Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Arcanaut
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
Stocks are lower this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are up.
Neel Kashkari isn’t convinced rate hikes are over. “Undertightening will not get us back to 2% in a reasonable time,” Neel Kashkari, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal on Monday. He is awaiting further data. “I am not ready to say we are in a good place.” Note that Kashkari has generally favored more aggressive responses to the economy, pushing for lower rates during the ZIRP period and higher rates now.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee thinks we could be on a “golden path” of lowering inflation without causing a recession. “Because of some of the strangeness of this moment, there is the possibility of the golden path … that we got inflation down without a recession,” Goolsbee said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” “If that happened … it would just be a continuation of what we’ve already seen this year, which is unemployment up very modestly, while inflation has come down a lot. … That’s our goal.”
The “strangeness of the moment” is the residual effects of a firehose of fiscal stimulus in 2020-2022. The Fed has never been able to hike rates like this without causing a recession in the past. It is a “this time is different.” take.
Credit standards continue to tighten, according to the Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Survey. “For loans to households, banks reported that lending standards tightened across all categories of residential real estate (RRE) loans other than government residential mortgages, for which standards remained basically unchanged. Meanwhile, demand weakened for all RRE loan categories. In addition, banks reported tighter standards and weaker demand for home equity lines of credit (HELOCs). Moreover, for credit card, auto, and other consumer loans, standards reportedly tightened, and demand weakened on balance.”
The survey mentioned commercial real estate as a continued pain point.
Mortgage delinquencies picked up in September, according to the Black Knight Mortgage Monitor. The DQ rate increased to 3.29% which was up 12 basis points from August and 13 basis points from a year ago. This was the largest increase in the past 2.5 years. 30 day DQs rose by 5.1% making it the fourth consecutive monthly rise, while 60 day DQs have risen for 6 months in a row. Note DQs are still below pre-pandemic levels, but it looks like rising rates and a weakening labor market are starting to have an effect.
Rocket reported third quarter numbers that beat expectations. Closed loan volume fell 13% YOY to $22.2 billion. Gain on sale margins increased by 10 basis points to 2.79%. Rocket is guiding for a seasonal slowdown in the fourth quarter which is to be expected.
It looks like the Fixed Income Clearing Corporation is greasing the skids to up margin requirements for MBS. The volatility in the bond market is causing them to increase their risk assessments.
Filed under: Economy |
All Things in Moderation 
This made me laugh
https://x.com/semafor/status/1721864598939107496?s=46&t=vSGsUlnc4rLxcUf7zfUiHg
A lot
LikeLike
Because people think “falling inflation” = “falling prices.”
LikeLike
That and the official statistics don’t factor in the impact of interest rates.
Car price inflation is based on what the cash price is, not the average monthly payments.
LikeLike
This is how the left views the issue:
Clearly the swing voters are wrong, not Biden or the Democrats.
Well that settles it. If all of your “good friends agree”, well then there’s nothing left to discuss.
https://newrepublic.com/article/176670/new-york-times-poll-biden-trump-democrats-tough-conversations
This of course is compounded by their deeper analysis:
Weird that people don’t like being intentionally made into losers due to government policy and then told that welfare will make up for it.
LikeLike
It never, ever, ever dawns on the left that they might not be as popular as they are in their media bubble.
LikeLike
Utopias poll really well, the process that is used to enforce utopian ideals, not so much.
LikeLike
This quote sums up the Woke Left in a nutshell:
LikeLike
Lol
https://x.com/elliotkaufman6/status/1721893935247966487?s=46&t=vSGsUlnc4rLxcUf7zfUiHg
LikeLike
The chef’s kiss of this performance art is the dude getting into a Prius at the end.
https://x.com/matthewhurtt/status/1721895381330792638?s=46&t=vSGsUlnc4rLxcUf7zfUiHg
LikeLike
I guess the party has fully made the decision on which side to support.
https://redstate.com/bonchie/2023/11/07/elizabeth-warren-mercilessly-slammed-for-islamaphobia-post-after-jewish-man-is-murdered-n2166011
LikeLike
Looks like the Democrats are having a good night.
LikeLike
They’ve been running the board on special elections all year.
I expect a visitor.
LikeLike
I’d say lmsinca was right on new abortion restrictions being a political loser for Republicans.
LikeLike
In Virginia and Ohio? Certainly. It’s interesting that LMS agrees with Trump.
LikeLike
Yeah, the one overriding clear argument that was made for why the Republicans should gain control of both houses of the Virginia legislature was enact a 15 week restriction on abortion instead of the current 26 week restriction.
They lost both houses as a result.
LikeLike
All the Never Trumpers said Youngkin was the savior, how’d he get the zeitgeist so wrong? As for Ohio, legalizing pot seems like a no brainer to me and would attract the young, whom would support constitutional pro abortion positions.
Republicans should be embracing legalized dope, not opposing it.
LikeLike
“All the Never Trumpers said Youngkin was the savior, how’d he get the zeitgeist so wrong?”
Same way the Democrats do. Listening to the base and disregarding the rest.
