Morning Report: Employment costs accelerate

Vital Statistics;

Stocks are lower this morning as the May FOMC meeting begins. Bonds and MBS are up.

Fed-whisperer Nick Timaros of the Wall Street Journal says the Fed is planning to signal to the markets that it is comfortable keeping rates higher for longer, while stopping short of introducing the possibility of raising rates further.

“Firmer-than-anticipated inflation in the first three months of the year has likely postponed rate cuts for the foreseeable future. As a result, officials are likely to emphasize that they are prepared to hold rates steady, at a level most of them expect will provide meaningful restraint to economic activity, for longer than they previously anticipated.”

“But a hawkish pivot, suggesting an increase in rates is more likely than a cut, appears unlikely, for now. Any such shift is likely to unfold over a longer period. It would require some combination of a new, nasty supply shock such as a significant increase in commodity prices; signs that wage growth was reaccelerating; and evidence the public was anticipating higher inflation to continue well into the future.”

The article suggests the Fed is close to tapering its balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) by reducing the runoff of its Treasury securities. In other words, this won’t affect mortgage backed securities. The runoff for mortgage backed securities continues, albeit at an organic pace driven by relocation and a few cash-out refis.

Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 1.2% in the first quarter, according to the Employment Cost Index. Wages increased 1.1%, as did benefit costs. For the past 12 months, compensation costs rose 4.8%. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, compensation costs rose from 0.9% to 1.2%, driven largely by an increase in benefit costs. Note this kind of contradicts the CPI data which claims that health insurance costs fell 15% in March.

53 Responses

  1. Another actual journalist decides he can’t put up with the BS anymore.

    https://www.kenklippenstein.com/p/why-im-resigning-from-the-intercept

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    • “This isn’t the CIA!” Bill yelled, calling Mazurov a fucking idiot. 

      “That’s an HR violation!” Mazurov shrieked.

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      • Along that vein:

        WHERE ARE THE NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATES?

        Congress just passed an enormous aid package for wars in Ukraine and Gaza, but the White House is ignoring news it does not want to hear

        Seymour Hersh

        Apr 30, 2024

        The White House’s apparent lack of interest in the most difficult foreign policy issues—as the president focuses on re-election—has bewildered some veterans of the intelligence community. “The Biden Administration is wandering in the wilderness,” I was told by an American intelligence official. “They speak publicly and daily of their objectives. Victory in Ukraine and the war in Gaza. Resolve the Palestinian quandary. Checkmate Xi. Defend Taiwan. Strengthen NATO. Restore our economic strength and limit global climate change.

        “Noble,” he said. “But glittering generalities. Each is a title to a needed NIE that does not exist nor has been undertaken. Where is the National Intelligence Council and our stable of the nation’s greatest experts on every issue? Producing unread and irrelevant products” on such issues as UFOs and DEI [diversity, equity, and inclusion] in the community. No products on the capabilities and intentions of world leaders and the countries that are the keystone of policy development and implementation.”

        https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/where-are-the-national-intelligence

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        • I’m a little bewildered by Hersch taking the side of the IC.

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        • Having subscribed to his Substack, I find he doesn’t resemble the caricature of him that’s portrayed in the MSM.

          It’s a good observation though for those of us who remember how the NIE on Iraq was obsessed over during the Bush administration.

          Biden can’t even be bothered to request one.

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  2. This is an update from the New York Post on the Trump hush money trial,

    ‘Trump is f—d,’ Stormy Daniels’ lawyer texted Enquirer editor after ‘Access Hollywood’ tape emerged
    By Ben Kochman
    After news broke in October 2016 of Donald Trump bragging on a hot mic about grabbing women by their genitals, Stormy Daniels’ lawyer texted “Trump is f—d” to the editor of the National Enquirer, trial evidence released Tuesday shows.

    “Wave the white flag. It’s over people!” responded the Enquirer’s editor, Dylan Howard, evidence shows.

    But Daniels’ attorney, Keith Davidson, noted in another text that things “could get a lot worse” for Trump if Daniels went public right before the 2016 election with her claim about having a one-night affair with the married real estate mogul, he testified.

    Sounds like a shakedown. The DA is counting on a jury that is ok with that.

    https://nypost.com/2024/04/30/us-news/trump-hush-money-nyc-trial-live-updates-photos-news-analysis/

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    • Which is also supported by the other stories that everyone admits weren’t true that they also paid to suppress.

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  3. Viva La Revolucion

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    • I didn’t LOL. Her appearance reminds me of one of the Israeli festival goers, Shani Louk, who was killed and shown on online media in the back of the truck being carried away by Hamas millitants.

      https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/30/middleeast/shani-louk-dead-israel-intl/index.html

      And I’m confident that had the ‘Free Palestine’ Protester been at the music festival, she would have been killed too.

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      • I understand what you’ve written. Sadly, the protestors will say the the pale’s didn’t do it and in fact is was the IDF that did it.

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        • True, and they would still be just as dead had they been at the festival, all the while believing that.

          This is an interesting piece on war:

          “Fighting Monsters
          CJ Hopkins
          Apr 28, 2024

          What’s my point? Well, my point is … that is war. Indiscriminate killing. Rape. Mass atrocities. That’s what war is. That is what it has always been. And we’ve been doing it to each other since the dawn of civilization. It is not going to stop. We are not going to stop it. Art is certainly not going to stop it. We are, whether we like it or not, a violent species, human beings. It isn’t all we are, but it is part of what we are. We are also lovers, teachers, healers, artists, and other beautiful things. But sometimes we are vicious killers. Monsters. Genocidal monsters.

