Morning Report: Weak employment data supports a September rate cut

Vital Statistics:

Stocks are lower this morning as tech continues to sell off. Bonds and MBS are up big on the disappointing jobs report.

The Bank of England cut rates this morning, which is also helping put global sovereign yields lower.

The economy added 114,000 jobs in July, which was below the Street estimate of 180,000. June was revised downward from 206,000 jobs to 179,000. The unemployment rate ticked up from 4.1% to 4.3%. The number of unemployed people ticked up to 352,000.

Average hourly earnings rose 3.6% YOY, and June’s 3.9% number was revised downward to 3.8%.

Overall, this was a disappointing jobs report, and strengthens the case for a September rate cut. The 10 year bond yield moved decisively lower, falling 14 basis points in the immediate aftermath of the report.

The manufacturing economy continues to deteriorate, according to the ISM Manufacturing Index. The index contracted for the fourth month in a row, and 20 out of the last 21 months. Employment contracted by quite a bit, however prices are still rising. “Demand remains subdued, as companies show an unwillingness to invest in capital and inventory due to current federal monetary policy and other conditions. Production execution was down compared to June, likely adding to revenue declines, putting additional pressure on profitability. Suppliers continue to have capacity, with lead times improving and shortages not as severe. Eighty-six percent of manufacturing gross domestic product (GDP) contracted in July, up from 62 percent in June. More concerning: The share of sector GDP registering a composite PMI® calculation at or below 45 percent (a good barometer of overall manufacturing weakness) was 53 percent in July, 39 percentage points higher than the 14 percent reported in June. Notably, all six of the largest manufacturing industries — Machinery; Transportation Equipment; Fabricated Metal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Chemical Products; and Computer & Electronic Products — contracted in July,” says Fiore.

Private residential construction spending fell for the second straight month in June, largely driven by a decline in single family building. We had been seeing a shift in building from multi-family to single family for the past 18 months or so, but now both are declining.

39 Responses

  1. Brent,

    Saw this over at Ace and thought of you. I’m sure you’ve written of this but I’ve missed it or forgotten. I was fascinated by it.

    https://acecomments.mu.nu/?post=410881

    Why do you think this is?

    Like

    • Among other things, rural land ownership also provides the ability to grow food and hunt.

      Like

      • If black property ownership is highest in states like Mississippi, and simultaneously it’s considered one of the poorest states, are we figuring poverty incorrectly? Do official poverty rates only include income and not assets? If you own your house, does your income need to be as high to maintain a lifestyle that’s comfortable?

        Like

        • Population plays a role. Larger black populations in those states. Property value plays a role. A lot of the real property is far cheaper than the cheapest real estate in New York State. Then concentration of wealth. There’s just more assets and cash in NYC than the whole of Mississippi. It offsets the poverty in New York I expect, which is also widespread, only there are no poor people in New York who can afford real property.

          Like

    • I am guessing the land is dirt cheap, which vastly lowers the cost of homeownership.

      Like

  2. Lol

    Like

    • I am mystified that their thinking is so bad, so sloppy, so profoundly biased, so ignorant of the obvious facts on the ground—oh, wait, they are propaganda organs running cover for Democrats, not even actual opinion journals, much less actual news organs. I forgot.

      “Stalin used his complete control of the news media to consolidate his power. Democrats could do the same.”

      Ta-da! I’m journalisming.

      Like

      • So is it BlueAnon’s position that the whole thing was faked?

        Like

        • Either faked or being misrepresented—ie the bullet hit the teleprompter and a little bit of shrapnel got him, but he wasn’t clipped by a bullet. I think it was Joy Reid that implied the secret service and media were complicit in allowing him to stop and take a campaign photo right after the assassination attempt.

