Morning Report: Housing inventory builds as affordability remains a concern.

Vital Statistics:

Stocks are lower as we finish up a turbulent week for markets. Bonds and MBS are up.

Active for-sale inventory rose 36% YOY, according to Realtor.com. The median listing price is down 0.7% YOY, while year-to-date listing prices are flat. Overall, we are getting to a more balanced home market.

The total value of US residential real estate rose to $49.6 trillion, according to research from Redfin. “The value of America’s housing market will likely cross the $50 trillion threshold in the next 12 months as there are not enough homes being listed to push prices down,” said Redfin Economics Research Lead Chen Zhao. “Mortgage rates have started falling, but many potential sellers and buyers are waiting to make a move, meaning we are likely to continue seeing a pattern where prices slowly tick up. That’s great news for the millions of American homeowners who see their equity rising, but first-time buyers are going to keep finding it tough to find an affordable home.”

Affordability continues to be terrible however, according to the Atlanta Fed:

46 Responses

  1. Does anyone doubt this is coming soon?

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    • Only if it comes with a redefinition of “riot” that makes it clear underprivileged people “protest”, not “riot”. And a riot is any gathering of three or more people who are right of center.

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    • I’m now convinced the fake Kamala crowd AI photos were bait for Trump campaign and are performing as intended. It’s now my operating theory the faked AI Kamala rally crowds were released by the Lincoln Project, who are continuing to pimp the Trump-has-lost-it narrative.

      https://x.com/stephenking/status/1822695469891342688?s=46

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      • He could stop making it easy for them.

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        • In all sincerity, aren’t the only people this is influencing those already Very Online? Further, what percentage of the Very Online are actually influenceable?

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        • I think it is limited to Twitter (and really only people who spend a lot of time there).

          The narrative creation in the polling is fascinating right now.

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        • He certainly could but he probably won’t. To be clear I think Trump has not been doing himself any favors. I don’t particularly agree with Vance on a lot of things, but there is no doubt he’s much better at campaigning than Trump.

          It’s unclear what Trump has been doing since Biden got shivved. Trying to actually win definitely isn’t it.

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  2. Good read. I thought it was going to go one way and it surprised me.

    To Save the World, My Mother Abandoned Me

    She cared more about fomenting a socialist revolution than raising her child.

    By Xochitl Gonzalez

    https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2024/09/new-york-socialism-labor-movements/679159/

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  3. Why had Pelosi gone from “Biden should be on Mount Rushmore” to essentially saying Biden is a tard and I forced him out. Is it just pure ego or is there some sort of bombshell coming out of the Biden Admin that’s she’s trying to pre-empt?

    https://redstate.com/bobhoge/2024/08/11/pelosi-dons-tinfoil-hat-suggests-biden-didnt-write-june-letter-claiming-he-was-staying-in-race-n2178003

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  4. We’re about to start seeing more stories about how dumb Americans are.

    https://x.com/cnbc/status/1822981938996515119?s=46&t=vSGsUlnc4rLxcUf7zfUiHg

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  5. Literally shaking right now.

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  6. This fascinates me.

    When has it ever happened before? Anywhere?

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    • Soviet Union? I don’t think it happens here. One might argue the old days of the press covering up political philandering and compromising stories of a certain category, back in the day, is not dissimilar. All the journalists knew JFK was a pussy hound. It’s been my sense the journalists knew that FDR was crippled. So always a little covering for pols and particularly Democrats. But I don’t think it’s ever been quite like this, especially when it comes to smiling and making excuses when a politician refuses to do their job and shmooze with the press—-although Harris apparently provides lots of off-the-record conversations to the press to continue to make critical people feel special.

      I dunno. There is such an incestual relationship between Democrats, the press, and Hollywood—and all three groups have successfully rooted out dissenters and alternative thinkers—that I’m not sure if there’s a direct comparison.

      In any case, the press literally covering for Kamala if she murdered someone in cold blood would not surprise me at this point.

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  7. The “success” comes from the illusion of competence, not actual competence.

    Now that the illusion is exposed, what will happen?

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  8. Who is this published for? No one in DC actually believes that anybody wants to cut spending.

    https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/08/12/congress/preview-of-the-spending-fight-00173600

    So who is this geared for? My theory is that lefty’s think elected Republicans want to cut spending so it’s written as a ghost story for Progressives. Pure entertainment.

