Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Arcanaut
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
Stocks are higher this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are up small.
China has slipped into deflation, which will almost certainly affect developed economies and their fight against inflation. Their consumer price index fell 0.3% year-over-year in July, and their producer price index was down even more.
China has a big issue with its real estate market and another property developer – Country Garden – just missed a payment on its dollar bonds. Country Garden joins Evergrande in the list of troubled property developers. China seems to be following the familiar pattern where a period of supernormal growth triggers a real estate bubble, similar to the US in the early 20th century and Japan in the 70s and 80s. That bubble has burst, and China is grappling with a massive oversupply of property, along with vacant cities built on spec.
The impact on the US will probably be relatively benign. China will probably try and export their way out of the problem, and since their domestic demand is moribund they will run a massive trade surplus. That means China will buy US Treasuries and MBS instead of US goods and services which will help push down rates in the US.
This will take years to play out, but the massive deflationary pulse out of Asia probably isn’t done yet.
Mortgage credit availability slipped in July, according to the MBA. “Mortgage credit availability declined to its lowest level since 2013, as lenders pulled back on underutilized loan programs and as liquidity concerns remain for some jumbo lenders,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Declining origination volumes have led to lower profitability for many lenders, resulting in narrower loan product offerings to reduce operational costs. One key driver of this month’s decline was a drop in cash-out refinance loan programs. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 6.94 percent in July, more than a percentage point higher than July 2022, and this has significantly discouraged cash-out refinance activity, as borrowers turn to home equity and consumer loans instead. The jumbo index fell for the third straight month, as jumbo lenders further reduce the number of available loan programs.”
United Wholesale reported second quarter earnings that beat the street, with origination volume climbing to $31.8 billion, which was up 43% compared to the first quarter and up 6.4% compared to a year ago. Gain on sale margin compressed to 88 basis points in Q2 compared to 92 in Q1 and 99 a year ago. Purchase volume was 88% of total volume.
UWM is guiding for third quarter volume to come in between $26 and $33 billion, and gain on sale to range between 75 and 100 basis points. The stock is up about 7% pre-open.
Adjusted earnings per share came in at $0.11, which covers the $0.10 dividend. At current levels, the stock has a dividend yield of 6%.
Filed under: Economy |
All Things in Moderation 
Looks like Ohio voters agree with Kansas voters from earlier elections. Abortion is a losing issue for Republicans even in Red states.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/this-analysis-shows-which-voters-rejected-ohios-issue-1-measure
advance votes, which are cast by mail or in-person before Election Day, broke heavily for No, about 70 percent to 30 percent. More than 700,000 votes were cast before Election Day.
The No side also appeared to narrowly lead among voters who cast their ballots on Election Day. That, in addition to the lopsided result in the advance vote, created a lead that the Yes side could not overcome.
The size of the vote lead for the No side indicates that a sizable number of Republicans voted against the measure. The No side was comfortably ahead in areas that Donald Trump carried narrowly in the 2020 presidential election. Although Yes led in areas Trump won by greater margins in 2020, it fell far short of Trump’s performance in nearly every county in the state. No votes had an overwhelming lead in areas Joe Biden won in 2020, as expected.
LikeLike
You must feel foolish, then, being so wrong all these years.
LikeLike
So it turns out red states aren’t filled with anti-abortion troglodytes trying to control women’s bodies and keep all the ladies barefoot and pregnant. Who knew??
LikeLike
I agree that when put to a vote as a binary proposition (banning or not banning abortion), the issue favors the Democrats. It’s probably their best “cultural” issue to run on. However, as noted elsewhere they have a lot of other baggage:
https://www.liberalpatriot.com/p/brahmin-left-vs-populist-right
LikeLike
jnc:
I agree that when put to a vote as a binary proposition (banning or not banning abortion), the issue favors the Democrats.
But, as your link indicates, the issue is not a binary one. Even lms used to claim to have a moderate position, favoring some time restrictions. Now that Doobs has returned the issue to voters, self proclaimed moderates can finally put their money where there mouth is. Will they vote for some moderate time restrictions, or will they continue to support the radical Dem policy of unrestricted access to killing of the unborn right up to and including crowning?