          Like

      • Regarding today’s journalists, this observation by JD Vance seems appropriate:

        And what it made me realize is that so much of what drives elite culture is mediocre Millennial journalists who haven’t gotten out of their career what they thought they would.

        https://www.racket.news/p/transcript-america-this-week-august-b6d

        Like

        • He’s probably not wrong. But they also have percolated up through a J-school system that teaches nothing about journalism anymore and rarely took debate classes as students. They don’t understand why you talk to “the other side” or even why you check sources. They don’t understand the idea of applying skepticism to things even when you want them to be true. Most of them actively believe journalism is activism and actual news reportage is a betrayal of their true mission: to change the world. And even when they lose the idealism they don’t lose the terrible work habits and lack of curiosity about actual facts regarding something they are reporting on.

          Like

  3. Sure – why not.

    Like

    • Eh, I’m okay with it. Not going to go anywhere.

      What’s the motivation? Clearly a lot of pola, especially on the left, have a vested interested in propping up Iran and funding their terrorism. Is Graham just posturing or trying to engineer a “fuck you” to all the pols who are clearly getting something from Iran being supported by the US.

      Like

    • I love how the LAT unironically says “no one is at fault”

      Progressivism never fails, it can only be failed.

      Like

  4. Workers of the Left, Unite! You have nothing to lose but your chains!

    Also, dyslexics, untie!

    Like

  5. I laughed.

    Like

    • The left is straight out of 1984 any more.

      Like

    • Serious overreach, the whole program is suspect.

      [I would not expect it to heal itself under a Trump Admin, either, because it is the program itself that invites this BS. Used to be the ACLU would have hopped on a case like this, even for a Nazi, which is not to say Gabbard is a Nazi, but to say that ACLU used to be color blind in its defense of the Bill of Rights].

      Like

      • Unless I see prominent Liberals In Good Standing targeted by mistake, I will go ahead and assume this is yet another weaponized Federal agency persecuting its political opponents.

        Like

      • I’ve often thought that the defense of the Nazi Party’s right to march is Skokie, IL marked the change in how the ACLU got its funding and hence its focus.

        Like

      • Mark:

        Serious overreach

        Yeah. And when Nixon had the IRS audit his political opponents, it was just “overreach” too.

        Like

      • The TSA’s response.

        https://www.racket.news/p/comment-from-the-tsa-on-tulsi-gabbard

        Also, Iran is the new Russia:

        Last Thursday, 22 members of Congress sent a letter to the Biden administration demanding the investigation and criminal prosecution as well as financial ruin of Gaza war protesters, whom they claim have received funding from Iran. “We write today regarding recent revelations that certain anti-Israel organizations in the United States have received funding from the Iranian regime,” the letter begins. The revelation originated in a recent statement by Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines, on top of statements by FBI director Christopher Wray and Deputy Attorney General Lisa Monaco that Iran is trying to influence public opinion.

        The letter goes on to call for the Justice Department “to criminally prosecute and pursue civil forfeiture actions against any individual or entity that violates the law by receiving funding from the Iranian regime.” It ends by urging “the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) and Treasury to make public all available information, without compromising sources and methods, regarding Iran’s funding of these pro-Hamas organizations so that the American people can see who these groups truly are.”

        https://www.kenklippenstein.com/p/harris-vs-the-hecklers

        Like

  6. Pretty impressed that KosKidz are speaking positively about Hitler.

    Aug 07, 2024 at 02:08:44 PM

    Vance is so proud.  Hitler was a corporal too.ReplyRecommend 14

    avatar

    Blank Regina

    Grannus

    Aug 07, 2024 at 02:53:44 PM

    Except that Hitler actually fought and was wounded on the front and was awarded an Iron Cross.ReplyRecommend 1

    https://www.dailykos.com/story/2024/8/7/2261408/-JD-Vance-goes-there-and-accuses-Tim-Walz-of-STOLEN-VALOR#comment_89313158

    Like

  7. Thank God someone finally has the courage to say it.

    Like

Leave a reply to jnc4p Cancel reply