Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Arcanaut
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
Stocks are lower this morning as investors fret about a potential slowdown. Bonds and MBS are up.
US businesses continued to expand in May, albeit at a slower pace, according to the S&P flash PMI. Manufacturing is in a contraction, while services are still expanding. Inflationary conditions continue to ease, with with firms increasing prices at the slowest pace since October 2020. Manufacturers are cutting prices to boost sales, while services price increases appeared to have recently peaked.
The Index of Leading Economic Indicators declined again in May, signaling that a recession is in the cards. “The US LEI continued to fall in May as a result of deterioration in the gauges of consumer expectations for business conditions, ISM® New Orders Index, a negative yield spread, and worsening credit conditions,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “The US Leading Index has declined in each of the last fourteen months and continues to point to weaker economic activity ahead. Rising interest rates paired with persistent inflation will continue to further dampen economic activity. While we revised our Q2 GDP forecast from negative to slight growth, we project that the US economy will contract over the Q3 2023 to Q1 2024 period. The recession likely will be due to continued tightness in monetary policy and lower government spending.” The index has been emitting a recession signal for the past six months or so.
The yield curve continues to invert, with the 2s-10s trading close to -100 basis points. An inverted yield curve is generally a recessionary signal. The inversion is worse than the 2020 recession and the Great Recession. The last time we were at these levels was in the early 1980s when Paul Volcker instituted his drastic Fed tightening to break the back of 1970s inflation:
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Filed under: Economy |
All Things in Moderation 
Scott, when they say it, it’s a conspiracy theory.
When we say it, it’s calling attention to a legitimate vulnerability.
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/06/23/brad-raffensperger-georgia-dominion-voting-00103298
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Generally, I’m going to agree with Politico’s thrust here, in that Raffensperger was right, the likelihood of the 2020 election being thrown by hacking was very, very small, and there was no real evidence for it, per se. But that he’s wrong that none of what is wrong needs to be fixed now or in the future. There are so many reasons that is wrong, not the least of which is opening the door for more “election denial” from whoever loses. So, yes, everything they are citing probably needs to be reviewed and likely addressed in some fashion. “Eh, it’s no big deal,” is not a responsible response. I’d trust actual cyber-security gurus here (not that they aren’t vulnerable to error like any other expert class) over the political appointee.
That said, Politico in covering this feels like they have another agenda, like laying the ground work for objecting to any Republican victories in Georgia in the future.
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This was pretty funny:
““If the PhDs don’t like being put in the same category as the Pillow salesman, tough noogies. They should stop saying similar things.””
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jnc:
Only now, Brad Raffensperger — the Republican who once stood up to Donald Trump’s election fraud lies — is the one security experts see as the problem.
“Security experts”. Heh.
Also, of course, “election fraud lies”. Such objective journalism!
These people are a joke.
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> Also, of course, “election fraud lies”. Such objective journalism!
Even pretending to have some standards of objectivity is over with. Now, they just need to do what they used to do and name themselves better for clarity. WaPo should be renamed “The DC Deep State Observer”, New York Times can just be “The New York Democrat”. NY Post becomes either the NY Republican or NY Independent. CNN officially changes its name to the Clinton News Network. And so on.
But nothing has ever alienated me as much from the “news” sources than the post 2016 “beat you over the head” editorializing. They took Al Franken’s book on Fox News–with it’s Lying Liars Who Lie titling–as a writing guide.
This is irksome to read, to me, even if I agree with the sentiment. Unless there is a gag in the insult, constantly saying, “Proven Liar, Donald Trump, has once again lied about the 2016 election, saying that–although he lost and everyone agrees he lost and also that he’s fat and orange–he did not in fact lose the election, the way everybody knows he did, because he’s a liar. Sources close to Trump say he knows he’s lying, has told them he knows he’s lying about the whole thing, and also smells bad. In other news, Republicans–who experts now say can find their roots in the Nazi party, and are in fact practicing Nazi tactics in their governance–” . . .
I’m exaggerating for effect but not by much.
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Worth a read:
“The Elite War on Free Thought
Address at Free Speech Event in London, with Russell Brand and Michael Shellenberger
Matt Taibbi
Jun 23, 2023”
https://www.racket.news/p/the-elite-war-on-free-thought
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It was a good read.
I did not have Shellenberger, Taibbi, and Russell Brand teaming up to fight censorship on my 2023 Bingo card, alas.
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Trump will also issue all kindergartners live grenades and have armed monkeys patrol the streets enforcing sharia law.
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While that would make me more likely to vote for him, I’m not sure it’s enough at this point.
Also: If Trump is elected, he will never leave office. He will seek to have the Constitution changed to permit more than 2 terms. And will claim victory in all new elections.
YEah, that works so well in 2020. Also “see to have the Constitution changed” — uh huh. What does that involve? Weissmann knows that’s impossible, so he’s just throwing out bullshit on purpose to be a dick or stir the pot or whatever. And let’s say it happened–Trump is going to last more than a third term?
Also, Hero of the Republic FDR had like 4 terms and that was fine.
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Just don’t call it a political prosecution.
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It’s become so commonplace that no one even thinks about it anymore, but whomever these “anonymous U.S. officials” are, one would presume that they are leaking information at least as classified as anything Trump took with him, or for that matter the Airman who was arrested because of the leaks to Discord.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/06/24/us-intelligence-prigozhin-putin/
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I’ve really lost my interest in news stories sourced by anonymous sources, unless it’s some behind-the-scenes stuff at Disney or Warner Brothers or such. And that’s just entertainment value.
Rarely do anonymous sources or “sources close to the matter” come off, to me, as doing anything but trying to manipulate the narrative.
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That Patriot Front = Feds is lost on him is amazing and hilarious.
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Well either he’s entirely aware of it but continuing the narrative because, like so many in DC, he sees that as “his real job”. Or it is lost on him because, lets be honest, a lot of politicians are neither engaged or all that smart, and mostly have their jobs because of who daddy is/was, or because, like an idiot savant, they are good at running campaigns and getting elected but at very little else.
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No other country has held elections during war, so who can blame him.
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In order to preserve democracy, we must not have elections!
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Exactly. Otherwise, the people might elect someone undemocratic. Age old problem.
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