Morning Report: Big week of data ahead

Posted on July 8, 2024 by Brent Nyitray

Vital Statistics:

Stocks are flattish as we head into earnings season. Bonds and MBS are up small.

The week ahead will have some important events, with Jerome Powell heading to the Hill on Tuesday and Wednesday for his semi-annual Humphrey-Hawkins testimony. We will get the consumer price index on Thursday, and earnings season kicks off with the big banks reporting on Friday.

We are seeing for-sale inventory build, however we are still below pre-pandemic levels, according to research from Realtor.com. For-sale inventory rose 35% on a year-over-year basis, however median prices were flat. This might represent a mix shift, as prices rose on price per square foot basis.

While inventory is up 35% YOY, it is still about 35% below 2019 levels. Inventory is getting closer to balance in the South and West, where we saw a building boom over the past few years. Regions which saw muted growth post-2008 (lots of the Northeast and Midwest) are now catching up to the rest of the country.

Mark Zandi has come out in favor of rate cuts.

It’s time for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. That’s the
message in today’s jobs report for June. Unemployment while still low is steadily notching higher. Job and wage growth while still strong are steadily moderating. The Fed has met its full employment mandate.…
— Mark Zandi (@Markzandi) July 5, 2024

While the Fed Funds futures are seeing no move at the July 31 meeting, they are handicapping a 74% chance of a rate cut

Filed under: Economy |

13 Responses

jnc4p, on July 8, 2024 at 11:45 am said:

Game on:

Biden dares Democrats to ‘run against me,’ challenge him at convention

July 8, 2024 at 12:40 p.m. EDT

President Biden, in a surprise phone interview on MSNBC on Monday morning, said he’s frustrated by the discussion about his fitness and the calls for him to step aside. “Any of these guys that don’t think I should run, run against me. Announce for president, challenge me at the convention,” he said. Biden also sent a letter to his party’s lawmakers in Congress on Monday, insisting that he would stay in the race and calling for an end to the drama within the Democratic Party. The letter comes amid rising calls from within his party for him to step aside after his poor debate performance.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/07/08/election-2024-campaign-updates/

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- Brent Nyitray, on July 8, 2024 at 11:46 am said:
  
  In other words, the democrats have a semi trailer full of mail-in ballots.
  
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  - jnc4p, on July 8, 2024 at 6:01 pm said:
    
    This feels weird to write, but the more Biden says “Fuck You” to the Democratic party establishment and the media, the more I’m starting to like him.
    
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    - ScottC, on July 8, 2024 at 10:26 pm said:
      
      jnc:
      
      This feels weird to write, but the more Biden says “Fuck You” to the Democratic party establishment and the media, the more I’m starting to like him.
      
      Didn’t Trump do essentially the same thing in 2016?
      
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    - jnc4p, on July 9, 2024 at 8:58 am said:
      
      Yes.
      
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Let the mutherfuker burn!, on July 8, 2024 at 9:12 pm said:

Absolute perfection.

Going forward, I hope the media scrutinizes and fact-checks Donald Trump with the same vigor and enthusiasm they are with President Biden.

— Kurt Bardella (@kurtbardella) July 8, 2024

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- Brent Nyitray, on July 9, 2024 at 8:05 am said:
  
  It is so funny watching the media’s reaction after they got busted gaslighting everyone over Biden’s condition over the past several years.
  
  …..your winnings, sir.
  
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jnc4p, on July 9, 2024 at 1:08 pm said:

Love the framing:

Electing Poverty

Visualizing the inexorable decline of the UK through the lens of energy.

Doomberg

Jul 09, 2024

https://newsletter.doomberg.com/p/electing-poverty

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Let the mutherfuker burn!, on July 9, 2024 at 4:52 pm said:

I think Biden’s gonna hang on.

Watching the media perform another 180 will be glorious! We have always been at war with Eastasia!

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jnc4p, on July 10, 2024 at 6:06 pm said:

Good read.

Trump Is Planning for a Landslide Win

And his campaign is all but praying Joe Biden doesn’t drop out.

By Tim Alberta

July 10, 2024, 4:08 PM ET

…

For an hour and 15 minutes, Wiles and LaCivita presented their vision for retaking the White House. They detailed a new approach to targeting and turning out voters, one that departs dramatically from recent Republican presidential campaigns, suggesting that suburban women might be less a priority than young men of color. They justified their plans for a smaller, nimbler organization than Biden’s reelection behemoth by pointing to a shrunken electoral map of just seven swing states that, by June, they had narrowed to four. And they alleged that the Republican National Committee—which, in the days that followed our interview, would come entirely under Trump’s control—had lost their candidate the last election by relying on faulty data and botching its field program.

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/07/trump-campain-election-2024-susie-wiles-chris-lacivita/678806/

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- jnc4p, on July 10, 2024 at 6:38 pm said:
  
  They aren’t fucking around this time, but I’m not sure what the upside is of telling this to an Atlantic reporter. Maybe to demoralize the Democrats?
  
  In Florida, Wiles claims, she had discovered that there were roughly a million Trump supporters who had no history of engagement with the state party apparatus. And yet these people, when contacted by the GOP in 2016 and 2020, would sometimes become Trump’s most devoted volunteers. Wiles believed the same thing was possible in Iowa. So did LaCivita. This didn’t exactly represent a bet-the-house risk; Trump was always going to be favored against a big, fractured field, in Iowa and beyond. Still, Wiles and LaCivita saw in the opening act of the 2024 primary a chance to pressure-test a theory that could prove crucial later in the year.
  
  Scouring precinct-level statistics from the four previous times Trump had competed in Iowa—the primary and general elections in 2016 and 2020—they isolated the most MAGA-friendly pockets of the state. Then, comparing data they’d collected from those areas against the state’s voter file, LaCivita and Wiles found what they were looking for: Some 8,000 of those Iowans they identified as pro-Trump—people who, over the previous seven or eight years, had engaged with Trump’s campaign either physically, digitally, or through the mail—were not even registered to vote. Thousands more who were registered to vote had never participated in a caucus. These were the people who, if converted from sympathizers to supporters, could power Trump’s organization.
  
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Let the mutherfuker burn!, on July 10, 2024 at 11:02 pm said:

I thought Trump was supposed to be the unstable one with thin skin.

Biden is fighting back on Clooney.

From a source familiar with event planning: “The President stayed for over 3 hours, while Clooney took a photo quickly and left.”

— Annie Karni (@anniekarni) July 10, 2024

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Let the mutherfuker burn!, on July 11, 2024 at 8:34 pm said:

https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/giant-phallus-shaped-iceberg-floating-in-conception-bay-surprises-residents-of-dildo-canada

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