Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Arcanaut
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
Stocks are lower despite a good CPI print. Bonds and MBS are up.
Inflation fell 0.1% MOM and 3.0% year-over-year. The Street was expecting an increase of 0.1%, so this was a good surprise for the bond market. Energy prices fell overall, which was offset by increases in shelter. Used Car prices were down 10% on a year-over-year basis.
If you strip out food and energy, prices rose 0.1% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year. This was again below expectations. The bond market reacted positively to the report, with the 10 year yield falling over 10 basis points to below 4.2%.
The September Fed Funds futures now see a 80% chance of a rate cut at the September meeting.
Over the past year, we have seen a lot of eye-popping payroll gains, which get revised downward in later months. The average downward revision this year has been 50,000 per month. The typical headline number has been around 275k, so this is a pretty big downward revision. What is going on?
The explanation may be that the numbers are less reliable due to lower response rates. The government estimates payroll growth by sending out questionnaires to businesses who report how many people they hired during the month. It goes out to some 600,000 businesses nationwide.
The response rate fell to a 21 year low in 2023, and has fallen even more this year. If less businesses respond to the survey, the less accurate it is. And with the big downward revisions, the labor market might be worse off than it initially appears.
One recent phenomenon has been the posting of “ghost jobs” which are job listings where the company really doesn’t intend to hire any one. They are there for HR window dressing and resume collection, but they don’t represent real hiring needs. If this behavior is affecting the JOLTs job openings number, then that is another employment statistic that is hiding a broader deterioration in the labor market.
Filed under: Economy |
All Things in Moderation 
This made me laugh.
LikeLike
I see the left has transitioned from Operation Christian Nationalism to Operation Project 2025.
FWIW, I think Operation Project 2025 exists only on Twitter.
LikeLike
One good thing Project 2025 advocates is for the return of smoking on airplanes.
LikeLike
https://x.com/seanmdav/status/1811772938149908942?s=46&t=vSGsUlnc4rLxcUf7zfUiHg
LikeLike
Bring back the 18 year old drinking age. You are old enough to die for your country, you are old enough for a beer.
LikeLike
Ditto smoking in public places like bars and restaurants! There is zero evidence second-hand smoke causes cancer.
LikeLike
There is zero evidence second-hand smoke causes cancer.
The Clinton Admin relaxed the confidence intervals to push the ban through. Basically lowered the bar for statistical significance.
Wonder what it is for vaping though? Betting Bupkis.
LikeLike
Brent:
The Clinton Admin relaxed the confidence intervals to push the ban through. Basically lowered the bar for statistical significance.
I had no idea about that. I’m ashamed I didn’t even suspect it.
LikeLike
They need it as Trump has toned down the official Republican platform on things like abortion and gay marriage.
LikeLike
The thing is, Trump hasn’t endorsed it, and I am sure I can cherry pick a bunch of idiotic stuff from the D Party Platform too.
LikeLike
someone tried to shoot Trump at a PA rally. He was whisked out and had blood above his right ear. Was alive and raising his fist.
https://x.com/tuckercarlson/status/1812253182556307596?s=46&t=vSGsUlnc4rLxcUf7zfUiHg
LikeLike
Guess you were right.
LikeLike
Eye witness account:
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/trump-rally-shooting-live-updates.html#eyewitness-describes-seeing-shooter-set-up-and-carry-out-attack
LikeLike
Fucking Trump.
LikeLike
That is Left Wing Twitter right now.
LikeLike
I have to admit I’m having a hard time squaring the circle of “Trump is Hitler but I wish him a speedy recovery and political violence has no place in this country.”
https://x.com/joebiden/status/1806745000971296833?s=46&t=vSGsUlnc4rLxcUf7zfUiHg
https://x.com/potus/status/1812275407044940079?s=46&t=vSGsUlnc4rLxcUf7zfUiHg
LikeLike
Popehat is really covering himself in glory.
LikeLike
And not backing down today either. Well, I sort of respect that more than the people trying to have it both ways.
LikeLike
jnc:
Well, I sort of respect that more than the people trying to have it both ways.
I totally agree. At least the people who are saying they wish the shooter had better aim are being honest.
