Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Arcanaut
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
Stocks are higher this morning after a strong jobs report. Bonds and MBS are getting slammed.
The port strike has been suspended as the ports and Longshoreman’s union extended their contract through to Jan 15. The issue was almost certainly unhelpful to the Democrats for the upcoming election, so the fight has been tabled until it is over.
The economy added 254,000 jobs in September, according to the Employment Situation Report. This was well above the Street expectations of 132,000. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%. The employment-population ratio ticked up, while the labor force participation rate was flat.
Average hourly earnings rose 4%, which was well above the 3.7% expectation. Overall, it was a strong report.
The early reaction in the bond market was negative, as it gives the Fed more leeway to move cautiously with rate cuts. The 10 year spiked to 3.99% before falling back.
The Fed Funds futures currently see 25 basis points in November and another in December.
The services economy expanded in September, according to the ISM Services Report. “The increase in the Services PMI® in September was driven by boosts of more than 6 percentage points for both the Business Activity and New Orders indexes. The Employment and Supplier Deliveries indexes had mixed results, with a 2.1-percent decrease and 2.5-percent increase, respectively. The Supplier Deliveries Index returned to expansion in September, indicating slower delivery performance. The stronger growth indicated by the index data was generally supported by panelists’ comments; however, concerns over political uncertainty are more prevalent than last month. Pricing of supplies remains an issue with supply chains continuing to stabilize; one respondent voiced concern over potential port labor issues. The interest-rate cut was welcomed; however, labor costs and availability continue to be a concern across most industries.”
Filed under: Economy | Tagged: Economy, Federal Reserve, finance, inflation, investing |
All Things in Moderation 
Imma need some tissues.
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I Honestly can’t decide if it’s malice or incompetence.
https://redstate.com/nick-arama/2024/10/05/more-tone-deaf-posts-from-biden-admin-n2180173
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This made me laugh.
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Weird.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/06/politics/harris-biden-breaks/index.html
Thought Biden was the greatest POTUS ever and belonged on Mt. Rushmore.
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Glad everything on the home front is a ok so they could do this.
https://www.ang.af.mil/Media/Article-Display/Article/3923892/texas-guard-airmen-provide-flooding-response-support-in-czechia/
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I’m having a hard time seeing why this is a bad thing.
“Trump secretly sent covid tests to Putin during 2020 shortage, new book says”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/10/08/bob-woodward-new-book-war-trump-putin-biden/
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The NY Times focus groups continue to be interesting. Note the responses on capitalism and the Supreme Court.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/10/08/opinion/undecided-voters-harris-trump-focus-group.html
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The NYT has to be shitting bricks. Kamala needs to win this group by a lot.
I also think Jan 6 matters mainly to the left and everyone else stopped caring.
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My read of the focus group is that people want Trump to acknowledge he lost and promise not to instigate another riot again. It’s salient when the media keeps bringing it up and Trump and/or Vance overreact to it.
Trump would be better served if his argument was that he technically lost but the election wasn’t “fair”.
If he’s not going to take that approach, then he should flat out dodge it with the whole “I’m talking about the future, not the past”, but message discipline isn’t his strong suit.
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jnc:
Trump would be better served if his argument was that he technically lost but the election wasn’t “fair”.
I completely agree. As you say, Trump is Trump so I don’t expect him to be good with this question, but Vance should be better. This is an easy one.
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The thing is, the Biden percentage in the mail-in ballots had to be way different than the Biden percentage in the day of voting numbers to pull up the average.
The day-of-voting numbers is the control group because it is a random sample by definition.
The difference in percentages would probably be statistically significant at the 2 standard deviation level at least, and probably more.
That speaks to fraud or harvesting.
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“This is an easy one.”
He should just quote the Molly Ball Time magazine piece about “fortifying” the election in his most sarcastic manner possible.
https://time.com/5936036/secret-2020-election-campaign/
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This should be a Trump commercial.
https://twitter.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1843671661943624014
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Lol
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I actually don’t see a problem with this. There’s no reason a book tour interview has to be ambush style. I’d rather see a thought through response to the question, especially if it’s substantive and challenges the author’s viewpoint.
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Trump could do worse than Jack Goldsmith for Attorney General if he gets a second term.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/09/opinion/jack-smith-trump-biden.html
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Quite revealing of leftist thought.
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Personal choice is troubling? Like abortion? Now I’m confused.
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This is actually very interesting:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/interactive/2024/bob-woodward-trump-interview-1989/?itid=hp_opinions_p001_f016
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And I don’t see a problem with this either:
The distaste from Woodward that “non-experts” were giving opinions is palpable.
