Morning Report: Awaiting inflation data this week

Vital Statistics:

Stocks are higher this morning after getting roughed up last week. Bonds and MBS are down.

The week ahead will be dominated by inflation data with the consumer price index on Wednesday and the producer price index on Thursday. We are in the quiet period ahead of the FOMC meeting next week, so there won’t be any Fed speakers.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that the “time has come” to begin cutting rates. “If the data supports cuts at consecutive meetings, then I believe it will be appropriate to cut at consecutive meetings,” Waller said in remarks prepared for delivery at the University of Notre Dame. “If the data suggests the need for larger cuts, then I will support that as well. I was a big advocate of front-loading rate hikes when inflation accelerated in 2022, and I will be an advocate of front-loading rate cuts if that is appropriate.”

New York Fed President John Williams also supports cutting rates: “It is now appropriate to dial down the degree of restrictiveness in the stance of policy by reducing the target range for the federal funds rate,” Williams said, in a speech prepared for delivery to the Council on Foreign Relations.

The base case for next week continues to be 25 basis points. Right now, the Fed Funds futures see a 75% chance of a 25 basis point cut and a 25% chance of a 50 basis point cut. The jobs report showed the labor market is softening, but not deteriorating which means the Fed doesn’t need to move with alacrity.

65 Responses

  1. The fact that they’re pussies is not lost on me.

    Like

  2. Pretty successful career you got there, be a shame if something happened to it.

    Like

  3. You have to admire this.

    It’s the Mona Lisa of spin and hair splitting at the same time.

    Liked by 1 person

  4. My God, how Karine must hate her.

    Like

  5. David French embraces “we’d rather be pure and lose” politics.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/06/opinion/conservatives-election-vote-trump-harris.html

    Like

    • aka a Washington Generals conservative

      I don’t get their focus on abortion anymore. It is rightly a states’ issue. Don’t like abortion? Don’t live in CA then.

      Like

      • French’s argument that the change in the Republican party platform plank is somehow more significant than Trump’s appointment of the Justices who overturned Roe v. Wade and that justifies a vote for Harris is too stupid and absurd to take seriously.

        It’s simply a manifestation of cognitive dissonance over the fact that Trump has delivered for the anti-abortion movement the legal victory that every previous Republican administration failed to achieve and French’s psyche can’t handle that as an anti-abortion Never Trumper.

        Like

        • Vote for Kamala and eliminate the filibuster, enabling the left to expand and stack the court and re-instate RvW.

          Did he really think this through?

          Like

        • French is, IMO, is an evangelical liberal at best a Rockefeller Republican, a hawkish lefty for whom John McCain was often too conservative, but tolerable. The only thing that has him playing at all in the quasi-conservative sandbox is his own self-conceived religiosity, otherwise he’d just fully embrace outright Marxism.

          Like

      • Rightly or wrongly, as a states right issue it’s the best resolution either side can realistically hope for and trying for more turns either side into greedy assholes who will end up shooting themselves in the foot. The time for legs maneuvering is over for the prolife movement except to prevent national pro-abortion legislation—they need to focus on fighting cultural battles or expect to lose ultimately.

        Like

    • I feel like French is just embracing “we’d rather lose, period” politics. Purity doesn’t really seem to be that much of a factors. He just likes to see the right losing.

      Like

  6. I normally like Matt Stoller’s takes, but this is over the top. His own reporting shows that Trump was the one to sign this into law. Biden just made the FDA actually comply.

    How Joe Biden Engineered Apple’s New AirPodsToday, Apple unveiled new AirPods that can function as hearing aids, made possible by Joe Biden’s choice to have the Food and Drug Administration break the incumbent hearing aid cartel.

    Matt Stoller

    Sep 09, 2024

    https://www.thebignewsletter.com/p/how-joe-biden-engineered-apples-new

    Like

    • This is well-known. It was covered a lot at the time. I followed it and was waiting to see what happened. There is zero chance that this would not have to come to pass and maybe sooner under a second Trump admin. Giving the Biden admin any credit for this is kind of bullshit. At least he didn’t kill it, I guess.