LikeLike
So the left’s narrative is that a white Republican tried to assassinate Trump. And it is Trump’s fault because of his rhetoric.
And any Republican that votes against gun control is a hypocrite.
LikeLike
Taibbi’s latest:
LikeLike
And by the end of the week it will be back to Trump is Hitler.
LikeLike
Impressive appropriation:
https://meme.aho.st/fight/
LikeLike
This made me laugh.
LikeLike
Won’t someone spare a thought for the real victims here – journalists like Jen Psaki
LikeLike
Reading the reports of Biden’s speech I’m reminded of how John McCain responded to rhetoric that got heated during his 2008 campaign by challenging his own supporters and defending Obama.
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/8/25/17782572/john-mccain-barack-obama-statement-2008-video
https://www.politico.com/story/2008/10/mccain-obama-not-an-arab-crowd-boos-014479
Meanwhile Biden goes with a generalization: ‘It’s time to cool it down’.
If Biden meant what he said, he would address his own supporters and say that Trump is not a fascist, this won’t be the last election in the United States and he’s not a unique danger to democracy.
But he won’t, because that would undermine their entire campaign strategy of making Trump an unacceptable choice.
LikeLike
The left is so invested in the Trump is Literally. Hitler. idea they can’t backtrack now.
LikeLike
What else do they have to campaign on? They will revert to norm no later than Thursday.
LikeLike
jnc:
But he won’t, because that would undermine their entire campaign strategy of making Trump an unacceptable choice.
Yep. As I suggested on substack yesterday, they can’t really reconcile their campaign rhetoric with their post-shooting rhetoric. Either one or the other is disingenuous. Or both are disingenuous, which is what I actually suspect. They know that Trump is not the threat that they have been trying to make him out to be, but they also probably would love to see him taken out. And politically they can’t say either of those things.
LikeLike
Smith’s classifed documents case against Trump has been dismissed by the judge….says the special counsel appointment was unconstitutional.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/15/politics/classified-documents-case-trump-dismissed-aileen-cannon
LikeLike
Need to read it, but how was this special counsel different from all the previous ones?
LikeLike
I believe all other Special Counsels have been drawn from existing, Senate confirmed AGs. Smith was not.
LikeLike
jnc:
Need to read it, but how was this special counsel different from all the previous ones?
I am reading the ruling right now, trying to find out.
LikeLike
jnc:
how was this special counsel different from all the previous ones?
Seems like the same argument being made against Smith’s appointment was made against Mueller’s appointment. I suppose since Mueller never brought charges against Trump, it never made it to court.
https://archive.ph/GDcM9
LikeLike
Would Starr not qualify because he was appointed under the old Independent Counsel statute that was allowed to expire?
Also, does this mean the appointment for the Hunter Biden case is invalid as well?
LikeLike
jnc:
Would Starr not qualify because he was appointed under the old Independent Counsel statute that was allowed to expire?
Correct, Starr was appointed under a law that no longe exists. It expired in, I think, 1999, and was never re-implemented by congress.
Also, does this mean the appointment for the Hunter Biden case is invalid as well?
No. David Weiss was an acting US Attorney when he was appointed. He had been nominated by the president, and confirmed by the Senate, so he is not the same as Smith. Smith was appointed from outside the US governemnt.
LikeLike
Ahh so that’s the issue. They could just replace Smith with a US Attorney then?
LikeLike
jnc:
Ahh so that’s the issue. They could just replace Smith with a US Attorney then?
Yeah, I think that is correct.
LikeLike
Makes sense when you think about it in those terms. You can’t just grab somebody off the street and make them the equivalent of a super US Attorney with no confirmation process.
LikeLike
The left is not taking this well
LikeLike
I suspect the odds of another hit attempt on Trump just doubled.
LikeLike
You aint kidding.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/7/15/2254391/-Federal-judge-dismisses-Trump-classified-documents-case?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_1&pm_medium=web
LikeLike
Florida case tossed due to
illegal apt of Jack Smith.
LikeLike
Corked you!
LikeLike
Dayum!
