Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
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markinaustin
Arcanaut
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quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
Stocks are higher this morning as the world’s central bankers head to Jackson Hole. Bonds and MBS are flat.
The upcoming week will be dominated by the Jackson Hole Summit. The two main topics will probably be China’s collapsing real estate bubble and the surprising strength of the US economy. Jerome Powell will speak on Friday.
As far as economic data, we will get existing home sales, new home sales and consumer sentiment.
Jackson Hole summits generally don’t include much in the way of market-moving data, however the long timespan between the July and September FOMC meetings will have investors looking for clues. The general consensus from Street strategists is that Powell’s posture will remain hawkish although he might focus more on dissuading investors from pricing in rate cuts next year than signaling further increases this year.
The 10 year bond yield has picked up 36 basis points since the end of July. Meanwhile, the 2s/10s spread remains highly inverted, although the yield curve has shed some of its inversion, increasing from – 91 bps to -66 bps. Still, on a historical basis the 2s/10s spread is at levels last seen during the early 1980s when Paul Volcker tightened aggressively to conquer 1970s inflation.
I still think the reason for the economy’s resilience in the face of Fed hikes is that even though the Fed began tightening in 2022, real (inflation-adjusted) interest rates didn’t turn positive until the end of the 2022. Even though the Fed was bumping up short term rates, they were still negative, and negative real interest rates are stimulative. In other words, the Fed was still giving the patient shots of adrenaline, just at smaller doses.
In fact, if you look at the Fed Funds rate minus the sticky CPI (ex-food and energy), real interest rates are still negative.
Monetary policy is tight compared to the era of zero percent interest rates, but historically it is still stimulative. The Goldilocks scenario is that inflation returns to normal, and that is possible given the situation in China which is echoing Hemingway’s about going bankrupt gradually then suddenly. The bursting real estate bubble will sap global aggregate demand, and that should be the final nail in COVID-flation.
I think the elephant in the room at Jackson Hole will be China, not US inflation and the concern will be Western banking exposure to a collapsing Chinese real estate market. What will happen to big banks like HSBC, Standard Chartered, Nomura, etc? That will make Silicon Valley Bank look like a tempest in a tea pot.
Filed under: Economy |
All Things in Moderation 
Headline of this op-ed reminds me of Otter’s speech in Animal House:
“Opinion
Carlos Lozada
The Trump Indictments Are an Indictment of America
Aug. 21, 2023”
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0077975/characters/nm0001513
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It reminds me of the “Trump Lies” list that, I think, WaPo was keeping? It’s just anti-Trump porn, trying to shovel out a list of everything they think Bad Orange Man has done into one article, so NYT readers can pleasure themselves.
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This is good
https://babylonbee.com/news/weak-hurricane-hilary-performance-blamed-on-russian-interference
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LOl!
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“At publishing time, California’s DA had announced a new indictment of Donald Trump for the floods and mudslides.”
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OMG!
When they were finally allowed to go to their house two days later, they found the body of their 14-year-old son, hugging the family’s dead dog. He was just days away from celebrating his 15th birthday.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/lahaina-wildfire-victims-children-hawaii-governor-josh-green-maui/
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There is just no good reason for a defense attorney to review all the evidence.
https://x.com/techno_fog/status/1693705266628378927?s=46&t=vSGsUlnc4rLxcUf7zfUiHg
It’s a conspiracy theory to even think that.
And a felony in Georgia.
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What’s the response to that? They just have to do it and then could they appeal on the grounds the trial was unfair because they weren’t allowed to review what they needed to?
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I suspect the Judge will agree with the prosecution.
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I have to admit that watching how the justice system has operated with regard to Trump has been a genuine revelation to me. I will never trust anything a prosecutor says ever again. If this is the shit they do to someone like Trump, imagine what they are doing to people with no access to power or publicity.
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It is quite revealing and yet another service Trump has provided the country.
For me, it was the Randy Weaver event and trial that relieved me of some of my false consciousness. Then the Ted Stevens case rid me of the rest of it.
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Indeed. the past 7 years have blackpilled me about our institutions.
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It would be ironic if NIMBYism and not law enforcement ended that sweet, sweet California sensimilla.
https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:mywSlt-5CYQJ:https://www.sfgate.com/cannabis/article/humboldt-county-initiative-cannabis-farms-18299312.php
My money’s on NIMBYism.
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