Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Arcanaut
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital statistics:
Stocks are lower this morning as we await two speeches from Jerome Powell. Bonds and MBS are down.
Nick Timaros of the WSJ (one of the journalists most plugged in to what the Fed is thinking) says that the hiking cycle is probably over, however the Fed is reluctant to say so. They are even more reluctant to discuss any sort of rate cuts. The fear is that declaring victory too early while the economy is growing and the labor market is tight risks a credibility issue if inflation resurges.
That said, Fed Governor Waller discussed how the Fed could start cutting rates yesterday, saying that as inflation falls, the real rate of interest increases even if the Fed Funds rate stays the same. You can see that in the chart below, which subtracts the annual CPI from the Fed Funds rate.
Right now, the real Fed Funds rate is the highest it has been since 2007, which means monetary policy is pretty restrictive. In March of 2022, the real rate of interest was -8.3%, which is a record. Prior negative rate lows were -4.8% in 1980 and -5% in 1975.
The December Fed Funds futures are pricing in a 0% chance for a rate hike. The March Fed Funds futures are now close to a 50-50 chance for a 25 basis point rate cut.
The US manufacturing sector contracted again in November, according to the ISM Manufacturing Index. “The U.S. manufacturing sector continued to contract at the same rate in November as compared to October, again posting a reading of 46.7 percent. Companies are still managing outputs appropriately as order softness continues.”
“Demand remains soft, and production execution is slightly down compared to October as panelists’ companies continue to manage outputs, material inputs and — more aggressively — labor costs. Suppliers continue to have capacity. Sixty-five percent of manufacturing gross domestic product (GDP) contracted in November, down from 75 percent in October. More importantly, the share of sector GDP registering a composite PMI® calculation at or below 45 percent — a good barometer of overall manufacturing weakness — was 54 percent in November, compared to 35 percent in October and 6 percent in September. Three of the top six industries by contribution to manufacturing GDP were at or below 45 percent, same as the previous month,” says Fiore.
One of the respondents said the economy is “slowing dramatically.”
Filed under: Economy |
All Things in Moderation 
George Santos’s last words as a Congressmen was “Jamaal Bowman survives”
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Swalwell slept with a Chinese spy. Chappaquiddick. Schiff ran the Russian Collusion Hoax.
Republicans hate their voters.
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Republicans hate their voters.
Absolutely they do.
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At this point, they seem to be throwing the 2024 election.
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Well, considering how Milley et al lied to him, desperate to keep us in Afghanistan, and considering that he’s campaigning on ending the war in Ukraine, or at least no longer funding it, is it any surprise that establishment R’s would through the race? They are much more aligned idea logically with Biden and the D’s versus their own base.
If you throw in his desire to tariff the shit out of China, it’s a slam dunk that Trump will not be allowed to win.
Also, incumbents don’t lose so…
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I think we are witnessing a split into three parties. The Populists, the Uniparty and the Left.
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Here you go:
“Good Night, Sweet Princess
George Santos was too flamboyantly criminal for Congress
Josh Barro
Dec 1, 2023
Dear readers,
George Santos was not the worst criminal ever to serve in Congress. At the time of his expulsion earlier today, he was not even the member of Congress currently under federal indictment for the most serious crimes — no, that’s Sen. Robert Menendez, who stands accused of selling his office to the Egyptians. No other member of Congress has ever been expelled over a mere criminal indictment; Menendez hasn’t even had to give up his committee assignments. So why was an exception made for Rep. Santos and his (as-yet still alleged!) campaign-funded shopping sprees at Hermès and OnlyFans?
The answer is obvious: anti-gay bigotry.”
https://www.joshbarro.com/p/good-night-sweet-princess
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Found this interesting
https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/4337760-fetterman-calls-for-menendez-ouster-says-actions-more-sinister-than-santos/
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Between that and standing up to the Palestinian protesters I’m starting to like Fetterman.
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As usual, the Bee nails it:
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Is anyone else noticing that a lot of liberals are now using the term “leftist?”
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Interesting:
“GENERAL TO GENERAL
A potential peace is being negotiated in Ukraine by military leaders
Seymour Hersh
Dec 1, 2023”
https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/general-to-general
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Good read:
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The Vegan Cat, with humans
https://twitter.com/nypost/status/1730729263668560184/photo/1
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The new progressive messaging on inflation:
“Inflation Is Your Fault
If people are so mad about high prices, why do they keep buying so many expensive things?
By Annie Lowrey”
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/12/inflation-prices-buying-habits/676191/
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Baby, you make me hit you?
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Well, yeah, inflation makes people front-load purchases to beat the price increases….
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Plus, don’t we still have to buy things, even if the price goes up?
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Look at consumer confidence numbers in the 1970s. Same thing.
Mary Tyler Moore rolling her eyes at the price of beef, and then throwing it into her cart anyway…
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Apparently the author is an English Lit major from Harvard who is married to Ezra Klein.
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Yes. Like a lot of that part of the media class, she often generalizes based on the specific conditions she and her family are experiencing in either San Francisco or New York, which is where they have lived.
