Morning Report: Insurance rates are on the rise

Vital Statistics:

Stocks are higher this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are down.

The week ahead will be data-light, as is typical in the week after the jobs report. The most important number will be the consumer price index report on Thursday. Q4 earnings season kicks off Friday with earnings from the big banks.

Losses in commercial real estate will be a focus, especially with vacancies in office properties hitting record levels going back to the 1970s.

According to BLS, the economy created about 2.7 million jobs in 2023. The initial estimates were just over 3 million, so we had 329,000 downward revisions in payrolls throughout the year, not counting December, which we won’t get until later this year.

Home and auto insurance rates are going up and insurers are threatening to pull out of states that don’t permit them to increase rates to cover rising costs. The costs of natural disasters are going up, especially in states like California and coastal states with hurricane risk. This will have the effect of pushing up mortgage payments for those who escrow, making the affordability issue even worse. Some states like California risk becoming insurance deserts where nobody wants to do business. Note that most states have a commission which tells insurance companies how much they are permitted to charge. If the regulators drive too hard of a bargain, the insurance companies can choose to stop doing business in those states.

Asking rents declined0.8% YOY in December, according to data from Redfin. “High supply—more so than low demand—is driving rent declines. But if mortgage rates continue to drop at a fast clip in 2024, slowing rental demand could become a major driver of rent declines,” said Redfin Economics Research Lead Chen Zhao. “That’s because more Americans would ditch the rental market to become homeowners, leaving landlords with even more vacancies.”

Vacancy rates are climbing back after their post pandemic lows. The US has a record number of multi-family units under construction, so more supply is on the way.

17 Responses

  1. Site seems to have reverted to the new commenting system again.

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  2. Shit hits fan:

    “Filing alleges ‘improper’ relationship between Fulton DA, top Trump prosecutor

    Fani Willis hired alleged romantic partner as special prosecutor, court motion says

    By Bill Rankin and Tamar Hallerman

    District Attorney Fani Willis improperly hired an alleged romantic partner to prosecute Donald Trump and financially benefited from their relationship, according to a court motion filed Monday which argued the criminal charges in the case were unconstitutional.

    The bombshell public filing alleged that special prosecutor Nathan Wade, a private attorney, paid for lavish vacations he took with Willis using the Fulton County funds his law firm received. County records show that Wade, who has played a prominent role in the election interference case, has been paid nearly $654,000 in legal fees since January 2022. The DA authorizes his compensation.

    The motion, filed on behalf of defendant Michael Roman, a former Trump campaign official, seeks to have the charges against Roman dismissed and for Willis, Wadeand the entire DA’s office to be disqualified from further prosecution of the case.”

    https://www.ajc.com/politics/breaking-filing-alleges-improper-relationship-between-fulton-da-top-trump-prosecutor/A2N2OWCM7FFWJBQH2ORAK2BKMQ/

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  3. This is almost self parody:

    “Are $18 Big Macs the price of falling inequality?

    Even socialists are bristling at the rising cost of fast food. 

    By Eric Levitz

    Jan 9, 2024, 6:00am EST”

    https://www.vox.com/politics/2024/1/9/24027094/fast-food-prices-wages-mcdonalds

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  4. I assumed that Mike Roman’s lawyer, who filed a motion to dismiss his charges based on innappropriate behavior re Willis and Wade, had a person on the inside of Willis’s office – turns out it was the soon to be ex-Mrs. Wade that is helping! That’s why they had so much detail.

    https://www.wsj.com/us-news/law/fani-willis-prosecutor-in-trump-georgia-case-subpoenaed-to-testify-in-colleagues-divorce-c8e3fda5?mod=djemalertNEWS

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  5. How is it possible that the AG can put whatever title he wants on a petition to get a referendum on the ballot?

    https://www.dailywire.com/news/parent-group-sues-california-dem-ag-over-how-he-described-their-transgender-ballot-initiative

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    • Depends on what the state law is here I would presume.

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      • But doesn’t it seem crazy that the law would allow that? I mean it obviously invites precisely what seems to have happened….if the AG doesn’t like it, he just puts a crazy sounding title on it to discourage anyone from signing it. Seems totally nuts to me.

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        • Sure, but the law typically assumes public officials will act in good faith when executing their duties. That faith is proving to be more and more misplaced.

          There’s no good solution for it though, as someone has to make the decision about how it appears on petitions and ballots.

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        • Ballots are one thing, but the petitioners themselves should be able establish the wording they want on the petition itself.

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        • They can lie too.

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        • jnc:

          They can lie too.

          Sure, but it is theirs to market how they want, not those in power, and those being asked to sign it will understand that its proponents are trying to sell them on something and can take that into account. Hence the bewilderment of people in this instance when asked to sign a petition with a title designed to discourage them from signing it.

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