Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Arcanaut
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
Stocks are flattish this morning after suffering a couple tough days to open the year. Bonds and MBS are down.
The FOMC minutes indicated that the Fed isn’t quite yet worried about flagging economic growth. Their main focus continues to be inflation, not growth. That said, they do see it appropriate to move the Fed Funds rate lower towards the end of the year.
Participants judged that the current stance of monetary policy was restrictive and appeared to be restraining economic activity and inflation. In light of the policy restraint in place, along with more favorable data on inflation, participants generally viewed risks to inflation and employment as moving toward greater balance. However, participants remained highly attentive to inflation risks…In discussing the policy outlook, participants viewed the policy rate as likely at or near its peak for this tightening cycle, though they noted that the actual policy path will depend on how the economy evolves…In their submitted projections, almost all participants indicated that, reflecting the improvements in their inflation outlooks, their baseline projections implied that a lower target range for the federal funds rate would be appropriate by the end of 2024. Participants also noted, however, that their outlooks were associated with an unusually elevated degree of uncertainty and that it was possible that the economy could evolve in a manner that would make further increases in the target range appropriate.
In terms of inflation, they generally view the supply chain issues to have been worked out. They see shelter inflation working its way lower as rents continue to weaken. Services inflation less shelter, which is largely driven by wage inflation is still elevated.
The Fed Funds futures have begun to take down the probability of a rate cut at the March FOMC meeting. A week ago, we were looking at a 86% chance of a rate cut, while we are now looking at 71% chance.
Bond market volatility has yet to meaningfully work its way lower, which is keeping mortgage spreads elevated. That said, we are starting to see MBS spreads tighten a touch. We are nowhere back to pre-tightening levels however spreads are still close to historical records. We could easily see 125 basis points in lower rates if spreads revert to long-term historical levels. That would imply mortgage rates in the low 5% level even without lower 10 year yields.
The economy added 164,000 jobs in December, according to the ADP Employment Report. “We’re returning to a labor market that’s very much aligned with pre-pandemic hiring,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “While wages didn’t drive the recent bout of inflation, now that pay growth has retreated, any risk of a wage-price spiral has all but disappeared.”
Leisure / Hospitality led the increase in jobs, adding 59,000 which was followed by education / health services at 42,000 and construction at 24,000. This number is a touch higher than the Street expectation for payrolls in tomorrow’s Employment Situation Report.
Wage growth continued to decelerate, rising 5.4% for job stayers and 8% for job changers. The deceleration started over a year ago.
Announced job cuts fell to 34,817 in December, according to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray and Christmas. “Layoffs have begun to level off, and hiring has remained steady as we end 2023. That said, labor costs are high. Employers are still extremely cautious and in cost-cutting mode heading into 2024, so the hiring process will likely slow for many job seekers and cuts will continue in Q1, though at a slower pace,” said Andy Challenger, workplace and labor expert and Senior Vice President of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.
In 2023, tech companies announced the most job cuts (probably as the era of free money disappeared). Retail was next. Health care and financial industries also announced a lot of cuts in 2023.
Filed under: Economy |
All Things in Moderation 
Brent, this may be worth noting in your Substack/morning report.
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2024/01/nra-bad-news-supreme-court-vullo.html
Of course, Slate’s take is 100% wrong. I have no doubt that they would be arguing the opposite position if it was Texas banking regulators issuing “guidance” on the reputational risks to banks continuing to provide financial services to abortion providers, etc.
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Fucking McDonalds and their Jew loving wrappers!
https://redstate.com/nick-arama/2024/01/04/this-might-just-be-the-funniest-anti-israel-freakout-youll-see-today-n2168305
We see you, McDonaldsteins!!!
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Serious question, is there a better explanation for the Feds lack of interest in the J6 pipe bomber than this thread?
https://x.com/thelastrefuge2/status/1743083668447363393?s=46&t=vSGsUlnc4rLxcUf7zfUiHg
If so, what is it?
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George, even liberal writers are starting to acknowledge the rot.
https://www.joshbarro.com/p/universities-are-not-on-the-level
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I love how writers in The Bubble always end up condemning Trump and Republicans writ large in literally everything by they write.
https://x.com/asymmetricinfo/status/1743297673614991673?s=46&t=vSGsUlnc4rLxcUf7zfUiHg
It’s compulsion now and I wonder how intense the backlash was that it’s now worth connecting every written thought to Trump. Like, what are they avoiding by doing that?
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They are avoiding getting replaced by someone who will condemn Trump at every opportunity.