DeSantis is doing the same thing on abortion.
This was an interesting take:
LikeLike
I thought the NeverTrumper’s LOVED Youngkin specifically because he doesn’t listen to the base? His appeal was to the Suburban wine alcoholic, er mom because he spoke their freakish lefty language.
As for DeSantis, he has both chambers and will likely keep them for a while – he’s never really faced a challenge from a legislature. Also, he’s dull and underwhelming.
Now the NeverTrumpers will really push Haley – and it’s going to be exhausting.
LikeLike
Exhausting and irrelevant.
LikeLike
Decent take:
https://www.slowboring.com/p/23-thoughts-on-the-2023-midterms
LikeLike
One thing to remember, starting in 2010, Republicans significantly over performed in local state elections, and repeated it through 2018. The Democrats, with ballot harvesting, are reverting that performance back to norm.
2020 was decided by 43,000 votes in 3 states with zero ballot harvesting effort from R’s.
LikeLike
The left still has the money advantage. I think Republicans were outspent 4:1
LikeLike
Given that, one must wonder why people like lms were so insistent on lying about what the Constitution says for so many years.
LikeLike
The Hamas strategy:
Related:
LikeLike
Good read. NoVA if you are around you may find the family history in this one interesting:
https://volodzko.substack.com/p/the-brothers-wolodzko
LikeLike
Good article. thanks for sharing.
Sorry haven’t been around much. Not sure I shared (I might have) but my wife is currently in chemotheraphy for breast cancer. She’s doing well, but it’s be a slog for all of us.
LikeLike
You did. Glad to hear that she’s doing well. Cancer and chemotherapy suck. I speak from experience.
LikeLike
So sorry Nova, that is absolutely awful! I am praying for y’all! If you’re able to keep us updated, please do so.
LikeLike
So sorry to hear that, Nova. Best wishes.
LikeLike
The author apparently edited it after the initial posting to remove the family history which he’s doing as a separate piece. That’s what I thought you would find most interesting. I’ll link it when it’s up again.
LikeLike
Thanks everyone.
LikeLike
Sorry to hear that, Nova. Best wishes
LikeLike
Interesting take:
“What struck me is that despite his own raging unpopularity, Mr. Trump is positioned to serve as the repository for protest votes, nostalgia votes and change votes, a weird but potentially potent mash-up of support that could make up for a multitude of weaknesses. He could wind up beating Mr. Biden almost by default.”
LikeLike
Has anyone heard any reasonable explanation for the fact that Biden used several pseudonymous email addresses while he was Vice President?
Is he continuing to do so as President?
LikeLike
We’re up to 82,000 Biden emails using a pseudonym from his time a VEEP.
LikeLike
Also, why was Hunter cc’d on his fathers emails regarding Ukraine, when JB was Veep and Hunter was on the Burisma board?
LikeLike
I was unaware of this. One possible one is that campaign communications are supposed to be kept separate from government communications.
This has been an issue going back to Clinton/Gore doing campaign phone calls from the White House and then with the George W. Bush White House having separate E-mail addresses for campaign functions that were sometimes used for official government business and not properly turned over for archiving.
LikeLike
jnc:
He apparently used at least three different aliases… “Robin Ware,” “Robert L. Peters” and “JRB Ware”…as email addresses for “private” communications. And there are 82,000 pages of emails using these three names while he was VP. As far as I know, no one in the WH has offered an explanation.
LikeLike
Sounds like Trump pretending to be “John Barron”.
LikeLike
jnc:
Sounds like Trump pretending to be “John Barron”.
I thought he did that as a businessman to fool reporters doing stories on him. Did have an alias he used in Presidential emails?
LikeLike
I’m pure evil because I found this hilarious.
https://x.com/rheakarys/status/1722467613987516840?s=46&t=vSGsUlnc4rLxcUf7zfUiHg
LikeLike
The cop clearly didn’t know the rules
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=59kf86v_Cpc
LikeLike
Doesn’t he understand she’s non-binary?
What a barbarian.
LikeLike
Good read:
“Peter Thiel Is Taking a Break From Democracy
It’s one of his many, many disappointments.
By Barton Gellman
November 9, 2023, 11:56 AM ET”
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2023/11/peter-thiel-2024-election-politics-investing-life-views/675946/
LikeLike
I didn’t watch it, but after seeing this I declare Ramaswamy the winner!
LikeLike
I keep saying it: We are going to splinter into 3 parties:
A Populist Trumpy Party
A Swampy Uniparty
A Hysterical Wokie Party
LikeLike
Manchin is retiring
https://apnews.com/article/joe-manchin-west-virginia-election-35e5285934c5801db37215802ca2cd94
Here was his piece announcing it in the Wall Street Journal
I have always been a responsible pro-life advocate, but polls and elections like this week’s ballot initiative in Ohio show that most Americans want the balance found for the past 50 years in Roe v. Wade.
So last year I pushed for a bill that would have codified the 1973 ruling into law. At the time, Democrats controlled the White House and both chambers of Congress. We should have had the votes to pass the bill.