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If Saint Barack did that, he would be applauded as stunning and brave
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Experts are highly over-rated. When expertise is conferred by title, it is frequently worthless. When by resume it is usually worthless. In my experience expertise is best established by active demonstration of command of knowledge and accomplishment in the moment, humility, openness to input (because expertise is not omniscience and actual experts know this; arrogant incompetent pricks who consider themselves experts do not).
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I’m curious if WaPo thinks we should be scandalized by this. It makes me like him more as his obvious attitude is that weakness, or perceived weakness, draws aggression. I’ve never seen that falsified.
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Weakness always draws aggression; strength repels it. Military victories end wars and prevent future wars. Limited military actions ensure war continues endlessly. Retreating from an objectively weaker enemy means you will be at war with them again. Always.
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If only the Republican Party treated the left the same way Trump treats them.
Instead we have a bunch of guys like Jonah Goldberg walking around with a “kick me” sign on their backs who think they are losing with dignity.
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I think Goldberg thought Trump would lose resoundingly in 2016 and he along with other NeverTrumper’s would be vindicated. Trump’s populism really goes against the Establishment Romney/Bush wing of the party. When Trump won, he needed a new funding source and, unlike Shapiro, was unable to forge a new post-Trump peace with the new Republican party, so he went the Pierre Omidyar route with Bill Kristal and Steven Hayward. At some point post Trump that avenue will close and it will be interesting to see what both of them do.
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Well now he has joined the Washington Generals wing of the Republican Party.
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I still listen to Goldberg a lot, and it’s clear he pines for the old days of classy elitist losing-with-dignity conservatism, and while he never speaks ill of Bill Kristol he has not become a mouth-frothing grifting leftist like Kristol has. He hasn’t recently had disagreements with David French (and gotten in trouble with other NeverTrumper’s for criticizing Liz Cheney’s campaigning for Kamala). He does a bit of woe-is-me because he’s alway getting it from both sides for not being pro-Trump or pro-Harris. He really hates Trump (and hated Kayleigh McEnany with an irrational hatred) because of the uncouthness of it all, and lack of rigorously citationed white papers before every policy decision, but he seems genuinely as mystified as me at the logic of David French arguing that Harris is the conservative choice for president.
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I disagree with Vance on a lot of policy stuff, but he should run a mandatory school for Republicans on how to deal with the press, how to handle debates, how to argue points in public settings, etc. Trump will fight, great. He flails more than he lands hits. Vance will land hits with precision, over and over again. Even saying stuff I disagree with on questions I’m not sure he actually agrees with his answer (such as certifying the 2020 election) he argues back better than Trump does or most Republicans would. That’s what the Republicans need. Do we need a GOP installing the tools of a “conservative” industrial policy that can be turned easily to the goals of the left when the other party is in power? No. But we could certainly use Vance’s ability to handle a hostile and honestly incompetent media.
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But Global Warming research?
Rock.Fucking.Solid.
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And the left will bemoan the loss of trust in “the experts”
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McWing, why do you hate Mother Earth so?
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Inexplicably, Joe forgets to ask him if the allegation is true.
Oh well, I’m sure it was just an oversight.
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I expect Joe just assumes it’s true, and is just sympathizing with him as it reminds him when he murdered an intern and how hard it was to center himself back then.
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Looks like we’re at the Worse Than Hitler stage, y’all.
New assassination gaslighting is commencing.
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They make no persuasion arguments. I don’t get it. The Republicans and the right don’t do much persuasion but the left does zero persuasion. It’s all fear and shame, all they have in their toolbox. And lying, of course, which becomes tiresome. Trump’s lies, which are legion, seem downright tame compared to the constant lies about him. And frankly I would have said in the past his lies were more obvious and absurd (point-making hyperbole) but now that’s not even true.
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California needs to lead the way on this.
For our sake and our salvation.
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Newsome can just say “no” to whatever they decide, right? I get the feeling he may be setting up some of these things to create the illusion that he has real moderate instincts or something. Not that anything he does will be enough to help California.
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By God, I think he’s onto something!
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I am mystified that people that the mainstream media that calls Trump literally Hitler and passes on unsubstantiated allegations as if they are known fact … are just not communicating how bad Trump is, and that’s the problem. Perhaps he might note that while the media is actually informing the public that Trump is a racist insurrectionist fascist rapist who has been indicted 39 times and also loves Hitler, but for some reason trust in the media is at an all time low.
He can’t possibly be serious.
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Great to hear from you Kevin!
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Here I am. I feel like the new superintendent we have is very much a Kamala Harris type. Incompetent narcissistic sociopath. Able to sell the board a bill of goods but just carving a path of destruction through the district on the taxpayers dime. Lots of 70 hour work weeks for me, thanks to her. Glad she’s not president!
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This made me laugh.
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Lol. Becoming ungovernable.
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