LikeLike
I ask this honestly not knowing, where is unrestricted abortion on the ballot? California maybe? Most issues I’m hearing about where “abortion is victorious” is about pretty strict abortion bans going down, nothing putting the left’s unlimited abortion to the test.
The media seems to be gloating that 100% bans or 6 week bans aren’t universally popular but haven’t really seen elective abortion on demand up until birth put to the test yet.
The reality is, like it or not, most Republicans are not for a no-exceptions total abortion ban and haven’t been. If all the Republicans in Florida had to recommend them was their six week ban they wouldn’t be in power. At the same time, most people aren’t for elective lifestyle abortions up until and during labor, and not everybody left of center is blind to the “nobody advocates that ever and also during-birth-abortions are a moral virtue” gaslighting.
LikeLike
KW:
where is unrestricted abortion on the ballot?
California’ proposition 1, a referendum to change the California state constitution, read as follows:
SEC. 1.1. The state shall not deny or interfere with an individual’s reproductive freedom in their most intimate decisions, which includes their fundamental right to choose to have an abortion and their fundamental right to choose or refuse contraceptives.
There is no mention of a time restriction on this “fundamental right to choose to have an abortion”.
https://ballotpedia.org/California_Proposition_1,_Right_to_Reproductive_Freedom_Amendment_(2022)#Text_of_measure
(I wonder how lms voted?!?)
But in fact unrestricted abortion doesn’t need to be on any ballot in order to be policy. It is automatically the default policy and will exist unless a state legislature or a voter referendum proactively imposes restrictions. As I have said many times in the past, you don’t pass laws to make things legal. You pass laws to make them illegal.
Aside from that, abortion laws can and do play the same semantic game that was played with Roe, by seemingly imposing post-viability restrictions, but allowing for “health of the mother” exceptions in which “health” includes mental health, which effectively allows late term abortions simply by having the abortionist declare that the mother’s mental health will suffer without it.
That the Dem party policy is for unrestricted access to abortion throughout all of pregnancy isn’t exactly a secret. Just watch how their own congressional witnesses answer – or rather work extra hard not to answer – the simple question “Do you support any restrictions at all on the right to get an abortion?” (You only have to bother with the first minute.)
The reality is, like it or not, most Republicans are not for a no-exceptions total abortion ban and haven’t been.
I know. This has been obvious to me for a long time. Back during the heyday of ATiM when we had our various big dustups over abortion, I repeatedly told lms that, if/when Roe was overturned, many states might narrow the window in which abortion was legal, but most states would continue to maintain access to abortion for some period of time. She never believed me, but now that it is proving to be true she acts like somehow her position has been vindicated rather than admitting that she was wrong for all those years. Go figure.
At the same time, most people aren’t for elective lifestyle abortions up until and during labor…
I would guess that is true, most people are not. But most Democrats and feminist progressives are, even if they aren’t willing to say so explicitly. If you doubt it, just ask them what restrictions they are willing to support. You will get the same evasions and refusals to answer that the Dem witnesses provided in the video above.
LikeLike
If the left had their way, they would sue the Vatican to force the Church to make abortion a sacrament.
LikeLike
Sure, why not?
https://redstate.com/bonchie/2023/08/10/joe-biden-wants-congress-to-allocate-another-13-billion-for-ukraine-n790567
Let’s send them some nukes, while we’re at it.
LikeLike
It’s good we’re so worried about Ukraine, it’s not like we have anything else to worry about.
Not that I’d want the current folks in power trying to address anything else, either.
LikeLike
Lol!
https://www.offthepress.com/no-joke-oregon-secstate-bars-republicans-from-running-for-re-election/
Clever.
LikeLike
Eastern Oregon should just secede and join Idaho.
LikeLike
There was a ballot measure that passed saying if they are absent more than ten times they wouldn’t be eligible for reelection. They did it presumably knowing this would happen. Or am I missing something?
LikeLike
Yup, that’s the case. Don’t do the crime if you can’t do the time. Luckily, these laws never come back to bite you.
LikeLike
Well if Republicans did it it would be racist, and the return of Jim Crow, so they can’t.
LikeLike
Presumably Texas can do the same thing to Democrats.
In which case it’s fascism of course.
LikeLike