Morning Report: New Home Sales rise

Vital Statistics:

Stocks are higher this morning as we await Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole. Bonds and MBS are down.

Powell is set to speak at 10:00 am this morning. The FOMC minutes indicated that unless something dramatic happens, the Fed is set to cut interest rates at their September meeting. Powell will probably reiterate the Fed’s data-dependent mindset and confirm that a September rate cut is probably in the cards. Note that Kansas City Fed President Tom Harker said the Fed is ready to start cutting on CNBC yesterday. “I think it means this September we need to start a process of moving rates down,” Harker told CNBC’s Steve Liesman during a “Squawk on the Street” interview. Harker said the Fed should ease “methodically and signal well in advance….Right now, I’m not in the camp of 25 or 50. I need to see a couple more weeks of data,” he said.

Existing home sales rose 1.3% in July to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 3.95 million, according to the National Association of Realtors. This snaps a 4 month losing streak which started in March. On a year-over-year basis, sales fell 2.5%. “Despite the modest gain, home sales are still sluggish,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “But consumers are definitely seeing more choices, and affordability is improving due to lower interest rates.”

Total housing inventory rose 0.8% to 1.33 million units, which is up 19.8% compared to a year ago. The median home price rose to $422,600, up 4.2% compared to a year ago.

New Home sales rose by more than expected in July, increasing 10.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 739,000. This is still down about 5.8% compared to last year.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index declined in July. Consumption and housing indicators improved, while production / income, employment, and sales indicators all fell.

The CFNAI is sort of a meta-index which gives a high-level view of the state of the economy. While the numbers don’t indicate recessionary territory, it does show a softening economy.

13 Responses

  1. This is impressive.

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  2. Elect this man!

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  3. my guess is this,

    Is a attempted distraction from this,

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  4. Totally support fully funding NATO!

    Also, might as well just add Russia as well. We’re mirroring their domestic politics.

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  5. Excellent thread on why actually defending Taiwan would be folly.

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