Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Arcanaut
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
Stocks are lower this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are down.
Mortgage applications fell 5% as purchases and refis fell by the same amount. “Mortgage applications declined to the lowest level since December 1996, despite a drop in mortgage rates. Both purchase and refinance applications fell, with the purchase index hitting a 28-year low, as prospective buyers remain on the sidelines due to low housing inventory and elevated mortgage rates,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “The 30-year fixed mortgage rate decreased to 7.21 percent last week, but rates remained more than a full percentage point higher than a year ago, despite mixed data on the health of the economy and signs of a cooling job market. The refinance index dropped to its lowest level since January 2023, driven by a 6 percent decline in conventional refinances.”
Widening MBS spreads aren’t helping things, as the difference between the 30 year fixed rate and the 10 year (which is a decent enough proxy for MBS spreads) is sitting at close to record levels. The chart below goes back to 1990. Know what sticks out to me? The era of QE. Did QE make that big of a difference in MBS spreads? It is debatable. So if QE didn’t affect things all that much than why would people fret so much about QT?
It looks like there is a mean reversion element to MBS spreads, which means this too shall pass.
The services economy slowed sharply in August according to the S&P Services PMI. The index fell from 52.5 to 50.5, which means the services economy is more or less static. Note the manufacturing economy has been in contraction for almost a year.
“The survey data send a hint of rising stagflation risks, as stubborn price pressures are accompanied by a near-stalling of business activity. The PMI numbers for the third quarter so far point to a faltering of economic growth after a robust second quarter, as a renewed manufacturing downturn is accompanied by a deteriorating picture in the service sector.”
The ISM Services PMI paints a brighter picture, showing the services economy expanded in August. New orders, employment, and activity all increased. That said, we saw a big jump in inventories and a big decrease in backlog, which suggests slower growth ahead. Pricing pressures increased again based on higher energy and transportation costs.
Student loan repayments are about to resume, and that should have a negative impact on services.
Filed under: Economy |
All Things in Moderation 
Here they go.
Regardless of the merits of the case, I’m interested in how they have standing to get Trump removed from the Republican primary ballot since presumably that’s a party matter.
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I’ve no doubt there is enough Democrat judges to keep it alive until after the election (in which his name will not be allowed on the ballot) and SCOTUS will then judge it Unconstitutional.
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that’s probably the game plan
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If SCOTUS finds it unconstitutional, and they had already done it, would that require redoing the election?
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You sweet, sweet child!
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Its Calvinball – there is no point in assuming there is some good-faith argument going on.
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It’s funny to me that the Republican establishment is doing the “eat me last” strategy. It’s unilateral disarmament. Meanwhile Enrique Tarrio is sentenced to 22 years. The base is furious and being completely ignored. Does not bode well for stability and it’s going to be impossible to keep a lid on it.
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The double standard between catch and release with the BLM riots and this is striking.
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Also, the lack of anybody getting arrested for lefties storming the capital about abortion or climate change (Code Pink). They are basically invited in, “occupy” some offices of usually friendly congresscritters, get some press, complain, leave, no one gets shot, no one goes to jail, press covers it like some friends were doing a little tour of the rotunda and away it goes. In no case that I’m aware of did protesting inside the capitol AND seeking to overturn an election coincide with lefties, but they have definitely done both things separately.
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In that it matches the universal double-standard where anything the left does is acceptable and everything the right does is criminal?
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I wonder if this can be used to keep Trump off, say, the primary ballots in Florida. 😉
Not to mention, Biden. I mean, at this point, why not? If all we really have to do is make an argument to satisfy ourselves and everyone who agrees with us, then I feel Biden is too corrupt to be eligible for office, I feel he didn’t honor his oath of office and hasn’t, so while he should have been impeached already that hasn’t happened but we should just strike his name from the ballots in Florida, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, Texas, Kentucky probably, South Carolina . . .
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That it is not happening is very telling.
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