But the Senate Democratic leadership and the majority of the caucus refused to allow a vote on the floor because they wanted to expand abortion rights beyond Roe v. Wade. They put politics over the will of the people.
Later that year, the same thing happened on the other side of the aisle with a bill to reform energy permitting. America’s energy security is and will continue to be threatened without such a law, and passing one has long been a Republican priority. This time the Republican Senate leadership and the majority of their caucus killed the bill because they were angry that I had helped pass an energy-security bill they didn’t like. Again, they put politics over the will of the people.
Like the Democrats on abortion, Republicans refused to take yes for an answer. Both events demonstrated the kind of self-defeating political tribalism that has become all too common in Washington.
The U.S. has a lot of problems that desperately need solving. Our economy isn’t working for many Americans, who face rising costs of food, fuel and everything else. There are immigration and border crises with drugs illegally entering our country and killing Americans every day. Our national debt is out of control, and Americans don’t feel safe in their own communities.
We are providing critical aid to two of our allies fighting wars for their survival, and we must avoid being pulled into a major war ourselves. These aren’t Republican or Democratic challenges. They are American challenges. They affect every one of us, and we need to face them together.
There are enough votes in Congress to solve or at least make headway against every one of these problems. A genuine commitment to legislating would put America on firmer footing for the next 20 years. But the Democratic and Republican machines have no interest in solutions. Instead, they stoke outrage because doing so brings them fame and funding. Today, the business of politics is about monetizing anger and getting paid for it. And business has never been better.
Not for me.
After months of deliberation and long conversations with family, I believe I have accomplished what I set out to do for West Virginia. I have made one of the toughest decisions of my life and decided that I won’t run for re-election to the Senate. I will finish my term while traveling the country and speaking out to see if there is interest in building a movement to mobilize the middle, find common ground and bring Americans together.
Serving the people of West Virginia as a state legislator, secretary of state, governor and U.S. senator has been the honor of my life. I am proud of having worked every day of the past 42 years trying to make things better in the Mountain State.
But this moment in the nation’s history is so filled with peril and political dysfunction that I want to work not only for my beloved West Virginia but for all Americans. Working together, I want to eliminate what is standing in the way of so many obvious and popular solutions. While the Democratic and Republican parties increasingly cater to the extremes, most Americans are moderate, levelheaded folks, and they are plain worn out.
We need to reaffirm that country should always come before party, but there are real structural issues to get there. Today, the incentives in politics reward bad behavior and demand party purity at the expense of problem-solving. Too much money flows to too few candidates, who stay so long in their offices they are no longer responsive to the people. We have primaries that limit who can participate and elections that are almost never competitive anymore. Democracy is supposed to give the people a voice, but Citizens United v. FEC, toxic gerrymandering, closed primaries and the lack of term limits are silencing that voice. It’s time to give power to more people and hold our elected officials more accountable.
I know our country isn’t nearly as divided as Washington wants you to believe. We share common values of family, freedom, democracy, dignity and a belief that we can overcome any challenge together. We want leaders who will fight to unite Americans instead of fighting each other. It isn’t too much to ask for.
LikeLike
This is true, but I have faith they’ll find even more spectacular ways to demonstrate their contempt.
https://x.com/shem_infinite/status/1722597822489341972?s=46&t=vSGsUlnc4rLxcUf7zfUiHg
LikeLike
I’m kind of fascinated by McCarthy here, if he cannot deliver on this then of what value is he to his donors?
https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2023/11/09/congress/house-speaker-gop-mccarthy-seeks-consequences-00126393
Meaning, if he can’t deliver then he has no influence, so why support him anymore.
As Seinfeld said, that’s a big meatball hanging out there.
LikeLike
What is his rationale for thinking that no one should be allowed to want any Speaker other than him?
LikeLike
Friend of mine ran for a county position in Virginia as a Republican candidate and lost in Tuesday’s elections. This was one of her observations which I found interesting:
“We lost solely because of no absentee ballot strategy and a lack of direction from the consultants and the party on it.”
LikeLike
Interesting. Ronna blames candidates listening to consultants and not to her.
I’m assuming she has the job because the corporate donors want her there.
LikeLike
It is inexcusable that the Republicans have refused to use the same tactics the left does.
LikeLike
“no absentee ballot strategy ”
this is inexcusable.
that’s like punting on 3rd down. a complete misunderststanding of how the game is played. you bank votes early and figure out wehre your gaps are. which are filled in election day.
LikeLike
It could be that the R party really is just controlled opposition and they are just running cover for the left.
LikeLike
Full context:
“We held it even during early voting when normally Republicans lose. We also won Election Day and the field from knocking. We can see where we knocked and had higher rates than Youngkin.
We lost solely because of no absentee ballot strategy and a lack of direction from the consultants and the party on it. Abortion and MAGA trickle down effect on the absentee ballot likely with minorities and Democrats who have them.”
LikeLike
I’m assuming that consultants haven’t found a way to make money from organizing absentee ballots harvesting so have it ignored it.
LikeLike