She has a WaPo gig and isn’t about to give that up for the luxury of saying Trump isn’t Literally. Hitler.
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That why the pressure to renounce Trump at all times must be huge. McArdle’s smart, she knows how ridiculous she sounds.
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I am sure there were a lot of Germans and Russians who thought the party line was bullshit but went along with it anyway because they needed to eat.
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No doubt about it, everyone in the USSR knew the consequences for not being enthused enough was death. I don’t think McArdle is being threatened with death, but I do think that she must feel enormous pressure to conform, that the black listing she’d experience for a lack of enough enthusiasm makes me wonder about her confidence in herself to earn a living doing something else.
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McWing:
McArdle’s smart, she knows how ridiculous she sounds.
I wouldn’t bet on it. I lost all respect for Mcardle when, during the Kavanaugh hearings, she thought the allegation that Kavanaugh had been a gang rapist in high school was credible enough to require a full on FBI investigation, despite the previous 6 background checks it had already done, and despite the allegations being a transparent effort by the Dems to delay the vote on his appointment until after the midterm elections.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-partisan/wp/2018/09/27/now-a-kavanaugh-fbi-investigation-is-obligatory/
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My God, that’s appalling!
Still, I interpret this as writing to preserve her job/position. To me, it reinforces my point that she cannot envision her ability to earn a living outside of the one she is in. I’m not justifying her actions, just trying to think of reason why such a smart person succumbs to such incentives.
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Learned helplessness
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“I’m not justifying her actions, just trying to think of reason why such a smart person succumbs to such incentives.”
Money. If you don’t go along, you are frozen out of all the side gig appearances on TV, as happened with Greenwald and Taibbi.
They had a large enough audience to simply go forward on Rumble and Substack respectively, but most don’t.
The media industry as a source of well paying jobs with a career path is collapsing. This is still spot on:
“It’s All Just Displacement
Blue checkmarks are mourning bad careers in a broken industry
Freddie deBoer
Mar 22, 2021”
https://freddiedeboer.substack.com/p/its-all-just-displacement
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She’s smart, she has tremendous ability to earn a substantial living do all sorts of things and yet she clings to this as if she has no where else to go. She seems to have a very limited view of her capabilities and adaptability.
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She’s 50 years old. She doesn’t want to risk the career disruption.
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War has just been declared. Bill has been redpilled about the Lefts Gramscian March Through The Institutions.
Once you see it, you can’t unsee it.
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This will actually be counterproductive. If everyone is guilty, then no one is. If they find a large enough number of people who have committed plagiarism, they will simply declare amnesty.
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Bill has read Rufo. This is about exposing the leftist rot in our institutions.
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The thing is they don’t see it as rot.
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Of course they don’t. This is about redpilling the normies.
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Rufo is more selective with his targets. He used precision munitions, not carpet bombing.
Going after all the faculty will simply cause them to close ranks.
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Lots more people are aware of Ackman than Rufo.
I think the tide is turning against the DEI Industrial Complex.
Think about whether anyone would have known about Harvard and Claudine Gay before Musk took over.
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Looks like there’s more to the story:
“Business Insider story on Harvard antagonist’s wife draws owner’s scrutiny
The news site’s German owner, Axel Springer, plans to review a story about alleged plagiarism by former MIT professor Neri Oxman, whose billionaire husband, Bill Ackman, sought to oust Harvard’s president for similar academic transgressions. Its editor defends the story.
By Will Sommer
January 8, 2024 at 5:07 a.m. EST”
ttps://www.washingtonpost.com/style/media/2024/01/08/neri-oxman-ackman-axel-springer-business-insider/
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Axel Springer is owned by KKR. So Ackman knows those guys intimately.
It is just an example of the Borg closing ranks. If he sues BI, discovery will be interesting. That said, I wonder if it is possible to get a lawyer willing to take on the Borg. I would be reluctant to trust anyone.
They pissed Ackman off, and he sounds like a man on a mission.
Thank God Musk took over Twitter. This would have been buried otherwise.
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I am going to start using this term more
https://twitter.com/ConceptualJames/status/1744039884329742694/photo/1
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lol!
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12934629/Bizarre-moment-MSNBC-host-Jonathan-Capehart-pulls-tissue-CRIES-memory-Jan-6-riots-live-air-prompting-Capitol-cop-guest-clear-throat-uncomfortably.html
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Republicans cave. Same as it ever was.
“Congressional leaders reach deal that would avert government shutdown
The negotiated totals would preserve funding for key domestic and social safety net programs despite GOP demands for cuts
By Jacob Bogage
January 7, 2024 at 3:30 p.m. EST”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/01/07/congress-budget-deal/
Can’t have an actual cut when taking inflation into account. That just wouldn’t do.