          A crazy old German philosopher once warned us, “beware that, when fighting monsters, you yourself do not become a monster.” He was joking, of course. There are no monsters. Or, rather, there are only monsters, on every side of every war. In a war, there are no good guys and bad guys. There is just our side and the other side. Our atrocities and their atrocities. And whoever wins gets to write the history.

          That’s it. The rest is propaganda. Their propaganda and our propaganda. Of course, our propaganda is not propaganda. Our propaganda is just the truth. Because we’re not monsters. They are the monsters.”

          https://cjhopkins.substack.com/p/fighting-monsters

          “There is just our side and the other side.” strikes me as the correct understanding of what’s going on in Gaza. And I know that if I was physically there Hamas would be trying to kill me and the IDF would be the only ones trying to save my ass. And I don’t have my head so far up my own ass that I’m going to take the side of the people trying to kill me.

          That perspective seems to be missing from the protesters today who advocate for an outcome that they won’t have to actually live under.

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  4. Interesting read:

    For a growing percentage of young men, Cox wrote:

    Feminism has less to do with promoting gender equality and more to do with simply attacking men. A 2022 survey by the Southern Poverty Law Center found that 46 percent of Democratic men under 50 agreed that feminism has done more harm than good and even more Republican men agreed.

    More young men, he added, “are adopting a zero-sum view of gender equality — if women gain, men will inevitably lose.”

    How does this translate into politics?

    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/01/opinion/biden-younger-voters-gender.html

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    • Feminism is the North Star for the democrat party. Why any self-respecting straight dude would vote democrat is beyond me.

      Note that single men, married men, and married women skew slightly R. Single women skew heavily D.

      Which explains why student loan forgiveness is such a big issue. Single women owe the vast majority of student debt.

      Also:

      “It was always the women, and above all the young ones, who were the most bigoted adherents of the Party, the swallowers of slogans, the amateur spies and nosers−out of unorthodoxy.”

      1984

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  5. What makes me laugh is the knowledge the the Libertarian POTUS/VPOTUS candidates will still end up endorsing Biden.

    https://redstate.com/benkew/2024/05/01/the-libertarian-party-just-announced-a-surprise-speaker-for-its-convention-n2173615

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  6. Some of Biden’s best friends are Xenophobic bigots on par with Russia and China.

    https://redstate.com/nick-arama/2024/05/02/biden-just-creates-international-incident-with-comment-insulting-japan-n2173638

    Dude’s a foreign policy giant.

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  7. I laughed.

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  8. Excellent read. The full transcript of the Time interview with Trump. Note how many times they try to goad him into saying that the US military will be used for deportations and how many times he has to correct them by saying he’s referring to the national guard.

    https://time.com/6972022/donald-trump-transcript-2024-election/

    What also comes across is that in a lengthy sit down interview with a MSM journalist, he can hold his own and make his points. I can’t imagine Biden doing this level of interview.

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  9. Still the greatest tweet of all time.

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  10. This is good:

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  11. Hi. Just wanted to pop in and say hi. Been lurking a bit.

    Just been slammed. Wife is doing well, but work got busy. I’ve been doing my job and my direct report’s. Got tired of that, so he’s gone.  

    anyway. hope you all are doing well. 

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  12. Noted expert on corporate accounting in NY State Stormy Daniels testifies.

    https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/05/07/nyregion/trump-trial-hush-money-stormy-daniels

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    • I think Biden changed the reporting requirements so that cities are relieved from having to report crime to the Fed, or at least certain crimes.

      That is the scam they are pulling Gives them the result they want, and partisans can claim crime is down.

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      • I also think murder isn’t the same as all crime.

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        • Reminds me when NYC stopped going after ticket scalpers outside MSG and Yankee stadium and then claimed a huge improvement in crime

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  13. I weep, WEEP! for these soon to be martyrs. Bobby Sands only dreamt of this kind of commitment.

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  14. Lol!

    I guess smartphones don’t count?

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  15. I read the tweet thread yesterday and honestly thought it was a parody.

    it’s real and it’s spectacular!

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  16. Heresy:

    It’s also true that Trump could win this election in a popular vote. Given that Trump’s not in office, it will probably be fair. And there’s a very good chance, based on our polling and other independent polling, that he will win that election in a popular vote. So there are people out there in the world who may decide, based on their democratic rights, to elect Donald Trump as president. It is not the job of the news media to prevent that from happening. It’s the job of Biden and the people around Biden to prevent that from happening.

    https://www.semafor.com/article/05/05/2024/joe-kahn-the-newsroom-is-not-a-safe-space

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    • The fact that he is most proud of the NYT’s reporting on Britney Griner – someone who really matters mainly to the activist sports reporter and a slap in the face to anyone who has ever served in the military – says it all.

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    • jnc:

      ”Given that Trump’s not in office, it will probably be fair.”

      Apparently he is unfamiliar with who runs elections in the US, which is neither the president nor the federal executive branch. What a clown.

      Also, he says this:

      ”To say that the threats of democracy are so great that the media is going to abandon its central role as a source of impartial information to help people vote — that’s essentially saying that the news media should become a propaganda arm for a single candidate”

      Is he not aware that that is precisely what the media explicitly did in 2016 when Trump got elected?

      Like

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