www.racket.news/p/my-statement-to-congress-574
This point was key:
““Building consensus” may be a politician’s job, but it’s not mine as a citizen or as a journalist. In fact, making it hard to govern is exactly the media’s job. The failure to understand this is why we have a censorship problem.”
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These brave men will fight to the last Ukrainian.
Hillary must be avenged!
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And the last Russian. They don’t care who has to die. They are that brave. I don’t often use the word hero …
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Vox’s defense of DEI shows that the issues were worse than previously known, especially at the FAA.
https://www.vox.com/politics/399804/trump-dei-democrats-faa
https://www.tracingwoodgrains.com/p/the-faas-hiring-scandal-a-quick-overview
https://www.tracingwoodgrains.com/p/the-full-story-of-the-faas-hiring
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It sounds like they were understaffed and would rather leave a position unfilled than hire a non-diverse candidate.
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This will be a good test of whether or not there’s any kind of substantive “resistance”:
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Hah! Jeff Roush has me pre-blocked on there. That’s funny. In any case, how is this “corrupt deal” worse than anything done by Biden? I’m not exactly following.
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They didn’t pardon Adams. They are holding the criminal charges over him to ensure his cooperation on policy.
It’s basically extortion.
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If true, the judge can just dismiss with prejudice.
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Which is probably what the judge should do.
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In the reverse, can a judge compel the Justice Department to prosecute?
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jnc:
Looks like the amicus is recommending my solution:
https://archive.ph/DCXcU
“Paul Clement, the amicus appointed by Manhattan federal judge Dale Ho to counsel him on the Justice Department’s application to dismiss the corruption case against New York City Mayor Eric Adams, has appropriately advised the court that the case should be dismissed. The dismissal, however, should be with prejudice — meaning that the Trump Justice Department would not be able to revive the charges — as opposed to the without prejudice term proposed by DOJ official Emil Bove.”
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Interesting. Eh, that works, too, I guess.
From what I gathered that’s nothing new on the DoJ.
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“In the reverse, can a judge compel the Justice Department to prosecute?”
I don’t believe so. Popehat discussed that here:
https://www.serioustrouble.show/p/not-like-us-attorneys
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My goodness, Vance just lit those euroweenies up in Munich.
https://acecomments.mu.nu/?post=413676
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NR covering itself in glory again.
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These people can’t get out of the 1990s. Even when Trump moves so fast it becomes clear it was not what they were thinking weeks or days or sometimes hours later; so many handwringing pieces about the Colombian tariffs in the hours before it was over with the desired resolution. They shrug and then Trump takes the next “Art of the Deal” position on something and they start with the handwringing True Conservative pieces all over again.
I like McCarthy. I think he’s genuine and fair minded. I like Eli Lake, who sounded near tears about the defunding of the National Endowment for Democracy. I like John Podhoretz who spent an hour on all the bad things that would have because of the Colombian tariffs …
They do not seem to grasp the historical moment they are in, or do so incompletely. They don’t seem to understand why Trump would need to go after those who weaponized or even seemed to weaponize the DoJ and pull them out, root and stem.
Part of that for these guys is that they are not bad guys, but are still swamp creatures. They’ve grown so used to the swamp they have no sense how it plays outside of DC. And they worry over populism and strong men … I don’t think they understand Trump and Vance and Musk are the preventative medicine for becoming a populist mobocracy where people start getting strung up on gibbets. The people screeching about funding are likely having their careers and probably fortunes saved by what is going on; whatever creature came after Trump would not be so gentle and diplomatic.
It’s fine for them to worry over the niceties but they have no idea what they are on about. Spare the deep state within the DoJ now and 12 years from now the DoJ might literally be burning. You need to let the man do his work.
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I find the NR crew exhausting. They are the embodiment of the old Wolfe adage, “ The dark night of fascism is always descending in the United States and yet lands only in Europe.” whereas the Left and NR are Europe.
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What, exactly, is the setback for Trump?
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I see zero setback here, all I see is upside. Worst case scenario, Adams did some self-dealing he ought not have and is getting out of it scot free like a million politicians before him. Oh no.
These resignations are excellent. People are saying we won’t work for you, we would be saboteurs in your administration irrespective of our “conservative” bona fides, and now we are leading so we can be replaced with people who will actually do the job.
That none of them seem to find it odd that the prosecutions started the minute Adams call the Biden administration out on immigration policy, and only then. Not suspicious or convenient at all. Just honest prosecutors keeping an eye on Adams like no doubt they do on every other mayor on every city in America. Of course.
Sure. Resign in a fit of dubious moral pique. I only see upside for Trump here. And I don’t want people who handle themselves like that over a case like this anywhere near the DoJ. Good riddance to bad rubbish.
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Oh, the humanity!
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I love the headline.
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/02/17/judge-chutkan-musk-lawsuit-hearing-00204590
I’m guessing those cancelled government employee subscriptions are leaving a bad taste in their mouth.
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The man is a master.
https://archive.is/iDs1d
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This chick and what’s she’s done and is doing re DOGE and NGO funding is worth a follow.
I don’t know if she ultimately survives, considering what and who she is exposing.
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This is a good article. Don’t know where he gets his info but it sounds like, as I expected, Trump showed up prepared. So while there can be a lot of sound and fury from the Dems and the medias, it signifies
Nothing. Already had a full list of critical non-appointment positions and who would be in them. Had legal and media response teams ready for all the traditional #resistance efforts.
And it suggest DOGE does indeed know more than they are saying and they are going to end up knowing where all the money goes.
https://x.com/ekolovesyou/status/1887301698814988567?s=46
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Hilarious alternate universe over at the KosKidz.
https://www.dailykos.com/
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Brent you see the news on Fannie & Freddie?
https://www.wsj.com/finance/regulation/new-hud-chief-sets-sights-on-fannie-freddie-cost-cutting-and-new-name-2e83652f
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The problem with releasing Fannie and Freddie is that it would take an immense amount of capital. Fannie alone has something like $4 trillion in MBS outstanding, assuming they apply the Basel III requirements which include a base 4.5%, a 2.5% buffer, and a 1% systemically important bank fee. So figure something like $320 billion in capital will be required.
I don’t know how you raise that. Theoretically the US could sell part of it, but once they go below the 79.9% threshold the value of the guaranteed debt would have to be consolidated on the US balance sheet. This was why LBJ privatized them in the first place – to make the debt balances of the US look better.
I guess you could subtract off the MBS held by the Fed, but even still that is a lot of capital to raise.
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My understanding is that if they stopped the automatic dividend sweep to the treasury, then they would recapitalize over time.
I find it galling that they are still playing the quasi-government entity game all these years later. Either fully nationalize them and bring them onto the government’s books or come up with a plan to return them to private ownership.
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The left is content to leave them as they are. At a minimum, they should have their mission limited to helping the first time homebuyer / low-income homebuyers. No need to subsidize investment properties / beach houses.
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I’d get rid of them entirely and have all government housing support done through the FHA.
My understanding is that the FHA was dedicated to supporting first time home buyers.
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