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There will never be a cut regardless of how big a majority Republican ever have (which seems highly unlikely to ever occur again in any of our lifetimes).
Spending will continue to expand exponentially. Weimar, Zimbabwe, Argentina shows them the way.
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I’m sorry but this is too funny not to post here!
Donald Trump shared a video declaring that God made him to lead the country.
The fan-made video frames Trump as a messianic figure and a workaholic.
Polls show many evangelical Christians believe God anointed him to rule.
Former President Donald Trump shared a bizarre fan-made video on Truth Social, which declared that he was divinely chosen to lead the country.
“And on June 14, 1946, God looked down on his planned paradise and said, ‘I need a caretaker.’ So God gave us Trump,” the video starts.
The narrator goes on to frame Trump as a messianic figure who was created by God to “fight the Marxists” and “call out the fake news for their tongues as sharp as a serpent’s.”
Trump has long had a solid base of support among evangelical Christians in the United States, and polls show that a high portion believes that God anointed him to rule — even though he has never suggested having any strong personal faith.
Trump’s sharing of the video suggests that he fully embraces the role ahead of the 2024 election.
The video describes Trump’s supposed strengths, including his “arms strong enough to rustle the Deep State and yet gentle enough to deliver his own grandchild.” It’s not clear which of his grandchildren Trump is meant to have delivered.
The video also describes Trump as a workaholic who worked all hours of the night while president.
His work ethic was a source of debate during his time in office, particularly after his private schedules were leaked, showing that half of his scheduled time was unstructured.
The video also claimed that Trump attended church services every Sunday despite no evidence of this.
Last year, former Vice-President Mike Pence, well-known to be a deeply religious evangelical Christian, ridiculed Trump’s religious devotion during his remarks at the annual Gridiron Dinner.
Pence joked that he had “once invited President Trump to a Bible study,” calling it “an experience,” according to The Washington Post.
“I read that some of those classified documents they found in Mar-a-Lago were actually stuck in the president’s Bible,” Pence said, referencing the ongoing saga of investigations into Trump. “Which proves he had absolutely no idea they were there.”
https://news.yahoo.com/trump-shares-bizarre-video-declaring-155822105.html
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Another take on Trump:
“Donald Trump, America’s Comic
As lawsuits, indictments, and ballot challenges mount, a defiant Donald Trump tells America: he’ll be here all week
Matt Taibbi
Jan 8, 2024
…
I’ve attended probably thirty Trump speeches across various stages of the last nine years of his political career, seeing him on the rise here in Iowa and New Hampshire in 2015-2016, in full gloat later in Indiana after finishing off Zodiac Ted Cruz, in freefall after Access Hollywood, in crisis as he faced rumors of a 25th amendment challenge and then impeachment, triumphant again after Russiagate collapsed, and now again in his “indicted more than Al Capone” phase. He can be more or less angry or incoherent, he’ll say more or fewer things an Ivy League graduate would find objectionable, misogynistic, or obscene, but the constant from the start has been Trump’s dedication to not giving a fuck — there’s no other way to put it in English — and institutional America’s equally hard-headed determination to reward him by overreacting.
It’s the eternal seesaw of American politics. For every naughty thing Trump does, media colleagues bail him out with multiple absurd exaggerations he gets to ride back up the polls. Trump’s political career looked over three years ago this week, plunging to a 34% approval rating after the Capitol Riots while Joe Biden entered office above 50%. Now, after ten million criminal indictments, some clearly politicized, as well as innumerable civil actions including a Ku Klux Klan Act suit and, most recently, challenges to his ballot status in Colorado and Maine, the two men pollwise are reprising Trading Places. This would have seemed impossible even a year ago. Now he’s the clear frontrunner if the next election is decided by votes instead of courts, of course a big if.”
https://www.racket.news/p/donald-trump-americas-comic
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They’re being ungovernable.
https://thereload.com/just-1-of-illinois-gun-owners-register-assault-weapons-ahead-of-ban/
How will their knees be made to bend?
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This will teach the Jews a lesson.
https://x.com/jasonrantz/status/1743775100728692920?s=46&t=vSGsUlnc4rLxcUf7zfUiHg
Game, set, match.
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I suspect that if 9/11 happened again, the pro Palestinian protesters would take bin Laden’s side.
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Lol!
https://x.com/a_newsman/status/1743699818315153688?s=46&t=vSGsUlnc4rLxcUf7zfUiHg
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