Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Arcanaut
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
Stocks are higher as we await the Fed decision at 2:00 pm. Bonds and MBS are up.
Fed-whisperer Nick Timaros of the WSJ discussed what to look for in the Fed decision today. While no increase is expected at this meeting, the big question will be the dot plot for this year and next. Timaros believes it is possible that the dot plot will still predict one more rate hike this year, however fewer members will lean that way.
It is easier for the Fed to signal one more rate hike and fail to deliver than it would be for the Fed to send the all-clear signal and then raise rates. The other big question will be how many rate cuts the dot plot signals for next year. The dot plot from June is below:
The June plot sees one more rate hike this year, and then about 100 basis points in cuts in 2024.
Mortgage Applications rose 5.4% last week as purchases 2% and refis increased 15%. “Mortgage applications increased last week, despite the 30-year fixed mortgage rate edging back up to 7.31 percent – its highest level in four weeks,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Purchase applications increased for conventional and FHA loans over the week but remained 26 percent lower than the same week a year ago, as homebuyers continue to face higher rates and limited for-sale inventory, which have made purchase conditions more challenging. Refinance applications also increased last week but are still almost 30 percent lower than the same week last year.”
Separately, Joel Kan expects mortgage rates to fall into the 6% range by the end of the year and into the 5% range in 2024. I agree with him and I believe the driver is going to be a decline in interest rate volatility which will positively impact MBS spreads. Below is a chart of the Bank of America / ICE bond market volatility index (MOVE) and you can see it jumped in early 2022 which coincided with the Fed’s liftoff. Uncertainty over Fed policy is a driver of volatility, and volatility is probably the biggest driver of MBS prices as it drives convexity forecasts.
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Filed under: Economy |
All Things in Moderation 
I just heard a great line: The Constitution is not perfect, but it is a lot better than what we have now.
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Great piece by Glen on Yoel Roth
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A commission- problem solved.
https://x.com/jakesherman/status/1704610093654778211?s=46&t=vSGsUlnc4rLxcUf7zfUiHg
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The Republicans are back to being the tax collectors for the welfare state.
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LOL which Welfare State…………….?
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The one at the top of the food chain or the one at the bottom?
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both
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At least you seem to agree that the top of the food chain has some unique advantages The rest of us are kind of fucked TBH!
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The top of the food chain votes solidly (D).
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Really? I guess you still believe in the “deep state”? What about the reality of contributions?
https://www.opensecrets.org/elections-overview/biggest-donors?cycle=2020&view=fc
Obviously both sides have their fundraising, get out the vote etc networks. The only party trying to limit the vote and women’s rights seems to be the R’s. Good luck with that!
Electing an indicted flawed man to the highest office in the land doesn’t bode well for the country.
Whatever Biden’s deep state creds are seem to evaporate when he just gets shit done.
As an Independent……………..I have zero choice but to vote against the crazy right wing autocratic party……………I don’t love the Biden/Harris ticket but the alternatives are all worse so I’m stuck with the partner I have and brought to the dance.
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…I don’t love the Biden/Harris ticket
Doesn’t he “get shit done?”
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He gets “not being Trump” done. Sort of. Although frankly he has most of Trump’s
Flaws, just a different flavor, and few of Trump’s virtues.
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lms:
The only party trying to limit the vote and women’s rights seems to be the R’s.
You really are a caricature, lms.
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Republicans are trying to limit the vote, so that’s true, to people legal entitled to vote, and real, living people.
So while true the Democrats are not trying to limit the vote to legal citizens or real people, I don’t think that’s a positive.
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It doesn’t matter who the head of the Borg is. They are all interchangeable.
Breshnev vs Kutsenov.
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Stalin or Beria?
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My understanding is that if they don’t pass the regular appropriations bills there’s an automatic spending cut. Seems to be the best option at this point.
https://rollcall.com/2023/07/07/automatic-spending-cuts-would-threaten-infrastructure-funding/
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I was wondering about that. I’m guessing McCarthy and the uniparty will figure out a way around that.
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“Infrastructure funding”. Like more money for Headstart and government paid childcare?
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Interesting read:
“America’s New Politics of Nothing
Ryan Zickgraf”
https://compactmag.com/article/america-s-new-politics-of-nothing
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Lotta wishful thinking in that piece
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“Look, everything’s on the table for me,” Paxton replied. “Now that I’ve been through this and I’ve seen how guys like John Cornyn have represented the state of Texas — and not represented us — I think it’s time somebody needs to step up and run against this guy that will do the job and do it the right way and represent us and worry about what’s going on at the border.”
This is not an idle threat as Paxton is pretty popular and Cornyn is not.
https://redstate.com/jeffc/2023/09/21/ken-paxton-hints-at-future-political-aspirations-after-surviving-impeachment-everythings-on-the-table-n2164139
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Plenty more when this came from!
https://www.axios.com/2023/09/21/zelensky-washington-dc-biden-mccarthy-congress
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If she handles this as well as she did illegal immigration then I’m excited for the results.
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/09/21/kamala-harris-lead-office-gun-violence-prevention-00117497
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Did he walk there?
https://x.com/gavinnewsom/status/1704929409470501204?s=46&t=vSGsUlnc4rLxcUf7zfUiHg
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