Case in point:
Freddie DeBoer was spot on here about the psychology of the whole online media class these days, even the successful ones:
“It’s All Just Displacement
Blue checkmarks are mourning bad careers in a broken industry
Freddie deBoer
Mar 22, 2021”
https://freddiedeboer.substack.com/p/its-all-just-displacement
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Freddie does great work when he points out just how unpopular the woke leftist shit is.
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I’m waiting for Biden and his press cheerleaders to bring back Gerald Ford’s WIN buttons.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whip_inflation_now
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we should just replace Biden with Carter.
he’s still eligble.
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The resistance fantasies about Trump are becoming ever more elaborate.
“A Trump dictatorship is increasingly inevitable. We should stop pretending.
By Robert Kagan
Editor at large
November 30, 2023 at 8:00 a.m. EST”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/11/30/trump-dictator-2024-election-robert-kagan/
One gets the impression that they secretly want Trump to do all these things that they claim to be appalled by so they can then present themselves as the heroes in their elaborate mental exercise.
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jnc:
One gets the impression that they secretly want Trump to do all these things that they claim to be appalled by so they can then present themselves as the heroes in their elaborate mental exercise.
I think that, as usual, they are simply projecting their own desires/sins onto their opponents. They call Trump a dictator in order to justify their own dictatorial impulses.
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I am always fascinated by the level of authoritarianism they assign to Trump, it allows them to become heroes merely by continuing to exist.
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This was a funny comment about the piece on Substack:
“I only skimmed the article, but apparently once Trump acquires all of the Infinity Stones he’s going to become worthy and take over Wakanda.”
https://substack.com/@librarianofcelaeno/note/c-44713627
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This is good. If there was any integrity in the process, Taibbi and his fellow collaborators on the Twitter Files would receive the Pulitzer Prize.
“Not a Nothingburger: My Statement to Congress on Censorship
The key question in censorship is always the same. Who’s doing it?
Matt Taibbi
Dec 2, 2023”
https://www.racket.news/p/not-a-nothingburger-my-statement
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jnc:
If there was any integrity in the process, Taibbi and his fellow collaborators on the Twitter Files would receive the Pulitzer Prize.
He was on Laura Ingraham’s show the other day and she said exactly the same thing. Given the process, unfortunately, winning the Pulitzer is more a mark of shame than achievement.
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Not like he did anything heroic like covering for Stalin or something..
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Please make it a reality!
https://babylonbee.com/news/chick-fil-a-buc-ees-hobby-lobby-merge-to-form-most-popular-store-of-all-time
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This is pretty good, but I’d have changed it to a commentary about the media, more so than Biden.
“To Encourage Biden To Rescue Hostages, Posters Will Now Feature Photos Of WNBA Players
World · Nov 28, 2023 · BabylonBee.com”
https://babylonbee.com/news/israeli-hostage-posters-now-featuring-pictures-of-wnba-players-so-biden-will-rescue-them
Technically, it’s not Biden’s job to rescue citizens of a foreign country. Yes, I know some have dual citizenship in the US.
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I agree re hostage rescue. For whatever reason, hostages have fallen to the Whitehouse to solve. Probably goes back to Carter and the embassy hostages, which were indeed his to solve. Anybody on govt business should be the Executive Branch’s responsibility, else wise travelers should be aware. Are there special circumstances? Sure. But as a rule? No.
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Regarding the registrar case:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2023/12/02/prince-william-election-felony-charges-dropped/
How the Post covered it initially:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2022/09/07/prince-william-election-registrar-indicted/
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I am still confused as to what election results were alleged to have been changed. Both stories are bizarrely cryptic is what happened, so I assume it was some action that would be unflattering for Democrats. I have to believe that all involved are Democrats since I don’t think Prince George County is MAGA country.
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The Post is desperately attempting to avoid providing any support for the Republican narrative of possible election fraud. This of course prevents them from actually informing their readers about the facts of the situation.
Having said that, the court filings are pretty vague too.
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FYI Brent:
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Won’t someone spare a thought for the poor, bedraggled oligarchs?
https://x.com/afreedma/status/1731217064210333934?s=46&t=vSGsUlnc4rLxcUf7zfUiHg
Do you expect them to fly commercial?!?!?
Oh, the humanity!
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Every story on the Atlantic home page today is “Orange Man Bad”.
https://www.theatlantic.com/
Edit: Ahh, it’s intentional. It’s a special “Orange Man Bad” issue.
“In The Atlantic’s January/February 2024 issue, 24 writers imagine what a second Trump term would look like.”
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Christian Nationalism In Action
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-67599985
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There is value, and more importantly, personal dignity in being ungovernable. Whether the recipients of the ticket actually believe in the concept of Sovereign Citizen or not, they are making the State prove their case and expend resources to do so.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-11-30/sovereign-citizen-websites-traffic-fines-former-magistrate/103165906
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Dayum !
https://babylonbee.com/news/bill-cosby-joins-hamas-so-feminists-will-stop-condemning-him-for-rape
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