LikeLike
Interview with Trump.
https://nypost.com/2024/07/14/us-news/grateful-defiant-trump-recounts-surreal-assassination-attempt-at-rally-im-supposed-to-be-dead/
LikeLike
I wonder what censorship orders have been promulgated to social media in the aftermath of the assassination attempt
LikeLike
Another good NYT focus group:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/07/15/opinion/focus-group-black-men-trump-voters.html
LikeLike
That was fascinating. I’m always really suspicious of focus groups, very anecdotal, questionable representation towards the norm. That said, it reinforces in me the belief that people are more than two-dimensional, that everyone is interesting and that more often than not reach rational conclusions considering their history and socialization.
LikeLike
I think the NYT focus groups are some of the best pieces on the NYT. They are actually run by a Republican pollster, Kristen Soltis Anderson.
LikeLike
Interesting, Trump picked Vance as VP.
LikeLike
That isn’t too surprising, is it?
LikeLike
I honestly thought the big donors would require Youngkin or at the outside, Bertram, leaving the door open for Rubio and or Youngkin in 2028.
LikeLike
Edit: Burgrum.
LikeLike
BTW…I keep hearing people say that the shooter was armed with an “AR style” rifle. WTF does that mean? Isn’t AR an actual brand of gun? If it was an AR, say it was an AR. If it wasn’t, tell us what it actually was. It’s like saying “The car accident involved a Corvette style car.” WTF.
LikeLike
AR stands for Armalite, the originator of the M-16. The AR-15 is the civilian (semi-auto). So, in a weird way it is like saying a Corvette Style car. It’s a modular design and the most popular style of rifle in the country. Lefty’s weird the term like some sort of talisman. It’s their severed chicken foot.
LikeLike
I was hoping he would pick Tulsi Gabbard.
LikeLike
The thing is she’s a lefty at heart and while she maybe has broadened her mind, my guess is Trump feels/felt that in the end she’s an opportunist.
LikeLike
And Vance isn’t?
LikeLike
Absolutley! Hell, they all are but in the end his default is Republican whereas she’s a lefty at heart. Gabbard is moderating to appeal to MAGA whereas Vance doesn’t have to. Hope that makes sense.
Interesting that Vance had said Trump is Hitler back in 2015/16 time frame so “opportunist” may apply doubly to Vance. But his default positing is MAGA.
Hope that makes sense. I was hoping for Vance
LikeLike
jnc:
I was hoping he would pick Tulsi Gabbard.
Me too.
LikeLike
Really? Why so?
LikeLike
He might have won 40 states with her on the ticket. I generally think VP picks don’t matter much, but I do think she could appeal to an audience that Trump otherwise has no way of getting.
LikeLike
What leads you to believe that?
LikeLike
Intuition.
LikeLike
Fair enough. I just never got any groundswell vibe for Gabbard. That said, she is hawt and MILFy sexy, so there’s that.
I suppose Kennedy would have attracted a larger cohort of the disaffected voter but he’s a Gaia freak and it’s tough for me to get past that.
Vance really animates the base and that’s who Trump needs for the vote integrity and voter outreach.
Plus, he was an enlisted Marine. I know I keep harping on that but it really does influence me. John McCain’s only saving grace for me, aside for choosing Sarah Palin, was that his son was an enlisted Marine and served in Iraq. Ditto Palin’s son.
Finally, I really, really dig white trash. I know that sounds sarcastic but I’m being 100% sincere. It’s the redneck cohort that James Webb wrote about.
LikeLike
BTW, did you guys see the Denver Post from yesterday? It is so over the top that I actually had to reach out to people I know in Denver to confirm it was real. I thought it might be photoshopped. They both sent me separate pictures of their own, confirming it was accurate.
https://twitter.com/EndWokeness/status/1812516976021127449?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Apart from the ridiculous headline, look closely at the small red print just above it. It says “Trump says he was shot in ear”.
Trump says, like it might not be true.
LikeLike
I really don’t think the gun is the key issue here Washington Post.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2024/07/15/thomas-crooks-trump-assassination-investigation/
LikeLike
It is an evergreen solution for the left.
LikeLike
Worth a reread:
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/13/opinion/jd-vance-interview.html
LikeLike
Dude was enlisted. Granted, he was in the Airwing, which isn’t technically part of the Marine Corp
LikeLike
How does Holt know she doesn’t identify as a he!
https://x.com/Bobby_LaVallley/status/1813025410982289507
LikeLike