Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Arcanaut
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
Stocks are higher this morning after inflation numbers came in better than expected. Bonds and MBS are down small. Given that this is the Friday before a long Christmas weekend, trading volumes should be razor-thin.
Personal Income rose 0.4% MOM in November, an increase of 0.1% compared to October and September. This was bang in line with Street expectations. Consumption rose 0.2%, which was shy of expectations.
Importantly, the PCE Price index (the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation) fell 0.1% in November and was up 2.6% on a year-over-year basis. Both numbers were below expectations. The core rate, which excludes food and energy rose 0.1% month-over-month and 3.2% year-over-year. Both core numbers were below expectations.
You can see in the chart below, we are about 2/3 of the way there in getting core inflation back to the Fed’s goal:
The bond market didn’t react to the numbers much but given how much rates have fallen already that probably shouldn’t be a surprise.
New home sales fell 12.2% MOM to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 590,000. This was up on a year-over-year basis however. The median new home price fell about 6% to $434,700.
The S&P SPDR Homebuilder ETF has been on a tear since the 10 year peaked in late October.
Durable good orders rose 5.4% month-over-month, which was better-than-expected. Core capital goods (a proxy for business capital investment) rose 0.8%, which was again better than than expected.
Title Company First American Financial suffered a cyberattack and shut down its website, imperiling mortgage transactions in progress. “First American has experienced a cybersecurity incident. In response, we have taken certain systems offline and are working to return to normal business operations as soon as possible.”
Freddie Mac is out with their outlook for 2024. They see economic growth cooling from 2023’s pace, which should cause unemployment to tick up. Mortgage rates are expected to be in the 6% – 7% range during the year, while home prices are expected to rise 6.3%. Despite inflation remaining above the Fed’s 2% target, they think the Fed will start cutting rates.
For-sale inventory is expected to remain depressed, and the company sees a modest uptick in dollar volume for purchase originations while refinancing activity will remain moribund.
Filed under: Economy |
All Things in Moderation 
Merry Christmas everyone.
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Merry Christmas!
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Hope you all had a great Christmas or Hanukkah and are looking forward to a prosperous New Year! I came by to check on y’all and noticed that the last 5 posts from Brent all heralded positive economic news………….hopefully some of that will extend into 2024.
The best gift I received was a Lego set of 680 pieces making a vase of Orchids. Started it yesterday and all I can say is I’m glad I’ve been doing Legos with my kids and grandsons for the last 50 years. Keeps my mind sharp and at 73 I need all the help I can get!
In case you’re wondering what I’ve been up to, I’m on a new medication for Vertigo/Migraines and it seems to be helping so I’m looking forward to some gym time and long hikes again next year. Politically I’m working as a poll worker again next year, doing a “get out the vote” mail project and spending lots of time, effort and some money on our local race for my soon to be Congressman…………….Will Rollins.
Not looking forward to a year of divisiveness but I’ll try to stay focused and ignore Trump’s shenanigans as much as possible.
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Forgot to mention I’m been involved in several clinical trials. Last year finished an RSV trial for the new vaccine available this year, still involved in the trial that I started in 2013 at Loma Linda re the liver damage I suffered from in 2012 due to Salmonella poisoning and right now finished a “smell test” related to Parkinson’s of all things. A few others along the way in the last 10 years.
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Hope those are going well. I’ve done some clinical trials as well for cancer detection drugs & neuropathy treatment from when I was on chemo.
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This is disturbing…
https://x.com/drjbhattacharya/status/1740029782967148624?s=46&t=vSGsUlnc4rLxcUf7zfUiHg
He’s not just some random kook either.
You cannot distrust government power enough.
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You see this?
https://www.foxnews.com/us/zombie-deer-disease-concerns-scientists-possible-spread-humans
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Geez, 12 Monkeys was a fucking movie I thought.
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Love the new, tame Bernie Sanders.
https://x.com/sensanders/status/1740394578266792371?s=46&t=vSGsUlnc4rLxcUf7zfUiHg
He does a nice liturgy though.
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All right, it’s on now:
“Donald Trump removed from Maine primary ballot by secretary of state
By Patrick Marley
Updated December 28, 2023 at 7:12 p.m. EST
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/12/28/maine-trump-primary-ballot/
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Carrying on the Democratic tradition of keeping Republicans off the ballot.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1860_United_States_presidential_election
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2024 is gonna be the Charlestown Chiefs vs the Syracuse Bulldogs, isn’t it?
With Jonah Goldberg talking about old time hockey and eddie shore.
Edit: Chris Christie might be better.
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Brent:
2024 is gonna be the Charlestown Chiefs vs the Syracuse Bulldogs, isn’t it?
Great reference. Talk about bringing back memories. I was a kid when Newman came to Syracuse to film some of the scenes at the old Syracuse War Memorial. It was the talk of the city. Syracuse actually had a real AHL team back then, called the Syracuse Blazers.
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Growing up in the Rust Belt I totally got the zeitgeist of that movie.
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No accidents or other claims and my auto insurance has increased 26.5 % year over year.
Thanks Joe Biden.
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My house insurance went up about 20% as well.
Bidenomics!
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This is worth watching:
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This back and forth thread between Frum and Dowd is amazing.
https://x.com/davidfrum/status/1740343641049338080?s=46&t=vSGsUlnc4rLxcUf7zfUiHg
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It’s annoying that Musk blocked people from being able to read Twitter unless you have an account and are logged in.
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This may affect some of you. It does for Rosanne and me.
https://evergreensmallbusiness.com/boi-reports/
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Granddaughter is a freshman in HS and a debater. She is having to debate the proposition that Congress should [or should not] prohibit the invasion of the Strategic Reserve for other than national emergencies [IOW, whether or not it can be used to control the price of gasoline at the pump].
Debate would be a way to teach without a pre-ordained bias, I think.
Also, Happy New Year!
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Happy New Year Mark! I hope you and Rosanne are doing well. I need to get back out to Austin in 2024.
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Happy new year all!
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Good write up on your Substack newsletter today Brent. I’d suggest linking it at Taibbi’s if you haven’t already.
This was amusing too from Freddie DeBoer, who is a full fledged Marxist:
“These Rules About Platforming Nazis Sure Seem Arbitrary and Incoherent!
Substack Nazis very bad, switch to Ghost or WordPress, which also have Nazis
Freddie deBoer
Jan 1, 2024”
https://freddiedeboer.substack.com/p/these-rules-about-platforming-nazis
His original note was a bit more concise:
https://substack.com/@freddiedeboer/note/c-46341729
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Hmm, I wasn’t aware I could do that. Will have to figure it out..
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I meant just link it as a comment to a relevant article the next time the opportunity presents itself.
You may also want to link it in Substack Notes, like you did the Weekly Tear Sheet.
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Good write up on your Substack newsletter today Brent
Agreed, especially the part about what would actually change if Trump dropped dead of a heart attack.
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Thanks guys!
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