      Like

  7. There can be no denying that this has been the most entertaining election in American history.

    Like

  8. Good night for Kamala and Taylor Swift stomps all over it. It resonates with young broads but couldn’t she of waited a day or two?

    Like

  9. I’m interested in what Frank is trying to convey with this Tweet.

    Seriously, what is his message?

    Like

    • Immigrants are better people than native born Americans.

      Like

      • I’ve been AWOL for a while…just catching up.

        jnc:

        Immigrants are better people than native born Americans.

        I will bet $1,000 that quote was taken out of context and edited into the final report to make it seem like that is what he was suggesting. Watch it again. They hid the splice by having the visual jump away from the CEO to a visual of the factory floor, even as they kept the voiceover of the CEO praising the Haitian work ethic. Then, they cut back to the CEO just as he says “And so in general, that’s a stark difference from what we’re used to in our community.” Doing that allows them to hide the fact that the “stark difference” comment was taken from a different part of his interview. I’d bet anything he was talking about something else entirely when he mentioned the “stark difference”. There is no way the CEO was saying what he was presented as saying.

        Like

    • That Haitians are better people than Americans because Americans are fucking Nazis … Vote Democrat!

      Love that there’s no mention of that particular Haitian immigrant is legal or illegal and how the Democrats and left keep using legal immigrants and even second generation natural born citizens of legal immigrants (who are now legal citizens) INTERCHANGEABLY with criminals hear illegally as if they are the exact same kinds of people and there’s no difference at all. The left can literally make no distinctions at all between people—except for between a great mass of “all good people and evil white straight males who vote Republican”.

      Like

  10. Didn’t know about this previously:

    https://www.racket.news/p/a-phony-story-about-ducks

    Like

  11. Yes, he totally wants her to win.

    Like

  12. I’m fascinated with this statement.

    . The entire Trump presidency induced mass anxiety on the public, no policy statement can change that.”

    https://news.yahoo.com/news/democrats-frustrated-poll-showing-voters-211829460.html

    This appears to be a real issue for Trump opponents.

    Like

    • Almost there:

      “This may be the first question posed to me during my six years for which I don’t have an immediate response, because it seems so incongruent with what I think to be reality,” said Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.).

      Like

    • I would bet that if the safety part of leftism appeals to someone, it is likely they are neurotic and probably on anti-anxiety meds.

      Leftism ultimately appeals to women and weak men.

      Like

      • There was a survey a while back in the NY Times showing that the rise of single woman households corresponded to support for more government programs (ex child care, health care etc) as they were replacing what used to be done by extended families.

        Like

  13. Agree or disagree with him, this is a pretty good interview with Alejandro Mayorkas.

    The Real ‘Border Czar’ Defends the Biden-Harris Record

    Sept. 13, 2024, 5:03 a.m. ET

    By Ezra Klein

    https://archive.ph/ows1W

    Like

  14. This seems like a reflection of how much adult supervision teens have regarding hooch and dope. Smoking is more aligned with whether parents smoke and how accessible cigarettes are.

    https://x.com/stats_feed/status/1834933108803555395?s=46&t=vSGsUlnc4rLxcUf7zfUiHg

    I’m not sure the drop is such a good thing insofar as I think kids need mechanisms to differentiate themselves from their parents. Also, it seems a sign of a lack of risk taking. I don’t think kids are any smarter, they’re more afraid of taking risks.

    Like

  15. In the spirit of tolerance and a desire to end xenophobia, I killed my neighbors cat and ate it.

    Voulez Vous coucher avec moi.

    Like

  16. lol

    Like

  17. Apparently, Trump is making people try to assassinate him.

    I hate it when he makes people shoot him.

    Like

  18. Heh

    Like

  19. Totally on Trump.

    It’s a known, known.

    Like

  20. I’m glad someone finally had the courage to say it.

    Plus, it’s not like he got a shot off. No harm, no foul!

    Like

Be kind, show respect, and all will be right with the world.