Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Arcanaut
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
Stocks are lower this morning after the 10 year bond yield broke through 5% overnight. Bonds and MBS are down.
The week ahead will have new home sales, Q3 GDP and personal incomes / outlays which contain the PCE inflation index. We don’t have any Fed-speak as we are in the quiet period ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting.
The US government ended the fiscal year with a deficit of $1.7 trillion. That isn’t helping sentiment in the bond market, as rising rates increase the amount of debt the US must sell in order to cover interest payments. This is part of the reason why bonds can’t get out of their own way.
Part of the issue is the “this time is different” mentality in the markets – that the Fed can execute the most dramatic rate hiking cycle in history without triggering a recession.
I suspect we will find that the rules haven’t changed, and we will hit a recession which will be the final nail in this bout of inflation’s coffin.
The relative value of renting versus buying a house has never been more skewed in the favor of renting. The relationship has eclipsed the levels we saw during the residential real estate bubble. The average mortgage payment is 52% higher than the average rent payment.
Going forward, what will bring the relationship back into balance? Falling rates will have to do the job given the scarcity of existing homes for sale. The supply and demand dynamics don’t seem to be there for a bear market in single family homes.
There is a glut of apartment construction however, and many of those projects might have made sense when interest rates were way lower, but won’t now. Apartment cap rates are generally in the mid single-digits and with rates where they are, it will be tough to cover the mortgage along with taxes and maintenance. So I expect to see further pressure on rental rates.
The National Multifamily Housing Council said the apartment market was loose in October. “A combination of rising interest rates and tightening lending standards has caused a decrease in the availability of debt financing for the ninth consecutive quarter,” noted NMHC’s Vice President of Research, Caitlin Sugrue Walter. “Buyers and sellers of apartments, meanwhile, remain unable to agree to terms on pricing, resulting in the sixth consecutive quarter of declining sales volume…Yet, continued softness in the apartment market means that we should expect the shelter component of inflation to come down eventually as well, which could help overall inflation to cool to the Fed’s 2% target and allow the Federal Reserve to start easing policy. Over the longer term, demand for multifamily housing remains strong based on demographic trends and market fundamentals.”
Filed under: Economy |
All Things in Moderation 
I think we can all breathe a sight of relief that this is now cleared up.
https://x.com/ericlevitz/status/1716118168526012839?s=46&t=vSGsUlnc4rLxcUf7zfUiHg
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Lefty eggheads are so strange
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That could be a parody of the left.
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This is good:
https://www.thefp.com/p/the-day-the-delusions-died-konstantin-kisin
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WAPO telling the story others won’t, vestiges of colonialism in the Navajo tribe.
https://x.com/washingtonpost/status/1716748924872983037?s=46&t=vSGsUlnc4rLxcUf7zfUiHg
Telling the stories important to white Liberal wine women.
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oh what a shame
https://twitter.com/cliftonaduncan/status/1716927879735554331/photo/1
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I’ve read this article closely and I cannot determine what crime ABC News think Trump committed nor can I determine what crime Mark Meadows needed immunity from to testify.
https://abcnews.go.com/US/chief-staff-mark-meadows-granted-immunity-tells-special/story?id=104231281
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Its a show trial. It doesn’t have to make sense.
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Imagine – doubting what government officials say, or, and I’m going to shock some of you, outright not believing what government officials say. And then going around contradicting them, these experts.
Is that the crime, to oppose the intergovernmental consensus?
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Brent:
Its a show trial. It doesn’t have to make sense.
Correct, all of these prosecutions are about the show, not the substance.
What is going on down in Georgia right now is indicative. The big media headlines recently have been all about the plea deals entered into by Sydney Powell and Jenna Ellis, and the effect of them “admitting guilt” and “turning” on Trump will have going forward on the case against Trump. They have been heralded as huge wins for the Fulton County prosecutor. But if you look closely at the pleas, there are two notable things that the media brushes past.
First, all of the felonies, the RICO charges, have been dropped. The pleas all involve only admissions to minor misdemeanor charges. So literally nothing that supposedly justified the use against Trump of a law designed to go after Mafia kingpins has been either established or admitted to by anyone. But even more interestingly in my view, the prosecutor has agreed to have them sentenced under “First Offender” guidelines, which allows for a “deferred adjudication” and apparently means that, provided they fulfill the terms of the plea, they will ultimately – this is a quote directly from the deferred adjudication document signed by the judge – “stand completely exonerated of guilt of said offense charged”. That is to say, there will be no official judgement of guilt rendered against them, and the charges will be essentially dismissed. They will, ultimately, stand guilty of nothing whatsoever.
You can see the document and the explanation of it in this video, if you go to the 1:24:00 mark.
This shows pretty clearly to me that the prosecution is entirely about garnering splashy headlines and, quite ironically, interfering in the 2024 election rather than actually prosecuting and punishing those who have been portrayed as having subverted American democracy. It is all a complete joke undertaken for the media and propaganda value.
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