Morning Report: Productivity Declines

Vital Statistics:

Stocks are flattish this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are down small.

The services PMI declined in January, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The index declined from 54% to 52.8% on weaker activity and orders, however it remains in expansion territory, where it has been for nearly the past 5 years.

While activity declined somewhat, there were two bright spots. Employment increased by 1% and prices declined by 4%. Tariffs remain a worry. “January was the second month in a row with all four subindexes that directly factor into the Services PMI® — Business Activity, New Orders, Employment and Supplier Deliveries — in expansion territory. Slower growth in the Business Activity and New Orders indexes led to the lower composite index reading. Poor weather conditions were highlighted by many respondents as impacting business levels and production. Like last month, many panelists also mentioned preparations or concerns related to potential U.S. government tariff actions; however, there was little mention of current business impacts as a result.”

Announced job cuts increased 28% to 49,795 in January, according to the Challenger and Gray Job Cut Report. While this is an increase from December, there is a big seasonal element, and it is a decrease of 40% compared to January of 2024. Hiring plans increased.

Productivity declined in the fourth quarter to 1.2% compared to 2.3% in the third quarter. Unit labor costs increased from 0.5% to 3.0%. This might have explained why inflation reappeared in Q4. Output increased 2.3% and hours worked increased 1%.

Productivity is a big driver of non-inflationary growth, and it has been trending down for the past couple of years. Note that productivity collapsed in 2022, right about the time inflation was peaking

30 Responses

  1. MILF’s support MILF’s

    Plus, the underlying possibility of literal G on G action!

    Also, this comment is a doozie!

    Feb 06, 2025 at 10:30:30 AM

    Tulsi Gabbard is potentially more dangerous to us than Trump is.

    She’s young, attractive, intelligent, tough, and articulate…everything Trump ISN’T.

    If she girds up her bona fides with the right during the next four years and gets nominated by the GOP, we’ll have a hell of a time winning the general unless Trump destroys the economy (in which case no GOPer will win in 2028).

    avatar

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    • I’d definitely vote for her as President. 2028 Republican primary should be interesting.

      Like

    • Yeah, reading the comments the Daily Kos folks are simply unmoored from reality completely. They are worse than even the actual average Democratic voter, or the view. They think they are in a Christiana theocracy.

      Also nobody mentions the very good chance JD Vance fucking steamrolls whatever poor chump the Democrats fluidgender victim Olympics nomination process vomits out next time? These people do not live in reality.

      Like

  2. If you haven’t read it yet, the Bannon interview in the NYT is good:

    https://archive.ph/2czHM

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  3. I find it fascinating that Obama is essentially responsible for DOGE, and thanks to Obama and Biden, all the Democrats complaining that DOGE employees can’t do what they are doing because they aren’t vetted and don’t have clearances, and they don’t have the authority, yada yada, is in fact not true.

    https://www.dailywire.com/news/a-doge-origin-story-how-barack-obama-laid-the-groundwork-for-elon-musk

    Also interesting that during the first administration that what is now DOGE was a 5th column, sabotaging the Trump administration (like many other pieces and parts of the executive branch) at every turn. Not this time.

    Like

  4. One can only hope:

    The “Twitter Files,” except this time it will be Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid.And our feckless media will amplify it all uncritically.

    Charles Johnson (@charles.littlegreenfootballs.com) 2025-02-07T20:13:25.962Z

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    • there was some weirdness happening with the adjustment to the 3/24 benchmarking. I suspect this report will get revised in a big way over the next month or two.

      The number of people employed in Jan 25 versus Dec 24 increased by 2.2 million.

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  5. JD Vance is based af. When Trump nominated him I did not think he was a great choice, for a variety of reasons. Convention performance did not help. Debate performance did help. Interviews have helped considerable more. But this response to cancel culture?

    https://x.com/jdvance/status/1887960225195638848?s=46

    He was the perfect choice. Exactly the person we needed in this moment.

    Like

  6. My gawd, that’s funny!

    Was this off the cuff or had he held this for the right moment? Either way, chef’s kiss.

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  7. Matt Tiabbi just dropped a note that about half a billion in USAID money went to Internews, and to give him time because he’s sifting through the filth. 

    USAID has pushed nearly half a billion dollars ($472.6m) through a secretive US government financed NGO, “Internews Network” (IN), which has “worked with” 4,291 media outlets, producing in one year 4,799 hours of broadcasts reaching up to 778 million people and “training” over 9000 journalists (2023 figures). IN has also supported social media censorship initiatives… 

    Have you ever come across a big piece of plywood lying flat in a field, or a junkyard? Sometimes you pick it up and it’s just dirt, and sometimes it’s a mass of snakes and maggots and wriggling things.  Please bear with me on Internews. This one’s going to take a minute. 

    Like

  8. Sweet Jeebus, that’s funny!

    Trump has turned a small space off the Oval Office, one that he used to call “The Monica Room,” 

    https://nypost.com/2025/02/08/us-news/inside-trumps-hectic-day-to-day-schedule-as-prez-begins-to-transform-federal-government/

    Like

  9. I found this to be a good view of the larger issues at stake with Trump’s executive orders:

    “Welcome to America’s Fourth Great Constitutional Rupture

    Feb. 10, 2025, 5:02 a.m. ET

    Recent presidents have pushed the envelope of executive power, including that of President Barack Obama in providing protection for unauthorized immigrants who arrived as children and President Joe Biden in ordering the forgiveness of some student loans.

    Mr. Trump would take these exceptions and make them the new norm.”

    https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/10/opinion/trump-caesar-constitutional-rupture.html

    Like

  10. Who will be the American POTUS that offers the King a deal he can’t refuse to turn over Jordan to the majority Palestinian population and leave.

    https://twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1yNGaLrMoygKj

    We all know that is the inevitable solution.

    Like

  11. So apparently the decision to blow up the Nord Stream pipeline wasn’t made by Biden because he was too far gone by then.

    “The buck, of course, when it came to such covert ops, always stopped with the president.

    But as one of the operatives told me, the rule did not apply when it came to Biden’s stopping Putin in the Ukraine operation. The president “out of the picture intellectually by the time the Russians invaded,” he said. Biden’s hostility toward the continuing flow of Russian gas to Germany was on the record when he handled some oil and gas issues as Obama’s vice president.

    On February 7, 2022, less than three weeks before Russia would invade Ukraine, Biden held a meeting in the White House with Scholz. When asked about Nord Stream 2, Biden said: “If Russia invades . . . there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it.”

    I was told that the Americans in the field took on the assignment in the belief that they were working to support a US president standing up to the Russian leader and assuring Putin that he meant what he said. “Our mission was set up as a deterrent to Russia going to war in Ukraine,” an involved US official told me, “and we had the capability to blow up the pipelines. That was to be the mission—to show Putin that we have a president who doesn’t fuck around. And look at what happened.” He was referring to the fact that Russia invaded and an order to trigger the mines that did not come until seven months later.”

    https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/nord-stream-and-the-failures-of-the

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