Morning Report: Job openings fall

Vital Statistics:

Stocks are lower after Moody’s cut China’s debt outlook. Bonds and MBS are up.

Job openings fell to 8.7 million in October, according to the JOLTS report. This was well below Street expectations of 9.4 million. The job openings rate fell to 5.3%, which is down 0.3% MOM and 1.1% YOY. The quits rate was flat at 2.3%.

Job openings fell in health care / social assistance and finance.

Despite the drop in job openings, the ISM Services index expanded at a faster rate in November. “The services sector had a slight uptick in growth in November, attributed to the increase in business activity and slight employment growth. Respondents’ comments vary by both company and industry. There is continuing concern about inflation, interest rates and geopolitical events. Rising labor costs and labor constraints remain employment-related challenges.”

Tappable equity has returned to close to its 2022 peak, according to data from Black Knight. “Despite the resurgence in tappable equity among U.S. mortgage holders, elevated interest rates are making homeowners reluctant to extract that wealth,” Walden said. “Indeed, in recent quarters, equity withdrawal rates have been running at less than half their long-run averages. Mortgage holders extracted a mere 0.41% of tappable equity available at the beginning of Q3. That’s some 55% below the average withdrawal rate seen in the 12 years leading up to the Fed’s most recent tightening cycle. That’s equivalent to $54 billion – $250B over the last 18 months – in ‘missing’ withdrawals that might have otherwise stimulated the broader economy.”

The large amount of equity in homes is also contributing to the low delinquency rate, as troubled borrowers often have 20% equity in their homes and can simply sell the property and move on.

41 Responses

  1. Hilarious thread from the KosKidz acknowledging the economy sucks while blaming the Republicans.

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/12/4/2209731/-The-economy-sucks-for-many-of-us?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web

    This is my favorite commment:


    WI Lurker
    Clio2
    Dec 05, 2023 at 07:43:51 AM
    Most people are doing better than they were 3 years ago. I mean that’s just a fact.

    This is the same problem Obama had. No matter how many steady months of employment and economic growth and stability, some people were hurting, so you can’t promote anything done to help all the rest of the people.

    Like the infrastructure bill ALL NEXT YEAR.

    Who you gonna believe, me or your lying eyes?

    Like

  2. Brent, you may have addressed retroactive taxation of IRAs back in 2017.
    Well, it’s finally at the Supremes.

    https://evergreensmallbusiness.com/a-cpa-explains-moore-v-united-states/

    Like

    • Crazy talk.

      “But the warnings did little to win over GOP skeptics, who have been demanding more accountability around the money that has already been spent and clear objectives on how additional aid will help Ukraine defeat Russia.”

      Like

  3. This is the liberal take now:

    “John Halpin

    The Liberal Patriot

    The White House is now like every other useless nonprofit—overrun by entitled leftists who preen anonymously ”

    https://substack.com/@johnhalpin/note/c-44881447

    Edit, from the link this is the level that they are operating at:

    “”We, the undersigned Fall 2023 White House and Executive Office of the President interns, will no longer remain silent on the ongoing genocide of the Palestinian people,” the interns wrote.”

    “The writers, like those at other agencies who have sent similar missives in recent weeks, declined to sign their names to the letter. “

    Like

  4. Abbot should let the 5th Circuit do it, or more likely, the Feds, then put them back in the next day. It’s time to use the power of State Nullification.

    https://www.fairus.org/biden-immigration-border-policy/fifth-circuit-court-appeals-orders-texas-remove-buoys-rio-grande

    Like

    • Reading the law, the decision is correct and Texas is wrong regarding the “navigable waterways”.

      However, Abbot should invoke the “actually invaded” language in the Constitution, just to make his point.

      Like

    • Ever wonder what $93000/year cost of attendance could buy?

      Nearly 80 percent of all grades given to undergraduates at Yale last year were A’s or A minuses.

      Like

  5. The woke mind virus in action

    Like

    • Not a parody:

      “We are DELIGHTED to announce that our forthcoming book White Women: Everything You Already Know About Your Own Racism and How To Do Better has received a STARRED review from @KirkusReviews”

      Like

  6. The comments on this post are fascinating, especially the ones that insist, without irony, that Biden should use the bully pulpit and speak to the American people directly.

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/12/6/2210041/-Ukraine-Update-Trump-Putin-prevail-with-Republican-senators?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_5&pm_medium=web#comment_87578315

    I encourage that kind of thinking and action!

    Like

  7. Serious question, the Biden admin and Democrats claim that their open border policies are not about replacing or diluting the Republican electorate. If so, then what is the motivation for it?

    Like

    • Always assume the left is operating in bad faith.

      If illegals voted Republican, the democrats would be in favor of mining the border.

      Like

    • Like everything else these days, “opposing racism”.

      They are captive to their far left wing that views any immigration restrictions as racist.

      Like

      • Ok, that’s fair. My follow up question would be, what is racist about immigration control? More broadly, is national sovereignty inherently racist and if so, why?

        Like

        • i always tell the left that you can have open borders or a welfare state, but not both.

          Like

        • “More broadly, is national sovereignty inherently racist and if so, why?”

          The answer they would give is yes, because they view it as inherently unjust that one’s life prospects are determined to a great degree by the circumstances of one’s birth. National sovereignty is just another version the country club gated community in that view.

          Freddie DeBoer makes a semi-articulate argument about it here:

          “I Assure You, I Am Permitted to Oppose the Existence of Any and All Nation-States
          even one that’s very very important to you

          Freddie deBoer
          Dec 6, 2023”

          https://freddiedeboer.substack.com/p/i-assure-you-i-am-permitted-to-oppose

          This piece also gets to the heart of the subjective morality at play in the left and how it manifests in the hierarchy of victimhood:

          “Between a high, solid wall and an egg that breaks against it, I will always stand on the side of the egg. Yes, no matter how right the wall may be and how wrong the egg.”

          https://freddiedeboer.substack.com/p/a-bad-partner-is-worse-than-rain

          Like

        • How does the left justify agitating then for a Palestinian nation state or for Ukrainian national integrity?

          Like

        • It’s all about determining who is the victim and siding with them.

          DeBoer is a full on Marxist internationalist and does actually want to abolish nation states entirely.

          This is the response in the piece that’s most directly on point:

          “I support the liberation of Northern Ireland from the continuing hold of British imperialism; that this would expand the Republic of Ireland, a nation state, is just one of those little compromises you have to live with when your political values are as unpopular as mine are.”

          The left views Israel/Palestine as directly analogous to Apartheid South Africa. Hence all the “colonizer” rhetoric. And as they have helpfully pointed out, this is what “decolonization” looks like in practice.

          Like

Leave a reply to Brent Nyitray Cancel reply