Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Arcanaut
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
Stocks are higher this morning as the Fed begins its meeting. Bonds and MBS are up.
Retail Sales rose 0.1% MOM in August, according to the Census Bureau. This was better than the -0.3% expectation. July retail sales were revised upward by 0.1% to 1.1%. On a year-over-year basis, they rose 2.1%. Since these numbers are not adjusted for inflation, retail sales actually fell slightly YOY on an inflation-adjusted basis.
If you strip out vehicles and gasoline, retail sales rose 0.2% MOM and 3.3% YOY. This was a touch above inflation. Overall, it looks like the consumer remains in decent shape as we head into the back-to-school and holiday shopping seasons.
The Fed begins their FOMC meeting today. The Fed Funds futures have been more volatile than I can remember before a Fed meeting. The current handicapping has a 2/3 chance of a 50 basis point cut and a 1/3 chance of 25.
CNBC’s survey of money managers is leaning 86% towards a 25 basis point cut, FWIW. “We believe that the equivalent of eight cuts in six meetings is more than what will happen,″ John Donaldson, director of fixed income, Haverford Trust Co. wrote in response to the survey. “That forecast is more in line with a hard landing than a soft landing.”
Barry Knapp from Ironsides Macroeconomics says, “We suspect the FOMC will either under-promise or under-deliver, perhaps both.”
The December futures are still predicting a total 125 basis points in cuts this year.
Home prices rose 0.5% MOM in August, according to research from Redfin. On a year-over-year basis, they rose 6.7%. “Prices kept creeping up during this unusually slow summer for home sales as mortgage rates came down and supply remained stubbornly low,” said Redfin Senior Economist Sheharyar Bokhari. “If mortgage rates fall further this fall—and we expect they will—price growth will likely pick up as more prospective homebuyers come off the sidelines .”
Filed under: Economy |
All Things in Moderation 
lol!
Gawd, Trump engages in such conspiracy theories!
https://redstate.com/rusty-weiss/2024/09/18/hillary-clinton-who-spread-election-propaganda-for-years-wants-to-jail-americans-for-misinformation-n2179436
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I read this piece and though of the When Harry Met Sally Exchange:
Harry: There are two types of women. High maintenance and low maintenance.
Sally: Which one am I?
Harry: “You’re the worst kind. You think you are low maintenance, but you are high maintenance”
https://www.pressermag.com/september-2024/the-left-has-an-authoritarian-problem
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Which makes me think of when Dave Weigel became a partial “me too” person when he forwarded the joke, all women are bi, the question is whether it’s sexual or polar.
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It takes a heart of stone not to laugh at this.
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Look, dude was just misunderstood.
Trump needs to stop what he’s doing, forcing good, patriotic men to do extreme things in defense of Liberty.
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“Baby, why did you make me shoot you?”
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AMAZING!
This is so smart of Republicans! Obviously election landslide ideas!
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Live like the 19th century, peasant.
Or, if the water rises, move a few feet farther away. Also, maybe the Sahara will become fertile.
just spitballing.
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Amusing:
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/19/nyregion/dr-jay-varma-nyc-covid.html
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And of course the think piece on it in The Atlantic:
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2024/09/jay-varma-covid-sex-parties/679983/
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Dude!
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Now it can be told
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This is just so evil!
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This makes me super interested in voting for Trump.
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Welp, that sells it for me.
It’s going to be a landslide for Harris because of this endorsement. Americans love, respect and, most importantly, trust the IRS.
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Top. People.
https://www.wusa9.com/article/news/local/dc/secret-service-agent-accidentally-shoots-himself-expected-to-survive-washington-dc/65-bf6dadf8-f891-426d-b8ee-b894ff1b379d
At this point I question the logic of Trump keeping the secret Service as his primary security providers.
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Interesting piece on a lawsuit against Pharmacy Benefit Managers:
https://www.thebignewsletter.com/p/monopoly-round-up-lina-khan-pharma
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The article does a good job explaining what is happening with the rebates but fails to note that much of the rebate money is used to lower premiums for the insurance companies various Medicare plans – if that were to end, those plans premiums would skyrocket. I suspect, much like attempts to reign in 340b issues, the lawsuits are kabuki designed to pacify the rubes. Government subsidy of insurance companies and hospitals will continue through these types of schemes. It’s just to unpalatable to literally have line items in the Federal budget for billions of dollars for Aetna and United and for entities like Atrium and Common Spirit.
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I can only pray the Democrats pursue this.
https://redstate.com/bonchie/2024/09/24/democrats-are-accusing-donald-trump-of-a-new-crime-and-its-as-insane-as-youd-imagine-n2179704
I’ll do anything, ANYTHING, to help this happen!
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To good to fact check.
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I could totally see Carville doing that…
Ross Morales, the co-founder of White Dudes For Harris epitomizes the Soyjack meme.
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My fear is it’s bullshit. It was a Zoom or Teams meeting so there is a recording of it. I would have thought it leaked.
The question is, where did the rumor start? D or R?
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Could be useful to you:
https://evergreensmallbusiness.com/roth-calculator/
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Thanks Mark.
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