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  9. Hoping our troops don’t kill us is not really a plan.

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  10. If anybody knows what it takes to win the State of Texas it’s Beto.

    Take it too the bank.

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  11. Of course this comes out now.

    Hunter Biden Sought State Department Help for Ukrainian Company

    After President Biden dropped his re-election bid, his administration released records showing that while he was vice president, his son solicited U.S. government assistance.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/13/us/politics/hunter-biden-ukrainian-company.html

    Like

  12. This is great:

    Local Carpenter Continues To Spread Disinformation Deemed Harmful By Religious Experts

    Theology · May 1, 2022 · BabylonBee.com

    https://babylonbee.com/news/local-carpenter-continues-to-spread-disinformation-and-teachings-deemed-harmful-by-religious-experts

    Like

  13. No way will this cause prices to become even more unaffordable!

    They’ve finally cracked the code!

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    • Oh my god. Even the lefties on Wall Street have to be saying: oh shit.

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      • Price controls on food is the dumbest economic idea since tariffs on everything. Could we have two worse economic ideas in one election cycle? Hopefully neither idea will ever see the light of day.

        On another note, Tulsi Gabbard, who did mess Harris quite a bit in a 2020 debate IIRC, is helping DJT prep for debate.

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        • Don’t have a lot of faith in DJT right now. So I hope Tulsi can help but so far DJT has been underwhelming. I feel like Vance had been excellent and for all his problems I actually think Tim Walz is a much better candidate than Harris can be (although I don’t doubt he’d love price controls on everything).

          But yeah the pandering from the Harris camp has been terrifying. If it works I can only assume it gets worse going forward.

          Nobody seems to care about actual policy any more, least of all the candidates. Sigh.

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        • KW:

          Nobody seems to care about actual policy any more

          Same was true in 2020. Not caring about policy is pretty much the MO of the Never Trump universe.

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        • I find it’s fairly universal among politicians, at least visible ones and even then … nothing that’s come out of the Biden admin has impressed me in regards to being thoughtful policy (irrespective of whether I agree with it or not). Paul Ryan was interested in policy at least. As a tool for positive governance. Might not have agreed with him but it was not about “owning the Trumpers” or “policy” meant to virtue signal and nothing else.

          Of course given my favorite policies would be ones that pruned the government bureaucracy I’m never likely to be satisfied on the policy front. 😀

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        • KW:

          I find it’s fairly univeral among politicians

          I disagree with that. I think most politicians, especially high profile politicians, actually care quite a bit about policy. Obama, to take just one example, didn’t spend so much political capital enacting Obamacare as a lark. He cared about it. If congressmen didn’t care about policy, it would be much more difficult to predict how they would vote on various pieces of legislation based on what’s in it.

          To me it is largely just Never Trumpers and so-called swing voters who obviously don’t really care about policy. Never Trumpers are self-admittedly singularly focused on the man, to the point of endorsing politicians that explicitly reject policies about which the NT’s have previously claimed to very much care. And it is difficult to see how someone who cared about policy could jump from Obama in one election to Trump in the next and then back to Biden in the next, given the obvious and known differences in policy approaches between them all. So it must be something other than policy driving their votes.

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        • Maybe. I feel like Obama would have signed (and taken credit for) broadly divergent and even completely opposing healthcare policies so long as he could have claimed that he had “solved healthcare” and claimed a great policy accomplishment. But I don’t believe he cared very much at all about what was in it, so long as it was passable, and palatable enough to the liberal elite that it would not be opposed by his cultural class. But the Never Trumpers do take not giving a shit about policy to a whole new level, I will agree on that. I don’t think they care about advancing any kind of policy at all that isn’t directly related to (a) preventing the election of Trump or anyone like him and/or (b) punishing Trump.

          From the people who bemoan how awful it is when politics becomes about a cult of personality.

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        • How do you feel about responsive tariffs? Meaning we levy reciprocal tariffs on countries that tax our products or otherwise restrict our products coming in. Or we levy tariffs for reasons of not conforming to our human rights expectations, for example.

          I feel like tariffs should be part of the toolbox of international trade. Thus not inherently terrible all the time every time. But the goal should be to minimize them on both sides.

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        • Agreed.

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